Comments on: Fixing the Milwaukee Brewers Pitching for 2011 http://reviewingthebrew.com/2010/11/08/fixing-the-milwaukee-brewers-pitching-for-2011/ A Milwaukee Brewers Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More Mon, 25 Mar 2013 20:51:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4.1 By: warboss74 http://reviewingthebrew.com/2010/11/08/fixing-the-milwaukee-brewers-pitching-for-2011/comment-page-1/#comment-313 warboss74 Tue, 09 Nov 2010 15:05:22 +0000 http://reviewingthebrew.com/?p=805#comment-313 IF (roughly $9 M) Evan Longoria $2 M Jason Bartlett ARB ($6 M) Sean Rodriguez $0.4 M Reid Brignac $0.4 M Willy Aybar ARB ($1.5 M)* OF (Roughly $11 M) B.J. Upton ARB ($5 M) Desmond Jennings $0.4 M Ben Zobrist $4.5 M Matt Joyce $0.4 M Catcher (roughly $3.5 M) Kelly Shoppach $3 M John Jaso $0.4 M Dioner Navarro ARB ($3 M)* SP (roughly $15 M) James Shields $4.25 M Matt Garza ARB ($6 M) David Price $2.2 M Jeff Niemann $1 M Wade Davis $0.4 M Jeremy Hellickson $0.4 M RP (roughly $6 M) J.P. Howell ARB $2 M Lance Cormier ARB $2 M Andy Sonnanstine ARB $1 M Mike Ekstrom $0.4 M Jake McGee $0.4 M *Non-Tender candidates They've got roughly $45 M committed after arbitration. They're not going to be able to work Fielder into the payroll. Even if they were, they've said they're not trading for big name rentals. IF (roughly $9 M)
Evan Longoria $2 M
Jason Bartlett ARB ($6 M)
Sean Rodriguez $0.4 M
Reid Brignac $0.4 M
Willy Aybar ARB ($1.5 M)*

OF (Roughly $11 M)
B.J. Upton ARB ($5 M)
Desmond Jennings $0.4 M
Ben Zobrist $4.5 M
Matt Joyce $0.4 M

Catcher (roughly $3.5 M)
Kelly Shoppach $3 M
John Jaso $0.4 M
Dioner Navarro ARB ($3 M)*

SP (roughly $15 M)
James Shields $4.25 M
Matt Garza ARB ($6 M)
David Price $2.2 M
Jeff Niemann $1 M
Wade Davis $0.4 M
Jeremy Hellickson $0.4 M

RP (roughly $6 M)
J.P. Howell ARB $2 M
Lance Cormier ARB $2 M
Andy Sonnanstine ARB $1 M
Mike Ekstrom $0.4 M
Jake McGee $0.4 M

*Non-Tender candidates

They’ve got roughly $45 M committed after arbitration. They’re not going to be able to work Fielder into the payroll. Even if they were, they’ve said they’re not trading for big name rentals.

]]> By: Jesse Motiff http://reviewingthebrew.com/2010/11/08/fixing-the-milwaukee-brewers-pitching-for-2011/comment-page-1/#comment-312 Jesse Motiff Tue, 09 Nov 2010 02:51:08 +0000 http://reviewingthebrew.com/?p=805#comment-312 I like a lot of the names you had on your list in the other post, but only if most of those guys would be the fifth starter. Guys like Webb, Penny, and Wang have great upside, but have huge injury concerns. I really would like de la Rosa back in Milwaukee, but I'm not sure Melvin will be willing to spend what it takes to bring him back here. I like a lot of the names you had on your list in the other post, but only if most of those guys would be the fifth starter. Guys like Webb, Penny, and Wang have great upside, but have huge injury concerns. I really would like de la Rosa back in Milwaukee, but I’m not sure Melvin will be willing to spend what it takes to bring him back here.

]]> By: Jesse Motiff http://reviewingthebrew.com/2010/11/08/fixing-the-milwaukee-brewers-pitching-for-2011/comment-page-1/#comment-311 Jesse Motiff Tue, 09 Nov 2010 02:31:22 +0000 http://reviewingthebrew.com/?p=805#comment-311 Sure, the Rays are cutting a TON of payroll just by letting Crawford, Pena, and Soriano leave. Not counting arby raises, they only have $12 million in payroll for next year. Even if they cut payroll by $20 million, that'd leave them with a payroll of a little over $50 million. They could easily put in Prince and his $15 million in there and still come out around $50 million, and they'd have another big bat in the middle of the lineup they were lacking against the Rangers. Sure, the Rays are cutting a TON of payroll just by letting Crawford, Pena, and Soriano leave. Not counting arby raises, they only have $12 million in payroll for next year. Even if they cut payroll by $20 million, that’d leave them with a payroll of a little over $50 million. They could easily put in Prince and his $15 million in there and still come out around $50 million, and they’d have another big bat in the middle of the lineup they were lacking against the Rangers.

]]> By: warboss74 http://reviewingthebrew.com/2010/11/08/fixing-the-milwaukee-brewers-pitching-for-2011/comment-page-1/#comment-310 warboss74 Tue, 09 Nov 2010 00:32:48 +0000 http://reviewingthebrew.com/?p=805#comment-310 I forgot to add that the Rays aren't trading for Fielder. They're cutting payroll this offseason. I forgot to add that the Rays aren’t trading for Fielder. They’re cutting payroll this offseason.

]]> By: warboss74 http://reviewingthebrew.com/2010/11/08/fixing-the-milwaukee-brewers-pitching-for-2011/comment-page-1/#comment-309 warboss74 Tue, 09 Nov 2010 00:31:38 +0000 http://reviewingthebrew.com/?p=805#comment-309 A couple things to point out about your article. 1) You're forgetting that Yovani Gallardo only made 4 starts in the 2008 season, and Manny Parra was coming off of a very strong rookie campaign. (3.95 xFIP) The thought process was that a full season of Gallardo, improvement from Manny Parra, plus the offense rebounding would keep the Brewers in the 85-90 win range. (Prince, Braun, and Hart performed significantly worse than 2007) We know now that Parra wasn't able to maintain the level production of his rookie campaign, Dave Bush got hurt, and Braden Looper went from a #3 in 2008 to a 4/5 starter in 2009. What I think is often overlooked is how poor our defense was in 2009 compared to 2008. Bill Hall couldn't hit enough to keep his glove on the field, and we suffered significantly with McGehee's defense at 3B. Hardy's bat kept his elite glove off the field as well. Hart and Braun got worse defensively, and we didn't take advantage of the defender we had on the bench in Jody Gerut. Many of the defensive holes that popped up in 2009 weren't addressed in the offseason, and that certainly hurt the pitching improvements Melvin did make. It's questionable whether or not we'll be able to upgrade the pitching enough to over come the poor defense. 2) Dan Hudson was traded to the Diamondbacks for Edwin Jackson at the deadline. 3) Jonathan Sanchez would be an extremely poor return for Prince Fielder. He's a similar pitcher to Manny Parra. Where Manny Parra has struggled with a .350 BABIP against, Jonathan Sanchez had an unsustainable .262 BABIP. He's also more of a FB than Parra, which likely won't translate well in Miller Park. Parra has a career 4.16 xFIP compared to Sanchez' career 4.23 xFIP. 4) From first to last, these are the pitchers I believe the Brewers should target on the FA market. Hiroki Kuroda Jorge De la Rosa Chien-Ming Wang Brad Penny Brandon Webb Kevin Correia Jeff Francis Sergio Mitre 5) I'd look to trade McGehee in addition to Fielder for a couple of reasons. i. I don't believe in his newfound power surge. Isolated Slugging in the minors .119, .133, .125, .126, .143, .133 Isolated Slugging in Milwaukee .198, .179 HR% in the minors 1.2%, 2.0%, 1.6%, 2.0%, 2.1%, 2.2% HR% in the minors 4.5%, 3.4% ii. He's a bad defender at 3B, so if/when his power regresses he'll quickly lose value. (Think Jorge Cantu) iii. The market is weak for 3B, and there are several teams in need of a bat at 3B. (Oakland, Toronto, Atlanta, LAD, LAA, Florida, etc.) I'd extend Weeks, move Lawrie to 3B in the minors, and acquire a guy like Jed Lowrie, Juan Uribe, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Akinori Iwamura to man it until Lawrie is ready. A couple things to point out about your article.

1) You’re forgetting that Yovani Gallardo only made 4 starts in the 2008 season, and Manny Parra was coming off of a very strong rookie campaign. (3.95 xFIP) The thought process was that a full season of Gallardo, improvement from Manny Parra, plus the offense rebounding would keep the Brewers in the 85-90 win range. (Prince, Braun, and Hart performed significantly worse than 2007)

We know now that Parra wasn’t able to maintain the level production of his rookie campaign, Dave Bush got hurt, and Braden Looper went from a #3 in 2008 to a 4/5 starter in 2009. What I think is often overlooked is how poor our defense was in 2009 compared to 2008. Bill Hall couldn’t hit enough to keep his glove on the field, and we suffered significantly with McGehee’s defense at 3B. Hardy’s bat kept his elite glove off the field as well. Hart and Braun got worse defensively, and we didn’t take advantage of the defender we had on the bench in Jody Gerut.

Many of the defensive holes that popped up in 2009 weren’t addressed in the offseason, and that certainly hurt the pitching improvements Melvin did make. It’s questionable whether or not we’ll be able to upgrade the pitching enough to over come the poor defense.

2) Dan Hudson was traded to the Diamondbacks for Edwin Jackson at the deadline.

3) Jonathan Sanchez would be an extremely poor return for Prince Fielder. He’s a similar pitcher to Manny Parra. Where Manny Parra has struggled with a .350 BABIP against, Jonathan Sanchez had an unsustainable .262 BABIP. He’s also more of a FB than Parra, which likely won’t translate well in Miller Park. Parra has a career 4.16 xFIP compared to Sanchez’ career 4.23 xFIP.

4) From first to last, these are the pitchers I believe the Brewers should target on the FA market.

Hiroki Kuroda
Jorge De la Rosa
Chien-Ming Wang
Brad Penny
Brandon Webb
Kevin Correia
Jeff Francis
Sergio Mitre

5) I’d look to trade McGehee in addition to Fielder for a couple of reasons.
i. I don’t believe in his newfound power surge.

Isolated Slugging in the minors .119, .133, .125, .126, .143, .133
Isolated Slugging in Milwaukee .198, .179

HR% in the minors 1.2%, 2.0%, 1.6%, 2.0%, 2.1%, 2.2%
HR% in the minors 4.5%, 3.4%

ii. He’s a bad defender at 3B, so if/when his power regresses he’ll quickly lose value. (Think Jorge Cantu)

iii. The market is weak for 3B, and there are several teams in need of a bat at 3B. (Oakland, Toronto, Atlanta, LAD, LAA, Florida, etc.)

I’d extend Weeks, move Lawrie to 3B in the minors, and acquire a guy like Jed Lowrie, Juan Uribe, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Akinori Iwamura to man it until Lawrie is ready.

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