Oct 11, 2012; Washington, DC, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Lohse (26) throws during the sixth inning of game four of the 2012 NLDS against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Okay. The Brewers have a flair for the dramatic. We all get that, and we all saw it coming from a mile away. It had to happen eventually

Doug Melvin, Mark Attanasio, and the rest of the Brewers organization were so quiet this offseason… with the exception of revamping the bullpen by bringing in sturdy pieces like Tom Gorzelanny, Michael Gonzalez, Burke Badenhop, and Michael Olmsted, the Brewers did virtually nothing this offseason.

This, after the club two years prior sold the farm in acquiring two starting pitchers—Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum—to immediately contend for a World Series run. Then, the following year, after offering a $100 million contract to Prince Fielder and ultimately losing him to a deal that was both twice the length and double the monetary value, went after veteran (and rival) third baseman Aramis Ramirez to help replace some of Fielder’s prolific offense.

Let’s stop here for a minute. I can’t cite any articles, and I neither feel like, nor do I think it’s possible for me to go back to the twitter reactions from Brewers fans when they signed Ramirez. What I can tell you is that it was not universally positive. I was watching very closely (hoping they’d move on either Jose Reyes or Ramirez), and I remember the reactions very well. The detractors (of which there were quite a few) were contending that Ramirez was too old, not a good enough defender, and overpriced.

Ramirez was 33 years old last season, so he is on a bit of an age tilt. But he still managed to surpass even the optimists of the signing, including myself. I saw Ramirez posting an honest .275 BA with around 15-20 homers and 75-85 RBI. Worth the money, but only just. Instead, Ramirez put the hammer down on everyone and slammed 27 homers, 105 RBI, and he put up a slashline of .300/.360/.540, numbers that pushed him into ninth in MVP voting, which would have undoubtedly been higher if the Brewers were a playoff-bound team. Along with Braun’s improved power numbers, the two (along with Corey Hart) made for one of the most threatening 3-4-5 punches in all of baseball. That isn’t even bringing up his defense, which was stellar… so stellar, in fact, that Ramirez was a top-five finalist for a Gold Glove at third base (and in my humble opinion, should have won it).

What have we to learn here? Brewers fans are passionate… as passionate as any in baseball, and they react like crazy when this team makes signings perceived as risky. They want this team to be good both in the present and in the future, and the additions of Kyle Lohse and now Yuniesky Betancourt have jarred the fanbase, and have kept the streak of flashy offseason moves by the Brewers alive.

First, Lohse. Let me get this out of the way… if I see one more Jeff Suppan comparison, I’ll burst. Honestly. Lohse is NOT Jeff Suppan 2.0. Suppan didn’t have any of the tools that Lohse has, Suppan was always mediocre-to-bad, whereas Lohse has had an average career until his explosion onto the scene the last two years with the St. Louis Cardinals.

I can argue all day about why Lohse is better than Suppan, but any self-respecting fan can look at the situation and see that it’s simply the truth. Suppan threw an 85 MPH fastball and didn’t hit his spots. He sucked with the Brewers, he sucked before, and he still sucks now. Plain and simple.

Lohse works primarily with his 2-seam fastball that sits around 90-91 MPH, a hard dipping change-up in the low-80s, a very tight slider in the mid-80s that almost looks like a slider/cutter hybrid, and a curve in the low-70s. He mixes his pitches well, he hits his spots, and he gets a lot of ground ball outs, a valuable tool in fly ball-friendly Miller Park. He won’t have a K/9 above 7.0, but he’ll get a decent amount of strikeouts on location and familiarity of the division alone.

Lohse was undeniably good last year. His 16-3 record (.842 W-L%) led the league, he pitched to a 2.86 ERA in 211 innings, to go along with 143 strikeouts and a remarkable WHIP of 1.090. He had another good year the season prior, going  14-8 with a 3.39 ERA in 188.1 IP with 111 Ks. Two great seasons. And the big thing about Lohse is the fact that all of the stats are going the right direction… in 2010, he had a BB/9 of 3.4, in 2011 it dipped to 2.0, and in 2012 it was a microscopic 1.6. His K/9 has gone from 5.3 in both 2010 and 2011 to 6.1 in 2012, and he boasted a career high in K/BB with a 3.76, a very good, top of the rotation number.

All of this because he switched from a 4-seam fastball, with which he had less control, to a 2-seam fastball (starting in 2011), which has been the catalyst for his success.

Point is, don’t write Lohse off. It’s foolish to condemn him before he even wears Brewers blue. He’s a great No. 2 behind Yovani Gallardo, and while it’s hard to see him having an ERA below 3.00 again this season, it’s not hard to imagine a solid ERA in the low-to-mid 3s. All of that for the 10th best free agent available to start the winter, and well below the five year, $75 million dollar contract agent Scott Boras was reportedly seeking.

Oct 5, 2011; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Milwaukee Brewers infielder Yuniesky Betancourt celebrates in the second inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks during game four of the 2011 NLDS at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Now, a few words on the much maligned Yuniesky Betancourt, whose signing came the day after Lohse’s. Betancourt, of course, was the primary shortstop in the 2011 NL Central champion Brewers squad, and while he didn’t shock the world with his offensive production (.252/.271/.381, 13 homers, 68 RBI), he didn’t completely offend anyone. His defense wasn’t as glaringly bad as advertised either, even initiating one of the defensive plays of the year for the Brewers on May 9th, 2011.

So far, if his contract information has been released, I haven’t been able to find it (aside from it being a one year, major league deal), but if the Brewers were able to snag Alex Gonzalez, their other main utility infielder, for $1.5 million, my guess is that Yuni B. came dirt cheap—probably around $1 million with a few incentives.

His defense isn’t great. In fact, it’s pretty subpar. He sort of makes up for it on offense, but even his bat is frustratingly streaky. He boots his fair share of routine plays on defense, and he practically never draws walks at the plate. But he has some pop in his bat, he has the ability to make astounding defensive plays, and can play every infield position, though to varying results ranging from average to… not so average.

The vitriol surrounding the return of Yuni to the Brewers is probably mostly in a comical context, as he has earned a reputation of being a player that fans love to hate, but the move itself was practical. With Taylor Green and Jeff Bianchi headed for the DL, Donnie Murphy seeing the door, Corey Hart out until at least early-May, and Mat Gamel out for the entire season, the move was not only smart and cheap, it was necessary. The Brewers could have taken a chance on someone else, but they’re familiar with Yuni, and by all accounts, he’s a good guy to be around in the clubhouse, so why not?

The biggest drawback of the past two days is that the Brewers surrendered the 17th overall pick in the first year player’s draft by signing Lohse, which was a major reason Lohse was without a home until just this week, and a big reason many fans aren’t happy about his arrival. Losing that pick sucks, but the Brewers farm system isn’t as bad as most believe, and I think they can take that hit. Having a solid No. 2 behind Yo and in front of an extremely talented No. 3 in Marco Estrada makes the Brewers a much better team.

To say they’re World Series contenders is a pretty big stretch. To say they’re a better team in a much better position to make a run at a playoff spot? That’s not quite so outlandish, and it’s because of these moves.

Take a chill pill, Brewers fans… opening day is 5 days away! It’s going to be a fun season, and I fully expect the smart additions to rebuild the bullpen, add Lohse to the rotation, and bring back Betancourt for infield depth will prove to be a series of moves that will silence the Melvin critics for at least a few months.

If I’m wrong, I’ll eat crow. But I think we’re all hoping I’m right.

Like it or not, those are the facts. The response and reactions by Brewers fans have been decidedly polarized, many arguing that Lohse is just going to be another Jeff Suppan, while many others believing that his success with the St. Louis Cardinals will translate to Milwaukee. After all, Lohse doesn’t have to start against the Brewers anymore—a team he owns a career 4.44 ERA against.

This article isn’t really about what I believe regarding Lohse, what I think about the reactions, or anything like that… though my opinions will be present in my evaluation of him. It’s just that I’ve been sitting here racking my brain trying to figure out how this is going to impact the starting rotation. Who’s in, who’s out? How will those chosen to carry the starting torch perform? And what will the outsiders looking in be left to do?

To start, we’re going to go with the three certainties of this rotation. Barring injury, these first three pitchers make a formidable punch in the National League (which is somewhat hinting at my opinion on Lohse).

1 – Yovani Gallardo 

The ace of the rotation, even though the man just signed gave up 0.8 less runs per nine innings than Gallardo last season. That’s not a knock on Gallardo—he’s the best pitcher in this rotation until someone definitively shows otherwise. His ERA is consistently bloated by a few really, really bad starts every year. For roughly 27 games, you can expect Gallardo to go on the mound and be one of the best pitchers in baseball. For the other five, you have to watch his 93 MPH fastball get clobbered out of the ballpark over and over again. His stat-line last season was pretty decent—16-9, 3.66 ERA, 204 IP, 204 K, 1.304 WHIP—but it’s only a glimpse of what he’s capable of.

Gallardo always puts together numbers similar to those… a K/9 of around 9.0, an ERA in the mid-3′s, and pretty good numbers everywhere that just don’t shout “ace”. To see the ace in Yovani, you have to go deeper than the numbers and realize that he’s better than his statistics indicate. He’s a dominating presence on the mound almost every time he steps out, he’s capable of going the full nine (even though skipper Ron Roenicke won’t allow it), and he will give you 200 good innings a season. He has the stuff of an ace, with a fastball sitting around 92-94, a new cutter around 90s, a slider/cutter hybrid in the mid-80s, and a huge power curve in the low 80s.

He will continue to be the ace for the foreseeable future… hopefully a contract extension is in the works.

2 – Kyle Lohse

The man that started the article, the man that is lighting up Milwaukee fans around the country, and the man that everyone is glad to see find a home, if for no other reason than to end the news cycle. Lohse’s free agency expedition is well documented and commented on, and may very well be the catalyst in reforming some of the draft-pick compensation rules that came with the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. A client of Scott Boras (AKA: He Who Must Not Be Named, You Know Who, LORD VOLDEMORT), Lohse naturally came out of the season and into the winter aiming for the stars, seeking a deal for as long as five years at $15 million a year. Yeah right. If the Brewers had jumped on that grenade, maybe then I’d be a little perturbed.

Behind Gallardo, Lohse is going to carve a nice home in the Keg. The many doubters out there will point to his mediocre-to-bad seasons, primarily when he was in the American League, but it’s a lot easier for me to look at the very recent success he’s had in a division he’s very familiar with. The Suppan comparisons are, quite frankly, outrageous. Lohse has some very good pitches, and since he’s developed his low-90s two-seam fastball, he’s been one of the best pitchers in the NL Central, leading the league in win percentage last season (16-3), and as I mentioned besting Gallardo by a significant margin in ERA with a sparkling 2.86 ERA in 2012, and another great ERA of 3.39 the year before. Suppan had a fastball that sat at 87 MPH, and didn’t have much else. He was a bum and a bad signing, period. Lohse is not the same pitcher.

He’s a ground ball pitcher, not relying much on the strikeout. That’s okay though, because Aramis Ramirez played Gold Glove defense at third, Jean Segura is a young and very talented shortstop, Rickie Weeks will commit his fair share of errors, but is an altogether solid defender at second, and once Hart is back in action, he’ll be fine at 1st.

Lohse probably won’t replicate his sub-3 ERA with Milwaukee this season. I’m expecting him to give them around 200 innings of mid-3 ERA work. My official prediction: 209 IP, 3.48 ERA, 135K, 1.110 WHIP. Good enough to be a strong No. 2 behind Yo.

3: Marco Estrada

Entering Spring Training, long before the addition of Lohse, Estrada was pegged as the No. 2 starter behind Gallardo. I don’t think he’s going to have his feelings hurt being knocked down one peg to number three, especially when it’s an established veteran like Lohse taking his No. 2 spot.

I’m a huge Marco Estrada fan, and I’m not going to pretend otherwise. The fact that the Brewers obtained him for pretty much nothing and have turned him into an absolutely fantastic pitcher is a beautiful thing to me. He had a remarkable season last year, with a sparkling stat-line (5-7, 3.64 ERA, 138.1 IP, 143 K, 1.142 WHIP, and a ridiculous K/BB of 4.93), and a solid pitching repertoire that has continued to blossom. He hits his spots with his low-to-mid 90s fastball, and he misses a ton of bats with his strong cruve, and his bread and butter, a fading change-up in the low 80s.  Estrada can strikeout batters in droves, and in most starts, he looks like Yovani Gallardo 2.0 (with an even better ERA and K/BB!)

This will be his first season entering opening day as a starter instead of a long reliever. Given this immediate boost, and barring an injury, Estrada will be another pitcher who gives the Brewers 200 innings and he will deliver a K/9 around 9.0, similar to that of Gallardo. The thing is, I think Estrada isn’t just going to be as good as last year—I think he’s going to be better. If his strong spring training is any indication (1.88 ERA, 14.2 IP, 12 K, 9.5 OppQual), Estrada is going to emerge as a household name in 2013, and could very well outshine the two high-profile names above him. Don’t be surprised if Estrada posts an ERA in the low-3′s. His method of pounding the strike zone while still getting hitters to miss the ball is an ability no other Brewers pitcher has. It could be special.

4. Chris Narveson

Okay, here’s where things start to get tricky. Narveson has performed fairly well this spring, and appears to have come back from a season ending torn rotator cuff that limited him to two (bad) starts last season. He’s a lefty with a lot of major league experience, and he knows how to pitch in the majors. I’m not wild about Narveson, and in most other rotations, I believe he’d be the No. 5 starter at best, but we’ll get there in a minute.

Realistically, Roenicke and pitching coach Rick Kranitz are going to keep Narveson on a very, very short least, especially to start the season. Five inning outings, and any sign of trouble will result in Narveson being pulled and evaluated. Narveson doesn’t have any pitches that blow you away, and his fastball only touches 90 once every blue moon, but he mixes his pitches well, and even with his lack of knockout pitches, he still does a good job of striking batters out, owning a career K/9 of 7.4 (compared to Lohse’s 5.6). The fact that he’s done well this spring and is a left handed pitcher gives him the upper-edge over the other guys vying for the last two spots in the rotation. You can expect a so-so year from Narveson as long as he stays healthy. Around 160 or so innings, an ERA in the mid-4′s… you know the drill with Narveson. Nothing that will astonish you (except on the occasional night when he looks like an ace), but nothing that will repulse you.

5. Wily Peralta AND Mike Fiers

Okay, okay. I know. One spot, two pitchers. But think about it… does platooning the fifth spot not make at least a little sense? Mike Fiers clearly showed us last year that he is more than capable of pitching in the majors, and was, at one point, the most un-hittable man on the mound in the country. Peralta is a young fireballer who saw success in his limited time as a Brewer last season. Both are ready to start in the majors (even if their spring training numbers haven’t been great), and both are good enough to earn this fifth spot. After the top three, the Brewers are going to be doing a lot of mixing and matching, so why not start the season out with a six-man rotation, having Fiers and Peralta start once every 10 days each, with some bullpen time inbetween to keep their arms active? It’s an experiment worth trying when you’re looking at two candidates both deserving of the job.

If the powers that be in Milwaukee decide it has to be one or the other (which they probably will), I’d have to say they’re going to give Peralta the job, but have Fiers on speed dial ready to make a run like he did last year in place of an ineffective or an injured pitcher. Giving the nod to Peralta is because of his upper-90s fastball and devastating slider… two pitches that are just too good to pass up, and even though his spring numbers aren’t much to look at, I think he’s going to be just fine if he’s given the opportunity.

The rest of it. 

Mark Rogers is out of minor league options and to say that he has underperformed this Spring is an understatement. He’s suffering from a case of “dead arm” right now, lowering his velocity and greatly limiting his control. He’s confident this will blow over and he’ll be ready to contribute to the team. But when… well, if this happens, what role will Rogers serve? Tom Gorzelanny is the long reliever, and Melvin already made plenty of upgrades in what was the the worst bullpen in the majors from last year.

Rogers is going to start the season as a middle relief pitcher, probably getting a few long relief appearances if Gorzelanny is seeing too much action in too short of a time. There’s no way the Brewers risk placing him on waivers to go to the minors, because any number of teams would scoop him up in a heartbeat, and there goes a fifth overall draft pick with seemingly unlimited, but still unrealized potential. If this dead arm phase passes, and Rogers starts to perform, what happens to the rotation? What about Tyler Thornburg and Johnny Hellweg, both sent to AAA Nashville, but both nearly ready to make it in the bigs?

A lot of people are saying this rotation lacks depth, but I’d argue that they’re suffering from a bit too much, though that’s not really a bad problem, given the fact that any number of these pitchers could be injured at any point (knock on wood).

I love the addition of Lohse. Without him, the rotation is too young and too volatile. I think he’s going to perform well in Milwaukee, and I think the comparisons to Jeff Suppan are pretty outlandish.

If nothing else, with the addition of Lohse, the Brewers’ top three starters combine to make a formidable punch, and the bottom of the rotation (along with the outsiders looking in) contain massive upside. This is not a rotation to be overlooked.

Now, this team is, by almost all definitions, a young team with talent budding in all areas, ready to flourish and hopefully carry this team to another playoff run. Gone are Prince Fielder, Zack Greinke, and the drastically talent-diminished K-Rod. Braun still remains, though with controversy swirling around him like a swarm of bees to honey, and Weeks is still trying to rehab from a horrific ankle injury that kept him from finding his bat until after the All-Star break in 2012.

I’ll go ahead and tell you now, there are a few certainties on this team, barring some catastrophic injuries (please, for the love of God, let us get through this Spring and the World Baseball Classic only missing Mat Gamel). Guys like Ryan Braun, Corey Hart (once healthy), Aramis Ramirez, and Yovani Gallardo are all proven major leaguers, and I will not classify them as wildcards.

We’re going to take a look at the three biggest wildcards, both from the field, and from the mound, so six players altogether. Part one will be the three position players, and part two will contain the pitchers.

Let’s get started.

1: Jean Segura

Segura was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Greinke to the Los Angeles Angels last season. The Brewers also got a couple of great minor league pitchers out of the deal (Johnny Hellweg and Ariel Pena), but neither are likely to see time with the Brewers this season. Segura is, even with the addition of veteran Alex Gonzalez, Milwaukee’s starting shortstop entering the 2013 season. Last season, his first in the majors, wasn’t all that bad. He finished off his time in Milwaukee with a slashline of .264/.321/.331, knocked in 14 RBIs, and stole seven bases in 148 at-bats with the Brew Crew.

Numbers that don’t sparkle, but they don’t tell the whole story, either. After a slow start in August, hitting just .209 with the Brewers, Segura seemed to finally figure out major league pitching, and finished the season strong, going for a .343 BA in the month of September. We also saw his versatility as a middle-infielder, both at shortstop and second base, and is a potential Gold Glover in the future.

Segura is one of the fastest players on this team, and with a full season, it’s likely he’ll steal at least 30 bases. He might add a little bit of pop and hit a few homers, but don’t expect much power out of him. Segura has the potential to be a guy who gets on base frequently, and will be a constant threat to steal. He’ll also take away many hits up the center as he improves his already impressive fielding.

2: Carlos Gomez

Gomez shouldn’t have to be on this list… he’s been in the majors for six years now. He was once viewed by the New York Mets as a super-prospect, and is the only player Jose Reyes has openly admitted is faster than he is. Gomez, though a six-year vet, is still only 26 years old (he was the youngest player in the MLB when he was called up by the Mets his rookie year). Once viewed as a potential five-tool player, Gomez has never quite found his offensive footing in the majors. Until last season.

He’s always been a Gold Glove caliber centerfielder, and as this team’s full-time CF for the first time in his career, he very well may be in the running for that award this season. He’s also always had unbelievable speed and baserunning skills. The problem has always been getting on base. Before last season, Gomez only had one season in which he hit above .250 (2008 when he hit .258 with the Minnesota Twins), and he doesn’t do a great job of getting on base period, unable to draw many walks. His career slashline of .247/.294/.379 is ugly to look at. His previous career high in homers in a season was 8, in 2011 with the Brew Crew.

But last season, Gomez found his offensive footing and completely exploded… and I don’t think it was a fluke. Gomez put together a much-improved slashline of .260/.305/.463, slugged an impressive 19 homers, drove in 51 runs, and stole 37 bases… all of this in only 415 at-bats, as he spent the first part of the season with very little playing time.

Gomez will rob teams of runs thanks to his defensive prowess in center. He is the fastest player on this team, and will probably steal over 40 bases playing in a full-time capacity. If he can match that power and continue to just hit the ball and continue to find more discipline at the plate, Gomez is going to be a HUGE key for the Brewers.

3: Jonathan Lucroy

I truly can’t wait to see Jonathan Lucroy play for a full season. Seriously. He’s been flying under the general public’s radar for the past three seasons, but I think he’s about to emerge as one of the best catchers in the game. If it weren’t for injuries last season, Lucroy could’ve hit 20+ homers and 90+ RBIs, to go along with his slashline of .320/.368/.513. As it was, in 316 at-bats, Lucroy gave the Brewers 12 homers and 58 RBIs, respectable by any catcher’s standards. But you tack on another 200 at-bats, and Lucroy is going to be as big of an offensive cog as anyone on this team, except perhaps Braun.

You add that on to the fact that Lucroy is already a defensive-minded catcher, with a sure glove and a strong arm—teams might not know much about him yet, but they will soon. He fits the title of catcher of the future in Milwaukee, just like Segura fits the title of SS of the future. Both of these positions have been in question for years, but Segura and Lucroy are filling those holes, and filling them in big ways. If Lucroy stays healthy, don’t be surprised to see him hit around .320-.330, hit 20-25 homers, and drive in 90-100 RBIs.

I’m just saying… Yadier Molina and Buster Posey… it’s time to watch out for Jonathan Lucroy.

So that’s it for part one.

I had a tough time not including Norichika Aoki, a rejuvenated Rickie Weeks, and Alex Gonzalez to this list, but I have my reasons. Nori put together one heck of a rookie season with the Brew Crew, but I (unlike many others) saw it coming. I think he’s only going to get better, but I think teams got the message last season… he’s got some pop in his bat, he can hit for average, he’s a good fielder, and he’s much faster on the bases than anyone thought.

Weeks has been a huge part of this offense before, and despite hitting 20 homers last season, still had a subpar season. When he finally found his bat halfway through, he helped bring the Brewers back into contention. I expect another normal bounce-back season for Weeks. Batting average of around .260, 25 or so homers, and 15 or so stolen bases, along with some spectacular plays on defense, and some spectacular blunders on defense as well.

Gonzalez has never played any position but shortstop in the majors, but he’s very likely going to be asked to be a utility infielder this season, especially with the glaring hole at first base until Hart comes back a month into the season. He’ll hit like he normally does, and he’s an excellent defender, so I think he can acclimate to first base, which is, on the whole, easier to play than shortstop.

All three of those guys, and anyone I didn’t mention, are going to be huge for this team. But I think Segura, Gomez, and Lucroy are really the quiet giants that are going to surprise teams the most this season.

In part two of this brief series, I’ll discuss the three pitchers who I think will have wildcard-like seasons with the Brewers.

One of the best starters in baseball last year statistically.

Spearheaded a rotation that has made deep playoff runs two years in a row, including a World Series championship.

Two consecutive seasons of statistical mastery, and a fairly expansive repertoire with ever improving control.

2012 statline: 16-3 (league leading .842 W-L%), 2.86 ERA, 211 IP, 143 K, 1.090 WHIP, 3.76 K/BB

All of these things lead one to believe that every major league team would be drooling at getting that pitcher off the market for a price that is dropping every day now that spring training has began. Those are ace-like numbers, and still, the owner of that statline, Kyle Lohse, remains unsigned at the time of writing this article (2/19/13).

Why? Well, there are a couple of reasons, but I’ll discuss the two big ones. First, and probably foremost is the fact that he is represented by Scott Boras, the uber-agent who forces teams to sell their souls and their firstborn chil… I mean, spend a lot of money and commit to a lot of years on contracts for the players he represents.

I won’t beat around the bush. I hate Scott Boras. I think what he’s doing to baseball is damaging the sport on the same level as steroid-usage and the fallout it created in the 90′s and early 2000′s. Boras oversells his clients, teams are forced to sell the farm and their left legs to get a decent player, and then they’re stuck for a decade and 200 million dollars with a player who will, inevitably, stop producing at a level worthy of such high pay.

Why do I hate this? It kills smaller clubs. Teams like… well… the Milwaukee Brewers can’t compete with that level of spending, and many teams lose their best players to mega-teams like the New York Yankees, the Los Angeles Angels, the Boston Red Sox, and a few choice others.

Let’s just say baseball needs a salary cap, and you can blame Scott Boras for that.

But, in Kyle Lohse’s case, it doesn’t seem that Boras is really doing a great job of selling his client. Naturally, Boras asked for an outrageous amount of money and a long-term deal for Lohse, who is already 34 and has had only two good seasons in the majors, a couple of average-to-mediocre seasons, and a bunch of bad ones.

So, count Boras and his overzealous method of selling clients as a negative for Lohse. Also, count draft pick compensation against Lohse. Signing him means giving up the team’s first round draft pick… in Milwaukee’s case, that would be the 17th overall pick, and a mid-first round pick is nothing to shake off. There is some legitimate talent coming into this draft, and the Brewers (as well as every other team in the majors, obviously) are turned off by the fact that they have to give up that first round pick for a pitcher that may or may not be worth it.

Lohse has seen a decrease in his velocity all across his repertoire. His fastball has dropped a few clicks, and now sits around 90 MPH. Not too bad, considering he has gained control with the decrease in velocity, but the question has to be asked: Is his arm getting tired, or did he just sacrifice velocity for control?

If you look at sabermetrics, you won’t be able to sort much out either. All indications are that he had two great seasons, and that they weren’t flukes. In fact, his career FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching—think of it as a more comprehensive version of ERA) is a few clicks lower than his traditional ERA… his ERA standing at a career 4.45, while his FIP is at 4.34, indicating that, on the whole over his career, he is slightly better than what surface statistics tell us.

Sure, he’s not a strikeout pitcher. A measly career K/9 of 5.6 is not a lot to look at. But he does a great job of getting ground ball outs, last season getting 40.5 percent of batters to ground out. The rest of the rotation is more than capable of having K/9s of over 9.0, so it might be good to have a contact guy come in every fifth day to throw off opposing teams.

What does this mean for the Milwaukee Brewers?

Well, before spring training had started and I was sure Lohse would find a home before pitchers and catchers reporting, I made it known that I didn’t think they should sign him. In fact, in a post regarding Marco Estrada, I flat out said that the Brewers shouldn’t go after Lohse.

But if the price drops (which it is every day), and if the Brewers can sign him to a two-year deal with a third year team or mutual option, my mind has changed. They should go for it.

Look, I love that the Brewers are going young this season. I love that young arms are getting a chance to start. But really, really think about it. If injuries hit this team like they did last year, there is simply not enough depth to cover the losses. Without Lohse, we are looking at a minimum of two “prospects” to be in the rotation, and one mediocre veteran starter (Chris Narveson) who is just getting out of a season ending rotator cuff injury.

Sure, the battle for the rotation is interesting. You have Mike Fiers, Chris Narveson, Wily Peralta, Mark Rogers, and even Tyler Thornburg all vying for a spot to start. But seriously, what if Rogers and/or Narveson re-injure themselves? What if Fiers pitches like he did in September, when he earned an ERA of 7.09, instead of June/July, when he had a 1.83 ERA? What if Peralta and/or Thornburg just aren’t ready?

There is so much talent in the list of people I just gave you, and all can start, but some of them just flat out aren’t ready, or are very high-risk commitments.

At the very least, Lohse gives the Brewers veteran stability to go behind Yovani Gallardo and Marco Estrada. He might not be a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher like last year, but with his good command, good pitch selection, postseason experience, and what appears to be increased productivity, it’s time to seriously evaluate him as a risk worth taking.

Do I really want it? Do I really want the Brewers to give up that 17th pick? No, I don’t. I wish they would have re-signed Shaun Marcum or gone after guys like Dan Haren or Brandon McCarthy instead.

But when you really sit back and look at it, it’s a bigger risk not to sign him. The youth of this rotation might flourish, or they might be last season’s bullpen and completely sink the team.

It is also worth noting that Lohse has seven years of service on two different NL Central teams, spending two years with the Cincinnati Reds and five with the St. Louis Cardinals. He knows his way around the division, as well as the National League, where he has spent most of career.

Boras is becoming desperate to find Lohse a home, and I’m sure Lohse is just ready to find a place to pitch for the spring. Jim Bowden has predicted the Brewers or the Texas Rangers as the most likely landing spots for Lohse, and the more footage I watch, and the more I worry about starting depth, the more signing Lohse makes sense to me.

Doug Melvin and Gord Ash know that Scott Boras is sweating over getting his client signed. They have dealt with him before, and they know better than any reporter or critic about what’s going on in his mind, but my gut tells me that Boras is in a hole and he needs someone to pull him out. The Brewers should be that team.

Only time will tell, but time is running out, and it’s time for the Brewers, Boras, and Lohse to make their decisions. Here’s to hoping it’s the right one, and that Lohse can perform like he has with the Cardinals the past two seasons.

Previously dependable arms like closer John Axford and set-up man Francisco Rodriguez had… well… less-than-stellar seasons. Axford picked up steam as the season went on, but there was no excuse for his major drop off between 2011 and 2012. We’ll get more into that later.

The Brewers sent the majority of their bullpen packing after last season. Rodriguez, along with Jose Veras, Manny Parra, Kameron Loe, and Livan Hernandez were all relieved of their duties by the Brewers, and it was up to Doug Melvin and the rest of the front office to fill the massive holes.

Let’s take a look at next season’s likely bullpen, including new names, old names, roles, and expectations.

Spot Starter/Long Reliever: Tom Gorzelanny

Gorzelanny was one of the pieces picked up by the Brewers to fill their bullpen void, and he’s not going to disappoint. Gorzelanny is a starter by trade, turned into a reliever last season by the Washington Nationals. Gorzelanny pitched in 72 innings, struck out 62, put together a nice 2.88 ERA and was equally as effective against lefties and righties (Gorzy is a lefty himself). As a starter first, Gorzy has an expansive repertoire of pitches, something that is uncommon for most relievers who rely on two pitches. His four-seam fastball has gained more life in relief, sitting around 92-94 MPH. He mixes that in with a tw0-seamer, a mid-80s change-up, a low-80s slider, and an upper-70′s curveball.

Spot Starter/Long Reliever: Mark Rogers

I have Rogers just missing making the starting rotation to start the season in favor of Chris Narveson. Narveson has the benefit of experience and being a lefty, and Rogers has an expansive injury history, so the bullpen might be the best way to acclimate Rogers to the majors full-time. With no minor league options left, you can bet he’ll at least be in the pen. Rogers obviously has a strong repertoire, slinging a mid-to-high 90s fastball, a biting slider in the mid-80s, a change-up also in the mid-80s, and a curve in the upper-70s. Rogers is a strikeout pitcher all the way, but has the endurance of a starter. It’s a matter of control with Rogers, who has struggled to maintain control in the minors, but has done a decent job of holding off on free passes in the majors. A 3.1 BB/9 between his two major league call-ups is solid, and his 9.6 K/9 is good enough for a solid 3.06 K/BB ratio. Rogers has what it takes to be a starter, and will get the call to start over Gorzelanny when the time comes.

Middle Reliever: Brandon Kintzler

Kintzler is a big-time wildcard for this group of relievers. He primarily throws two pitches—a good, hard fastball in the mid-90s, and a slider in the mid-80s. With these two pitches, Kintzler can strike out plenty of batters, though his major league sample size is limited. in 38.2 career innings, Kintzler has a K/BB of 8.8. Control isn’t a huge problem, but it can be a concern for anyone with the kind of heat that power pitchers like many of Milwaukee’s relievers have. Kintzler performed well during his time with Milwaukee last season, and he could definitely see at least 50 innings in the majors this season as long as he can perform. Think of him as a potential replacement piece for Jose Veras.

Middle Reliever: Burke Badenhop

After a career season with the Tampa Bay Rays, the Brewers snagged Badenhop in a trade for a minor leaguer likely never to see the major leagues. Not a bad trade for the Brew Crew. Essentially a carbon copy of Kameron Loe, just more effective. In 2012, the sinkerballer pitched in 62.1 innings, struck out 42, had a 3.03 ERA, a WHIP of 1.203, and excellent control. Despite the relatively low strikeout rate of 6.1 batters per nine innings, he still managed a 3.50 K/BB ratio, meaning he has excellent control and does a great job pitching to contact, as any sinkerballer should. A good repertoire of a low-90s sinker, a low-80s slider, and the occasional change-up in the mid-80s will keep batters on their toes. Depending on how Kintzler performs, and if the Brewers decide to use Michael Gonzalez in more than lefty relief, Badenhop could be the go-to seventh-inning keeper.

Middle Reliever/Lefty Specialist: Michael Gonzalez

One of my favorite additions of the offseason, Gonzalez is wildly effective against left-handed hitters, average against righties, and altogether a solid pitcher, capable of being either a specialist, a middle reliever, a set-up man, or even the closer. His mid-90s fastball and his low-to-mid 80s slider carry his repertoire and both have great movement and bite. Gonzalez is a big time strikeout pitcher, having a career major league K/9 of 10.3, and has carved out an effective major league career, having a career 2.94 ERA. Command is an issue at times, and he has the propensity to give up walks, which could hurt him in hitter-friendly Miller Park, where extra men on base could always spell trouble. Still, I love the addition of Gonzalez, and I’m excited to see what Roenicke decides to do with him.

Set-Up Man: Jim Henderson

Jim Henderson, in many ways, is comparable to the man he’ll likely be setting up in John Axford. Henderson, a diamond in the rough pitcher who never saw major league action before 2012, throws high heat with a mid-90s fastball, and a mid-80s slider. Again, sound like anyone you know? Axford, essentially unknown prior to the 2010 season, came out and has become an admittedly up-and-down pitcher, but oftentimes dominant. Henderson displayed consistency in the bullpen when no one else could. He pitched in 30.2 innings to a 3.52 ERA, and managed to strike out 45 batters for a wonderful 13.2 K/9. Again, another Axfordian trait. It’s going to be incredibly exciting to see what Henderson does now that his feet are wet with a full season ahead of him. He’ll likely be defaulted into the set-up man to begin the season, but he’ll have to pitch well to maintain that roll with so many capable pitchers behind him.

Closer: John Axford

No surprise here. Axford, though having a disastrously inconsistent season in 2012 after a completely dominant 2011 campaign, will go into the season as the undisputed closer. As far as stuff, few pitchers have what he has. The upper-90s fastball and mid-80s slider/upper-70s curveball baffle hitters when Axford is in control of his pitches. Despite an high ERA of 4.67 and the atrocious stat of nine blown saves, which nearly tripled his career blown save count, which now sits at 14, Axford still has what it takes to be elite. The differences between 2011 and 2012 are shocking, but he’s still going to be the unquestioned anchor of this pen. Brewers fans are hoping that the Ax-Man either returns to 2011 form, or finds a happy middle-ground between 2011 and 2012. Articles can, will, and have been written about Axford’s inconsistencies, but it’s spring training time, and we’re going to see if Axford can carry the momentum he had exiting the 2012 season into 2013.

The Outsiders Looking In: Tyler Thornburg, Kelvim Escobar, Michael Olmsted

We all know what Tyler Thornburg is capable of. He’s been one of the best pitchers in the minor league organization, and he did a decent job in his call-ups last season with the Brewers. It won’t be enough to get him a roster spot from the start of the season though, as he’ll likely be starting in AAA to get more starting experience to continue grooming him for a future spot in the rotation.

Escobar was a low-key pickup by the Brew Crew, but could be a huge wildcard if things play out like they could. The former Major League stalwart has done it all. Started, relieved, and closed, and he has done all of those things well. He has a career ERA of 4.15, 1507.0 innings pitched, 1310 strikeouts for a K/9 of 7.8, but there are control and injury concerns. Injuries derailed his career in 2007, but at a still young-ish 33 years old, there’s still hope for the vet. This offseason, scouts clocked his fastball in the mid-90s, and it looks like Escobar is ready to make it back to the majors. Just don’t expect it to be at the start of the season.

Michael Olmsted is the most under-the-radar move that the Brewers made this season, stealing him from the Boston Red Sox organization for practically nothing. Olmsted is 25, has pitched across the world, but has never made it to the majors despite his domination in the minors. Last season he obliterated minor league hitters, compiling a 1.52 ERA in 59.1 innings while striking out 92 batters, giving him a ridiculous K/0 of 14.0. In Double-A, Olmsted pitched in 20 innings and did not give up a single earned run. That’s right, a 0.00 ERA in AA. It’s almost entirely thanks to his fastball, which can reach triple digits. Olmsted is a guy to watch this spring, and while he probably won’t start in the majors, don’t be surprised if he doesn’t make his major league debut with the Brewers this season.

Bottom Line

Bottom line is simple. This bullpen, though unfamiliar to the casual Brewers fan who will be baffled by the complete overhaul to start the season, is significantly better than last season. All of them have good stuff, most of them pitching in the mid-to-upper 90s, and the new additions have track records of being dependable, while guys like Kintzler, Henderson, Thornburg, and Olmsted all show signs of being good.

This is a better bullpen than last year. It’s going to be an exciting season.

My biggest problem is the cynicism in fans and pundits that don’t think it’s going to be enough.

Why not?

Sure, there’s been some more controversy within the Brewers camp this offseason, most recently involving a certain superstar player and a certain PED clinic.

I am, of course, talking about Ryan Braun’s name being included in a report concerning Biogenesis and their administration of performance enhancing drugs (PEDs) to certain MLB players.

It should be noted, before delving into why the Brewers will, in fact, win the NL Central, that Braun has come forward and admitted his involvement with Biogenesis. In a recent report, Braun stated that Biogenesis was a company of interest in a research endeavor in his successful PED appeal last offseason.

It is also worth noting that Braun’s name has not been connected at all to any PEDs administered by Biogenesis, and that the MLB, though wanting to take a strict hand to Braun, is going to need more than a name drop for what seems to be a legitimate explanation for an unfortunate snafu.

But let’s talk about what’s really important… the Brewers and their chances of winning the NL Central crown for the second time in three years.

Norichika Aoki is a major wild card for this Brewers team.

If you’re reading this, there’s a good chance I don’t really have to explain the efficiency of this offense. It was one of the best in baseball last year, and driven by big bats like Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez, Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks, and even wild cards like Carlos Gomez, Norichika Aoki, Jonathan Lucroy, and Jean Segura, this is an offense to be feared.

Speed? They have it. Braun has back-to-back seasons in which he has stolen 30 or more bases. Gomez nearly reached 40 last season (37), Norichika Aoki tallied another 30, and Jean Segura, though only stealing 7 bases with Milwaukee last season, is one of the fastest players on this team. Segura swiped 50 bases in 2010 in the Los Angeles Angels’ farm system.

How about Power? Well, you have that too. Without going into great detail, all positions on the field have pop. Braun, Ramirez, Hart, and hopefully a fully recovered Weeks are the obvious sluggers. Add into that Carlos Gomez, who slugged a career high 19 homers last season, Lucroy, who has serious pop at catcher, Aoki, who hit a surprising 10 homers last season, and the only position really lacking in that department is Segura at shortstop, but even back-up Alex Gonzalez is capable of slugging a few deep ones.

The starting rotation is high-risk, high-reward. The only truly known starters are Yovani Gallardo, who is on the verge of becoming a true ace, and Marco Estrada, who is, quite surprisingly, right there with him. Behind those two, you have Mike Fiers, who was the best pitcher in the majors for a couple of months last season, Wily Peralta, who proved he can succeed in the majors during his productive call-up, Chris Narveson, who will be hoping to prove himself after essentially missing the entire 2012 campaign with a torn rotator cuff, and Mark Rogers, the formerly hyped major league prospect, turned bust, turned… well… we’re not really sure yet. But he did a great job in his call-up as well, and without any minor league options left, Rogers will at least be in the bullpen.

The revamped bullpen, featuring Tom Gorzelanny (also a capable starter), lefty specialist Michael Gonzalez, sinkerballer Burke Badenhop, a former major league standout in Kelvim Escobar, and Michael Olmstead, a steal from the Boston Red Sox organization will all be vying for spots on a bullpen that has plenty of open spots and immeasurable room for improvement over last season.

You’re likely looking at Tom Gorzelanny and Mark Rogers as spot starters and long relievers, Burke Badenhop and Michael Gonzalez being middle relievers, with Gonzalez especially being utilized against lefties. The three returnees from last year’s bullpen will likely maintain their roles—Brandon Kintzler will be a middle reliever, Jim Henderson the set-up man, and John Axford the closer. Escobar and Olmstead will almost definitely be beginning the season in the minors, but could quite possibly working their way up to the majors before long.

You add in all of those low-value, high-production players with Alex Gonzalez, who the Brewers signed for infield depth at a massive bargain, and I don’t see the reason to fret.

When you look at this team, there is a lot to be afraid of if you’re not a Brewers fan. It’s an offense that could potentially be the best in the majors. The bullpen is vastly improved. The above additions to go along with returning pen members Jim Henderson, Brandon Kintzler, and John Axford, all capable of throwing into the high-90′s, and all capable of great things.

The only real question mark is starting pitching… beyond Gallardo and Estrada, it’s all question marks and inexperience. But the talent is there in abundance, and essentially every facet of this team is underrated.

They didn’t make any big signings this offseason. They could have gone big for Josh Hamilton or Zack Greinke, but they did the smart thing and made bang-for-your-buck moves to improve the areas that needed drastic improvement.

The Brewers didn’t make the playoffs for one reason last year—their bullpen. And that bullpen has been essentially completely revamped. Not much else has changed for the Brewers, and if they can avoid injuries in abundance (unlike last season), and if the young talent can prove to be major league ready, this is a dangerous team.

One that can earn a wild card berth… or even win the NL Central.

If you had said that a year ago, most people would have laughed in your face.

Not many players in the major leagues have a history like Estrada, who went from being a nobody with no upside when he was with the Washington Nationals, all the way to being a top-of-the-rotation starter with the Milwaukee Brewers.

What happened? It could be anyone’s guess. For as long as he’s been in the majors, even during those two forgettable years in Washington, Estrada has always been able to strike batters out, so it’s not like he lacked talent.

Estrada has always had good stuff. His four-seam fastball is usually thrown around 91-93 MPH, he has a good hard curveball in the upper-70s, and he has a great change-up with excellent movement in the low-80s. The change-up is probably his best pitch, but he’s more than capable of throwing all with great control and command.

Estrada has become a control freak the past two years. In 2011 he pitched to a respectable 3.03 K/BB ratio, but in 2012 he managed a ridiculous 4.93 K/BB. His strikeout ratio was 9.3 K/9, and he had a minuscule 1.9 BB/9.

That’s where the question of how he got here arises… he went from having virtually no control (2008-2010 BB/9 of 4.3) to being one of the best command/control pitchers in baseball.

It could be the coaching staff in Milwaukee and its minor league affiliates, or it could just be Estrada coming into a state of maturation a little later than the normal pitcher.

He’s capable of a ton of strikeouts without surrendering too many walks. Usually you have to pick one or the other—a guy who isn’t afraid to walk someone by pitching off the plate for the strikeout, or a guy who hammers the strike zone and pitches to contact without surrendering too many walks.

Even the club ace, Yovani Gallardo, falls into the former category. His 3.6 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 give him a respectable 2.52 K/BB, but Gallardo definitely has to walk a few to get his high strikeout numbers.

The shocking thing about Estrada? His 2012 9.3 K/9 is higher than Gallardo’s 9.0.

Granted, there are flaws here, chief among them being that Estrada pitched over 60 innings fewer than Gallardo last season.

In fact, last season was Estrada’s first real chance to be a full-time starter. It didn’t happen immediately, and he had to take some time on the DL due to an injury, whereas Gallardo has been a solid workhorse every season since 2009.

This article isn’t about who’s better than who, though. I don’t think there’s a person on the planet who would argue that Estrada is better than Gallardo. Gallardo, if he could just stop having three or four bad outings every season, could be a Cy Young Award candidate. Estrada is just now emerging as a legitimate starting threat.

Estrada will be on the opening day starting rotation for the first time in his career this season, and he’s probably going to be pretty high up in that rotation. Ron Roenicke recently opined that the only two “certainties” to make the rotation are Gallardo and Estrada, leading me to believe that Estrada will be the Brewers’ No. 2 starter unless the Brewers decide to sign Kyle Lohse (which they shouldn’t).

Is he good enough for that high-billing though?

To put it succinctly, yes. He is.

Estrada was downright dominant in most of his starts last season. It seems as if, at the age of 28, Estrada has finally figured out how to pitch in the majors.

The past two seasons have been his coming out party, and it seems like every time we see him he just keeps getting better and better. Don’t be surprised if Estrada rivals Gallardo as the best starter in this rotation this season.

He is a true diamond in the rough. He’s come from being a no-name reliever/minor league cellar dweller with Washington all the way through the ranks to high-rotation starter. Not many pitchers make that ascent and get better as they go. There’s usually a period of necessary adjustment to transition from reliever to starter.

Not for Estrada, though. He took the starting job in stride and hasn’t stopped getting better.

It’s interesting to look at the Brewers’ roster and see all of the players that have been transformed from nothings to integral parts of a pretty good team. Estrada, along with rotation partner Mike Fiers, relievers Jim Henderson and John Axford, as well as several position players have all climbed from anonymity to relative stardom.

Now we just have to see if Estrada can really hold onto the job for a full season. My guess is a resounding yes.