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More Brewers Trade Deadline talk…

Dave McGrath — Fri, 23 Jul 2010 15:06:44 +0000

We here at FanSided are doing our Collaborative Post on what teams should do as the trade deadline approaches. Here is a sneak preview, of what the Brewers focus should be going forward. Readers of this blog probably won’t find RtB’s proposed answer to be all that stunning.

As the trade deadline approaches, I think it’s pretty clear that the Brew Crew just doesn’t have the pitching — starting or in relief — to be any kind of a real threat to make the postseason. So its obvious they should be trying to sell for the future.
While there are any number of players they could potentially move for some minors depth or mid-level prospects, including Trevor Hoffman or Corey Hart, the Brewers should be solely focused on moving their first baseman while his value is highest in trade. Sure, Fielder isn’t having his best season, but I’m sure teams around MLB know his value, and recognize 1.5 years is better than .5 years of return.
As discussed previously on Reviewing the Brew, Prince just isn’t as irreplaceable as Milwaukee would like to believe — I even went so far as to say that Mat Gamel could take over for most of Fielder’s value immediately. While Fielder seems a decent bet to reach 5.0 WAR and up this season, in two of his first five years he didn’t even manage three, mostly because his shoddy defense can sabotage his work with the bat. Plus, it’s hard to believe that either Fielder will sign with Milwaukee longterm, or that doing so would be entirely beneficial for the Crew, given his, uh, physique.
The Brewers should take the highest offer they get for their first baseman, unless they believe it entirely feasible they will receive a higher offer in the offseason.

Once the entire post is up, I’ll drop a link here. Enjoy your Friday.
Sláinte!

What SHOULD the Brewers do???

Dave McGrath — Mon, 28 Jun 2010 16:17:51 +0000

Seeing as the Brewers are on a bit of a hot stretch, having won six of their past seven, featuring a sweep over the rival Twins even, it seemed a good time to bring up this question. FanGraphs has started a running series about buying vs. selling at the trade deadline, and a few days ago had this post surrounding the Milwaukee Brewers options/.
Now, I think the post has plenty of strong points, and brings up the most interesting question surrounding the team, long-term: What to do with Fielder.
First off, let me say that Prince Fielder is one of the best offensive players in baseball, and he’s also just 26 years old. With a wOBA of .420 last season he rated as the No. 2 first baseman offensively in baseball last season, and really, he is capable of similar performances pretty much any year.
However, Fielder is a below average fielding first baseman, with a career UZR/150 of -6.4. His fielding prowess is the key reason that only two of his first four seasons saw his WAR value at just 1.3 and 2.7.
Now, this isn’t to say that because Fielder doesn’t do his surname justice, the Brewers should trade him. Hardly.
What I AM saying though is that in the NL, if your 1B is nearly a DH when it comes to his glovework, then that player is rather replaceable.
While I won’t go so far as to say that Fielder is easily replaced, I can say that finding either a first baseman who either can hit well and field poorly is not difficult, of field well and hit average might be the easiest find in baseball.
I say this because the vast amount of major leaguers in the game today could probably slide to first base and maintain a UZR/150 of -6 or better, especially after an offseason working on it. Maybe I’m wrong about that, but a few positive examples include, Nick Swisher (-2.0 last year), Ramon Hernandez (-5.1), Luke Scott (-2.9), Pablo Sandoval (1.4), Mark Kotsay, (2.7), Matt LaPorta (14.4) and Jose Lopez (18.1).
Now most of those players only had spot duty at first last year, but all were primarily used at other positions for the bulk of their career and have transitioned to be as good or better defensively as Prince.
Now, before we get any further, let’s note that under the most optimistic of circumstances, Prince Fielder is unlikely to sign long term with the Crew. He will probably make about $15 million or so next year in arbitration, and while the Brewers can pay him that, they seem unlikely to offer him the six-year high eight or “low” nine digit number that will be necessary to sign him.
So even if you love Prince and want him to stay forever, you have to realize the odds of that happening aren’t too high. In fact, they’re lousy.
And that might be for the best, because while Prince is a transcendent hitter, his, uh, body type doesn’t exactly scream “20-year career”. Or really, “productive 10-year-career” for that matter. It just doesn’t look like Fielder, vegetarian or not, can sustain his current level of performance for too much longer. I’m not sure I’d want to offer him a six-or-seven year contract, much less a 10-year deal, which could be what Fielder is asking. Who knows.
So, all that said, Fielder’s trade value is likely to be highest right now, when whoever gets him has another full season of him. It hurts that Prince is off to a bit of a sluggish start, but overall, I think he would garner more in return now then next year if he were having production similar to his 2009.
In short, the Brewers brass HAS to know Fielders sign-ability by now (right?) and if they can’t get a good value for their dollar, they MUST trade him while his value is highest (RIGHT??).
The fact is that finding a productive 1B can be found. Heck, it could be Mat Gamel down in the minors.
Getting a good haul for Prince, simply makes sense. He is worth more to the Brewers than any other team due to his popularity, so keeping him makes sense, too. But at the cost he might be asking for, that might not be an option.
IF that’s the case, now might be the time to make a move.

The Brewers’ Most Deserving All-Star

Dave McGrath — Fri, 18 Jun 2010 13:10:18 +0000

So who is the Brewers MVP and best rep for an All-Star nod to this point? That was teh question posed to me by Fandsided’s blog Call to the Pen.

Here is Call to the Pen’s most excellent review of each team’s All-Star.

It’s been a rough season for the Brewers, and its equally difficult to try and single out any players as “All-Stars” on a team that has been massively disappointing. But two players stand out from the on-set as deserving participants of the Mid-Summer Classic: Corey Hart and Ryan Braun.
Let’s take a closer look to see who is the most warranted All-Star THIS YEAR.
Firstly, just to get it out of the way, both are different, but still sour degrees of bad as corner outfielders. Braun is among the worst in the game defensively (-19.8 UZR for Braun over his time as a leftfielder, on pace for a -25.7 UZR/150 right now !) at his position so far, while Hart is merely below average, with a -3.6 UZR/150 over six seasons as a right fielder, though he is suffering his worst fielding season of his career thus far, with a -14.7 UZR/150 currently).
I feel comfortable giving neither player any edge here. Though Hart is clearly better, he’s been poor and not helpful. So it will be up to the better bat to decide this.
Let’s look at the stats:
Corey Hart: .267/.344/.610, .401 wOBA; 17 HR, 9 2B, 41 RBI, 28 R
Ryan Braun .299/.364/.490, .383 wOBA; 9 HR, 17 2B, 39 RBI, 41 R

These are two pretty close players. Hart owns a healthy 3 HR lead among National League leaders, which is pretty much sure to punch him a ticket (with Braun, who will likely be voted in), however, is he deserving? The answer is yes.
I mean, sure, the majority of his numbers are high because of those homers, which explain the monstrous .610 slugging percentage. He only had 9 doubles to go with these, so Hart’s production has for the most part been homer or bust, since he’s not hitting for high average.
Braun on the other hand is having a much more balanced and sustainable season and the kind we’ve come to expect from him by now. His home runs will probably go up, but beyond that he’s been outstanding. If the award were to grade the better player, or the player more likely to continue their season, Braun would win easily.
But Hart, to this point, has been the Brewers’ All-Star.