Like it or not, those are the facts. The response and reactions by Brewers fans have been decidedly polarized, many arguing that Lohse is just going to be another Jeff Suppan, while many others believing that his success with the St. Louis Cardinals will translate to Milwaukee. After all, Lohse doesn’t have to start against the Brewers anymore—a team he owns a career 4.44 ERA against.

This article isn’t really about what I believe regarding Lohse, what I think about the reactions, or anything like that… though my opinions will be present in my evaluation of him. It’s just that I’ve been sitting here racking my brain trying to figure out how this is going to impact the starting rotation. Who’s in, who’s out? How will those chosen to carry the starting torch perform? And what will the outsiders looking in be left to do?

To start, we’re going to go with the three certainties of this rotation. Barring injury, these first three pitchers make a formidable punch in the National League (which is somewhat hinting at my opinion on Lohse).

1 – Yovani Gallardo 

The ace of the rotation, even though the man just signed gave up 0.8 less runs per nine innings than Gallardo last season. That’s not a knock on Gallardo—he’s the best pitcher in this rotation until someone definitively shows otherwise. His ERA is consistently bloated by a few really, really bad starts every year. For roughly 27 games, you can expect Gallardo to go on the mound and be one of the best pitchers in baseball. For the other five, you have to watch his 93 MPH fastball get clobbered out of the ballpark over and over again. His stat-line last season was pretty decent—16-9, 3.66 ERA, 204 IP, 204 K, 1.304 WHIP—but it’s only a glimpse of what he’s capable of.

Gallardo always puts together numbers similar to those… a K/9 of around 9.0, an ERA in the mid-3′s, and pretty good numbers everywhere that just don’t shout “ace”. To see the ace in Yovani, you have to go deeper than the numbers and realize that he’s better than his statistics indicate. He’s a dominating presence on the mound almost every time he steps out, he’s capable of going the full nine (even though skipper Ron Roenicke won’t allow it), and he will give you 200 good innings a season. He has the stuff of an ace, with a fastball sitting around 92-94, a new cutter around 90s, a slider/cutter hybrid in the mid-80s, and a huge power curve in the low 80s.

He will continue to be the ace for the foreseeable future… hopefully a contract extension is in the works.

2 – Kyle Lohse

The man that started the article, the man that is lighting up Milwaukee fans around the country, and the man that everyone is glad to see find a home, if for no other reason than to end the news cycle. Lohse’s free agency expedition is well documented and commented on, and may very well be the catalyst in reforming some of the draft-pick compensation rules that came with the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. A client of Scott Boras (AKA: He Who Must Not Be Named, You Know Who, LORD VOLDEMORT), Lohse naturally came out of the season and into the winter aiming for the stars, seeking a deal for as long as five years at $15 million a year. Yeah right. If the Brewers had jumped on that grenade, maybe then I’d be a little perturbed.

Behind Gallardo, Lohse is going to carve a nice home in the Keg. The many doubters out there will point to his mediocre-to-bad seasons, primarily when he was in the American League, but it’s a lot easier for me to look at the very recent success he’s had in a division he’s very familiar with. The Suppan comparisons are, quite frankly, outrageous. Lohse has some very good pitches, and since he’s developed his low-90s two-seam fastball, he’s been one of the best pitchers in the NL Central, leading the league in win percentage last season (16-3), and as I mentioned besting Gallardo by a significant margin in ERA with a sparkling 2.86 ERA in 2012, and another great ERA of 3.39 the year before. Suppan had a fastball that sat at 87 MPH, and didn’t have much else. He was a bum and a bad signing, period. Lohse is not the same pitcher.

He’s a ground ball pitcher, not relying much on the strikeout. That’s okay though, because Aramis Ramirez played Gold Glove defense at third, Jean Segura is a young and very talented shortstop, Rickie Weeks will commit his fair share of errors, but is an altogether solid defender at second, and once Hart is back in action, he’ll be fine at 1st.

Lohse probably won’t replicate his sub-3 ERA with Milwaukee this season. I’m expecting him to give them around 200 innings of mid-3 ERA work. My official prediction: 209 IP, 3.48 ERA, 135K, 1.110 WHIP. Good enough to be a strong No. 2 behind Yo.

3: Marco Estrada

Entering Spring Training, long before the addition of Lohse, Estrada was pegged as the No. 2 starter behind Gallardo. I don’t think he’s going to have his feelings hurt being knocked down one peg to number three, especially when it’s an established veteran like Lohse taking his No. 2 spot.

I’m a huge Marco Estrada fan, and I’m not going to pretend otherwise. The fact that the Brewers obtained him for pretty much nothing and have turned him into an absolutely fantastic pitcher is a beautiful thing to me. He had a remarkable season last year, with a sparkling stat-line (5-7, 3.64 ERA, 138.1 IP, 143 K, 1.142 WHIP, and a ridiculous K/BB of 4.93), and a solid pitching repertoire that has continued to blossom. He hits his spots with his low-to-mid 90s fastball, and he misses a ton of bats with his strong cruve, and his bread and butter, a fading change-up in the low 80s.  Estrada can strikeout batters in droves, and in most starts, he looks like Yovani Gallardo 2.0 (with an even better ERA and K/BB!)

This will be his first season entering opening day as a starter instead of a long reliever. Given this immediate boost, and barring an injury, Estrada will be another pitcher who gives the Brewers 200 innings and he will deliver a K/9 around 9.0, similar to that of Gallardo. The thing is, I think Estrada isn’t just going to be as good as last year—I think he’s going to be better. If his strong spring training is any indication (1.88 ERA, 14.2 IP, 12 K, 9.5 OppQual), Estrada is going to emerge as a household name in 2013, and could very well outshine the two high-profile names above him. Don’t be surprised if Estrada posts an ERA in the low-3′s. His method of pounding the strike zone while still getting hitters to miss the ball is an ability no other Brewers pitcher has. It could be special.

4. Chris Narveson

Okay, here’s where things start to get tricky. Narveson has performed fairly well this spring, and appears to have come back from a season ending torn rotator cuff that limited him to two (bad) starts last season. He’s a lefty with a lot of major league experience, and he knows how to pitch in the majors. I’m not wild about Narveson, and in most other rotations, I believe he’d be the No. 5 starter at best, but we’ll get there in a minute.

Realistically, Roenicke and pitching coach Rick Kranitz are going to keep Narveson on a very, very short least, especially to start the season. Five inning outings, and any sign of trouble will result in Narveson being pulled and evaluated. Narveson doesn’t have any pitches that blow you away, and his fastball only touches 90 once every blue moon, but he mixes his pitches well, and even with his lack of knockout pitches, he still does a good job of striking batters out, owning a career K/9 of 7.4 (compared to Lohse’s 5.6). The fact that he’s done well this spring and is a left handed pitcher gives him the upper-edge over the other guys vying for the last two spots in the rotation. You can expect a so-so year from Narveson as long as he stays healthy. Around 160 or so innings, an ERA in the mid-4′s… you know the drill with Narveson. Nothing that will astonish you (except on the occasional night when he looks like an ace), but nothing that will repulse you.

5. Wily Peralta AND Mike Fiers

Okay, okay. I know. One spot, two pitchers. But think about it… does platooning the fifth spot not make at least a little sense? Mike Fiers clearly showed us last year that he is more than capable of pitching in the majors, and was, at one point, the most un-hittable man on the mound in the country. Peralta is a young fireballer who saw success in his limited time as a Brewer last season. Both are ready to start in the majors (even if their spring training numbers haven’t been great), and both are good enough to earn this fifth spot. After the top three, the Brewers are going to be doing a lot of mixing and matching, so why not start the season out with a six-man rotation, having Fiers and Peralta start once every 10 days each, with some bullpen time inbetween to keep their arms active? It’s an experiment worth trying when you’re looking at two candidates both deserving of the job.

If the powers that be in Milwaukee decide it has to be one or the other (which they probably will), I’d have to say they’re going to give Peralta the job, but have Fiers on speed dial ready to make a run like he did last year in place of an ineffective or an injured pitcher. Giving the nod to Peralta is because of his upper-90s fastball and devastating slider… two pitches that are just too good to pass up, and even though his spring numbers aren’t much to look at, I think he’s going to be just fine if he’s given the opportunity.

The rest of it. 

Mark Rogers is out of minor league options and to say that he has underperformed this Spring is an understatement. He’s suffering from a case of “dead arm” right now, lowering his velocity and greatly limiting his control. He’s confident this will blow over and he’ll be ready to contribute to the team. But when… well, if this happens, what role will Rogers serve? Tom Gorzelanny is the long reliever, and Melvin already made plenty of upgrades in what was the the worst bullpen in the majors from last year.

Rogers is going to start the season as a middle relief pitcher, probably getting a few long relief appearances if Gorzelanny is seeing too much action in too short of a time. There’s no way the Brewers risk placing him on waivers to go to the minors, because any number of teams would scoop him up in a heartbeat, and there goes a fifth overall draft pick with seemingly unlimited, but still unrealized potential. If this dead arm phase passes, and Rogers starts to perform, what happens to the rotation? What about Tyler Thornburg and Johnny Hellweg, both sent to AAA Nashville, but both nearly ready to make it in the bigs?

A lot of people are saying this rotation lacks depth, but I’d argue that they’re suffering from a bit too much, though that’s not really a bad problem, given the fact that any number of these pitchers could be injured at any point (knock on wood).

I love the addition of Lohse. Without him, the rotation is too young and too volatile. I think he’s going to perform well in Milwaukee, and I think the comparisons to Jeff Suppan are pretty outlandish.

If nothing else, with the addition of Lohse, the Brewers’ top three starters combine to make a formidable punch, and the bottom of the rotation (along with the outsiders looking in) contain massive upside. This is not a rotation to be overlooked.

One of the best starters in baseball last year statistically.

Spearheaded a rotation that has made deep playoff runs two years in a row, including a World Series championship.

Two consecutive seasons of statistical mastery, and a fairly expansive repertoire with ever improving control.

2012 statline: 16-3 (league leading .842 W-L%), 2.86 ERA, 211 IP, 143 K, 1.090 WHIP, 3.76 K/BB

All of these things lead one to believe that every major league team would be drooling at getting that pitcher off the market for a price that is dropping every day now that spring training has began. Those are ace-like numbers, and still, the owner of that statline, Kyle Lohse, remains unsigned at the time of writing this article (2/19/13).

Why? Well, there are a couple of reasons, but I’ll discuss the two big ones. First, and probably foremost is the fact that he is represented by Scott Boras, the uber-agent who forces teams to sell their souls and their firstborn chil… I mean, spend a lot of money and commit to a lot of years on contracts for the players he represents.

I won’t beat around the bush. I hate Scott Boras. I think what he’s doing to baseball is damaging the sport on the same level as steroid-usage and the fallout it created in the 90′s and early 2000′s. Boras oversells his clients, teams are forced to sell the farm and their left legs to get a decent player, and then they’re stuck for a decade and 200 million dollars with a player who will, inevitably, stop producing at a level worthy of such high pay.

Why do I hate this? It kills smaller clubs. Teams like… well… the Milwaukee Brewers can’t compete with that level of spending, and many teams lose their best players to mega-teams like the New York Yankees, the Los Angeles Angels, the Boston Red Sox, and a few choice others.

Let’s just say baseball needs a salary cap, and you can blame Scott Boras for that.

But, in Kyle Lohse’s case, it doesn’t seem that Boras is really doing a great job of selling his client. Naturally, Boras asked for an outrageous amount of money and a long-term deal for Lohse, who is already 34 and has had only two good seasons in the majors, a couple of average-to-mediocre seasons, and a bunch of bad ones.

So, count Boras and his overzealous method of selling clients as a negative for Lohse. Also, count draft pick compensation against Lohse. Signing him means giving up the team’s first round draft pick… in Milwaukee’s case, that would be the 17th overall pick, and a mid-first round pick is nothing to shake off. There is some legitimate talent coming into this draft, and the Brewers (as well as every other team in the majors, obviously) are turned off by the fact that they have to give up that first round pick for a pitcher that may or may not be worth it.

Lohse has seen a decrease in his velocity all across his repertoire. His fastball has dropped a few clicks, and now sits around 90 MPH. Not too bad, considering he has gained control with the decrease in velocity, but the question has to be asked: Is his arm getting tired, or did he just sacrifice velocity for control?

If you look at sabermetrics, you won’t be able to sort much out either. All indications are that he had two great seasons, and that they weren’t flukes. In fact, his career FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching—think of it as a more comprehensive version of ERA) is a few clicks lower than his traditional ERA… his ERA standing at a career 4.45, while his FIP is at 4.34, indicating that, on the whole over his career, he is slightly better than what surface statistics tell us.

Sure, he’s not a strikeout pitcher. A measly career K/9 of 5.6 is not a lot to look at. But he does a great job of getting ground ball outs, last season getting 40.5 percent of batters to ground out. The rest of the rotation is more than capable of having K/9s of over 9.0, so it might be good to have a contact guy come in every fifth day to throw off opposing teams.

What does this mean for the Milwaukee Brewers?

Well, before spring training had started and I was sure Lohse would find a home before pitchers and catchers reporting, I made it known that I didn’t think they should sign him. In fact, in a post regarding Marco Estrada, I flat out said that the Brewers shouldn’t go after Lohse.

But if the price drops (which it is every day), and if the Brewers can sign him to a two-year deal with a third year team or mutual option, my mind has changed. They should go for it.

Look, I love that the Brewers are going young this season. I love that young arms are getting a chance to start. But really, really think about it. If injuries hit this team like they did last year, there is simply not enough depth to cover the losses. Without Lohse, we are looking at a minimum of two “prospects” to be in the rotation, and one mediocre veteran starter (Chris Narveson) who is just getting out of a season ending rotator cuff injury.

Sure, the battle for the rotation is interesting. You have Mike Fiers, Chris Narveson, Wily Peralta, Mark Rogers, and even Tyler Thornburg all vying for a spot to start. But seriously, what if Rogers and/or Narveson re-injure themselves? What if Fiers pitches like he did in September, when he earned an ERA of 7.09, instead of June/July, when he had a 1.83 ERA? What if Peralta and/or Thornburg just aren’t ready?

There is so much talent in the list of people I just gave you, and all can start, but some of them just flat out aren’t ready, or are very high-risk commitments.

At the very least, Lohse gives the Brewers veteran stability to go behind Yovani Gallardo and Marco Estrada. He might not be a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher like last year, but with his good command, good pitch selection, postseason experience, and what appears to be increased productivity, it’s time to seriously evaluate him as a risk worth taking.

Do I really want it? Do I really want the Brewers to give up that 17th pick? No, I don’t. I wish they would have re-signed Shaun Marcum or gone after guys like Dan Haren or Brandon McCarthy instead.

But when you really sit back and look at it, it’s a bigger risk not to sign him. The youth of this rotation might flourish, or they might be last season’s bullpen and completely sink the team.

It is also worth noting that Lohse has seven years of service on two different NL Central teams, spending two years with the Cincinnati Reds and five with the St. Louis Cardinals. He knows his way around the division, as well as the National League, where he has spent most of career.

Boras is becoming desperate to find Lohse a home, and I’m sure Lohse is just ready to find a place to pitch for the spring. Jim Bowden has predicted the Brewers or the Texas Rangers as the most likely landing spots for Lohse, and the more footage I watch, and the more I worry about starting depth, the more signing Lohse makes sense to me.

Doug Melvin and Gord Ash know that Scott Boras is sweating over getting his client signed. They have dealt with him before, and they know better than any reporter or critic about what’s going on in his mind, but my gut tells me that Boras is in a hole and he needs someone to pull him out. The Brewers should be that team.

Only time will tell, but time is running out, and it’s time for the Brewers, Boras, and Lohse to make their decisions. Here’s to hoping it’s the right one, and that Lohse can perform like he has with the Cardinals the past two seasons.

Previously dependable arms like closer John Axford and set-up man Francisco Rodriguez had… well… less-than-stellar seasons. Axford picked up steam as the season went on, but there was no excuse for his major drop off between 2011 and 2012. We’ll get more into that later.

The Brewers sent the majority of their bullpen packing after last season. Rodriguez, along with Jose Veras, Manny Parra, Kameron Loe, and Livan Hernandez were all relieved of their duties by the Brewers, and it was up to Doug Melvin and the rest of the front office to fill the massive holes.

Let’s take a look at next season’s likely bullpen, including new names, old names, roles, and expectations.

Spot Starter/Long Reliever: Tom Gorzelanny

Gorzelanny was one of the pieces picked up by the Brewers to fill their bullpen void, and he’s not going to disappoint. Gorzelanny is a starter by trade, turned into a reliever last season by the Washington Nationals. Gorzelanny pitched in 72 innings, struck out 62, put together a nice 2.88 ERA and was equally as effective against lefties and righties (Gorzy is a lefty himself). As a starter first, Gorzy has an expansive repertoire of pitches, something that is uncommon for most relievers who rely on two pitches. His four-seam fastball has gained more life in relief, sitting around 92-94 MPH. He mixes that in with a tw0-seamer, a mid-80s change-up, a low-80s slider, and an upper-70′s curveball.

Spot Starter/Long Reliever: Mark Rogers

I have Rogers just missing making the starting rotation to start the season in favor of Chris Narveson. Narveson has the benefit of experience and being a lefty, and Rogers has an expansive injury history, so the bullpen might be the best way to acclimate Rogers to the majors full-time. With no minor league options left, you can bet he’ll at least be in the pen. Rogers obviously has a strong repertoire, slinging a mid-to-high 90s fastball, a biting slider in the mid-80s, a change-up also in the mid-80s, and a curve in the upper-70s. Rogers is a strikeout pitcher all the way, but has the endurance of a starter. It’s a matter of control with Rogers, who has struggled to maintain control in the minors, but has done a decent job of holding off on free passes in the majors. A 3.1 BB/9 between his two major league call-ups is solid, and his 9.6 K/9 is good enough for a solid 3.06 K/BB ratio. Rogers has what it takes to be a starter, and will get the call to start over Gorzelanny when the time comes.

Middle Reliever: Brandon Kintzler

Kintzler is a big-time wildcard for this group of relievers. He primarily throws two pitches—a good, hard fastball in the mid-90s, and a slider in the mid-80s. With these two pitches, Kintzler can strike out plenty of batters, though his major league sample size is limited. in 38.2 career innings, Kintzler has a K/BB of 8.8. Control isn’t a huge problem, but it can be a concern for anyone with the kind of heat that power pitchers like many of Milwaukee’s relievers have. Kintzler performed well during his time with Milwaukee last season, and he could definitely see at least 50 innings in the majors this season as long as he can perform. Think of him as a potential replacement piece for Jose Veras.

Middle Reliever: Burke Badenhop

After a career season with the Tampa Bay Rays, the Brewers snagged Badenhop in a trade for a minor leaguer likely never to see the major leagues. Not a bad trade for the Brew Crew. Essentially a carbon copy of Kameron Loe, just more effective. In 2012, the sinkerballer pitched in 62.1 innings, struck out 42, had a 3.03 ERA, a WHIP of 1.203, and excellent control. Despite the relatively low strikeout rate of 6.1 batters per nine innings, he still managed a 3.50 K/BB ratio, meaning he has excellent control and does a great job pitching to contact, as any sinkerballer should. A good repertoire of a low-90s sinker, a low-80s slider, and the occasional change-up in the mid-80s will keep batters on their toes. Depending on how Kintzler performs, and if the Brewers decide to use Michael Gonzalez in more than lefty relief, Badenhop could be the go-to seventh-inning keeper.

Middle Reliever/Lefty Specialist: Michael Gonzalez

One of my favorite additions of the offseason, Gonzalez is wildly effective against left-handed hitters, average against righties, and altogether a solid pitcher, capable of being either a specialist, a middle reliever, a set-up man, or even the closer. His mid-90s fastball and his low-to-mid 80s slider carry his repertoire and both have great movement and bite. Gonzalez is a big time strikeout pitcher, having a career major league K/9 of 10.3, and has carved out an effective major league career, having a career 2.94 ERA. Command is an issue at times, and he has the propensity to give up walks, which could hurt him in hitter-friendly Miller Park, where extra men on base could always spell trouble. Still, I love the addition of Gonzalez, and I’m excited to see what Roenicke decides to do with him.

Set-Up Man: Jim Henderson

Jim Henderson, in many ways, is comparable to the man he’ll likely be setting up in John Axford. Henderson, a diamond in the rough pitcher who never saw major league action before 2012, throws high heat with a mid-90s fastball, and a mid-80s slider. Again, sound like anyone you know? Axford, essentially unknown prior to the 2010 season, came out and has become an admittedly up-and-down pitcher, but oftentimes dominant. Henderson displayed consistency in the bullpen when no one else could. He pitched in 30.2 innings to a 3.52 ERA, and managed to strike out 45 batters for a wonderful 13.2 K/9. Again, another Axfordian trait. It’s going to be incredibly exciting to see what Henderson does now that his feet are wet with a full season ahead of him. He’ll likely be defaulted into the set-up man to begin the season, but he’ll have to pitch well to maintain that roll with so many capable pitchers behind him.

Closer: John Axford

No surprise here. Axford, though having a disastrously inconsistent season in 2012 after a completely dominant 2011 campaign, will go into the season as the undisputed closer. As far as stuff, few pitchers have what he has. The upper-90s fastball and mid-80s slider/upper-70s curveball baffle hitters when Axford is in control of his pitches. Despite an high ERA of 4.67 and the atrocious stat of nine blown saves, which nearly tripled his career blown save count, which now sits at 14, Axford still has what it takes to be elite. The differences between 2011 and 2012 are shocking, but he’s still going to be the unquestioned anchor of this pen. Brewers fans are hoping that the Ax-Man either returns to 2011 form, or finds a happy middle-ground between 2011 and 2012. Articles can, will, and have been written about Axford’s inconsistencies, but it’s spring training time, and we’re going to see if Axford can carry the momentum he had exiting the 2012 season into 2013.

The Outsiders Looking In: Tyler Thornburg, Kelvim Escobar, Michael Olmsted

We all know what Tyler Thornburg is capable of. He’s been one of the best pitchers in the minor league organization, and he did a decent job in his call-ups last season with the Brewers. It won’t be enough to get him a roster spot from the start of the season though, as he’ll likely be starting in AAA to get more starting experience to continue grooming him for a future spot in the rotation.

Escobar was a low-key pickup by the Brew Crew, but could be a huge wildcard if things play out like they could. The former Major League stalwart has done it all. Started, relieved, and closed, and he has done all of those things well. He has a career ERA of 4.15, 1507.0 innings pitched, 1310 strikeouts for a K/9 of 7.8, but there are control and injury concerns. Injuries derailed his career in 2007, but at a still young-ish 33 years old, there’s still hope for the vet. This offseason, scouts clocked his fastball in the mid-90s, and it looks like Escobar is ready to make it back to the majors. Just don’t expect it to be at the start of the season.

Michael Olmsted is the most under-the-radar move that the Brewers made this season, stealing him from the Boston Red Sox organization for practically nothing. Olmsted is 25, has pitched across the world, but has never made it to the majors despite his domination in the minors. Last season he obliterated minor league hitters, compiling a 1.52 ERA in 59.1 innings while striking out 92 batters, giving him a ridiculous K/0 of 14.0. In Double-A, Olmsted pitched in 20 innings and did not give up a single earned run. That’s right, a 0.00 ERA in AA. It’s almost entirely thanks to his fastball, which can reach triple digits. Olmsted is a guy to watch this spring, and while he probably won’t start in the majors, don’t be surprised if he doesn’t make his major league debut with the Brewers this season.

Bottom Line

Bottom line is simple. This bullpen, though unfamiliar to the casual Brewers fan who will be baffled by the complete overhaul to start the season, is significantly better than last season. All of them have good stuff, most of them pitching in the mid-to-upper 90s, and the new additions have track records of being dependable, while guys like Kintzler, Henderson, Thornburg, and Olmsted all show signs of being good.

This is a better bullpen than last year. It’s going to be an exciting season.

My biggest problem is the cynicism in fans and pundits that don’t think it’s going to be enough.

Why not?

Sure, there’s been some more controversy within the Brewers camp this offseason, most recently involving a certain superstar player and a certain PED clinic.

I am, of course, talking about Ryan Braun’s name being included in a report concerning Biogenesis and their administration of performance enhancing drugs (PEDs) to certain MLB players.

It should be noted, before delving into why the Brewers will, in fact, win the NL Central, that Braun has come forward and admitted his involvement with Biogenesis. In a recent report, Braun stated that Biogenesis was a company of interest in a research endeavor in his successful PED appeal last offseason.

It is also worth noting that Braun’s name has not been connected at all to any PEDs administered by Biogenesis, and that the MLB, though wanting to take a strict hand to Braun, is going to need more than a name drop for what seems to be a legitimate explanation for an unfortunate snafu.

But let’s talk about what’s really important… the Brewers and their chances of winning the NL Central crown for the second time in three years.

Norichika Aoki is a major wild card for this Brewers team.

If you’re reading this, there’s a good chance I don’t really have to explain the efficiency of this offense. It was one of the best in baseball last year, and driven by big bats like Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez, Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks, and even wild cards like Carlos Gomez, Norichika Aoki, Jonathan Lucroy, and Jean Segura, this is an offense to be feared.

Speed? They have it. Braun has back-to-back seasons in which he has stolen 30 or more bases. Gomez nearly reached 40 last season (37), Norichika Aoki tallied another 30, and Jean Segura, though only stealing 7 bases with Milwaukee last season, is one of the fastest players on this team. Segura swiped 50 bases in 2010 in the Los Angeles Angels’ farm system.

How about Power? Well, you have that too. Without going into great detail, all positions on the field have pop. Braun, Ramirez, Hart, and hopefully a fully recovered Weeks are the obvious sluggers. Add into that Carlos Gomez, who slugged a career high 19 homers last season, Lucroy, who has serious pop at catcher, Aoki, who hit a surprising 10 homers last season, and the only position really lacking in that department is Segura at shortstop, but even back-up Alex Gonzalez is capable of slugging a few deep ones.

The starting rotation is high-risk, high-reward. The only truly known starters are Yovani Gallardo, who is on the verge of becoming a true ace, and Marco Estrada, who is, quite surprisingly, right there with him. Behind those two, you have Mike Fiers, who was the best pitcher in the majors for a couple of months last season, Wily Peralta, who proved he can succeed in the majors during his productive call-up, Chris Narveson, who will be hoping to prove himself after essentially missing the entire 2012 campaign with a torn rotator cuff, and Mark Rogers, the formerly hyped major league prospect, turned bust, turned… well… we’re not really sure yet. But he did a great job in his call-up as well, and without any minor league options left, Rogers will at least be in the bullpen.

The revamped bullpen, featuring Tom Gorzelanny (also a capable starter), lefty specialist Michael Gonzalez, sinkerballer Burke Badenhop, a former major league standout in Kelvim Escobar, and Michael Olmstead, a steal from the Boston Red Sox organization will all be vying for spots on a bullpen that has plenty of open spots and immeasurable room for improvement over last season.

You’re likely looking at Tom Gorzelanny and Mark Rogers as spot starters and long relievers, Burke Badenhop and Michael Gonzalez being middle relievers, with Gonzalez especially being utilized against lefties. The three returnees from last year’s bullpen will likely maintain their roles—Brandon Kintzler will be a middle reliever, Jim Henderson the set-up man, and John Axford the closer. Escobar and Olmstead will almost definitely be beginning the season in the minors, but could quite possibly working their way up to the majors before long.

You add in all of those low-value, high-production players with Alex Gonzalez, who the Brewers signed for infield depth at a massive bargain, and I don’t see the reason to fret.

When you look at this team, there is a lot to be afraid of if you’re not a Brewers fan. It’s an offense that could potentially be the best in the majors. The bullpen is vastly improved. The above additions to go along with returning pen members Jim Henderson, Brandon Kintzler, and John Axford, all capable of throwing into the high-90′s, and all capable of great things.

The only real question mark is starting pitching… beyond Gallardo and Estrada, it’s all question marks and inexperience. But the talent is there in abundance, and essentially every facet of this team is underrated.

They didn’t make any big signings this offseason. They could have gone big for Josh Hamilton or Zack Greinke, but they did the smart thing and made bang-for-your-buck moves to improve the areas that needed drastic improvement.

The Brewers didn’t make the playoffs for one reason last year—their bullpen. And that bullpen has been essentially completely revamped. Not much else has changed for the Brewers, and if they can avoid injuries in abundance (unlike last season), and if the young talent can prove to be major league ready, this is a dangerous team.

One that can earn a wild card berth… or even win the NL Central.

If you had said that a year ago, most people would have laughed in your face.

Not many players in the major leagues have a history like Estrada, who went from being a nobody with no upside when he was with the Washington Nationals, all the way to being a top-of-the-rotation starter with the Milwaukee Brewers.

What happened? It could be anyone’s guess. For as long as he’s been in the majors, even during those two forgettable years in Washington, Estrada has always been able to strike batters out, so it’s not like he lacked talent.

Estrada has always had good stuff. His four-seam fastball is usually thrown around 91-93 MPH, he has a good hard curveball in the upper-70s, and he has a great change-up with excellent movement in the low-80s. The change-up is probably his best pitch, but he’s more than capable of throwing all with great control and command.

Estrada has become a control freak the past two years. In 2011 he pitched to a respectable 3.03 K/BB ratio, but in 2012 he managed a ridiculous 4.93 K/BB. His strikeout ratio was 9.3 K/9, and he had a minuscule 1.9 BB/9.

That’s where the question of how he got here arises… he went from having virtually no control (2008-2010 BB/9 of 4.3) to being one of the best command/control pitchers in baseball.

It could be the coaching staff in Milwaukee and its minor league affiliates, or it could just be Estrada coming into a state of maturation a little later than the normal pitcher.

He’s capable of a ton of strikeouts without surrendering too many walks. Usually you have to pick one or the other—a guy who isn’t afraid to walk someone by pitching off the plate for the strikeout, or a guy who hammers the strike zone and pitches to contact without surrendering too many walks.

Even the club ace, Yovani Gallardo, falls into the former category. His 3.6 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 give him a respectable 2.52 K/BB, but Gallardo definitely has to walk a few to get his high strikeout numbers.

The shocking thing about Estrada? His 2012 9.3 K/9 is higher than Gallardo’s 9.0.

Granted, there are flaws here, chief among them being that Estrada pitched over 60 innings fewer than Gallardo last season.

In fact, last season was Estrada’s first real chance to be a full-time starter. It didn’t happen immediately, and he had to take some time on the DL due to an injury, whereas Gallardo has been a solid workhorse every season since 2009.

This article isn’t about who’s better than who, though. I don’t think there’s a person on the planet who would argue that Estrada is better than Gallardo. Gallardo, if he could just stop having three or four bad outings every season, could be a Cy Young Award candidate. Estrada is just now emerging as a legitimate starting threat.

Estrada will be on the opening day starting rotation for the first time in his career this season, and he’s probably going to be pretty high up in that rotation. Ron Roenicke recently opined that the only two “certainties” to make the rotation are Gallardo and Estrada, leading me to believe that Estrada will be the Brewers’ No. 2 starter unless the Brewers decide to sign Kyle Lohse (which they shouldn’t).

Is he good enough for that high-billing though?

To put it succinctly, yes. He is.

Estrada was downright dominant in most of his starts last season. It seems as if, at the age of 28, Estrada has finally figured out how to pitch in the majors.

The past two seasons have been his coming out party, and it seems like every time we see him he just keeps getting better and better. Don’t be surprised if Estrada rivals Gallardo as the best starter in this rotation this season.

He is a true diamond in the rough. He’s come from being a no-name reliever/minor league cellar dweller with Washington all the way through the ranks to high-rotation starter. Not many pitchers make that ascent and get better as they go. There’s usually a period of necessary adjustment to transition from reliever to starter.

Not for Estrada, though. He took the starting job in stride and hasn’t stopped getting better.

It’s interesting to look at the Brewers’ roster and see all of the players that have been transformed from nothings to integral parts of a pretty good team. Estrada, along with rotation partner Mike Fiers, relievers Jim Henderson and John Axford, as well as several position players have all climbed from anonymity to relative stardom.

Now we just have to see if Estrada can really hold onto the job for a full season. My guess is a resounding yes.

This is an interesting time for Milwaukee, being a little less than 20 games out of their division and hopelessly treading water behind nearly the whole Senior Circuit in the Wild Card race, there is little to lose with some more experimentation on the starting nine.

Today we take a look at some of the possible September Call-ups and what, if any, difference they could make for the squad.

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Ron Roenicke (10) argues with home plate umpire Joe West (22) after being ejected from a game against the Houston Astros. Photo:

As a game, baseball is unfair.  Not just on the field, but on the business end as well.  Sometimes, heads have to roll.  One Brewers coach already did a Louis XVI earlier this season, bullpen coach Stan Kyles.  I think that is enough for now, but it turns out I am in the minority of the Brew Crew Nation.  Many of you do not want to see RRR back in the dugout next season.   

We can credit this seasons disappointments to many things: poor pitching, untimely hitting, a complete and total lack of facial hair.  The one thing I do not think any of us can blame this on is the skipper, Ron Roenicke.  (I mean you can, and most of you do, but you shouldn’t) 
 
It is not Ron’s fault that his bullpen couldn’t close out a Little League World Series game.  The only guys that he can roll out there to finish of the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings, are the ones on the roster.  It’s not like he can waive a magic bullpen wand and make them all go away.  Or even better, waive the wand and make them better pitchers.  The current state of the pen leaves RRR very little to work with.  K-Rod has been a joke(2-6, 3 saves, 5.55 ERA), Axford has been uncharacteristically bad (4-7, 18 saves, 5.25 ERA), and everyone else has been adequate at best.  So, I  guess the question is, why is everyone ragging on RRR for the teams struggles? 
 
I am fairly certain that there is not a skipper on this earth that would trade places with Ron.  This guy lost his opening day shortstop, 1st baseman, and #5 starter in his rotation within the first 2 weeks of 2012.  Then you add the loss of Prince Fielder, Takashi Saito, his lover Mark Kotsay, Jerry Hairston Jr, and LaTroy Hawkins before the season even started.  Sprinkle a dash of 23 blown saves by your bullpen, two sluggers who started the season batting under .200 (Ramirez and Weeks), and finally a pinch of terrible batting with runners in scoring position…and you have the 2012 Brewers.  A mess, by any standard. 
 
Now, I am not a Ron Roenicke fan.  I did not think that he was the right person for the job when they hired him last winter (I love Dale Sveum), and that still holds true.  However, what is happening this season, can not be put on him.  And I will defend him for the duration of the season, because the assault he has taken from Brewers fans is unwarranted.  While he may not be my favorite Brewers skipper, he is certainly better than the last two (Macha and Yost). 
 
This bullpen has 23 blown saves.  TWENTY-THREE!!!!!  If they had saved even 40% of those opportunities the team would be a game over .500 and maybe Greinke would still be around.  But they didn’t, so we aren’t, and he isn’t.  Again, not Ron’s fault. 
 
Trying to predict the Crew’s offensive consistency, is a lot like trying to predict how many pounds of garbage it would take to make an entire city stink.  It’s pointless and nobody wants to know. 
 
If you are one of the many people who want Roenicke’s head to roll, just ask yourself this question:
 
If I was coaching the Brewers and we had a one run lead in the 9th inning, who do I send out to close the game?
 
That question SUCKS!!  And quite frankly, I don’t want to answer it.  Do you?  Can you imagine being in that position on Friday and Saturday night against the fricking Astros.  It is a lose/lose situation.  And if we can not stop the Astros offense from walk-off wins…who can we stop? 

Put quite simply, Brewers fans are better than regular fans.  This unnecessary assault on Ron Roenicke needs to stop.  We are not the Yankees, Phillies, or Red Sox.  Let’s not just assume that everything that is wrong with the team is the managers fault.  It is not his fault that management offered K-Rod arbitration, thus ending any hope of bringing back Hawkins and Saito.  It is not Ron’s fault that there is not a single pitcher in his bullpen that he can trust.   And it is certainly not his fault that this team has played flat and lifeless baseball from day one. 

My Dad always said, “If you dress a turd in a tuxedo, it is still a turd.”  The 2012 Brewers are lucky to even have a tuxedo.  I think that any skipper should be given at least 3 season, unless that manager is Ken Macha.  In my next piece (due next week), I will share with you why I think the Brewers are in a prime position for making a run in 2013.  And I would be extremely disappointed in Brewers management if Ron Roenicke was not a part of that.

Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Mike Fiers is D-E-A-L-I-N-G Photo: Benny Sieu-US PRESSWIRE

This is something that Brewers management needs to be asking themselves right now.  And if you are asking me?  The answer to that question is YES!  And this article will have many opinions and Lou oriented hearsay…no one will blame you if you turn back now. 

After what we saw yesterday, Mike Fiers talent can not be denied.  The kid has no fear.  To no-hit the Reds through 6 complete innings is nothing to turn your nose up at.  Shaun Marcum has not pitched for almost 2 months and has never really “wowed” me.  Mike Fiers “wowed” me yesterday.  So that makes it a quick 1 to nothing. 

Marcum will be a free agent at seasons end.  This is a fact.  He will probably fetch upwards of $10-$12 million a season, from a team looking to over spend on a middle of the rotation starter.  My thoughts are still along the lines of…the Brewers will throw everything they can at Zack Greinke to get him to come back.  It would be one of the biggest coups in baseball if we snag Zack back.  That would leave Shaun playing second fiddle, which will piss him off, which will give him road rage, which will cause him to drive his car into Miller Park, which will cause him to burn it to the ground, which will cause him to sign with the Cubs, because he is the type of guy a team like that will spend money on…and jerks play for the Cubs.  I’m not saying Marcum is a jerk, but if he drove his car into Miller Park and burned it to the ground, he would clearly be a baby bear loving jerk.  

Mike Fiers will cost us almost nothing (for a few years anyway) and he has shown me enough for me to believe that he can be a dominant pitcher in this league.  After his first few starts, I was very skeptical of the kid.  There was no doubt that he could pitch at the major league level, but I was concerned about his delivery and stamina.  There was something so herky-jerky about his delivery.  Plus he has kind of a small frame, so I thought maybe he would be better suited for long relief.  I no longer believe any of those things, it was a phase, like POGS or Tamagatchi.   

In 12 major league starts, the kid is 6-4 with a 1.80.  This is something we all know by now.  It has been all over the news.  Have you not seen it?  Well…it’s true, so accept it. 

Fiers has thrown 80 innings already this season and strikes out 1 batter per inning.  That is not just a rookie getting lucky.  Mike’s delivery is very deceiving and a little bit jerky, I want to compare it to Tim Lincecum…but Fiers looks much more graceful.  I think that a large part of his success comes from his ability to hide the baseball prior to delivery.  As he rears back, the ball drops almost behind his thigh and then he brings it down, over the top of his body arch.  This delivery makes his off-speed stuff crippling to batters.  Yesterday he got Brandon Phillips to drop to one knee after a swing and miss.  Whatever Fiers is doing, it works and we should continue to encourage it. 

Now, why does Fiers make Marcum expendable?  Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf, Chris Narveson, and Marco Estrada.  That’s how. 

In my opinion, Mike Fiers is a solid #2 starter going into next season.  He is a perfect compliment to Yo and a wonderful lead in for Wolf.  Should we not get Greinke or Marcum back, I feel very confident in the rotation referenced above.  Let’s not forget that we still have some absolute flame throwing studs in the minors.  They will not be held down for much longer. 

Mike Fiers is a cheaper, younger, more marketable option.  Oh, I’m sorry…did I hurt your feelings by reminding you that baseball is a business?  Mike Fiers is a marketing gold mine!  His name alone will spurn all kinds of amazing t-shirts and signs. ”We Didn’t Start the Fiers”  “Fiers Down Below”  “Then you add in that amazingly well crafted facial hair?!?!?  This guy is everything a front office could possibly want.  Shaun Marcum is kind of bland…he probably fit in better in Canada. 

Look, I like Shaun Marcum.  He is not a bad pitcher, but I would rather we save the money and spend it elsewhere.  By comparison, Marcum only threw 82.1 innings before getting injured.  His stats were as follows: 5-3 record, 3.39 ERA, 31 ER (Fiers has 16), 10 HR’s, 26 walks, and 77 strikeouts.  In my mind it is a bit of a wash right now, but it is certainly not worth dropping a lot of coin to keep Marcum around. 

Mike Fiers has made me feel very good about the future of this team, although his offense leaves something to be desired.  This team could still contend for the NL Central next season.  I honestly and truly believe that.  If Doug Melvin guts the bullpen, figures out what to do with Mat Gamel (Corey Hart should be our 1st baseman, end of discussion), and can get Rickie Weeks to not suck …we might really have something to cheer for in 2013.  Unfortunately, this season is lost.  That does not mean we can not watch some of the young kids play and see what the future holds.

On an unrelated note, Jean Segura is awesome.  I am a fan.  His future is so bright….he will have to wear shades.

It’s obvious that something to needs to change.

Ron Roenicke held a closed-door meeting early this morning with his bullpen staff to try and get that change moving.

Not that it helped, obviously – as the Brewers bullpen blew a lead AGAIN today in a 7-6 loss to close out another series at the wrong end of the broom.

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If you missed part one, here is the link.  However, I know how lazy many of you are (beer and sausage, does not a motivator make), so here is a quick re-cap:

I nominated Jeff Suppan because he sucked and took our money, and Guillermo Mota because he sucked and has been busted for steroids (cough medicine according to the man himself) twice.

This week, I asked RtB Editor (and resident Brewers expert) Colin Bennett to grace us all with two nominees.  He did not disappoint, but we are going to have a very pitcher heavy nominee class.  Let’s get right into it.

Eric Gagne -   For years on end, there was no one in baseball more dominant at his position than Eric Gagne. Over the course of three seasons Gagne recorded a total of 84 consecutive saves. Then something happened – well actually a lot of things happened. The biggest being his mention in the 2007 Mitchell Report on Performance Enhancing Drugs. There was that, and the fact that one year later he joined the Brewers and completely obliterated any hopes of a future career.

Colin’s Overall Grade: D+

Brewers Stats:

Eric Gagne’s 2008 Line went something like this:  4-3 record, a 5.44 ERA, made 50 appearances, 46.1 innings of work, 28 earned runs, 11 home runs, 22 walks, and his middle name is Serge.  Not relevant to baseball…but still funny.

Eric Gagne’s 2008 postseason line: 2 games, 2 innings pitched, no runs, and 1 strikeout

While the stats themselves may not be terrible, let us consider that he started the 2008 season as our closer, but then he blew 3 saves in 6 attempts and Yost pulled the plug.  It got worse though, as Gagne was later removed from the set-up role after several lackluster outings.  He was replaced by Guillermo Mota, a fellow HOBWWM nominee.

Money/Contract: 

If my memory serves me correctly, Gagne had a nickname that should just about sum this part of his qualifications up.  We used to call him “The Ten Million Dollar Mistake”.  Do you all remember that?  I sure do.  What were the Brewers thinking?  This guy was so washed up at this point, that sea shells were jealous.  I doubt that any other nominee will even come close to Gagne in this category, he is the #1 loser in this category without a doubt.  $10 million dollars for a mid-5′s ERA…money well spent. 

Like-ability:

Gagne is very well liked by his teammates and by the media. In fact, the guy has a reputation for being a terrific mentor and teacher to young pitchers throughout his career.  When his name was revealed in the Mitchell Report, Gagne immediately held a press conference and said the following:

I’m not denying it. I’m not saying I did it. I just can’t talk about it. It’s a touchy subject. It doesn’t just involve me. I’ve been straightforward about everything. It [stinks] that I can’t be about this. I’m not looking for sympathy anyway. I have to live with this the rest of my life. I’m going to have to explain this to my kids. It’s going to be on my resume the rest of my life.

Is Gagne a bad guy?  Hard to know, that is why we are leaving it up to all of you.

Colin’s Closing Thoughts:

In the course of just a few seasons, Eric Gagne became a man who specialized in snatching losses from the jaws of victory. He had seven blown saves in 2008, and four blown leads which is a stat I think Baseball-Reference came up with just to twist the knife on Gagne. He wasn’t terrible in 2008 and the team was 34-16 with him in the game, but Gagne was directly involved in all 16 of those losses. He had obviously lost his stuff and his signing was in the tail-end of Milwaukee’s mad dash for aging stars, and it was apparent that he just wasn’t going to fit. If anything positive really did come from Gagne’s career as a Brewer, it was the fact that he bought me (and like 10,000 other fans) tickets to a game where Ryan Braun hit a walk-off grand slam. Thanks, buddy.

Dave Bush -  Dave Bush is about as forgettable a pitcher as you will find in this day and age. In his career as a starting pitcher, Bush lost 13 more games than he won, had an ERA of 4.70, and is one of only 3 pitchers in the history of baseball to give up back-to-back-to-back-to back home runs. That will be his legacy. Is it any wonder that he found his way onto this list.

Colin’s Overall Grade: D

Stats:

DB’s pitching Line as a Brewer:  46-53 record, 4.80 ERA, started 144 games, logged 870 innings, allowed 910 hits, 464 earned runs, 129 home runs, 232 walks, and 605 strikeouts. 

DB’s playoff Line:  This is a little surprising… 1-0 record, in 1 appearance (only series win of the 2008 NLDS), pitched 5.1 innings, gave up 1 run, and struck out 3 batters. 

While his regular season numbers are…well, terrible.  I always forget that he won the team it’s first playoff game since 1982, so at least he has that to hang his hat on.  I feel like that one game will not be enough to save him from being inducted into “The Hall”.  

He also flirted with 2 no-hitters as a Brewer: once in 2008 against the Blue Jays (broken up in the 8th inning) and again in 2009 against the Phillies (broken up after 7.1 innings). 

Money/Contract:

Over his 5 years in Milwaukee, Bush was paid a little over $11.5 million.  Which compared to the 1yr – $10 million that Gagne got, doesn’t seem to bad.  However, when you are paying a pitcher $4 million a season (’09 and ’10), a 13-22 record during that stretch just does not cut it. 

Bush was not the victim of the free-agent over-pay, like our 3 previous nominees.  The Brewers acquired Bush in a trade with the Blue Jays.  In 2006 and 2007 he actually had winning records as a starter for the Crew.  Then it slowly started to spiral downward.  Bush lost velocity and movement on all of his pitches and therefore is no longer in the major leagues.  Is anyone else noticing a theme here?

So far, Bush probably has the most favorable grade in this category (or least favorable, depending on how you look at it).  Dave was not a complete waste of money, is what I am really trying to say.  He had some moments and contributed…what he could. 

Like-ability:

Dave is a very like-able guy.  Very quiet and soft spoken, did a lot of charity work while he was in Milwaukee.  Never had anything bad to say about anyone.  I wish I had more for you on that front.  Dave Bush has a sterling reputation amongst players and media…so, I got nothin’.

Colin’s Final Thoughts:

Remember Dave Bush? Chances are that was because you bought tickets to a game he was pitching, and he probably lost that game. I only say that because in 144 games started in Milwaukee, Bush lost 56 of them. 56. In his best years, Dave Bush only managed to have a game over a .500 record. I know records don’t account for much, but his is still pretty awful. His lowest loss total with Milwaukee came in 2009, when he went 5-9 in a season shortened by injury, and I assume, a lack of ability to get batters out. Among active pitchers, Bush has the tenth highest Walks per Nine Innings rating which is impressive considering that he isn’t playing Major League ball in 2012. I assume Dave Bush is now somewhere nice and quiet where he can spend his days growing his scraggly uneven beard and practice hitting the broad side of a barn.