Players from across the pond that have turned into stars include names like Ichiro, Hideo Nomo, Hideki Matsui, and, most recently,

Aoki is poised for another productive season in right field. (Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports)

Yu Darvish. Daisuke Matsuzaka and Kosuke Fukudome represent a large inability to live up to the hype (and money). Matsuzaka and his mythical gyroball created for arguably the most anticipated Japanese player signing when Boston brought him over in 2007, but following two seasons and a 33-15 record, “Dice-K” was paid $10 million to have a 8.28 earned run average last season; Fukudome, meanwhile, is now back playing in Japan after his four-year, $48 million tenure with the Cubs fell through rapidly.

For the first time in the Doug Melvin tenure, Milwaukee actively pursued what would be referred to as a “transfer” in the soccer world in Norichika Aoki. With the Darvish signing in Texas, the Brewers’ acquisition of Aoki went largely unnoticed–until he started playing, that is.

The expectations of Aoki,31, were nothing near the weight of the century-long championship-starved franchise that was placed on Fukudome or the markings of “the next Ichiro” put on Kazuo Matsui. He joined an already-crowded outfield featuring the reigning MVP, the franchise right fielder since 2007, the fan favorite and playoff hero coming off a career year, and a speedy defensive whiz in center.

Thus, when Aoki stole thirty bases, hit .288 and had a .355 OBP, it was something not seen coming. Injuries to half the team (or just about, essentially) and a sudden transformation from Tony Plush to Tony Hush gave the fastest player to reach 500 hits in Japan a shot to play every day.

Now, the right field spot is his for, well, as long as he doesn’t regress, which may be an interesting case to watch.

On defense, Aoki has a good first step and instincts–often making for highlight reel plays–but lacks a strong arm. He saved 5 runs on defense yet had a -0.9 UZR, per Fangraphs. Basically, what we’re saying is you know you’ll get a sound defensive player.

AOKI POKIE! (Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports)

The most eye-catching part of Aoki’s 2012 rookie campaign was his amassing of infield hits.

His 34 infield hits led all of baseball, which doesn’t really match his .304 BABIP and all that is confusing to me, so pardon the run on sentence here. Digressing, 13.5 percent of all Aoki’s hits came via infield knocks, a number that in all likelihood should regress in 2013.

But Aoki won’t be completely useless without leading the league in infield hits, right?

Correct.

The Brewers have a guy who just knows how to get on base, deftly put. You can still expect 25 or more infield knocks, plus his ability to hit to all fields suits him well and helps keep him out of slumps. Only at 31, hitting isn’t the issue with Aoki, who is still only a few years removed from a batting title with the Yokult Swallows.

Furthermore, he will draw his fair share of walks and steal plenty of bases with Ron Roenicke as manager, suiting him well the for the two-slot in the order.

2013 RtB Predictions: .283/.360/.428, 155 G, 7 HR, 53 RBI, 27 SB, 88 R, 2.6 WAR, a plethora of #AokiPokie’s 

Follow @ReviewngTheBrew on Twitter and/or the author (and self-proclaimed most active Twitterist of the staff), Curt Hogg. Be sure to like us on Facebook, too, for more Brewers Season Outlook updates.

To view previous season outlooks, click here. To view last year’s previews, go here.

The Carlos Gomez swag is unreal. (Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports)

In honor of there only being thirty-nine (39!!!) days left until Opening Day, today’s season outlook belongs to center fielder Carlos Gomez. (The number 40 really has no correlation with Gomez, but it’s always a blast to title something in honor of someone.)

Last year, I missed the nail completely on the statistical predictions for last year’s Brewers, but one of the select few that I hit on the head was, indeed, predicting the speedy Gomez to be the breakout player of the year.

A breakout 2012 it was for the 27-year-old from the Dominican Republic. After falling short of the many claims of his raw talent for almost all of his five previous seasons between the Mets, Twins, and Brewers, Gomez showed more than just his blinding speed over the course of the season. Much more.

Gomez’s career high OPS entering the season .679 – accomplished the prior season with Milwaukee -, which he toppled with a .768 mark and a 102 OPS+, 20 points higher than the previous high.

Much of Gomez’s career year can be attributed to his shift from trying too hard to become the prototypical speedster center fielder, and playing like, well…, Carlos Gomez. No longer was he pressing to slap base hits to right or make a concerted effort to just hit ground balls and beat the throw; the free-swinging Gomez was not only allowed, but encouraged, to swing for the fences (career-high 19 homers) and still be able to use his speed to kill teams.

That speed comes in handy on the bases and while roaming the outfield. Gomez, long considered one of the fastest players in the game (he recently claimed to have clocked in at 3.8 seconds in a 40 yard dash and having run 10.8 meters in 100 seconds.), and stole 37 bases in 137 games. Per FanGraphs, he was over 6 baserunning runs above replacement value, good for 14th in the MLB.

#CarlosGomezBatFlip #GoGoGoByeBye (Rob Grabowski-USA TODAY Sports)

Defensively, it doesn’t come any better than Gomez. His first step takes him to the ball, and his straightaway speed allows him to catch up to balls that shouldn’t be caught up to. The numbers are just crazy. 18 defensive runs saved and 2.4 dWAR over two seasons–Gomez’s defensive WAR alone is higher than Phillies infielder Michael Young’s combined WAR over that same time period. His 72 plays made out of his zone rank fourth among MLB centerfielders; if he had the same amount of innings as the OTZ leader in center, it would have placed him second in the league behind the venerable Michael Bourn. Any and all defensive metrics (along with the good old highlight reels) agree that Carlos Gomez is a Gold Glove talent in center field.

From here, it can only get better for Go-Go. He still needs to take more walks – even if just a few while still swinging out of his shoes most of the time – and his BABIP indicated he could be due for some good luck, especially for a guy with his ability to fly to first. He doesn’t come into the year with a platoon of any sort; the center field job is his.

Aside from Ryan Braun, there may be no player more fun to watch on the team than Gomez.

2013 RtB Predictions: .255/.314/.401, 140 G, 486 PA, 14 HR, 56 RBI, 82 R, 33 SB, 3.0 WAR, a handful of beautiful #CarlosGomezBatFlips

Follow @ReviewngTheBrew on Twitter and/or the author (and self-proclaimed most active Twitterist of the staff), Curt Hogg. Be sure to like us on Facebook, too, for more Brewers Season Outlook updates.

To view previous season outlooks, click here. To view last year’s previews, go here.

Tha-Tha is “set” for a positive 2013 campaign. (Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports)

Brewer Nation also has a preview on the right-hander. Give that a look and you’ll have reached your daily dose of Marco!

To the song lyrics!

Oh Marco–I’m shallow
But I don’t want you to think
That you’re buying my love
With these things

While he may be unable to buy over singer Jane Siberry’s love, Brewers starting pitcher Marco Estrada’s emergence in 2012 won over the organization and its fans.

After being thrust into a starting role amidst a flurry of starting pitching injuries, Estrada, 29, went 5-7 with a 3.64 era (3.35 FIP), 1.14 WHIP, and a sparkling 4.93 K/BB ratio.

Estrada’s numbers were similar to fellow starting pitcher Mike Fiers after Fiers regressed from his white-hot start (yes, pun intended). Both used deceptive off-speed pitches and good command to post the two highest K-rates of all Brewers pitchers with at least 20 starts.  Marco’s changeup has shown to, at times, be one of (if not the) best single pitches of any player wearing the blue and gold jersey this spring.

Many believe – myself, among them – that 2013 is the year for Estrada to emerge as the number two starter that this rotation needs. At the helm is the undisputed ace, Yovani Gallardo, but behind him is a plethora of fresh faces. At only 32 career starts, Estrada holds the second most starts of the seven or so pitchers in contention for starting rotation spots.

Estrada delivers a pitch during his lights-out start against Chicago in August.  (Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports)

Drafted in 2005 by the Nationals and selected off waivers by Milwaukee in February 2010, Estrada command is key to his success. He’s not going to power by many hitters, but will rack up the strikeouts (a career 9.02 K/9) with a blend of fastballs, changeups, curves, and the very rare cutter.

Over his final eight starts to 2012, Estrada showed just exactly how dominant he can be. Taking out two rough starts, he gave up one earned run over a 41.2 inning span.

One.

This included a nine-strikeout, six-inning blanking of the Cubs in August; a one-run, ten strikeouts in seven innings against Pittsburgh; and an outstanding eight-inning, eleven-punchout shutout dominance against Houston in his final start. All in all, he held a 2.63 era in September over six starts, showing no fatigue at all.

If the youth movement at starting pitcher that Ron Roenicke and Doug Melvin are going with is to work, Estrada has to be a mainstay at the top of the rotation.

2013 RtB Predictions: 12-9, 30 GS, 195 IP, 3.87 ERA, 202 K, 40 BB, 2.7 WAR, one good lookin’ mohawk.

Follow @ReviewngTheBrew on Twitter and/or the author (and self-proclaimed most active Twitterist of the staff), Curt Hogg. Be sure to like us on Facebook, too, for more Brewers Season Outlook updates.

To view previous season outlooks, click here. To view last year’s previews, go here.

LUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU (Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports)

Welp.

Now that Gamel and his ill-fortuned ACL have thrown us a curveball, it’s time to adjust with some Jonathan Lucroy.

Jonathan, call again 
Take me to Coney Island 
Take me on the train 
Kiss me while I calculate

Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy, 26, is on the verge of establishing himself as one of the game’s top catchers.

On a team faced with many questions this spring training, Lucroy is one of the few sure-things coming into camp. Last season, he batted .320/.368/.513 with 12 homers and 58 RBI in an injury-derailed 96-game season. Before his injury in late May, Lucroy was on an absolute tear, placing among league leaders with a .345 batting average and .969 OPS, appearing to be All-Star Game bound in only his second season as starting catcher.

Lucroy’s power numbers jolted last year as he became more comfortable with big league pitching. He went deep 12 times (the same total as the year before, but in 122 fewer plate appearances), his HR/FB rate went up a whole point, and his isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average) sat at .193 compared to the .126 of 2011. He’s hitting more fly balls and fewer infield fly balls, which leaves us with only one option. Add in Lucroy’s ability to drive the ball to any field and make a concerted effort to stay back and take pitches away to right, and there you have his jump in power numbers.

This increase in power, along with an uncanny knack for driving in runs, makes the 3rd round pick in 2007 a formidable heart of the order hitter. Among players with at least 100 plate appearances with runners in scoring position (RISP), Jonny Luke was second with a .389 average, driving in 50 runs in his 96 appearances those 106 tries (six of which were walks and two were hit by pitches). That comes to a 51% chance Lucroy would drive a runner in from scoring position in any at-bat, odds which suit him for the middle of the lineup well, even without scoreboard-popping homer totals.

Aug 20, 2012; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy (20) during the game against the Chicago Cubs at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

After hitting eighth for the majority of his first two seasons, Lucroy was moved to the middle of the order for much of 2012, a move that paid dividends for the Brewers. He hit .313 in the six slot – where he batted more than anywhere else (35 games) -, .355 in the five-hole, and was absolutely ridiculous in his three starts in the cleanup role. Until Corey Hart returns from his knee injury, expect Lucroy to fulfill the five hole behind Aramis Ramirez and Ryan Braun.

On May 20 against Minnesota, Lucroy went ballistic hitting cleanup against starter Jason Marquis and the rest of the staff. He hit two homers, including a grand slam in the seventh inning, and drove in seven runs. He finished the day with a 5-3-3-7 boxscore, one of the best single-game offensive outputs by a Brewer. Ever.

Then he pretty much did it again.

In a late August game in Wrigley Field, Lucroy jacked another grand slam and drove in seven runs, fueling an 11-run output by Milwaukee that afternoon.

Lucroy has proven himself offensively and is on the verge of establishing himself among the likes of Joe Mauer, Yadier Molina, and Buster Posey as one of the game’s top catchers. But offense isn’t the only part of his game, though.

On the defensive end, he’s a mainstay behind the plate. Pitchers feel comfortable throwing to Luke – particularly with breaking pitches. He saved 4.2 runs above average in blocked pitches, which I’m taking the liberty to view as a win created by Lucroy’s blocking. His throwing arm is the second-best in the Brewers’ catching rotation, but he saved 4 runs on defense, again a number helped by his ability to block pitches.

Hopefully, Jonny Boy also takes us to Coney Island, with a kiss while we calculate.

2013 RtB Predictions: 504 PA, .295/.355/.452, 20 HR, 81 RBI, 69 R, 6 SB, 4.0 WAR, proper suitcase precautions

Follow @ReviewngTheBrew on Twitter and/or the author (and self-proclaimed most active Twitterist of the staff), Curt Hogg. Be sure to like us on Facebook, too, for more Brewers Season Outlook updates.

To view previous season outlooks, click here. To view last year’s previews, go here.

Much ado about Taylor Green. (Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports)

Tryna get the Green like I’m waiting at a long light
broke just doesn’t suit me, girl, and every night is prom night

Brewers utility infielder Taylor Green has only played in 78 games spanning two seasons at the Major League level, but it sure feels like a heck of a lot more.

Drafted in the 25th round by Milwaukee in 2005, the former top hitting prospect in the organization broke through with Milwaukee in 2011, hitting .270 and earning a spot on the postseason roster despite only appearing in 20 games. Hopes were high entering 2012 for Green but a .184/.265/.340 slash line over 117 plate appearances didn’t get the job done as he was sent back and forth between Milwaukee and Triple-A Nashville.

Just a year after it seemed that Green, 26, would be a mainstay in the Brewers infield for years, there is much uncertainty surrounding what, in fact, the organization wants to do with him.

Green watches a three-run homer fly out of Miller Park, one of his three on the year (Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports)

As for this spring, the British Columbia, Canada, native is in a battle for one of the reserve infield spots available. Unlike much of his competition – Bobby Crosby, Donnie Murphy, and Alex Gonzalez, to be specific – Green has the option of spending time in the minors again if he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster. With Aramis Ramirez, Jean Segura, Rickie Weeks, and Mat Gamel (knee withstanding) locks for the 25-man roster and Corey Hart set to open the season on the disabled list, the competition for the other two, maybe three spots (Ron Roenicke’s preference being the independent variable here) are down to the following: Green, Crosby, Murphy, Gonzalez, Jeff Bianchi, and Scooter Gennett.

If the Brewers go with Green, they’ll be adding a left-handed bat to come off the bench in most games. He is a .270/.357/.570 hitter with all three of his career homers coming as a substitute compared to only batting .184 as a starter. Compared to Gamel – Hart’s expected fill-in at first – Green is a plus defender, but, overall, is nothing flashy on defense. He has the versatility to play first, second, and third base at a respectable level, meaning he’ll give you replacement-level fielding and could flash some pop at the plate, but could become a liability in the lineup.

After years of riding the buses, this should all-in-all be Green’s first full Big League season; in addition to that, however, it could be Green’s make-or-break year with the Brewers. He had one of the best seasons by any Brewers minor leaguer in recent memory with Nashville in 2011 (.336 average, .997 OPS, 22 home runs) and has done what it takes to make the majors.

One of the many competitions happening in Maryvale this spring for Milwaukee, the battle for the final infield spots lacks a strong threshold of upside for the most part, and Green gives the Brewers the best chance at having a player to come off the bench and help win games off all the names mentioned. Expect to see him on the Opening Day roster, wedging in a start or two every week.

2013 RtB Predictions: 303 PA, .251/.313/.402, 8 HR, 38 RBI, 30 R, 5 SB, eyes of steel.

Follow @ReviewngTheBrew on Twitter and/or the author (and self-proclaimed most active Twitterist of the staff), Curt Hogg. Be sure to like us on Facebook, too, for more Brewers Season Outlook updates.

To view previous season outlooks, click here. To view last year’s previews, go here.

]]> http://reviewingthebrew.com/2013/02/17/brewers-2013-season-outlook-taylor-green/feed/ 0 http://reviewingthebrew.com/2013/02/16/brewers-2013-season-outlook-jim-henderson/ http://reviewingthebrew.com/2013/02/16/brewers-2013-season-outlook-jim-henderson/#comments Sat, 16 Feb 2013 20:44:31 +0000 Curt Hogg http://reviewingthebrew.com/?p=6739 Last year, I took to the keyboard with the Milwaukee Brewers season outlook series, previewing the upcoming 2012 season for each individual player. The series runs player-by-players season previews of each ballplayer expected to make a contribution for Milwaukee this season. In hindsight, I was way too high on Brooks Conrad and the staff refuses [...]

Brewers 2013 Season Outlook: Jim Henderson - Reviewing the Brew - Reviewing the Brew - A Milwaukee Brewers Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More

Last year, I took to the keyboard with the Milwaukee Brewers season outlook series, previewing the upcoming 2012 season for each

Gentleman Jim Henderson is poised for his second major league season. (Image: Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports)

individual player. The series runs player-by-players season previews of each ballplayer expected to make a contribution for Milwaukee this season.

In hindsight, I was way too high on Brooks Conrad and the staff refuses to let go of that missed call (the RtB Fantasy League is named Dibs on Brooks Conrad), but calls on players like Carlos Gomez and Norichika Aoki were hit right on the head.

Jim Henderson – not previewed last year – may have been the largest surprise on a Brewers team that was full of surprises, both good and bad.

After ten years in the minor leagues between three organizations, “Gentleman Jim” was finally recalled to the Major Leagues on July 29 last season; he had been in the minors ever since being drafted by the Montreal Expos (how’s that for perspective?). He pitched a scoreless inning in a blowout loss to the Washington Nationals, striking out the first batter he faced, Roger Bernadina. Amidst the bullpen turmoil that arose, Henderson was promoted to closer within his first three weeks as a Brewer.

Over his 36 apperances, Henderson looked nothing like a ten-year minor leaguer called up as bullpen patchwork during (what was) a lost season. He missed bats (over 13 K’s per nine innings) with his two-pitch fastball/slider combo, and, when he was hit off of, he kept the ball down and in the park (only one homer allowed).

Good job, good effort, Jimbo. (Image: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports)

Henderson, a 6-foot-5, wiry right hander from Calgary, Alberta, Canada is in a viable position to open the season as the seventh inning man in Ron Roenicke’s bullpen with a reasonable shot at being the set up man. The Brewers showed confidence in Henderson for the future, as he and fellow Canadian John Axford were the only relievers retained from last year’s bullpen disaster.

After posting a 3.52 earned run average, 14 holds, huge strikeout numbers, 1.0 WAR, and team-high 1.95 FIP while sporting the number 51 jersey, Gentleman Jim stayed true to his namesake, giving up his jersey number to incoming LOOGy Michael Gonzalez. Henderson will be wearing the number 29 on the back of his jersey this season.

Henderson will be a vital arm in a much revamped 2013 bullpen. The likes of Gonzalez, Burke Badenhop, and Tom Gorzelanny will help carry the load before setting up for John Axford in the ninth. His strength against right handed hitters – a .497 OPS against righties stemming from the sharp, mid-80′s slider – especially compared to his struggles against lefties is only helped with the additions of southpaws Gonzalez and Gorzelanny.

2013 RtB Prediction: 71 G, 63.2 IP, 3-5, 3.94 ERA, 80 K, 31 BB, 1.3 WAR, no more frozen beards. 

 

Want to join the RtB Fantasy league? Follow @ReviewngTheBrew on Twitter and tweet #LetMePlay at us and/or the author (and self-proclaimed most active Twitterist of the staff), Curt Hogg. Be sure to like us on Facebook, too, for constant updates.

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