I normally don’t offer editorial and opinionated pieces, but I’ll take up this space to flat out say I can’t stand losing to St. Louis and to

Let's take a moment and humor ourselves over Lance Berkman's uncoordination. (Image: Benny Sieu-US PRESSWIRE)

extend to Brewers fans a Happy Cardinals Unappreciation Week.

With the Brewers needing a 1951 New York Giants-like comeback to make the postseason, so these three games at Busch Stadium over the weekend may not have October implications, but that doesn’t make beating the Cardinals feel any less sweet or make losing less heart-wrenching. And with Yovani Gallardo not pitching in the series, the Brewers aren’t automatically destined to lose at least one game because he, well, forgets how to pitch when he sees red.

Let’s face it: the Brewers are going to lose multiple times over the remainder of the season. But let’s save those bad games for the Reds or Pirates or anybody not named the Cardinals.

Reviewing the Brew: 2011 NLCS: St. Louis 4, Milwaukee 2. 2012 World Series: St. Louis 4, Texas 3. Go ahead and take a few moments to brag as I flash images in my brain of Shaun Marcum giving up gopher ball after gopher ball.

Redbirds Rant: Yeah, David Freese called and said to tell Shaun Marcum he’s the best.

Oct 16, 2011; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Shaun Marcum (18) reacts after giving up a three-run home run to St. Louis Cardinals third baseman David Freese (23) in the first inning of game six of the 2011 NLCS at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-US PRESSWIRE

RtB: Now let’s address the elephant in the NL Central, or lack thereof, right away. How does St. Louis rebound after losing Albert Pujols, both offensively and defensively.

RR: Obviously, when you lose the best hitter of a generation you’re team will suffer.  I think John Mozeliak did the best job possible to “replace” Pujols.  He didn’t make the big splashy move, but signing Carlos Beltran was a nice pickup.  Lance Berkman needs to have a good year and I think Allan Craig if he’s healthy will get a lot of time.  I think it was a better play to go strength in numbers rather than one huge piece.

RtB: David Freese was obviously the October hero for the Cards. What can we expect to see from him in 2012?

RR: If Freese is healthy, he should be a very productive player.  He’s not gonna go crazy and put up the numbers he did in the playoffs, however a .280-20-85 season isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

RtB: Name one player on the Cardinals we may not know too much about, but should start paying close attention to this season.

RR: I think John Jay is someone to watch.  If he plays well, Beltran can play more in right and Craig can play second.  If he doesn’t, Beltran has to play center, which given his injury history may not be the best idea.  Craig would be in right and then Greene at second.  The defense suffers with Craig at second; however you can replace him late in games.

RtB: How much will having SP Adam Wainwright back after missing 2011 because of reconstructive elbow surgery help the pitching staff?

RR: Any time you add an ace it’s a good thing.  Given Carpenter’s nerve issues, a healthy Wainwright is key for the Cardinals to have success in 2012.  If he doesn’t pitch well and Carpenter misses a significant chunk of the season I don’t believe the Cards will reach October.

RtB: Who is the dark horse in the Cardinals rotation?

RR: I’m not sure there is a dark horse. I think the rotation is Carpenter, Wainwright, Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook.  I think two guys to watch for at some point this season are Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller.  I think Lynn will be given first crack to replace Carpenter in the rotation. Miller, I believe at some point in 2012 will be in the starting five.  Don’t sleep on Roy Oswalt either being a Redbird by July.

RtB: Mike Matheny is obviously filling some big shoes with the retirement of Tony LaRussa. What different kind of managing styles does he bring?

RR: I think Matheny won’t change pitchers as much as LaRussa does.  I think Matheny may hit and run more and he may need to without that Pujols guy.  I also think he will evolve as the season goes on and we may not get a good read on his style until maybe next year.

RtB: As a Brewers fan, I, of course, love Nyjer Morgan’s antics. As a Cards fan, what’s your perspective on T. Plush?

RR: I think every team needs a T.Plush kind of character. I think Marlins fans don’t like him either http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CR87fyd794k .  I think in a lot of ways he’s the heart and soul and if you can shut him down you can shut down the Brewers. He reminds in a lot of ways of Sean Avery.

RtB: Now let’s get down to business. Who’s your pick to win the NL Central?

RR:  The Astros.  (Just kidding) I think the Reds actually will win the division.  I think top to bottom even without Madson they are loaded but I think the Cardinals will be involved in the first ever wild card play in game versus the Marlins.

Follow Jason on Twitter @jasonpevans and subscribe to Redbird Rants, your FanSided home for all Cardinals news and opinion. 

Oct 28, 2011; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals team celebrating their victory in game seven of the 2011 World Series against the Texas Rangers at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-US PRESSWIRE

With Opening Day for 28 teams now a week away, at the most, it’s time to make predictions for the 2012 season. Each writer here at Reviewing the Brew submitted their picks for division winners, Playoff predictions, and World Series winner solely for the purpose of humiliating ourselves come October. I also picked teams out of a baseball cap for the sake of having some fun.

Without further ado, here are our picks:

(P.S.- I swear, the hat has a mind of its own. You’ll find out why.)

*- winner of the Wild Card playoff game indicated in italics. 

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And exciting as they were, the series left a bit to be desired as the Brewers really had a good chance to win, particularly following Jim Edmonds’ lead-off double in the 11th inning. However, botched plays all around ensued and no run was scored until the Cardinals sealed it up in the bottom half of the inning.

There are no moral victories, and the Brewers are no further back in the race then they have been at any point this season and are notably absent of any hope beyond “they can’t play this badly, ALL YEAR.”

Let me restate that I will be using some advanced statistics pretty regularly in this blog, and one of the most useful for recapping what happened (not what WILL happen) is WPA, or Win Probability Added. Here is a link to a FanGraphs post that gives a brief rundown of what it is and has links to much more material.

Top Shelf (Star of the Series): None

No Brewers hitter had a WPA over .100 which really should be the baseline for any series award, since single game performances of .140 and up are just about commonplace. The biggest reason for the lowly offensive numbers: Wainwright, who managed to allow only TWO Brewer hitters a positive WPA, as Rickie Weeks and Cory Hart both had .015 on the day. Over the final two games the biggest standout was probably Casey McGehee, but he was also one of the worst victims from Friday night, accumulating a -.090 WPA.

It was bad, Tommy, REAL bad.

On the Rail (Schmoe of the Series): Alcides Escobar (-.222 WPA) and Craig Counsell (-.236 WPA)

Escobar single handedly turned Saturday’s hopeful 11th inning with that botched bunt, that he popped out to first, which alone is enough to earn a spot here when you do absolutely nothing at the plate the rest of the series (1-9). So, he’s a goat.

However, the worst series and game at the plate undeniably belonged to Counsell, who turned in his lousy WPA in only two games and six PA, going 0-6 in a bunch of high leverage situations.

John Axford was asking for a spot here, but redeemed his awful Saturday with an impressive Sunday showing. Carlos Villanueva had a similar situation, just reversed.

There were obviously a ton of managerial decisions that could be questioned here as well, but I’m saving those for a later post, as Ken Macha truly deserves one.

I don’t have a ton to say about this series, since it essentially went as it should have and the two close games, while exciting, just don’t have a key point to focus on, without blasting the bullpen for the 40th straight post.

Mercifully, the Crew have the day off today. We’ll have our series preview for Milwaukee’s home series with Chicago in the next 24 hours or so.

Sláinte!

I guess there is a ton you could say about

So playing the Central Division co-leaders and perennial NL pennant threat St. Louis on the road, in a park that is as unfriendly to the Brewers’ current style of play (all offense, no pitching) as almost any in the majors… It’s hard to be excited about their chances this weekend, especially with Yovani Gallardo not making an appearance. Let’s look at the numbers:

Stadium: Busch Stadium
Five-year Run Park Factor: 0.97
Five-year HR Park Factor: 0.92
Stadium Dimensions:
Left Field: 330 ft.
Left-Center: 372
Center Field: 402
Right-Center: 372
Right Field: 330

Projected Pitching Matchups

May 14: Randy Wolf (L) vs. Adam Wainwright (R)
May 15: Chris Narveson (L) vs. Adam Ottavino (R)
May 16: Dave Bush (R) vs. Jaime Garcia (L)

Okay, so here’s a word on what this means: ERA is something we are all familiar with, but too often it just isn’t indicative enough of how well or poorly a pitcher has done. FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is a much better tool, and best yet it is rated to correspond to ERA. So you don’t have to think about the numbers any differently. A 3.00 ERA and a 3.00 FIP both mean a good pitcher.

In case you care, here is the FIP equation:

FIP = ( (13 * HR) + (3 * (BB + HBP – IBB) ) – (2 * K) ) / IP + Constant

Note: The constant is found by calculating the FIP (without the constant). You then take the league average FIP and subtracting that from the league average ERA. This number is typically around 3.2 and I will use that example for the remainder of the article.

Essentially, FIP is just an equation taking baserunners, home runs allowed and strikeouts, the three things a pitcher has the most control over and puts them together in an ERA form. It helps limit the damage done by poor defense or the help given by good luck. xFIP is pretty much the same thing, but instead of home runs factors in home run to fly ball ratio. This makes it a bit more accurate.

I’ve included ERA since it is more familiar, but especially in terms of a prediction of future performance (i.e. this series) xFIP is just a better barometer of what to expect.

So, in looking at Doug Davis, you can see his unsightly ERA and think “Boy, he’s been lousy this year.” However, his xFIP suggests he’s just been a bit below average and very unlucky, as he has an unreasonably low 58 percent strand rate (the average is around 72 percent) and an absurd BABIP of .415, about .100 points north of his career average.

So, you can expect Davis to be better (not very good, mind you, but better) going forward.

Meanwhile, Jaime Garcia has an xFIP that says he is a good pitcher, and much improved… but an ERA champion? No. We’re just waiting for that other shoe to drop. Hopefully it’ll be on Sunday, right? (Actually, I hope not, but only because I’m starting Garcia in my fantasy league. I’ll root for a St. Louis pen meltdown.)

*Obviously, Jim Edmonds has been getting quite a bit of playing time, so I’ll include his breaks here too, though I find it highly unlikely for him to play against a left-hander barring injury:

So that leaves us with a prediction:

St. Louis is simply a much better team. However on Saturday, the Brewers have as close to a favorable matchup as they are going to get with Ottavino on the mound. If the powerful Crew lineup shows up then, I see a good chance to steal a game. However, beating either of Wainwright or Garcia with Wolf or Davis doesn’t seem likely at all to me.

I’ll be optimistic and predict one win in three for the Crew.

Sláinte!

The St. Louis Cardinals got some timely hitting from Nick Stavinoha who drove in two of the Cardinal runs as they edge the Milwaukee Brewers by a score of 3-2. The Cards also got a great pitching performance from Todd Wellemeyer and the bullpen which is something the Cards have gotten all season long so far.

Frank Catalanotto two out triple in the fourth inning tied the score 2-2 for the Brewers, but that was all they could get against the Cards staff. In this series the Brewers have struck out a total of 27 times. When you do not put the ball into play it makes it tough to win games. This marks the first time Milwaukee has been out of first place in the last two weeks as well.

J.J Hardy was back in the lineup as well and went 3 for 5. Bill Hall and Corey Hart are both struggling  and had the day off. Milwaukee really needs Hall and Hart to start hitting if they hope to contend this year. I was happy with the pitching for the most part in this series the hitting was not where it needs to be. Friday Milwaukee welcomes in the Reds as the Brewers have Thursday off and they need it to rest up and get healthy.