Corey Hart knows what it takes to be clutch. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

If you don’t know what sabermetrics is, read “Moneyball”, a fantastic book by Michael Lewis about the renowned statistician Bill James and the first major league baseball general manager to give his winning formula a go, Billy Beane. To sum it up, sabermetrics is the mathematical and statistical analysis of baseball records.

Sabermetrics goes far beyond the simple statistics, like batting average and slugging percentage, of which the everday baseball fan is aware. It calculates Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Runs Above Replacement (RAR) and just how clutch a player is, among other things.

According to FanGraphs, “clutch measures how well a player performed in high leverage situations.” In other words, if a player hits .270 in high-level situations when he’s an overall .270 hitter he is not considered clutch. He has to perform at a greater level in pressure situations to be labeled as clutch. Clutch takes a look at the past but doesn’t do a very good job of predicting the future; because a player is clutch at one point doesn’t mean he will continue to produce that way.

Clutch is a metric based on win expectancy and is calculated as such:

Clutch = (Win Probability Added/Player’s Average Leverage Index) – Win Probability Added/Leverage Index

-Win Probability Added measures how individual players affect their team’s win expectancy on a per-play basis.
-Player’s Average Leverage Index is a player’s average leverage index for all game events.
-Leverage Index is measure of how important a particular situation is in a baseball game depending on the inning, score, outs, and number of players on base.

To clarify, pLI (player’s average leverage index) refers to the average leverage index of all game events for a given player while WPA (win probability added)/LI (leverage index) refers to context neutral wins.

Below is the Clutch rating chart:

Courtesy of FanGraphs.com

Having a high clutch score doesn’t necessarily mean you’re an All-Star. Mike Trout (-0.19) and Miguel Cabrera (-1.45) had demoralizing clutch scores last season, but they still battled for MVP. Clutch score demonstrates who can continuously produce at a higher level than usual at the biggest moments of the game to propel their team to victory.

Jimmy Rollins, a man who is stratospheres away from his prime, led the league with a 2.35 Clutch score in 2012, despite hitting only .250. But Rollins’ WPA was 3.14 which is considered great on the scoring scale. With runners in scoring position, the shortstop hit .277 including .333 with the bases loaded. Even though hitting .277 with RISP isn’t anything noteworthy, he still performed at a higher level during high-pressure situations and therefore, is clutch.

Despite common thought, Ryan Braun is not the definition of clutch. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

In regards to the Milwaukee Brewers, when you think of who is clutch, your mind probably immediately races to Ryan Braun. You would be wrong. Dead wrong, in fact. In 2012, Braun had a clutch score of -0.63 which is below average. He had an outstanding 4.67 WPA but his average Leverage Index of .98 was below the norm. Sure, he batted .319 but his average with RISP was lower (.307).

The Brewer with the highest clutch score in 2012 was none other than Corey Hart. He accumulated a score of 1.35, good enough for seventh in all of baseball. He had a WPA/LI of .062, a WPA of 2.01, and a pLI of 1.02. Granted, his clutch score rose dramatically on September 1st  when he blasted a walk-off home run against the Pittsburgh Pirates and, if he had played an entire season (149 games in 2012), his score might be a bit lower. But this just shows how important Hart is to the Brewers lineup. The next Brewer on the leaderboard isn’t until No. 34 - Aramis Ramirez with a clutch score of 0.68.

With Hart set to miss a month-plus, who will fill the clutch void? Do the Brewers need to address this or is it a meaningless statistic?

-All statistics and definitions courtesy of FanGraphs.com

Leave comments and questions below! Follow Justin and @ReviewngTheBrew on Twitter. Be sure to like us on Facebook, too.

Mat Gamel’s days in Milwaukee could be over. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

If there’s a baseball player with worse luck than Mat Gamel, I have yet to find him.

The Brewers first baseman is set to miss the 2013 season after tearing his surgically repaired anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee for the second consecutive year, which brings up a thought-provoking question: Are his days in Milwaukee coming to an end?

Gamel, 27, has yet to reach his full potential as a major league ballplayer and is on the verge of following the dangerous path of Matt LaPorta – another former top Brewers prospect who failed to transfer his minor-league game to the next level. Gamel owns a career .304 batting average with 105 home runs and 503 RBI’s across seven minor league seasons. However, his major league stats tell a different story. In 106 games, he has produced an inexcusable .229 batting average and has 27 fewer hits than strikeouts.

To be fair, Gamel was never given a chance to be an everyday player until the departure of Prince Fielder in 2012. But when his opportunity arose, an unforseen ACL tear squashed it after only 21 games. The same goes for 2013 – another shot to prove his capabilities, another knee letdown.

Milwaukee will have a difficult decision on their hands, a decision that will be made easier if they re-sign free agent-to-be Corey Hart. If Hart returns in 2014, Gamel would either be waived or placed on the bench, occasionally filling in at first base and in the outfield. Hunter Morris would then become his main competition, which would make Gamel the underdog. The young first base prospect has the tools to be what Gamel and LaPorta never were; successful. Another scenario the Brewers may attempt is to dangle him as trade bait and see if any teams bite. There has to be at least one general manager who still has faith in him.

Gamel will have to start from square one after re-tearing his ACL. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Gamel, who is making somewhere around $500,000 this season, will be arbitration eligible at the end of the year, but don’t be surprised if the Brewers refuse to offer him a contract. Although he will come at a very low cost, Doug Melvin may still not be willing to pay him anymore than they already have, since they have yet to get the bang for their buck (not to mention Morris will be even cheaper).

Mat Gamel’s career as a Milwaukee Brewer may be coming to an end, due to lack of production and a whole bunch of bad luck. His potential is still there, but I for one, am sick of waiting for it to show up. Hopefully with Hart stationed at first and Morris in the wings, I won’t have to bide my time much longer.

Would you like to see Mat Gamel back with the Brewers in 2014? Leave comments and questions below! Follow Justin and @ReviewngTheBrew on Twitter. Be sure to like us on Facebook, too.

That would leave the right fielder and first baseman out for three to four months, missing opening day and taking another veteran offensive player out of the lineup for Opening Day for the Milwaukee Brewers. But according to Assistant General Manager Gord Ash and the Milwaukee Brewers website, there is word that Corey Hart sent the MRI originally taken of his knee to a doctor in Colorado for a second opinion.

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Apr 22, 2012; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Mat Gamel (24) drives in a run with a double in the fourth inning against Colorado Rockies catcher Ramon Hernandez (55) at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Gamel, who was once considered a top prospect in the Brewers organization, has failed to show off his talent in the big leagues. Last season, he was all set to replace the departed Prince Fielder and become the everyday first baseman. He arrived at Spring Training stronger than ever and brought along an improved work ethic. Expectations were soaring and he seemed finally ready to meet them. However, his campaign was brief and disappointing as he only managed a .246 average before a torn ACL ended his season.

With the emergence of Hart at first base, I have been clamoring for the Brewers to trade always-has-tobacco-in-his-mouth Gamel. I believe the Brewers could receive a seasoned reliever in exchange for him. Gamel still has major upside and I bet there are a lot of teams willing to take the risk. Now, it looks like the Brewers did the right thing by hanging on to him.

But this should be Gamel’s LAST chance to prove himself. No more waiting around and hoping he finds his polarizing swing. I don’t care what his Triple-A statistics were. I don’t care that he hit 28 home runs in 2011. If his stats don’t transfer to the majors, they are meaningless. Take Brooks Conrad for example. He absolutely dominated in Triple-A last year but couldn’t buy a hit when he was called up. If Gamel doesn’t produce while Hart is rehabbing his knee, I don’t see a scenario where the Brewers keep him on the team…especially when they have Hunter Morris waiting in the wings.

However, if Gamel shows his full potential, the Brewers will have a tough decision to make. Should they hang on to him or trade him?

If they decide to keep him, moving him to the outfield or back to third base may be the best option. There will be no place for him at first base with either Hart or Morris holding it down. By trading him, they might just get back a solid veteran starter who they failed to sign in the offseason. If I were calling the shots, I would go with the latter.

The one thing Gamel has going for him is that he is a left-handed power hitter. Granted, his power has been nowhere to be found, but nonetheless, it’s there…somewhere. But the key is that he’s a lefty. The Brewers have been without a boisterous and dynamic left-handed bat since Fielder left. At the very least, Gamel will provide some consistency. He will join Norichika Aoki as Milwaukee’s only left-handed hitters in the starting lineup.

The Brewers were already going to be in an uphill climb to win the N.L. Central and with Gamel manning first, that hill just became steeper. Hart has a signifcantly better bat and impressed everyone with his finesse fielding skills last year. Gamel is clearly on a lower level, but his potential alone makes him someone to watch closely.

I’ll be full-heartedly but carefully rooting for Gamel. No one would be happier to see him succeed than me. Here’s to hoping Gamel takes full advantage of yet another opportunity.

The dude hits walk-off homers…he is pretty important. Photo: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

This is still very new…news, but it sounds like you can scratch one more Brewer from Spring Training, along with the 14 others off to play in the World Baseball Classic.

The Associated Press is reporting that Brewers 1st baseman, Corey Hart,will undergo arthroscopic knee surgery next week.  It is confirmed that the right knee is the problem and his surgery will be performed by Dr. William Raasch.  Corey is expected to be out anywhere from 3-4 months.

Dr. Raasch is the head team Physician and should be trusted.  Baseball Prospectus has acknowledged him repeatedly as one of the top surgeons in the game today. 

We will have more for you as it comes forward.  My only real question is, why is this happening now?  Was there no way of knowing about this in October?  Why on earth did we wait until almost the end of January to have this surgery?  This is really the first time all season that I can say with certainty that the Brewers have made a huge mistake. 

Now you HAVE to keep Gamel, so someone can play 1st base.  You can kiss using him as a trade piece goodbye.  This news makes me want to smash my head into a brick wall until I can’t taste salt anymore.  Unbelievable.

Corey, this is not your fault.  Get well soon pal.  We need you!!

Who we should trade is someone we here at Reviewing the Brew have been discussing throughout the season. That person is none other than Corey Hart.  (more…)

Some people like his bat, some people like his versatility, and a lot of people like the fact that he’s willing to do what he can for the team. This can make dealing with the business side of baseball hard.

In the case of many professional ballplayers, fans young and old look up to them for their work ethic and ability to sacrifice themselves for the betterment of the team. This isn’t necessarily a fallacy, but it is overstating the point. The real fact of the matter is that these people want to stay employed. The way to keep a job is to keep doing it right, or at least make your self bow to the will of your corporate overlords in hopes of earning their good graces.

Does this mean that Corey Hart’s good-faith offer as posted by Adam McCalvy this week is just a simple ruse to keep a job? Does this mean that Corey Hart is not a good guy? Of course not. It just means that he’s really smart about toeing the company line.

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Corey Hart has been one of the top contributors at home. (Image: Benny Sieu-US PRESSWIRE)

all of baseball with a .704 winning percentage. Eventually, that home success carried over into the postseason, where the Brewers won all three divisional series games en route to a series victory.

While the season may end at 162 games for the Brewers this season, there is no question that Miller Park is where they are most comfortable–think legs up and reclining in a brand new leather sofa type of comfortable.

Through 61 home games, Milwaukee has posted a 35-26 record, good for seventh in the National League. Normally, being the seventh-best home team out of 16 wouldn’t be worthy of merit, but for a 54-64 overall team 17.5 games back in the division, that record is one of the season’s bright spots.

Each of the last eight games at Miller Park have gone the way of the Brewers, including a three-game sweep of the first-place Reds. They’ve only lost one out of their last 12 home series after taking the first two games in a four-game set against Philadelphia. There’s just something about the crowd, running sausage costumes, and rolling out of barrels that brings out the team that we expected to see before the season began.

But then there are the road woes.

At 19-38, the Brewers have the third-worst road record in the MLB. For some inexplicable reason, everything that clicks in unison at home falls apart at the hinges on the road; for example, the offense OPS’s .808 at home compared to their .678 mark as the away team (by comparison, Cody Ransom has a .701 OPS).

Ron Roenicke has to lose sleep at night over the fact that his team can sweep the division leader in front of their home fans, then go on the road and drop five of six to the two teams with the worst records in baseball, then return home and play like, dare I say, a Playoff team again.

Even Bernie's a .300 hitter at his home park this year. (Image: Jeff Hanisch-US PRESSWIRE)

The Brewers were by no means road warriors last season, either. Instead of flat-out playing befuddled on the road as they have this year, they managed a 39-42 (.481) record away from Miller Park. For the sake of hypothesizing, let’s say the Brewers were able to play .460 ball away from home (I mean, if the Royals can do it…), they would have seven to eight more wins. That’s a 61-57 record. Currently, they’d only be four games back of Pittsburgh for the second Wild Card spot. Hypothesizing done.

Corey Hart hits 68 points higher at home than away and 18 of his 23 long balls have come at home, as well. Braun has hit 19 of his league-leading 32 homers and owns an OPS of over 1.023 in Milwaukee. Aramis Ramirez is batting .318 with a .392 OBP,  ten homers, and 43 RBI. Martin Maldonado is hitting .326 with a .944 OPS. Heck, even Bernie Brewer is batting .300 at Miller Park.

Regardless of the road woes, this has been a (for the most part) fun team to watch at home (minus all those blown leads). When they’re at the friendly confines of Miller Park, they win (knock on wood), so head out and check their misleading 54-64 record out in person!

Then Corey Hart got real comfortable in the position. So comfortable, in fact, that nobody has any plans to move him any time soon.

So what does this mean for one Mr. Mat Gamel – the man who was supposed to take over that position?

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