The smile of a true leader. (Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)

2010 was also the season that Hernandez won the American League Cy Young Award.

With 13 wins.

The case of King Felix provides a proper transition into digressing upon the subjectivity and, to put in bluntly, the uselessness of wins as a stat for pitchers.

Within the confines of the 2013 Milwaukee Brewers, Kyle Lohse examples this notion to its full extent. Lohse has been the Brewers’ top starting pitcher, posting a 3.53 earned run average and 3.77 FIP, both tops among Milwaukee starters.

Yet, the first stat shown following the score in the game recap, one of the pitching triple crown categories, and the number by which the careers of most pitchers are assessed shows that Lohse really hasn’t been worthy of much praise.

Kyle Lohse has one win.

Through seven weeks, does this void the value of signing Kyle Lohse? I mean, he won 16 games last season and has one this year, right? Start the mob! Incite the riot! Send Kyle Lohse back to St. Louis where he’ll throw complete game shutouts!

Or come to grips that using wins as a primary way to assess a pitcher’s value makes less sense than asking Bob Uecker to run a marathon.

Wins are not only dependent on how well/poor the starting pitcher pitches on any given day, but also subject to the opposing starter’s performance, the offensive production, any defensive miscues behind the starter, pitch count, managerial decisions, and the bullpen performances of both teams.

For Lohse in 2013, seemingly all of these have gone the wrong way for Lohse.

Lohse holds a 1-4 record, but his ERA would indicate anything but that (Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports)

On April 12 at Busch Stadium, he surrendered only six baserunners and two runs in seven innings, yet the Cardinals limited Milwaukee to two hits and no runs over nine innings as Lohse took his first loss as a starter. At the time, it was arguably the top start for any Brewers starter to that point…yet Lohse lost.

Furthermore, Lohse has posted career-high LOB% and BB/9 through seven starts (entering Tuesday night’s start in Pittsburgh) in addition to his highest K/9 rate since 2006. These, along with a FIP that ranks among the top 50 in Major League Baseball, are far more effective in assessing Lohse’s value.

Rather simply, Lohse has just been unlucky this season–arguably the unluckiest pitcher in all of baseball. Repeatedly he has been “squeezed” by home plate umpires, seemingly more so than other starters(on May 3, what should have been an inning-ended strike three according to Pitch F/X and Lohse himself was called a ball, and Matt Holliday took advantage of the new life by blasting a two-run homer off the scoreboard).

In his four losses, Lohse has been the recipient of three runs of support. Outside of a seven-run outburst against San Diego, the offense has provided Lohse with seven runs in six starts.

Good news for Lohse and the Brewers is that, over the course of 162 games, this pattern won’t stay the same. He won’t face Shelby Miller or Adam Wainwright or Clayton Kershaw every fifth day. There’s a Barry Zito or Edwin Jackson in there somewhere. The offense won’t average 2.0 runs per game for him all season. The #LohseLeadership is just too strong.

Once the wins begin to balance out the losses, though, it still won’t even serve as the determining factor for Lohse and for pitchers in general. While it’s nice to register as the winning pitcher, the game of baseball is just so crazy, so unpredictable that they serve far down on the register of ways to evaluate a pitcher.

Just ask Felix Hernandez and his mantelpiece.

Remember Yuniesky, the goal is to pick up the ball…not just stop it. Photo: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

Since I began writing for RtB back in the winter of 2010, I have always had a punching bag.  By “punching bag” I mean, an aging/overrated/overpaid  default player that I can blame all of the teams woes on.  Usually it is someone who is past their prime, lacks the tools to be an everyday player, or is insanely overpaid.  Lucky for me, I have had one of those every year thus far.  That is, until this season…

Going into the 2013 season, I had some concerns about who would be the focus of my blind rage and malcontent.  Part of me thought Rickie Weeks might be worthy of carrying the mantle.  Meanwhile, other parts of my beer-saturated cranium thought that the signing of guys like Bobby Crosby and Kelvim Escobar would serve nicely.  Unluckily for me, Weeks looks to be back in form and both Crosby and Escobar are selling cars at a Dodge dealership in Phoenix (I assume). 

On Monday I felt like my prayers had been answered.  The Brewers went out and lit $33 million dollars on fire by signing the next best thing to Jeff Suppan, Kyle Lohse.  Now granted, I do believe Lohse has more talent than Suppan..but based on age and dollars, it is a wash.  This was certainly a step in the right direction, but this signing did not quite fill that void in my hate riddled soul.  All this signing did was make me see the disconnect between my two favorite uncle’s, Mark (Attanasio) and Doug (Melvin).  This signing did not make Kyle Lohse my punching bag, it made the organization my temporary boxing…sack.  You know the one I am talking about right?  The one that guys can wail on with one hand and it keeps bouncing back over and over again.  The Brewers had made themselves my punching sack…I still needed a punching bag.

Without even so much as a day for me to soak in all the money they just dumped into Lake Michigan, I got a text from old pal and staff writer Colin Bennett.  The text read thusly:

Everything is on hold.  We are giving Yuniesky Betancourt a MAJOR LEAGUE DEAL

The first sentence of that text was in regards to a joint article we were/are working on.  The second sentence was a gift…and a curse.

All Spring Training I had longed for a player who could pinch hit with one out and the bases loaded, to deliver that double play.  At night I would lay awake and dream about 1 pitch at-bats, ending in a double-play or a pop up to the 3rd baseman.   As I watched our talented young position players move base runners with sacrifice bunts and fly balls, I ached for 3 straight swing-and-misses on balls in the dirt.  Now…I had all of those things in one horrible, depressing package. 

Yuniesky Betancourt was a player that was so unwanted, that the Royals refused to trade us Zack Greinke unless he was part of the deal.  How bad do you have to be for a team to force a “throw-away” player on you?

Here are some of my favorite highlights from Yuni’s storied career:

2008/09 – His last season with the Mariners he was statistically the worst defensive starting shortstop in baseball, paired with him walking in 3% of his over 500 plate appearances…also the worst in baseball for a starter.  He was then traded to the Royals.

2009/10 - The Royals gave up two minor league nothings to acquire Betancourt, who thanked them by having a .274 on-base percentage…again, the worst in baseball for a starting position player.

2010/11 – Then the Brewers were forced to take him as part of the Greinke deal.  As a Brewer he led the majors in fewest pitches seen per plate appearance, 3.16.  You guessed it, worst in major league baseball.  He also retained his crown of having the worst on-base percentage of any starting position player. 

Don’t get me wrong, Betancourt had some moments as a Brewer that were good and possibly great.  During our playoff run to the NLCS that year, he was off the charts good.  Almost good enough to make me forget about all the times he was the worst player in baseball. 

All of a sudden, Kyle Lohse looks like a 14 karat gold plated pooper scooper doesn’t he? 

It will be oh so nice to rip Betancourt apart every time he steps on the field.  The real difficulty will be trying to keep it fresh.  Coming up with new material about a guy I have insulted hundreds of times before will be a challenge that I embrace.  

I have been writing about the Crew for so long now that sometimes it seems like they are inside my head.  How could they have possibly known that I secretly yearned for one of the worst baseball players of the last half-century?  

The only logical explanation, is that someone in the Brewers front office loves my work on all of the over-payed, 40 year old garbage they keep throwing on the field. 

My Dad always says, “A turd in a tuxedo, is still a turd”. 

Welcome back to Milwaukee you classy, sophisticated turd!!!

Oct 11, 2012; Washington, DC, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Lohse (26) throws during the sixth inning of game four of the 2012 NLDS against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Okay. The Brewers have a flair for the dramatic. We all get that, and we all saw it coming from a mile away. It had to happen eventually

Doug Melvin, Mark Attanasio, and the rest of the Brewers organization were so quiet this offseason… with the exception of revamping the bullpen by bringing in sturdy pieces like Tom Gorzelanny, Michael Gonzalez, Burke Badenhop, and Michael Olmsted, the Brewers did virtually nothing this offseason.

This, after the club two years prior sold the farm in acquiring two starting pitchers—Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum—to immediately contend for a World Series run. Then, the following year, after offering a $100 million contract to Prince Fielder and ultimately losing him to a deal that was both twice the length and double the monetary value, went after veteran (and rival) third baseman Aramis Ramirez to help replace some of Fielder’s prolific offense.

Let’s stop here for a minute. I can’t cite any articles, and I neither feel like, nor do I think it’s possible for me to go back to the twitter reactions from Brewers fans when they signed Ramirez. What I can tell you is that it was not universally positive. I was watching very closely (hoping they’d move on either Jose Reyes or Ramirez), and I remember the reactions very well. The detractors (of which there were quite a few) were contending that Ramirez was too old, not a good enough defender, and overpriced.

Ramirez was 33 years old last season, so he is on a bit of an age tilt. But he still managed to surpass even the optimists of the signing, including myself. I saw Ramirez posting an honest .275 BA with around 15-20 homers and 75-85 RBI. Worth the money, but only just. Instead, Ramirez put the hammer down on everyone and slammed 27 homers, 105 RBI, and he put up a slashline of .300/.360/.540, numbers that pushed him into ninth in MVP voting, which would have undoubtedly been higher if the Brewers were a playoff-bound team. Along with Braun’s improved power numbers, the two (along with Corey Hart) made for one of the most threatening 3-4-5 punches in all of baseball. That isn’t even bringing up his defense, which was stellar… so stellar, in fact, that Ramirez was a top-five finalist for a Gold Glove at third base (and in my humble opinion, should have won it).

What have we to learn here? Brewers fans are passionate… as passionate as any in baseball, and they react like crazy when this team makes signings perceived as risky. They want this team to be good both in the present and in the future, and the additions of Kyle Lohse and now Yuniesky Betancourt have jarred the fanbase, and have kept the streak of flashy offseason moves by the Brewers alive.

First, Lohse. Let me get this out of the way… if I see one more Jeff Suppan comparison, I’ll burst. Honestly. Lohse is NOT Jeff Suppan 2.0. Suppan didn’t have any of the tools that Lohse has, Suppan was always mediocre-to-bad, whereas Lohse has had an average career until his explosion onto the scene the last two years with the St. Louis Cardinals.

I can argue all day about why Lohse is better than Suppan, but any self-respecting fan can look at the situation and see that it’s simply the truth. Suppan threw an 85 MPH fastball and didn’t hit his spots. He sucked with the Brewers, he sucked before, and he still sucks now. Plain and simple.

Lohse works primarily with his 2-seam fastball that sits around 90-91 MPH, a hard dipping change-up in the low-80s, a very tight slider in the mid-80s that almost looks like a slider/cutter hybrid, and a curve in the low-70s. He mixes his pitches well, he hits his spots, and he gets a lot of ground ball outs, a valuable tool in fly ball-friendly Miller Park. He won’t have a K/9 above 7.0, but he’ll get a decent amount of strikeouts on location and familiarity of the division alone.

Lohse was undeniably good last year. His 16-3 record (.842 W-L%) led the league, he pitched to a 2.86 ERA in 211 innings, to go along with 143 strikeouts and a remarkable WHIP of 1.090. He had another good year the season prior, going  14-8 with a 3.39 ERA in 188.1 IP with 111 Ks. Two great seasons. And the big thing about Lohse is the fact that all of the stats are going the right direction… in 2010, he had a BB/9 of 3.4, in 2011 it dipped to 2.0, and in 2012 it was a microscopic 1.6. His K/9 has gone from 5.3 in both 2010 and 2011 to 6.1 in 2012, and he boasted a career high in K/BB with a 3.76, a very good, top of the rotation number.

All of this because he switched from a 4-seam fastball, with which he had less control, to a 2-seam fastball (starting in 2011), which has been the catalyst for his success.

Point is, don’t write Lohse off. It’s foolish to condemn him before he even wears Brewers blue. He’s a great No. 2 behind Yovani Gallardo, and while it’s hard to see him having an ERA below 3.00 again this season, it’s not hard to imagine a solid ERA in the low-to-mid 3s. All of that for the 10th best free agent available to start the winter, and well below the five year, $75 million dollar contract agent Scott Boras was reportedly seeking.

Oct 5, 2011; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Milwaukee Brewers infielder Yuniesky Betancourt celebrates in the second inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks during game four of the 2011 NLDS at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Now, a few words on the much maligned Yuniesky Betancourt, whose signing came the day after Lohse’s. Betancourt, of course, was the primary shortstop in the 2011 NL Central champion Brewers squad, and while he didn’t shock the world with his offensive production (.252/.271/.381, 13 homers, 68 RBI), he didn’t completely offend anyone. His defense wasn’t as glaringly bad as advertised either, even initiating one of the defensive plays of the year for the Brewers on May 9th, 2011.

So far, if his contract information has been released, I haven’t been able to find it (aside from it being a one year, major league deal), but if the Brewers were able to snag Alex Gonzalez, their other main utility infielder, for $1.5 million, my guess is that Yuni B. came dirt cheap—probably around $1 million with a few incentives.

His defense isn’t great. In fact, it’s pretty subpar. He sort of makes up for it on offense, but even his bat is frustratingly streaky. He boots his fair share of routine plays on defense, and he practically never draws walks at the plate. But he has some pop in his bat, he has the ability to make astounding defensive plays, and can play every infield position, though to varying results ranging from average to… not so average.

The vitriol surrounding the return of Yuni to the Brewers is probably mostly in a comical context, as he has earned a reputation of being a player that fans love to hate, but the move itself was practical. With Taylor Green and Jeff Bianchi headed for the DL, Donnie Murphy seeing the door, Corey Hart out until at least early-May, and Mat Gamel out for the entire season, the move was not only smart and cheap, it was necessary. The Brewers could have taken a chance on someone else, but they’re familiar with Yuni, and by all accounts, he’s a good guy to be around in the clubhouse, so why not?

The biggest drawback of the past two days is that the Brewers surrendered the 17th overall pick in the first year player’s draft by signing Lohse, which was a major reason Lohse was without a home until just this week, and a big reason many fans aren’t happy about his arrival. Losing that pick sucks, but the Brewers farm system isn’t as bad as most believe, and I think they can take that hit. Having a solid No. 2 behind Yo and in front of an extremely talented No. 3 in Marco Estrada makes the Brewers a much better team.

To say they’re World Series contenders is a pretty big stretch. To say they’re a better team in a much better position to make a run at a playoff spot? That’s not quite so outlandish, and it’s because of these moves.

Take a chill pill, Brewers fans… opening day is 5 days away! It’s going to be a fun season, and I fully expect the smart additions to rebuild the bullpen, add Lohse to the rotation, and bring back Betancourt for infield depth will prove to be a series of moves that will silence the Melvin critics for at least a few months.

If I’m wrong, I’ll eat crow. But I think we’re all hoping I’m right.

Like it or not, those are the facts. The response and reactions by Brewers fans have been decidedly polarized, many arguing that Lohse is just going to be another Jeff Suppan, while many others believing that his success with the St. Louis Cardinals will translate to Milwaukee. After all, Lohse doesn’t have to start against the Brewers anymore—a team he owns a career 4.44 ERA against.

This article isn’t really about what I believe regarding Lohse, what I think about the reactions, or anything like that… though my opinions will be present in my evaluation of him. It’s just that I’ve been sitting here racking my brain trying to figure out how this is going to impact the starting rotation. Who’s in, who’s out? How will those chosen to carry the starting torch perform? And what will the outsiders looking in be left to do?

To start, we’re going to go with the three certainties of this rotation. Barring injury, these first three pitchers make a formidable punch in the National League (which is somewhat hinting at my opinion on Lohse).

1 – Yovani Gallardo 

The ace of the rotation, even though the man just signed gave up 0.8 less runs per nine innings than Gallardo last season. That’s not a knock on Gallardo—he’s the best pitcher in this rotation until someone definitively shows otherwise. His ERA is consistently bloated by a few really, really bad starts every year. For roughly 27 games, you can expect Gallardo to go on the mound and be one of the best pitchers in baseball. For the other five, you have to watch his 93 MPH fastball get clobbered out of the ballpark over and over again. His stat-line last season was pretty decent—16-9, 3.66 ERA, 204 IP, 204 K, 1.304 WHIP—but it’s only a glimpse of what he’s capable of.

Gallardo always puts together numbers similar to those… a K/9 of around 9.0, an ERA in the mid-3′s, and pretty good numbers everywhere that just don’t shout “ace”. To see the ace in Yovani, you have to go deeper than the numbers and realize that he’s better than his statistics indicate. He’s a dominating presence on the mound almost every time he steps out, he’s capable of going the full nine (even though skipper Ron Roenicke won’t allow it), and he will give you 200 good innings a season. He has the stuff of an ace, with a fastball sitting around 92-94, a new cutter around 90s, a slider/cutter hybrid in the mid-80s, and a huge power curve in the low 80s.

He will continue to be the ace for the foreseeable future… hopefully a contract extension is in the works.

2 – Kyle Lohse

The man that started the article, the man that is lighting up Milwaukee fans around the country, and the man that everyone is glad to see find a home, if for no other reason than to end the news cycle. Lohse’s free agency expedition is well documented and commented on, and may very well be the catalyst in reforming some of the draft-pick compensation rules that came with the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. A client of Scott Boras (AKA: He Who Must Not Be Named, You Know Who, LORD VOLDEMORT), Lohse naturally came out of the season and into the winter aiming for the stars, seeking a deal for as long as five years at $15 million a year. Yeah right. If the Brewers had jumped on that grenade, maybe then I’d be a little perturbed.

Behind Gallardo, Lohse is going to carve a nice home in the Keg. The many doubters out there will point to his mediocre-to-bad seasons, primarily when he was in the American League, but it’s a lot easier for me to look at the very recent success he’s had in a division he’s very familiar with. The Suppan comparisons are, quite frankly, outrageous. Lohse has some very good pitches, and since he’s developed his low-90s two-seam fastball, he’s been one of the best pitchers in the NL Central, leading the league in win percentage last season (16-3), and as I mentioned besting Gallardo by a significant margin in ERA with a sparkling 2.86 ERA in 2012, and another great ERA of 3.39 the year before. Suppan had a fastball that sat at 87 MPH, and didn’t have much else. He was a bum and a bad signing, period. Lohse is not the same pitcher.

He’s a ground ball pitcher, not relying much on the strikeout. That’s okay though, because Aramis Ramirez played Gold Glove defense at third, Jean Segura is a young and very talented shortstop, Rickie Weeks will commit his fair share of errors, but is an altogether solid defender at second, and once Hart is back in action, he’ll be fine at 1st.

Lohse probably won’t replicate his sub-3 ERA with Milwaukee this season. I’m expecting him to give them around 200 innings of mid-3 ERA work. My official prediction: 209 IP, 3.48 ERA, 135K, 1.110 WHIP. Good enough to be a strong No. 2 behind Yo.

3: Marco Estrada

Entering Spring Training, long before the addition of Lohse, Estrada was pegged as the No. 2 starter behind Gallardo. I don’t think he’s going to have his feelings hurt being knocked down one peg to number three, especially when it’s an established veteran like Lohse taking his No. 2 spot.

I’m a huge Marco Estrada fan, and I’m not going to pretend otherwise. The fact that the Brewers obtained him for pretty much nothing and have turned him into an absolutely fantastic pitcher is a beautiful thing to me. He had a remarkable season last year, with a sparkling stat-line (5-7, 3.64 ERA, 138.1 IP, 143 K, 1.142 WHIP, and a ridiculous K/BB of 4.93), and a solid pitching repertoire that has continued to blossom. He hits his spots with his low-to-mid 90s fastball, and he misses a ton of bats with his strong cruve, and his bread and butter, a fading change-up in the low 80s.  Estrada can strikeout batters in droves, and in most starts, he looks like Yovani Gallardo 2.0 (with an even better ERA and K/BB!)

This will be his first season entering opening day as a starter instead of a long reliever. Given this immediate boost, and barring an injury, Estrada will be another pitcher who gives the Brewers 200 innings and he will deliver a K/9 around 9.0, similar to that of Gallardo. The thing is, I think Estrada isn’t just going to be as good as last year—I think he’s going to be better. If his strong spring training is any indication (1.88 ERA, 14.2 IP, 12 K, 9.5 OppQual), Estrada is going to emerge as a household name in 2013, and could very well outshine the two high-profile names above him. Don’t be surprised if Estrada posts an ERA in the low-3′s. His method of pounding the strike zone while still getting hitters to miss the ball is an ability no other Brewers pitcher has. It could be special.

4. Chris Narveson

Okay, here’s where things start to get tricky. Narveson has performed fairly well this spring, and appears to have come back from a season ending torn rotator cuff that limited him to two (bad) starts last season. He’s a lefty with a lot of major league experience, and he knows how to pitch in the majors. I’m not wild about Narveson, and in most other rotations, I believe he’d be the No. 5 starter at best, but we’ll get there in a minute.

Realistically, Roenicke and pitching coach Rick Kranitz are going to keep Narveson on a very, very short least, especially to start the season. Five inning outings, and any sign of trouble will result in Narveson being pulled and evaluated. Narveson doesn’t have any pitches that blow you away, and his fastball only touches 90 once every blue moon, but he mixes his pitches well, and even with his lack of knockout pitches, he still does a good job of striking batters out, owning a career K/9 of 7.4 (compared to Lohse’s 5.6). The fact that he’s done well this spring and is a left handed pitcher gives him the upper-edge over the other guys vying for the last two spots in the rotation. You can expect a so-so year from Narveson as long as he stays healthy. Around 160 or so innings, an ERA in the mid-4′s… you know the drill with Narveson. Nothing that will astonish you (except on the occasional night when he looks like an ace), but nothing that will repulse you.

5. Wily Peralta AND Mike Fiers

Okay, okay. I know. One spot, two pitchers. But think about it… does platooning the fifth spot not make at least a little sense? Mike Fiers clearly showed us last year that he is more than capable of pitching in the majors, and was, at one point, the most un-hittable man on the mound in the country. Peralta is a young fireballer who saw success in his limited time as a Brewer last season. Both are ready to start in the majors (even if their spring training numbers haven’t been great), and both are good enough to earn this fifth spot. After the top three, the Brewers are going to be doing a lot of mixing and matching, so why not start the season out with a six-man rotation, having Fiers and Peralta start once every 10 days each, with some bullpen time inbetween to keep their arms active? It’s an experiment worth trying when you’re looking at two candidates both deserving of the job.

If the powers that be in Milwaukee decide it has to be one or the other (which they probably will), I’d have to say they’re going to give Peralta the job, but have Fiers on speed dial ready to make a run like he did last year in place of an ineffective or an injured pitcher. Giving the nod to Peralta is because of his upper-90s fastball and devastating slider… two pitches that are just too good to pass up, and even though his spring numbers aren’t much to look at, I think he’s going to be just fine if he’s given the opportunity.

The rest of it. 

Mark Rogers is out of minor league options and to say that he has underperformed this Spring is an understatement. He’s suffering from a case of “dead arm” right now, lowering his velocity and greatly limiting his control. He’s confident this will blow over and he’ll be ready to contribute to the team. But when… well, if this happens, what role will Rogers serve? Tom Gorzelanny is the long reliever, and Melvin already made plenty of upgrades in what was the the worst bullpen in the majors from last year.

Rogers is going to start the season as a middle relief pitcher, probably getting a few long relief appearances if Gorzelanny is seeing too much action in too short of a time. There’s no way the Brewers risk placing him on waivers to go to the minors, because any number of teams would scoop him up in a heartbeat, and there goes a fifth overall draft pick with seemingly unlimited, but still unrealized potential. If this dead arm phase passes, and Rogers starts to perform, what happens to the rotation? What about Tyler Thornburg and Johnny Hellweg, both sent to AAA Nashville, but both nearly ready to make it in the bigs?

A lot of people are saying this rotation lacks depth, but I’d argue that they’re suffering from a bit too much, though that’s not really a bad problem, given the fact that any number of these pitchers could be injured at any point (knock on wood).

I love the addition of Lohse. Without him, the rotation is too young and too volatile. I think he’s going to perform well in Milwaukee, and I think the comparisons to Jeff Suppan are pretty outlandish.

If nothing else, with the addition of Lohse, the Brewers’ top three starters combine to make a formidable punch, and the bottom of the rotation (along with the outsiders looking in) contain massive upside. This is not a rotation to be overlooked.

Instead, the team was adamantly centered on relying upon a steady core of young, relatively inexperienced arms for the upcoming

“BUT KYLE LOHSE BRINGS SO MUCH POSTSEASON EXPERIENCE”

season.

Or, at least, general manager Doug Melvin and skipper Ron Roenicke were adamantly centered on the youth movement. That’s why, when it was announced that the Brewers came to terms with Lohse on a three year, $33 million deal, heads were scratched and the puzzle pieces didn’t add up.

In this Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel article from February, Tom Haudricourt reported that Melvin had not had any conversations with the 34-year-old right hander’s agent, Scott Boras. The outlook on the way the organization was to go about this season and beyond in terms of pitching hadn’t changed since that article was published, judging by the comments of Melvin and Roenicke. Milwaukee even did so much as to come out publicly with its starting rotation.

Once again, no mentions of Lohse.

It seemed to be the only ones pushing the move were a select few relentless members of the national media and, apparently, team owner Mark Attanasio.

Doug Melvin likes mustaches, Canadian bacon, and holiday parties. (Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports)

If Brewers management wasn’t in favor of the move, repeatedly turning down rumors about a pending signing of Lohse, yet, a week before the season opens, the team goes off and inks him to a multi-year deal, there has to be pressure coming from ownership to get it done.

There have been no official reports of it, but the Lohse move had to be a move pushed for by Attanasio, which shows an evident discrepancy in the ideas and outlooks of the two sides.

The GM and the owner were clearly not on the same page.

At Brewers On Deck, Attanasio asserted that he would be willing to give up the team’s first round draft pick in order to bring in Lohse if the money was right–though, at the time, Boras was still looking for upwards of $13 million/year for his client. Melvin, on the other hand, felt the draft pick was important with the path the organization was going down.

That path followed the route of Wily Peralta Way, Mike Fiers Manor, Tyler Thornburg Trail, and Hiram Burgos Boulevard. If the Brewers were to make a run to the postseason this season or next or, heck, even the season after that, the–supposed–plan was to make it there on the arms of these pitchers.

Now, with Lohse being the highest-paid player on the roster, ownership is teetering down the “all-in” path of two offseasons ago when Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum, and Francisco Rodriguez were all brought aboard.

All the signs point toward this not being a move that Attanasio, not Melvin, pushed for. The disparity between the visions of the club is evident. Lohse, in all fairness, is an effective middle-rotation starter, but, just a day ago, the team was headed in a different direction.

We didn’t believe the Brewers were going to sign Kyle Lohse. But they did.

Is Lohse really going to pitch as spectacularly as he has previously or will he give Milwaukee fans another reason to loathe the St. Louis Cardinals? (more…)

Brewers fans are not happy with the signing of Kyle Lohse. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Lohse is 34-years-old and is coming off a career year in which he posted 16-3 record and a 2.86 ERA. One of the top free agent pitchers this offseason, the Brewers scooped him up with just over one week before Opening Day. So why are Milwaukee fans so peeved?

Here are some tweets from fellow fans:

That is not the news I wanted to wake up to. I hate everything.

— Jerry Eldred (@jheldred) March 25, 2013

Might as well have signed Ryan Dempster to a bloated three-year deal earlier this winter and not lost the draft pick. #Brewers

— J.P. Breen (@JP_Breen) March 25, 2013

Mark Attanasio thinks that Al Davis, Jerry Jones and Steinbrenner were too “hands off” with their teams. #brewers #lohse

— Ryan Topp (@RyanTopp) March 25, 2013

This is completely out of line. 3/$30. I can’t even fathom the depths of stupidity to reach the conclusion that this is reasonable.

— Nate Petrashek (@NPetrashek) March 25, 2013

It’s like they said “Hey, we’re out from under that Randy Wolf contract. Let’s give it to a guy who’s just as old as ‘Wolfie’ right now!”

— Jaymes Langrehr (@JaymesL) March 25, 2013

The #Brewers signing Kyle Lohse in the 11th hour reminds me a lot of Braden Looper in 2009…and that went well

— Wes Hodkiewicz (@WesHod) March 25, 2013

Obviously, many fans think this signing is a travesty. Lohse is too old and too much of a mediocre pitcher to be worth that kind of money. However, there is a small number of people that agree with this bold move by Mark Attanasio and Co.

Unlike a lot of people I see on twitter, I actually like this Lohse signing. #Brewers

— Kyle Komplin (@KKomplin) March 25, 2013

Kyle Lohse has signed with the #Brewers . Lohse is a nice addition, 16 wins last year with Cards. 3 yr deal worth 33 Million

— Brendan (@BrendanRayder) March 25, 2013

With Lohse cemented as the No. 2 starter, who becomes the odd man out? Will they send Wily Peralta back to the minors or will they move Mike Fiers to the bullpen? Whatever they decide to do, Brewers fans are sitting stunned.

Personally, I am undoubtedly against this signing. This season was a perfect time for the Brewers to watch their young pitching develop, but now, either Fiers or Peralta will be removed from the rotation, delaying a chance to prove they belong. The Brewers also have part with their 17th overall pick in the upcoming draft. Losing a first-round draft pick for a guy in his mid-thirties is absurd.

Because the Brewers let Shaun Marcum leave via free agency, the New York Mets snatched him and signed him to a one-year deal worth $4 million. Marcum and Lohse are the same caliber of pitcher, yet the Brewers are giving Lohse $11 million a season. They screwed the pooch on this one.

What do you think of the Brewers signing Kyle Lohse?

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Reports have been confirmed that the Milwaukee Brewers have inked a deal with veteran pitcher Kyle Lohse, after months of churning rumors that seemed all but dead.

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Milwaukee’s name has been linked with Lohse for awhile now, so do they remain to be the only suitor left? (more…)

One of the best starters in baseball last year statistically.

Spearheaded a rotation that has made deep playoff runs two years in a row, including a World Series championship.

Two consecutive seasons of statistical mastery, and a fairly expansive repertoire with ever improving control.

2012 statline: 16-3 (league leading .842 W-L%), 2.86 ERA, 211 IP, 143 K, 1.090 WHIP, 3.76 K/BB

All of these things lead one to believe that every major league team would be drooling at getting that pitcher off the market for a price that is dropping every day now that spring training has began. Those are ace-like numbers, and still, the owner of that statline, Kyle Lohse, remains unsigned at the time of writing this article (2/19/13).

Why? Well, there are a couple of reasons, but I’ll discuss the two big ones. First, and probably foremost is the fact that he is represented by Scott Boras, the uber-agent who forces teams to sell their souls and their firstborn chil… I mean, spend a lot of money and commit to a lot of years on contracts for the players he represents.

I won’t beat around the bush. I hate Scott Boras. I think what he’s doing to baseball is damaging the sport on the same level as steroid-usage and the fallout it created in the 90′s and early 2000′s. Boras oversells his clients, teams are forced to sell the farm and their left legs to get a decent player, and then they’re stuck for a decade and 200 million dollars with a player who will, inevitably, stop producing at a level worthy of such high pay.

Why do I hate this? It kills smaller clubs. Teams like… well… the Milwaukee Brewers can’t compete with that level of spending, and many teams lose their best players to mega-teams like the New York Yankees, the Los Angeles Angels, the Boston Red Sox, and a few choice others.

Let’s just say baseball needs a salary cap, and you can blame Scott Boras for that.

But, in Kyle Lohse’s case, it doesn’t seem that Boras is really doing a great job of selling his client. Naturally, Boras asked for an outrageous amount of money and a long-term deal for Lohse, who is already 34 and has had only two good seasons in the majors, a couple of average-to-mediocre seasons, and a bunch of bad ones.

So, count Boras and his overzealous method of selling clients as a negative for Lohse. Also, count draft pick compensation against Lohse. Signing him means giving up the team’s first round draft pick… in Milwaukee’s case, that would be the 17th overall pick, and a mid-first round pick is nothing to shake off. There is some legitimate talent coming into this draft, and the Brewers (as well as every other team in the majors, obviously) are turned off by the fact that they have to give up that first round pick for a pitcher that may or may not be worth it.

Lohse has seen a decrease in his velocity all across his repertoire. His fastball has dropped a few clicks, and now sits around 90 MPH. Not too bad, considering he has gained control with the decrease in velocity, but the question has to be asked: Is his arm getting tired, or did he just sacrifice velocity for control?

If you look at sabermetrics, you won’t be able to sort much out either. All indications are that he had two great seasons, and that they weren’t flukes. In fact, his career FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching—think of it as a more comprehensive version of ERA) is a few clicks lower than his traditional ERA… his ERA standing at a career 4.45, while his FIP is at 4.34, indicating that, on the whole over his career, he is slightly better than what surface statistics tell us.

Sure, he’s not a strikeout pitcher. A measly career K/9 of 5.6 is not a lot to look at. But he does a great job of getting ground ball outs, last season getting 40.5 percent of batters to ground out. The rest of the rotation is more than capable of having K/9s of over 9.0, so it might be good to have a contact guy come in every fifth day to throw off opposing teams.

What does this mean for the Milwaukee Brewers?

Well, before spring training had started and I was sure Lohse would find a home before pitchers and catchers reporting, I made it known that I didn’t think they should sign him. In fact, in a post regarding Marco Estrada, I flat out said that the Brewers shouldn’t go after Lohse.

But if the price drops (which it is every day), and if the Brewers can sign him to a two-year deal with a third year team or mutual option, my mind has changed. They should go for it.

Look, I love that the Brewers are going young this season. I love that young arms are getting a chance to start. But really, really think about it. If injuries hit this team like they did last year, there is simply not enough depth to cover the losses. Without Lohse, we are looking at a minimum of two “prospects” to be in the rotation, and one mediocre veteran starter (Chris Narveson) who is just getting out of a season ending rotator cuff injury.

Sure, the battle for the rotation is interesting. You have Mike Fiers, Chris Narveson, Wily Peralta, Mark Rogers, and even Tyler Thornburg all vying for a spot to start. But seriously, what if Rogers and/or Narveson re-injure themselves? What if Fiers pitches like he did in September, when he earned an ERA of 7.09, instead of June/July, when he had a 1.83 ERA? What if Peralta and/or Thornburg just aren’t ready?

There is so much talent in the list of people I just gave you, and all can start, but some of them just flat out aren’t ready, or are very high-risk commitments.

At the very least, Lohse gives the Brewers veteran stability to go behind Yovani Gallardo and Marco Estrada. He might not be a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher like last year, but with his good command, good pitch selection, postseason experience, and what appears to be increased productivity, it’s time to seriously evaluate him as a risk worth taking.

Do I really want it? Do I really want the Brewers to give up that 17th pick? No, I don’t. I wish they would have re-signed Shaun Marcum or gone after guys like Dan Haren or Brandon McCarthy instead.

But when you really sit back and look at it, it’s a bigger risk not to sign him. The youth of this rotation might flourish, or they might be last season’s bullpen and completely sink the team.

It is also worth noting that Lohse has seven years of service on two different NL Central teams, spending two years with the Cincinnati Reds and five with the St. Louis Cardinals. He knows his way around the division, as well as the National League, where he has spent most of career.

Boras is becoming desperate to find Lohse a home, and I’m sure Lohse is just ready to find a place to pitch for the spring. Jim Bowden has predicted the Brewers or the Texas Rangers as the most likely landing spots for Lohse, and the more footage I watch, and the more I worry about starting depth, the more signing Lohse makes sense to me.

Doug Melvin and Gord Ash know that Scott Boras is sweating over getting his client signed. They have dealt with him before, and they know better than any reporter or critic about what’s going on in his mind, but my gut tells me that Boras is in a hole and he needs someone to pull him out. The Brewers should be that team.

Only time will tell, but time is running out, and it’s time for the Brewers, Boras, and Lohse to make their decisions. Here’s to hoping it’s the right one, and that Lohse can perform like he has with the Cardinals the past two seasons.