Sept 12, 2012; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers center fielder Logan Schafer (22) during the game against the Atlanta Braves at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

After Schafer’s rise in 2011, a season in which he saw over 100 plate appearances at rookie ball, he made his big league debut, which totaled five plate appearances and a champagne celebration after clinching the division. Given the odds and circumstances, led by a looming fifty-game suspension, to Braun around this time last year and a lack of outfield depth on the 40-man roster, Schafer’s Opening Day prospects were more than just an unlikely long shot; even if the Brewers, as expected, had gone with a four-man outfield, the Mat Gamel injury in early May and the subsequent moves made would have likely given Schafer his chance.

Braun, thankfully, won his appeal, did not face a suspension, and Schafer, 26, spent 120 games all in AAA Nashville.

With Nyjer Morgan now removed from the outfield picture, the longtime prospect is now ready to take the step to becoming a Brewer.

Despite accumulating only 25 plate appearanceslast season, Schafer posted the seventh-highest WAR among all Brewers. His RAR (Runs above replacement) in during just a September call-up was higher than that of Morgan, Gamel, Alex Gonzalez, Jeff Bianchi, Jean Segura, and Taylor Green, all of whom (with the exception of Maysonet with 66 PA’s) had over three times as many chances at the dish Schafer. His brightest moment came pinch-hitting in the midst of the Brewers’ late surge into postseason contention, trailing 4-1 against the Mets. With Morgan and Segura on first and second, Schafer roped a Jenrry Mejia fastball down the right field line and legged out a triple – one of the two he hit in 2012. The play had a game-high WPA of 23% and Schafer would scurry home on a wild pitch to tie the game, which they would win, 9-6.

Schafer’s offense is nothing to scoff at, but he’ll make his money with his glove. His range and ball instincts are superb. In 38.2 innings in the Brewers outfield, he made four plays out of the typical outfielder’s range. To recall a familiar name for Brewers fans, Schafer looks like a smoother version of Nyjer Morgan in the outfield with an average arm, at best, who can make phenomenal plays with his range.

Here’s to hoping Schafer doesn’t turn out the same as that Conrad guy that I seemed to really like once.

Oct 7, 2011; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers center fielder

For the second straight year, the Boston Red Sox are off to a rough start. After their historic collapse last season, you know this is the last thing they and their fans wanted. On top of that, injuries are starting to mount. First was closer Andrew Bailey. Then yesterday, Jacoby Ellsbury suffered a nasty-looking shoulder injury that will keep him out at least six weeks, but likely more based on what I’ve been reading.

Ellsbury is a huge loss, as he was an MVP-type player last season. The question for them is how to adequately replace him. The player they called up, Che-Hsuan Lin, certainly isn’t the answer. He has a .618 OPS in his AAA career. With the Red Sox off to a slow start, might they be willing to overpay for an established player?

Generally, it is very difficult to find a trading partner this early in the season. Teams aren’t willing to deal players until it becomes more clear they won’t be contending. But the Brewers offer a unique situation. I’ve already written about their outfield logjam and that I would consider trading Nyjer Morgan. Now it seems the Brewers would have a taker. Morgan would be a perfect fill in for Ellsbury, even down to being left-handed. More importantly, the Brewers could actually be willing to trade him. Either one of Logan Schafer or Caleb Gindl seems ready to go, and Norichika Aoki has been impressive. I wouldn’t feel worried at all with Aoki filling in for Morgan’s half of the center field platoon.

So, what would the Brewers get from Boston? Safe to say it won’t be a reliever, even though the Brewers could use one. With Andrew Bailey out, their pen is in a bit of disarray right now. I certainly wouldn’t mind someone able to play shortstop who would allow the Brewers to say goodbye to Cesar Izturis. The Red Sox won’t trade slick fielding prospect Jose Iglesias, but perhaps they’d be willing to trade Mike Aviles and give Iglesias the job. Iglesias nearly won the job out of Spring Training, anyway.

Still, the most likely scenario would likely be a prospect coming back. Boston likely prefers not to trade anyone from their big league team. While it might seem counter-productive for a team like the Brewers, who are clearly going for a playoff spot, to trade a big league player for a prospect, it’s not unprecedented. They traded Gabe Gross for Josh Butler early in 2008, and I would argue that Gross was less replaceable on that team than Morgan is on this one (remember how nice it would have been to have Gross’ lefty bat when Corey Hart was so bad at the end of 2008?)

There is a chance the Brewers could take advantage a bit of Boston’s tough situation and net a pretty nice prospect for Morgan–maybe someone toward the bottom of their top ten prospects list. That would be a great return on a player.  Trading a nothing prospect for him a year ago, getting a year of great production, and then flipping him for a much better prospect wouldn’t be a bad way to go at all. Plus, it frees up a bit of cash for a potential trade later in the season.

I feel like this makes too much sense on paper to happen, but I guess we’ll see.

We are just two weeks away from the start of the regular season.  In all honesty, this Spring has not blessed us with a lot of feel good stories.  Logan Schafer, Caleb Gindl, and Mat Gamel are the only players consistently contributing on offense.  Pitching has been good, but not great. It has left me wanting something to really follow over the final stretch of spring.  

The one thing worth watching, at least for me, over these final two weeks?  Taylor Green and Brooks Conrad playing for the last bench spot. 

Yesterday, RtB staff writer Curt Hogg wrote an article about Mr. Conrad.  I suggest you read it.   Curt is madly, passionately in love with Brooks Conrad.  While I have made very clear my stance on young players, versus career bench players.  I prefer the young guys, in this case Taylor Green.  Neither of those opinions will sway this article, because this is about what Ron Roenicke wants, not what RtB writers want.  

It is no secret at this point that the Brewers will start the season with 5 bench players, which is ultimately what has created this situation.  Loading up on pitchers is a Milwaukee Brewers tradition that RR intends to keep. 

Mar 5, 2012; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Taylor Green (5) reacts to a ball of the bat of San Francisco Giants catcher Chris Stewart (not pictured) during the third inning at Scottsdale Stadium. The ball went foul. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE

Now, I am taking a lot of liberties and making a few assumptions.  Most of those bench spots are locked down, Ron Roenicke is not a very secretive guy.  So let’s re-cap who is pretty much a lock and why it could come down to a two man race for the last spot on the Opening Day Roster.    
 

Norichika Aoki was not brought in from Japan to play in Nashville.  So, the 1st spot belongs to him. 

George Kottaras is Randy Wolf‘s personal catcher.  Wolf does not like Lucroy to catch him, so the 2nd spot is his.  No questions asked.  Done deal.  

Carlos Gomez is starting his third season with the team.  He and Nyjer Morgan share Center Field duties….well, I shouldn’t say share.  Gomez gets to start in CF when there is a left handed pitcher on the mound.  3rd spot is reserved for CarGo.

The 4th spot seemed like a done deal before ST started.  And despite his pathetic offensive showing, Cesar Izturis could still keep the 4th spot.  As we all know RR has a major soft spot for the “minor league coaching class of 2015″, so that is in Izturis’ favor.  Along with him being the only real middle infield depth we have (or so I thought).  HOWEVER, I would be remiss if I did not mention that he only has 2 hits this spring…in 23 AB’s.  This could bode well for both Conrad and Green, but let’s just say Izturis is still spot number 4. 

That leaves one lonely roster spot. 

If you had read Curt’s lover letter to Brooks Conrad, you would know that the old man is having a nice spring.  There is no doubt that he has a tremendous amount of value late in games with his bat.  His only true achievements in baseball (that don’t include errors) are late inning heroics.  Prior to ST I thought he was only a corner infield back-up, which is what I expected Taylor Green to be.  Turns out he can play some 2nd base too.  That bodes poorly for Cesar Izturis, but very well for Brooks. 

What Ron Roenicke Sees:  This one is easy, he sees Mark Kotsay.  A veteran that he can plug in, late in games, and hope that he doesn’t strike out.  RR probably sees a guy who is giving it everything he has got (I may not want Conrad on the roster over Green, but I will not discount his hustle and effort.  The guy works hard) and that is important to a skipper like Ron.  RR also sees a guy who can play 1st, 2nd, and 3rd base.  That makes Izturis a little more expendable, but it makes Green equally as expendable.  Odds he gets the last roster spot – 52%

Taylor Green is young and really proved himself late last season.  There is no doubt that Green belongs in the big leagues.  The biggest thing working against Taylor is his lack of flexibility.  He can play 3rd base and probably some 1st base, but from what I can gather that is about it.  Nice Spring so far, .278 BA, a homer, and a couple of RBI’s.  Tay Green is a budding young talent and in all likelihood, the eventual replacement for Aramis Ramirez.  So, what kind of message are you sending him by banishing him to Nashville to start the season.  I vote for Taylor Green…but it is not up to me.

What Ron Roenicke Sees:  A very talented young kid, who probably will benefit just as much from spot playing in the Big’s as he will playing everyday in Nashville.  RR probably also sees the lack of flexibility.  Maybe Tay plays his music too loudly…Ron won’t like that.  Damn kids with their iPods and Angry Birds.  Even Ron’s love of Old Country Buffet can’t blind him from the fact that Green is really talented.  Odds he gets the last roster spot — 48%

As much as it pains me, I think Curt was right and Brooks Conrad will be on the opening day roster.  That doesn’t mean that Izturis won’t play himself out of a spot either.  Both guys could end up making it in the end.  But, as of right now these are the only two worth watching over the next two weeks.  We’ll see what happens. 

Go Brewers!!!

Oct 9, 2011; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers outfielders

The player I decided to follow this Spring Training is Caleb Gindl. A couple weeks ago, I gave an overview of Gindl as a player and his likely role with the team, both now and in the near future.

We’re a good ways through Spring Training, and Gindl has certainly held his own. With the caveat that 26 Spring Training at-bats are meaningless, Gindl has displayed the solid batter’s eye and decent power that he’s shown the last few years in the minors. His line to this point is .308/.379/.423.

Much more important than his spring numbers are the reviews he’s gotten from the coaching staff. It was nice to see Ron Roenicke compliment Gindl’s defense along with his bat. Both Gindl and especially Logan Schafer have opened some eyes this spring, and I continue to think that we could see an outfielder traded at some point this season. If not this year, then almost certainly in the off-season.

It seems likely that Gindl could handle a Major League job right now, although another year at AAA certainly doesn’t hurt anything. For now, I maintain that if Corey Hart went down for an extended period of time, I’d have no problem playing Gindl against right-handers.

For now, I’d expect Gindl to hang around the big league club for the next week or so before being sent to AAA camp. He’ll play every day in right field and be ready to fill in if needed.

I have always believed that in baseball, more so than other sports, you can learn more from a loss than you will from a win.  Even though today’s games did not end in victory, there were some very exciting things happening.  If certain players learned something, or gained some confidence from today’s games…then the loses are well worth it.

Today the Brewers played the Oakland A’s, meanwhile the Milwaukee Brewers also played the Seattle Mariners.  It’s very strange I know.  Basically, it is a ST gimmick, used to cram more playing time in than the calendar would allow.  This is a practice only used during Spring Training (where attendance is in the Benjamin’s).  It can only happen because of the sheer number of players involved in ST.  These sort of shenanigans can only happen in the magical land of…Arizona.

Game 1:

Brewers 6  vs.  Athletics 8

This game was bizarre.  It really reached ‘Total Recall’ status, when the A’s decimated Frankie De La Cruz in the bottom of the 7th.  Let’s keep it simple.  He did not record an out, but was responsible for 4 runs.  This is something we already know, FDLC is erratic as H.  However, Michael Fiers looked very good today.  The aspiring prospect got the start , pitched 2 solid innings.  Gave up 1 run, on 1 hit, with 4 strikeouts.  Any pitcher will give up runs, but to strikeout 4 of the 6 outs you recorded…nice.  Tim Dillard continues to be very impressive, as h threw two innings and gave up one solo home run. 

The offense was a different story.  Martin Maldonado was the lone Brewers home run in this game.  Logan Schafer and Nyjer Morgan were the only two player to record more than one hit.  On the ST seasons, Schafer is batting .588.  Who is going to complain about that?  Then you have Carlos Gomez…who went 0 for 4, with 2 strikeouts.  That brings his ST average to a smoldering .125.  Maybe we will see a trade before the season starts, because it appears that the Brewers are stacked in the outfield.  Brooks Conrad was no better, he struck out in all 3 of his AB’s.  But my favorite downer of this game would be the 5 and 6 spots in today’s lineup, Taylor Green and Mike Rivera.  Those two fellows combined to leave 11 runners on base. 

What did we learn?  Fiers can pitch.  FDLC is a coin flip.  Dillard should be in the pen.  Logan Schafer might steal Carlos Gomez job. Brooks Conrad misses a lot.  Don’t ever bat Tay Green in front of Rivera.  Score more runs.  Let’s see what was going on with the other Brewers.

Oct 14, 2011; St. Louis, MO, USA; Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher

Game 2:

Mariners 7  vs.  Brewers 4

This game featured another 5 run outburst…this time it was in the Top of the 9th inning.  The score was tied 2-2, until Mark Rogers put himself in a really bad spot.  He left the game with the bases loaded, one run had already scored, and he had only recorded one out.  Things just spiraled out of control from there.  The highlight of this game though, was Zack Greinke.  Our boy threw 3 complete innings, striking out 5, giving up one hit, and one walk.  I’m calling it right now, he is going to win the Cy Young.  You can all laugh if you want, but we should have locked him up before the season started.  We will never be able to afford him after the clinic he puts on this season. 

What I was really excited about today, was Scooter Gennett.  Now, he went 0 for 2, but I was just excited to see him on the field.  Ryan Braun went 0 for 3 again.  My panic meter skipped a little, but went right back to “Don’t Panic”.  It was nice to see Aramis Ramirez and Alex Gonzalez both get into the swing of things, each going 2 for 3.  Travis Ishikawa is trying really hard to make this team.  Today, he hit his 2nd home run of ST and went 2 for 4 on the day.  There are all kinds of upsets a-brewin’ (pun intended).  And, even though the team was down 7-2, George Kottaras hit a 2-run homer to make the score more acceptable.  That home run also gave me hope that the Crew will be able to hit multi-run homers this season…because so-far, it seems like 2011 was not a strange coincidence.  Get ready for A LOT of solo home runs. 

So, what did we learn?  Mark Rogers is meh.  Zack Greinke is going to win the Cy Young and we will all cry.  Scooter Gennett played.  Braun is not making me panic.  Aramis and Alex are in talks to star in their own sitcom.  Travis Ishikawa wants to be the Japanese Prince Fielder. George Kottaras gave me hope. 

Tomorrow we play the Cubs.  Wolf is on the mound.  Aramis Ramirez should sit this one out, unless he wants to get beaned. 

Go Brewers!!! 

Since Spring Training is underway, I thought we would check up on a few players who maybe are not at the forefront of our minds right now.  It is easy to write about Braun, Hart, Greinke…etc.  They get plenty of print and do not need my help.  There are some guys playing pretty good ball right now who are not superstars.  There are also some guys who are not looking so fresh. 

If you are seeking a visual stimulant of the superstar variety, I posted a video in the HUB of some Yo highlights from his start on Tuesday.  Our boy is looking…nasty.  As in filthy.  Check that out.

Brewers Junk Drawer:

Tyler Thornburg and Michael Fiers got roughed up -   Thorny is 21 years old, on the verge of breaking into the big leagues.  Fiers was the organizations minor-league pitcher of the year in 2011.  Both guy got beat up this week.  Fiers got tagged for 4 hits, 3 runs (all earned), a home run, and a 13.50 ERA….in one inning against the White Sox.  It was not great.  Then on Tuesday, Ty Thor never had a chance.  Granted, all 3 of his runs were un-earned, but he did not do himself any favors.  Lead of single, sac fly, double, strikeout, throwing error…two runs score.  That was the end of his day.  While that was not his fault, I still classify that as “getting roughed up”.  No pitcher wants to be responsible for 3 runs, even if they are all unearned.  There is a lot of spring training left.  Both of these guys are going to learn a lot from watching Gallardo, Greinke, Marcum, Wolf…etc.  That is why this is in the junk drawer.  Both guys will turn it around.

 Zelous Wheeler hits first Brewers Home Run of 2012 -   Wheeler unloaded on Jeremy Affeldt in the game on Monday night.  Affeldt is a really good pitcher, and Wheeler took him deep to the opposite field.  What’s that, you want to see the video…oh, I have it:

So, mark it down.  Z-Dub setting the tone.  That was an impressive home run, against a major league reliever.  Well played.

Caleb Gindl benefiting from Hart injury -  Caleb Gindl has gotten a fair amount of playing time so far this spring.  Logan Schafer is also getting his fair share.  Gindl had a monster day at the plate today, with a huge 3-run blast in the 6th inning.  Sorry, no video for this one. He also had a single.  Caleb has always been fascinating to me, not because of his skill, but because of his size.  At a generous 5″9′ and 205 lbs., Gindl is not your prototypical outfielder.  That does not seem to slow him down though.  With Hart out for the duration of Spring Training, I think we will be hearing a lot more about this kid.  I believe that he has the potential to earn a roster spot.  Swings a solid stick, takes pitches (a rarity in these parts), and he is pretty handy with the glove.  His bat will earn him a roster spot. 

August 19, 2011; Flushing, NY, USA; Milwaukee Brewers relief pitcher Frankie De La Cruz (63) and catcher Jonathan Lucroy (20) celebrate after the game against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Brewers defeated the Mets 6-1. Mandatory Credit: Debby Wong-US PRESSWIRE

Frankie De La Cruz does a Jekyll and Hyde -  De La Cruz is a guy who is getting a little old to be a prospect, but he seems to be putting it together…sometimes.  Frankie made his season debut and threw two scoreless inning, only giving up one hit.  Also recorded the 2nd strikeout of the Brewers season (1st – Wily Peralta).  Then today, they gave Frank the ball and he threw up 4′s: 4 hits, 4 runs, and only 4 outs.  This guy is more confusing than Dave Bush.  You’re good, you’re bad, you’re ok, you are the worst, and now you’re in the junk drawer.  Maybe he was working on a new pitch today, who knows.  But after his performance on Sunday, I doubt that ol’ Rick Kranitz told him to make any adjustments.  Let’s hope he figures out how to keep Frank at bay.  Frankie is a way better pitcher. 

 They have only played four games, so a little too soon to really be writing a full report.  Thus, the junk drawer.  The Crew is .500 on the fake season. 

Go Brewers!!

Oct 13, 2011; St. Louis, MO, USA; Milwaukee Brewers outfielders Ryan Braun (left) and Carlos Gomez (27) and Nyjer Morgan (2) celebrate after defeating the St. Louis Cardinals 4-2 in game four of the 2011 NLCS at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE

As part of our roster profile for Spring Training, I will be following outfielder Caleb Gindl. Since being drafted in the fifth round in 2007, Gindl has moved steadily up the organizational ladder. Now at 23, Gindl has shown he’s ready for a big league role, even if he won’t get one right away this season.

At 5’9″ and 205 pounds, Gindl is called “the human bowling ball” by his teammates. He plays all three outfield positions, though his modest speed leaves him best suited for a corner spot. Baseball America ranks him as the Brewers’ number 7 prospect.

I chose to focus on Gindl, because he has some qualities the Brewers could really use. First of all, he bats left-handed. The Brewers’ lineup is right-handed heavy once again this season. More importantly, Gindl has good on-base skills. His career minor league line is .300/.378/.466. Last year, his first year at AAA, he checked in with his best season yet, posting a .390 on-base percentage.

He has moderate power (15 home runs last year), but combined with his solid batting average and OBP, he makes for a solid overall offensive player. His combination of size, stature and skills make me think of a poor man’s Brian Giles.

Gindl should have a future in Milwaukee, although it’s not exactly clear what role that is yet. He’s very much part of an outfield logjam (see my post on trading Nyjer Morgan). Not only are Ryan Braun and Corey Hart are entrenched and signed for multiple years, but Gindl is behind Norichika Aoki, Carlos Gomez, Morgan, and possibly Logan Schafer in the pecking order as well.

Long-term, he should be able to handle at least a platoon role as a semi-regular corner outfielder. As far as this year is concerned, I could see him filling the role Taylor Green filled last year as a solid left-handed bat to come up in September. Otherwise, he’s nice insurance should one of those outfielders get injured.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see how things go for Gindl if he has a nice spring and starts out hot in AAA. If both Gindl and Schafer are playing well, it might motivate the Brewers to trade an outfielder.

Oct 7, 2011; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Nyjer Morgan (2) celebrates with fans after game five of the 2011 NLDS against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Miller Park. The Brewers won 3-2 in 10 innings. Image Credit: Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE

Last year was a match made in Heaven, from the moment Nyjer showed up at the end of Spring Training, met the team, and said, “What up, F*****s!” to his series-winning hit against Arizona (we won’t talk about his play in the NLCS). Milwaukee couldn’t get enough Tony Plush/whatever alter ego you prefer.

So what’s my point? A lot can change in a year, because the Brewers should look into trading their quirky center fielder.

Before I get started, I want to be clear that this post has nothing to do with Morgan’s “antics” or whatever. There has been some discussion that Morgan might wear out his welcome here like he did in Washington, but that doesn’t really concern me. The are two reasons the Brewers should trade him: Morgan’s career year last year, and the Brewers’ outfield logjam.

Let’s start with Morgan’s 2010. He had a very good year, earning a WAR of 4.0 in less than full playing time. It was one of his two best seasons as a pro. Yet, I’d bet against him being as good this year for a few reasons. One is his walk rate. Last year, it was an awful 4.4%. It is incredibly difficult to get on base at a .357 clip with no power and a low walk rate, but Morgan managed to pull that off. It’s largely because of his .362 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which is 20 points higher than his career number. That implies Morgan got quite lucky last season.

I don’t expect him to fall off a cliff or anything, but I just don’t see him putting up a .304/.357/.421 line next year. Bill James’ projection of .288/.345/.362 seems much more likely.

The other thing that allows the Brewers to trade Morgan is the quality outfield depth they suddenly have. When a Braun suspension was possible, it made sense for the Brewers to follow through and sign Nori Aoki–he would have been the left fielder for the first 50 games. Now that Braun will play the full season, Aoki seems relegated to a 5th outfielder. Meanwhile, the Brewers have a nice player in Logan Morgan, a AAA center fielder that Baseball America ranks as the team’s number 6 prospect. Schafer put up a .385 OBP in the minors last season, and provides solid center field defense and speed. Basically, he projects to be Nyjer Morgan with a better walk rate.

Trading Morgan when his value is at its highest could net a nice prospect and free up some money to add a reliever or a bench bat with some pop around the trade deadline. Aoki and Schafer are both left-handed, so they could fill in the platoon role with Carlos Gomez. I doubt the Brewers would skip a beat in this scenario.

Baseball is about turning your surpluses into assets. The Brewers have a surplus of center fielders, and they’d be best served by selling off the one with the best trade value.

Oct 5, 2011; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Carlos Gomez (right) celebrates with teammate George Kottaras after hitting a two run home run in the eighth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks during game four of the 2011 NLDS at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-US PRESSWIRE

In 2011, the Brewers went to great lengths to fill their bench with aging veterans to help the team.  From what I saw this off-season, the team ran out of money, so they could only afford one or two old guys.  From my personal standpoint, this is excellent news.  Veterans should be starters, not bench warmers.  You need to have the young guys getting some opportunities to play in the big leagues, thus your bench should be littered with promising young talent. 

Over the past few seasons, the Brewers have gotten away from that.  Thanks to K-Rod and some well deserved raises, the team did not have the funds to add three to four players worthless players to fill the bench.  Since that is the case, lets meet the some potential bench candidates for the 2012 Crew.

So, here are our options and who I think will be on the opening day roster.

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