With that in mind, we decided to highlight some of the milestone statistics coming down the road this season for a handful of Milwaukee Brewers players.

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His article in USA Today brought to light the possibility – by way of his sources – of an over-zealous investigatory process regarding the leaks in Anthony Bosch’s ‘paperwork’, especially in the case of Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun.

According to Nightengale and others, Ryan Braun is “Public Enemy Number One.” Of course this claim was roundly refuted by Major League Baseball’s Executive Vice President Rob Manfred.

It should be obvious to everyone that we might never know exactly what’s going on in terms of how baseball executives plan to fix this, but it does beg the question:

Don’t we deserve to?

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Ryan Braun led the Brewers in HR/FB ration in 2012. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to Wednesday’s Brewer Stat of the Day. If you missed Monday’s or Tuesday’s stat, you can find them here and here.

Today’s statistic: 13% home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB)

Home run to fly ball ratio is the ratio of home runs a team hits out of their total number of fly balls. In 2012, the Milwaukee Brewers had a 13% HR/FB ratio which was sixth highest in the MLB. Playing in Miller Park certainly has its advantageous when it comes to hitting home runs. According to Hit Tracker Online, Miller Park saw an average of 2.83 home runs per game, second only to Yankee Stadium (obviously).

There’s no doubt that the Brewers stadium influences countless number of home runs, but their lineup has plenty of beef in it as well. Milwaukee led the National League in home runs (202) and had seven different players hit 10+ home runs (four with 20+). Ryan Braun led the way with 41 home runs and posted a career best 22.8% HR/FB ratio. However, Braun’s HR/FB ratio drastically changed from playing at home to on the road. At Miller Park, Braun’s ratio was 28.6% while on the road it was just 17.7%. One must wonder what kind of power numbers he would put up if he played somewhere other than Miller Park.

Here is the HR/FB ratio table courtesy of FanGraphs.com:

I expect to see the Brewers HR/FB ratio rise in 2013, especially if Aramis Ramirez can avoid his early season slump. Carlos Gomez should build on his powerful 2012 year where boasted a career-high 14.3% HR/FB ratio and don’t be surprised if Rickie Weeks sees his numbers take a climb. Power is one thing the Brewers do not have to worry about.

Do you think Miller Park is the reason the Brewers hit so many home runs? Leave comments and questions below! Follow Justin and @ReviewngTheBrew on Twitter. Be sure to like us on Facebook, too.

Unfortunately, Spring Training rarely brings stories that matter nor is it actual baseball in the truest sense of the term. Still though, people in Major League uniforms are running around in a manner that very closely resembles baseball, so it seems only fair that we remind you folks about what’s going on at Maryvale Baseball Park and our own ragtag group of Milwaukee Brewers players.

Here’s the highs and lows of every game the Brewers have played through so far.

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Corey Hart knows what it takes to be clutch. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

If you don’t know what sabermetrics is, read “Moneyball”, a fantastic book by Michael Lewis about the renowned statistician Bill James and the first major league baseball general manager to give his winning formula a go, Billy Beane. To sum it up, sabermetrics is the mathematical and statistical analysis of baseball records.

Sabermetrics goes far beyond the simple statistics, like batting average and slugging percentage, of which the everday baseball fan is aware. It calculates Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Runs Above Replacement (RAR) and just how clutch a player is, among other things.

According to FanGraphs, “clutch measures how well a player performed in high leverage situations.” In other words, if a player hits .270 in high-level situations when he’s an overall .270 hitter he is not considered clutch. He has to perform at a greater level in pressure situations to be labeled as clutch. Clutch takes a look at the past but doesn’t do a very good job of predicting the future; because a player is clutch at one point doesn’t mean he will continue to produce that way.

Clutch is a metric based on win expectancy and is calculated as such:

Clutch = (Win Probability Added/Player’s Average Leverage Index) – Win Probability Added/Leverage Index

-Win Probability Added measures how individual players affect their team’s win expectancy on a per-play basis.
-Player’s Average Leverage Index is a player’s average leverage index for all game events.
-Leverage Index is measure of how important a particular situation is in a baseball game depending on the inning, score, outs, and number of players on base.

To clarify, pLI (player’s average leverage index) refers to the average leverage index of all game events for a given player while WPA (win probability added)/LI (leverage index) refers to context neutral wins.

Below is the Clutch rating chart:

Courtesy of FanGraphs.com

Having a high clutch score doesn’t necessarily mean you’re an All-Star. Mike Trout (-0.19) and Miguel Cabrera (-1.45) had demoralizing clutch scores last season, but they still battled for MVP. Clutch score demonstrates who can continuously produce at a higher level than usual at the biggest moments of the game to propel their team to victory.

Jimmy Rollins, a man who is stratospheres away from his prime, led the league with a 2.35 Clutch score in 2012, despite hitting only .250. But Rollins’ WPA was 3.14 which is considered great on the scoring scale. With runners in scoring position, the shortstop hit .277 including .333 with the bases loaded. Even though hitting .277 with RISP isn’t anything noteworthy, he still performed at a higher level during high-pressure situations and therefore, is clutch.

Despite common thought, Ryan Braun is not the definition of clutch. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

In regards to the Milwaukee Brewers, when you think of who is clutch, your mind probably immediately races to Ryan Braun. You would be wrong. Dead wrong, in fact. In 2012, Braun had a clutch score of -0.63 which is below average. He had an outstanding 4.67 WPA but his average Leverage Index of .98 was below the norm. Sure, he batted .319 but his average with RISP was lower (.307).

The Brewer with the highest clutch score in 2012 was none other than Corey Hart. He accumulated a score of 1.35, good enough for seventh in all of baseball. He had a WPA/LI of .062, a WPA of 2.01, and a pLI of 1.02. Granted, his clutch score rose dramatically on September 1st  when he blasted a walk-off home run against the Pittsburgh Pirates and, if he had played an entire season (149 games in 2012), his score might be a bit lower. But this just shows how important Hart is to the Brewers lineup. The next Brewer on the leaderboard isn’t until No. 34 - Aramis Ramirez with a clutch score of 0.68.

With Hart set to miss a month-plus, who will fill the clutch void? Do the Brewers need to address this or is it a meaningless statistic?

-All statistics and definitions courtesy of FanGraphs.com

Leave comments and questions below! Follow Justin and @ReviewngTheBrew on Twitter. Be sure to like us on Facebook, too.

Now, this team is, by almost all definitions, a young team with talent budding in all areas, ready to flourish and hopefully carry this team to another playoff run. Gone are Prince Fielder, Zack Greinke, and the drastically talent-diminished K-Rod. Braun still remains, though with controversy swirling around him like a swarm of bees to honey, and Weeks is still trying to rehab from a horrific ankle injury that kept him from finding his bat until after the All-Star break in 2012.

I’ll go ahead and tell you now, there are a few certainties on this team, barring some catastrophic injuries (please, for the love of God, let us get through this Spring and the World Baseball Classic only missing Mat Gamel). Guys like Ryan Braun, Corey Hart (once healthy), Aramis Ramirez, and Yovani Gallardo are all proven major leaguers, and I will not classify them as wildcards.

We’re going to take a look at the three biggest wildcards, both from the field, and from the mound, so six players altogether. Part one will be the three position players, and part two will contain the pitchers.

Let’s get started.

1: Jean Segura

Segura was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Greinke to the Los Angeles Angels last season. The Brewers also got a couple of great minor league pitchers out of the deal (Johnny Hellweg and Ariel Pena), but neither are likely to see time with the Brewers this season. Segura is, even with the addition of veteran Alex Gonzalez, Milwaukee’s starting shortstop entering the 2013 season. Last season, his first in the majors, wasn’t all that bad. He finished off his time in Milwaukee with a slashline of .264/.321/.331, knocked in 14 RBIs, and stole seven bases in 148 at-bats with the Brew Crew.

Numbers that don’t sparkle, but they don’t tell the whole story, either. After a slow start in August, hitting just .209 with the Brewers, Segura seemed to finally figure out major league pitching, and finished the season strong, going for a .343 BA in the month of September. We also saw his versatility as a middle-infielder, both at shortstop and second base, and is a potential Gold Glover in the future.

Segura is one of the fastest players on this team, and with a full season, it’s likely he’ll steal at least 30 bases. He might add a little bit of pop and hit a few homers, but don’t expect much power out of him. Segura has the potential to be a guy who gets on base frequently, and will be a constant threat to steal. He’ll also take away many hits up the center as he improves his already impressive fielding.

2: Carlos Gomez

Gomez shouldn’t have to be on this list… he’s been in the majors for six years now. He was once viewed by the New York Mets as a super-prospect, and is the only player Jose Reyes has openly admitted is faster than he is. Gomez, though a six-year vet, is still only 26 years old (he was the youngest player in the MLB when he was called up by the Mets his rookie year). Once viewed as a potential five-tool player, Gomez has never quite found his offensive footing in the majors. Until last season.

He’s always been a Gold Glove caliber centerfielder, and as this team’s full-time CF for the first time in his career, he very well may be in the running for that award this season. He’s also always had unbelievable speed and baserunning skills. The problem has always been getting on base. Before last season, Gomez only had one season in which he hit above .250 (2008 when he hit .258 with the Minnesota Twins), and he doesn’t do a great job of getting on base period, unable to draw many walks. His career slashline of .247/.294/.379 is ugly to look at. His previous career high in homers in a season was 8, in 2011 with the Brew Crew.

But last season, Gomez found his offensive footing and completely exploded… and I don’t think it was a fluke. Gomez put together a much-improved slashline of .260/.305/.463, slugged an impressive 19 homers, drove in 51 runs, and stole 37 bases… all of this in only 415 at-bats, as he spent the first part of the season with very little playing time.

Gomez will rob teams of runs thanks to his defensive prowess in center. He is the fastest player on this team, and will probably steal over 40 bases playing in a full-time capacity. If he can match that power and continue to just hit the ball and continue to find more discipline at the plate, Gomez is going to be a HUGE key for the Brewers.

3: Jonathan Lucroy

I truly can’t wait to see Jonathan Lucroy play for a full season. Seriously. He’s been flying under the general public’s radar for the past three seasons, but I think he’s about to emerge as one of the best catchers in the game. If it weren’t for injuries last season, Lucroy could’ve hit 20+ homers and 90+ RBIs, to go along with his slashline of .320/.368/.513. As it was, in 316 at-bats, Lucroy gave the Brewers 12 homers and 58 RBIs, respectable by any catcher’s standards. But you tack on another 200 at-bats, and Lucroy is going to be as big of an offensive cog as anyone on this team, except perhaps Braun.

You add that on to the fact that Lucroy is already a defensive-minded catcher, with a sure glove and a strong arm—teams might not know much about him yet, but they will soon. He fits the title of catcher of the future in Milwaukee, just like Segura fits the title of SS of the future. Both of these positions have been in question for years, but Segura and Lucroy are filling those holes, and filling them in big ways. If Lucroy stays healthy, don’t be surprised to see him hit around .320-.330, hit 20-25 homers, and drive in 90-100 RBIs.

I’m just saying… Yadier Molina and Buster Posey… it’s time to watch out for Jonathan Lucroy.

So that’s it for part one.

I had a tough time not including Norichika Aoki, a rejuvenated Rickie Weeks, and Alex Gonzalez to this list, but I have my reasons. Nori put together one heck of a rookie season with the Brew Crew, but I (unlike many others) saw it coming. I think he’s only going to get better, but I think teams got the message last season… he’s got some pop in his bat, he can hit for average, he’s a good fielder, and he’s much faster on the bases than anyone thought.

Weeks has been a huge part of this offense before, and despite hitting 20 homers last season, still had a subpar season. When he finally found his bat halfway through, he helped bring the Brewers back into contention. I expect another normal bounce-back season for Weeks. Batting average of around .260, 25 or so homers, and 15 or so stolen bases, along with some spectacular plays on defense, and some spectacular blunders on defense as well.

Gonzalez has never played any position but shortstop in the majors, but he’s very likely going to be asked to be a utility infielder this season, especially with the glaring hole at first base until Hart comes back a month into the season. He’ll hit like he normally does, and he’s an excellent defender, so I think he can acclimate to first base, which is, on the whole, easier to play than shortstop.

All three of those guys, and anyone I didn’t mention, are going to be huge for this team. But I think Segura, Gomez, and Lucroy are really the quiet giants that are going to surprise teams the most this season.

In part two of this brief series, I’ll discuss the three pitchers who I think will have wildcard-like seasons with the Brewers.

A new document, apparently from April of last year, has Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun has his name appear yet again with the figure of $1,500 next to it. The document – a page from a notebook with similar columns of names and figures – does not list either Braun or other mentioned MLB players to specific drugs.

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My biggest problem is the cynicism in fans and pundits that don’t think it’s going to be enough.

Why not?

Sure, there’s been some more controversy within the Brewers camp this offseason, most recently involving a certain superstar player and a certain PED clinic.

I am, of course, talking about Ryan Braun’s name being included in a report concerning Biogenesis and their administration of performance enhancing drugs (PEDs) to certain MLB players.

It should be noted, before delving into why the Brewers will, in fact, win the NL Central, that Braun has come forward and admitted his involvement with Biogenesis. In a recent report, Braun stated that Biogenesis was a company of interest in a research endeavor in his successful PED appeal last offseason.

It is also worth noting that Braun’s name has not been connected at all to any PEDs administered by Biogenesis, and that the MLB, though wanting to take a strict hand to Braun, is going to need more than a name drop for what seems to be a legitimate explanation for an unfortunate snafu.

But let’s talk about what’s really important… the Brewers and their chances of winning the NL Central crown for the second time in three years.

Norichika Aoki is a major wild card for this Brewers team.

If you’re reading this, there’s a good chance I don’t really have to explain the efficiency of this offense. It was one of the best in baseball last year, and driven by big bats like Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez, Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks, and even wild cards like Carlos Gomez, Norichika Aoki, Jonathan Lucroy, and Jean Segura, this is an offense to be feared.

Speed? They have it. Braun has back-to-back seasons in which he has stolen 30 or more bases. Gomez nearly reached 40 last season (37), Norichika Aoki tallied another 30, and Jean Segura, though only stealing 7 bases with Milwaukee last season, is one of the fastest players on this team. Segura swiped 50 bases in 2010 in the Los Angeles Angels’ farm system.

How about Power? Well, you have that too. Without going into great detail, all positions on the field have pop. Braun, Ramirez, Hart, and hopefully a fully recovered Weeks are the obvious sluggers. Add into that Carlos Gomez, who slugged a career high 19 homers last season, Lucroy, who has serious pop at catcher, Aoki, who hit a surprising 10 homers last season, and the only position really lacking in that department is Segura at shortstop, but even back-up Alex Gonzalez is capable of slugging a few deep ones.

The starting rotation is high-risk, high-reward. The only truly known starters are Yovani Gallardo, who is on the verge of becoming a true ace, and Marco Estrada, who is, quite surprisingly, right there with him. Behind those two, you have Mike Fiers, who was the best pitcher in the majors for a couple of months last season, Wily Peralta, who proved he can succeed in the majors during his productive call-up, Chris Narveson, who will be hoping to prove himself after essentially missing the entire 2012 campaign with a torn rotator cuff, and Mark Rogers, the formerly hyped major league prospect, turned bust, turned… well… we’re not really sure yet. But he did a great job in his call-up as well, and without any minor league options left, Rogers will at least be in the bullpen.

The revamped bullpen, featuring Tom Gorzelanny (also a capable starter), lefty specialist Michael Gonzalez, sinkerballer Burke Badenhop, a former major league standout in Kelvim Escobar, and Michael Olmstead, a steal from the Boston Red Sox organization will all be vying for spots on a bullpen that has plenty of open spots and immeasurable room for improvement over last season.

You’re likely looking at Tom Gorzelanny and Mark Rogers as spot starters and long relievers, Burke Badenhop and Michael Gonzalez being middle relievers, with Gonzalez especially being utilized against lefties. The three returnees from last year’s bullpen will likely maintain their roles—Brandon Kintzler will be a middle reliever, Jim Henderson the set-up man, and John Axford the closer. Escobar and Olmstead will almost definitely be beginning the season in the minors, but could quite possibly working their way up to the majors before long.

You add in all of those low-value, high-production players with Alex Gonzalez, who the Brewers signed for infield depth at a massive bargain, and I don’t see the reason to fret.

When you look at this team, there is a lot to be afraid of if you’re not a Brewers fan. It’s an offense that could potentially be the best in the majors. The bullpen is vastly improved. The above additions to go along with returning pen members Jim Henderson, Brandon Kintzler, and John Axford, all capable of throwing into the high-90′s, and all capable of great things.

The only real question mark is starting pitching… beyond Gallardo and Estrada, it’s all question marks and inexperience. But the talent is there in abundance, and essentially every facet of this team is underrated.

They didn’t make any big signings this offseason. They could have gone big for Josh Hamilton or Zack Greinke, but they did the smart thing and made bang-for-your-buck moves to improve the areas that needed drastic improvement.

The Brewers didn’t make the playoffs for one reason last year—their bullpen. And that bullpen has been essentially completely revamped. Not much else has changed for the Brewers, and if they can avoid injuries in abundance (unlike last season), and if the young talent can prove to be major league ready, this is a dangerous team.

One that can earn a wild card berth… or even win the NL Central.

It refers to the fact that the things people – elected officials, aides, and press members – say often times works to destroy somebody with the intent to better their personal position in the District.

While going over the situation that broke with Ryan Braun, I wasn’t sure how I – how we as a press outfit – were going to handle it. Personally, I did what I always did – I went to work. I made calls, I sent out e-mails, I tried to contribute my efforts to our readers as a member of the press. The lack of statements and commentary should speak to how successful I was in those efforts. But I felt I owed it to my readers to give them the most thorough examination of the truth unfettered by my personal opinions and bias.

It dawned on me that perhaps I was not doing my job properly. Because maybe, at least when it comes to steroids and other peripheral business of sports journalism, that true journalism is not my job.

It’s the blood sport of baseball.

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