Let’s get into it. (more…)

Like it or not, those are the facts. The response and reactions by Brewers fans have been decidedly polarized, many arguing that Lohse is just going to be another Jeff Suppan, while many others believing that his success with the St. Louis Cardinals will translate to Milwaukee. After all, Lohse doesn’t have to start against the Brewers anymore—a team he owns a career 4.44 ERA against.

This article isn’t really about what I believe regarding Lohse, what I think about the reactions, or anything like that… though my opinions will be present in my evaluation of him. It’s just that I’ve been sitting here racking my brain trying to figure out how this is going to impact the starting rotation. Who’s in, who’s out? How will those chosen to carry the starting torch perform? And what will the outsiders looking in be left to do?

To start, we’re going to go with the three certainties of this rotation. Barring injury, these first three pitchers make a formidable punch in the National League (which is somewhat hinting at my opinion on Lohse).

1 – Yovani Gallardo 

The ace of the rotation, even though the man just signed gave up 0.8 less runs per nine innings than Gallardo last season. That’s not a knock on Gallardo—he’s the best pitcher in this rotation until someone definitively shows otherwise. His ERA is consistently bloated by a few really, really bad starts every year. For roughly 27 games, you can expect Gallardo to go on the mound and be one of the best pitchers in baseball. For the other five, you have to watch his 93 MPH fastball get clobbered out of the ballpark over and over again. His stat-line last season was pretty decent—16-9, 3.66 ERA, 204 IP, 204 K, 1.304 WHIP—but it’s only a glimpse of what he’s capable of.

Gallardo always puts together numbers similar to those… a K/9 of around 9.0, an ERA in the mid-3′s, and pretty good numbers everywhere that just don’t shout “ace”. To see the ace in Yovani, you have to go deeper than the numbers and realize that he’s better than his statistics indicate. He’s a dominating presence on the mound almost every time he steps out, he’s capable of going the full nine (even though skipper Ron Roenicke won’t allow it), and he will give you 200 good innings a season. He has the stuff of an ace, with a fastball sitting around 92-94, a new cutter around 90s, a slider/cutter hybrid in the mid-80s, and a huge power curve in the low 80s.

He will continue to be the ace for the foreseeable future… hopefully a contract extension is in the works.

2 – Kyle Lohse

The man that started the article, the man that is lighting up Milwaukee fans around the country, and the man that everyone is glad to see find a home, if for no other reason than to end the news cycle. Lohse’s free agency expedition is well documented and commented on, and may very well be the catalyst in reforming some of the draft-pick compensation rules that came with the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. A client of Scott Boras (AKA: He Who Must Not Be Named, You Know Who, LORD VOLDEMORT), Lohse naturally came out of the season and into the winter aiming for the stars, seeking a deal for as long as five years at $15 million a year. Yeah right. If the Brewers had jumped on that grenade, maybe then I’d be a little perturbed.

Behind Gallardo, Lohse is going to carve a nice home in the Keg. The many doubters out there will point to his mediocre-to-bad seasons, primarily when he was in the American League, but it’s a lot easier for me to look at the very recent success he’s had in a division he’s very familiar with. The Suppan comparisons are, quite frankly, outrageous. Lohse has some very good pitches, and since he’s developed his low-90s two-seam fastball, he’s been one of the best pitchers in the NL Central, leading the league in win percentage last season (16-3), and as I mentioned besting Gallardo by a significant margin in ERA with a sparkling 2.86 ERA in 2012, and another great ERA of 3.39 the year before. Suppan had a fastball that sat at 87 MPH, and didn’t have much else. He was a bum and a bad signing, period. Lohse is not the same pitcher.

He’s a ground ball pitcher, not relying much on the strikeout. That’s okay though, because Aramis Ramirez played Gold Glove defense at third, Jean Segura is a young and very talented shortstop, Rickie Weeks will commit his fair share of errors, but is an altogether solid defender at second, and once Hart is back in action, he’ll be fine at 1st.

Lohse probably won’t replicate his sub-3 ERA with Milwaukee this season. I’m expecting him to give them around 200 innings of mid-3 ERA work. My official prediction: 209 IP, 3.48 ERA, 135K, 1.110 WHIP. Good enough to be a strong No. 2 behind Yo.

3: Marco Estrada

Entering Spring Training, long before the addition of Lohse, Estrada was pegged as the No. 2 starter behind Gallardo. I don’t think he’s going to have his feelings hurt being knocked down one peg to number three, especially when it’s an established veteran like Lohse taking his No. 2 spot.

I’m a huge Marco Estrada fan, and I’m not going to pretend otherwise. The fact that the Brewers obtained him for pretty much nothing and have turned him into an absolutely fantastic pitcher is a beautiful thing to me. He had a remarkable season last year, with a sparkling stat-line (5-7, 3.64 ERA, 138.1 IP, 143 K, 1.142 WHIP, and a ridiculous K/BB of 4.93), and a solid pitching repertoire that has continued to blossom. He hits his spots with his low-to-mid 90s fastball, and he misses a ton of bats with his strong cruve, and his bread and butter, a fading change-up in the low 80s.  Estrada can strikeout batters in droves, and in most starts, he looks like Yovani Gallardo 2.0 (with an even better ERA and K/BB!)

This will be his first season entering opening day as a starter instead of a long reliever. Given this immediate boost, and barring an injury, Estrada will be another pitcher who gives the Brewers 200 innings and he will deliver a K/9 around 9.0, similar to that of Gallardo. The thing is, I think Estrada isn’t just going to be as good as last year—I think he’s going to be better. If his strong spring training is any indication (1.88 ERA, 14.2 IP, 12 K, 9.5 OppQual), Estrada is going to emerge as a household name in 2013, and could very well outshine the two high-profile names above him. Don’t be surprised if Estrada posts an ERA in the low-3′s. His method of pounding the strike zone while still getting hitters to miss the ball is an ability no other Brewers pitcher has. It could be special.

4. Chris Narveson

Okay, here’s where things start to get tricky. Narveson has performed fairly well this spring, and appears to have come back from a season ending torn rotator cuff that limited him to two (bad) starts last season. He’s a lefty with a lot of major league experience, and he knows how to pitch in the majors. I’m not wild about Narveson, and in most other rotations, I believe he’d be the No. 5 starter at best, but we’ll get there in a minute.

Realistically, Roenicke and pitching coach Rick Kranitz are going to keep Narveson on a very, very short least, especially to start the season. Five inning outings, and any sign of trouble will result in Narveson being pulled and evaluated. Narveson doesn’t have any pitches that blow you away, and his fastball only touches 90 once every blue moon, but he mixes his pitches well, and even with his lack of knockout pitches, he still does a good job of striking batters out, owning a career K/9 of 7.4 (compared to Lohse’s 5.6). The fact that he’s done well this spring and is a left handed pitcher gives him the upper-edge over the other guys vying for the last two spots in the rotation. You can expect a so-so year from Narveson as long as he stays healthy. Around 160 or so innings, an ERA in the mid-4′s… you know the drill with Narveson. Nothing that will astonish you (except on the occasional night when he looks like an ace), but nothing that will repulse you.

5. Wily Peralta AND Mike Fiers

Okay, okay. I know. One spot, two pitchers. But think about it… does platooning the fifth spot not make at least a little sense? Mike Fiers clearly showed us last year that he is more than capable of pitching in the majors, and was, at one point, the most un-hittable man on the mound in the country. Peralta is a young fireballer who saw success in his limited time as a Brewer last season. Both are ready to start in the majors (even if their spring training numbers haven’t been great), and both are good enough to earn this fifth spot. After the top three, the Brewers are going to be doing a lot of mixing and matching, so why not start the season out with a six-man rotation, having Fiers and Peralta start once every 10 days each, with some bullpen time inbetween to keep their arms active? It’s an experiment worth trying when you’re looking at two candidates both deserving of the job.

If the powers that be in Milwaukee decide it has to be one or the other (which they probably will), I’d have to say they’re going to give Peralta the job, but have Fiers on speed dial ready to make a run like he did last year in place of an ineffective or an injured pitcher. Giving the nod to Peralta is because of his upper-90s fastball and devastating slider… two pitches that are just too good to pass up, and even though his spring numbers aren’t much to look at, I think he’s going to be just fine if he’s given the opportunity.

The rest of it. 

Mark Rogers is out of minor league options and to say that he has underperformed this Spring is an understatement. He’s suffering from a case of “dead arm” right now, lowering his velocity and greatly limiting his control. He’s confident this will blow over and he’ll be ready to contribute to the team. But when… well, if this happens, what role will Rogers serve? Tom Gorzelanny is the long reliever, and Melvin already made plenty of upgrades in what was the the worst bullpen in the majors from last year.

Rogers is going to start the season as a middle relief pitcher, probably getting a few long relief appearances if Gorzelanny is seeing too much action in too short of a time. There’s no way the Brewers risk placing him on waivers to go to the minors, because any number of teams would scoop him up in a heartbeat, and there goes a fifth overall draft pick with seemingly unlimited, but still unrealized potential. If this dead arm phase passes, and Rogers starts to perform, what happens to the rotation? What about Tyler Thornburg and Johnny Hellweg, both sent to AAA Nashville, but both nearly ready to make it in the bigs?

A lot of people are saying this rotation lacks depth, but I’d argue that they’re suffering from a bit too much, though that’s not really a bad problem, given the fact that any number of these pitchers could be injured at any point (knock on wood).

I love the addition of Lohse. Without him, the rotation is too young and too volatile. I think he’s going to perform well in Milwaukee, and I think the comparisons to Jeff Suppan are pretty outlandish.

If nothing else, with the addition of Lohse, the Brewers’ top three starters combine to make a formidable punch, and the bottom of the rotation (along with the outsiders looking in) contain massive upside. This is not a rotation to be overlooked.

One of the best starters in baseball last year statistically.

Spearheaded a rotation that has made deep playoff runs two years in a row, including a World Series championship.

Two consecutive seasons of statistical mastery, and a fairly expansive repertoire with ever improving control.

2012 statline: 16-3 (league leading .842 W-L%), 2.86 ERA, 211 IP, 143 K, 1.090 WHIP, 3.76 K/BB

All of these things lead one to believe that every major league team would be drooling at getting that pitcher off the market for a price that is dropping every day now that spring training has began. Those are ace-like numbers, and still, the owner of that statline, Kyle Lohse, remains unsigned at the time of writing this article (2/19/13).

Why? Well, there are a couple of reasons, but I’ll discuss the two big ones. First, and probably foremost is the fact that he is represented by Scott Boras, the uber-agent who forces teams to sell their souls and their firstborn chil… I mean, spend a lot of money and commit to a lot of years on contracts for the players he represents.

I won’t beat around the bush. I hate Scott Boras. I think what he’s doing to baseball is damaging the sport on the same level as steroid-usage and the fallout it created in the 90′s and early 2000′s. Boras oversells his clients, teams are forced to sell the farm and their left legs to get a decent player, and then they’re stuck for a decade and 200 million dollars with a player who will, inevitably, stop producing at a level worthy of such high pay.

Why do I hate this? It kills smaller clubs. Teams like… well… the Milwaukee Brewers can’t compete with that level of spending, and many teams lose their best players to mega-teams like the New York Yankees, the Los Angeles Angels, the Boston Red Sox, and a few choice others.

Let’s just say baseball needs a salary cap, and you can blame Scott Boras for that.

But, in Kyle Lohse’s case, it doesn’t seem that Boras is really doing a great job of selling his client. Naturally, Boras asked for an outrageous amount of money and a long-term deal for Lohse, who is already 34 and has had only two good seasons in the majors, a couple of average-to-mediocre seasons, and a bunch of bad ones.

So, count Boras and his overzealous method of selling clients as a negative for Lohse. Also, count draft pick compensation against Lohse. Signing him means giving up the team’s first round draft pick… in Milwaukee’s case, that would be the 17th overall pick, and a mid-first round pick is nothing to shake off. There is some legitimate talent coming into this draft, and the Brewers (as well as every other team in the majors, obviously) are turned off by the fact that they have to give up that first round pick for a pitcher that may or may not be worth it.

Lohse has seen a decrease in his velocity all across his repertoire. His fastball has dropped a few clicks, and now sits around 90 MPH. Not too bad, considering he has gained control with the decrease in velocity, but the question has to be asked: Is his arm getting tired, or did he just sacrifice velocity for control?

If you look at sabermetrics, you won’t be able to sort much out either. All indications are that he had two great seasons, and that they weren’t flukes. In fact, his career FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching—think of it as a more comprehensive version of ERA) is a few clicks lower than his traditional ERA… his ERA standing at a career 4.45, while his FIP is at 4.34, indicating that, on the whole over his career, he is slightly better than what surface statistics tell us.

Sure, he’s not a strikeout pitcher. A measly career K/9 of 5.6 is not a lot to look at. But he does a great job of getting ground ball outs, last season getting 40.5 percent of batters to ground out. The rest of the rotation is more than capable of having K/9s of over 9.0, so it might be good to have a contact guy come in every fifth day to throw off opposing teams.

What does this mean for the Milwaukee Brewers?

Well, before spring training had started and I was sure Lohse would find a home before pitchers and catchers reporting, I made it known that I didn’t think they should sign him. In fact, in a post regarding Marco Estrada, I flat out said that the Brewers shouldn’t go after Lohse.

But if the price drops (which it is every day), and if the Brewers can sign him to a two-year deal with a third year team or mutual option, my mind has changed. They should go for it.

Look, I love that the Brewers are going young this season. I love that young arms are getting a chance to start. But really, really think about it. If injuries hit this team like they did last year, there is simply not enough depth to cover the losses. Without Lohse, we are looking at a minimum of two “prospects” to be in the rotation, and one mediocre veteran starter (Chris Narveson) who is just getting out of a season ending rotator cuff injury.

Sure, the battle for the rotation is interesting. You have Mike Fiers, Chris Narveson, Wily Peralta, Mark Rogers, and even Tyler Thornburg all vying for a spot to start. But seriously, what if Rogers and/or Narveson re-injure themselves? What if Fiers pitches like he did in September, when he earned an ERA of 7.09, instead of June/July, when he had a 1.83 ERA? What if Peralta and/or Thornburg just aren’t ready?

There is so much talent in the list of people I just gave you, and all can start, but some of them just flat out aren’t ready, or are very high-risk commitments.

At the very least, Lohse gives the Brewers veteran stability to go behind Yovani Gallardo and Marco Estrada. He might not be a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher like last year, but with his good command, good pitch selection, postseason experience, and what appears to be increased productivity, it’s time to seriously evaluate him as a risk worth taking.

Do I really want it? Do I really want the Brewers to give up that 17th pick? No, I don’t. I wish they would have re-signed Shaun Marcum or gone after guys like Dan Haren or Brandon McCarthy instead.

But when you really sit back and look at it, it’s a bigger risk not to sign him. The youth of this rotation might flourish, or they might be last season’s bullpen and completely sink the team.

It is also worth noting that Lohse has seven years of service on two different NL Central teams, spending two years with the Cincinnati Reds and five with the St. Louis Cardinals. He knows his way around the division, as well as the National League, where he has spent most of career.

Boras is becoming desperate to find Lohse a home, and I’m sure Lohse is just ready to find a place to pitch for the spring. Jim Bowden has predicted the Brewers or the Texas Rangers as the most likely landing spots for Lohse, and the more footage I watch, and the more I worry about starting depth, the more signing Lohse makes sense to me.

Doug Melvin and Gord Ash know that Scott Boras is sweating over getting his client signed. They have dealt with him before, and they know better than any reporter or critic about what’s going on in his mind, but my gut tells me that Boras is in a hole and he needs someone to pull him out. The Brewers should be that team.

Only time will tell, but time is running out, and it’s time for the Brewers, Boras, and Lohse to make their decisions. Here’s to hoping it’s the right one, and that Lohse can perform like he has with the Cardinals the past two seasons.

Well, my day just got a WHOLE LOT better when I read this little number by Bob Wolfley of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel.

If you don’t want to read the article, I will summarize it for you. It’s a review – of sorts – of a new book by Tony LaRussa, the St. Louis Cardinals former manager, master of gamesmanship, and owner of a well-worn Botox frequent customer card. The book is titled One Last Strike, and is set to hit shelves on September 25th.

I have not been given my advance copy yet (hint, hint, publishing company) so I can only go off the obviously selective retelling that Wolfley has provided the world – but there are some real gems in here that make me literally drool over this piece of what undoubtedly will be one the finest pieces of revisionist history in baseball.

Here’s what the ever-charming and always straight-shooting LaRussa had to say about his dust-ups with Milwaukee in 2011, which appear to take up some substantial length in his book.

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We’re taking one last ride on our monthly train across the NL Central to take the pulse on the division.

This time: it’s playoff related.

We’re skipping over a few of the teams in our division who have unfortunately sailed off into the lands of elimination (it’s OK kids, there’s a big farm there where they play baseball all winter long with other eliminated teams). We are also not covering the Reds in this edition because, well, there’s just nothing exciting about a team and fan base that’s successful.

We’re striving for gritty realism here. We’re looking for desperation. We’re looking for panic. We’re looking for false hope, delusion, and the final strands of mercy clung to by legions of season-weary fans.

That’s why we’re talking Wild Card contenders. Three teams in the NL Central are contending for a Wild Card spot with various degrees of seriousness. Here they are.

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For this preview, I asked James Benoit, an editor at Redbird Rants a few questions about his Cardinals. Redbird Rants is FanSided’s St. Louis Cardinals blog and you can check them out by clicking on the link and you can follow them on Twitter. You can also follow James on Twitter as well. Here’s what James had to say:  (more…)

• dissapointing
• frustrating
• infuriating
• depressing
• unbelievable

Regardless of your choice of adjective, the 2012 Brewers campaign has left the Crew with quite a hill to climb in terms of taking back their Central Division title. Since late June, however, they have been quietly working their way back the only way they know how: putting one foot in front of the other.

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