Did Lou give me a slightly back-handed compliment? WIN!!!! Photo: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

This is round 2 of my monthly segment.  This should catch you up to speed:

If you are not sure what exactly a banality is, it is just a fancy way of saying “old news” or “cliché”.  Essentially, once a month I am going to lay out a couple of Brewers issues or topics that may be a little played out, but then I will give them my spin.  I have been told that my spin is sometimes stupid, uneducated, and even immature.

Essentially, I am going to address news that we have all beaten to death…and just give you my unique and often mentally unstable thoughts on said news.  There is a lot to get to, so here we go.

Brewers Re-Sign K-Rod:  If I overlook the fact that the last time he made news in Milwaukee it was for beating his girlfriend, this signing still pisses me off.  People are going to say, “Well it is a low risk, high reward signing”.  I want to know what the reward is?  Do you seriously think that K-Rod is going to come in and save the bullpen single-handedly and become a model teammate and citizen?  The odds of that are the same as Yovani’s BAC (more to come on that), 0.22%.  This is just a waste of time and resources.  There is a reason he was still available.  I hated the initial trade for Rodriguez, hated seeing him come out of the bullpen, and loved watching him completely implode on himself once he was given the closer role.  From my standpoint, this is going to be a non-story in about 30 days.  He won’t pitch well enough to bump anyone off the roster.  Calling my shot now.

Yovani Gallardo DUI:  Just go read Colin Bennett’s article.  He sums it up better than I ever could.  The one thing I would like to add…Wisconsin’s DUI “policy” (if you can call it that) is disgusting.  A $300 ticket?!?!?  Initially, I thought that was misreported, but no.  Shame on the state that I call home.  And super-shame on Bud Selig for wasting time buying medical records so he can bust 6 players for HGH…rather than protecting the lives of his players and the communities that pay his robust salary.  Oh yeah, did we all forget that Bud Selig tried to purchase confidential medical records?  That happened…even if it has been swept under the rug.  At what point do we, as fans, simply give up and just let athletes break any and every law they choose…unless it has to do with HGH or steroids, which will require the Supreme Court.  Those players are criminals and should be persecuted to the fullest extent of the law (please re-read the last two sentences with intense sarcasm and spite). 

Yuni Betancourt’s Grand Slam:  My initial reaction to his Grand Slam off of Barry Zito was disbelief.  Then I saw that it was the 5^th big slam of his career.  Yuni has hit 5 Grand Slams!?!?!  Then it turned into blind dumbfounded rage!!!  Ryan Braun only has 3…!!!  Yuni’s 5^th career slam puts him in an elite club with;   Roger Maris, Ryne Sandberg, Honus Wagner, Gorman Thomas, Mike Cameron, Rob Deer, Will Clark, Cecil Cooper, and Rod Carew.  Pretty amazing when you think about it…might be worth holding onto this guy after all.  I am not willing to say I like him, but even I can admit when a player does something impressive.  Yuni has been a blessing this season, rather than the burden he was in 2011.   

Rickie Weeks’ struggles:  My last article was about Rickie not being “clutch”.  Since I wrote that article, I have realized two very important things.  One, it is almost impossible to truly quantify what makes a player clutch.  Two, I did not do a very good job explaining my own definition of clutch.  Here is the real issue, which was brought up to me by several readers, Weeks is not a clean-up hitter.  This has less to do with Rickie and more to do with Ron Roenicke.  Weeks is also not a run producer, never has been and in all likelihood never will be.  But here is a secondary problem: I love Norichika Aoki leading off with Jean Segura in the 2 slot…where does that put Rickie?  Once Ramirez is back I would assume he takes over at 5 or 6, which one will depend on how Jonathan Lucroy keeps swinging the stick.  Rickie did have a huge hit on Tuesday night, but aside from that he continues to struggle mightily batting behind Ryan Braun.      

Mike Fiers Sent to Triple-A:  This is not surprising.  I like Fiers and think that he is talented, but his ST showed that he is not quite ready to be in the rotation yet.  However, I would like to emphasize “yet”.  Here is my second called shot of this article, I predict that he will be in the rotation by the end of the season.  Mike Fiers is a starter, not a bullpen arm.  Guy can throw, but he needs to be throwing every 5 days not getting spot work out of the bullpen.  That is why he is on his way to Nashville.  I am also pretty pumped to see Hiram Burgos go after the Cubs.  So this is not really a bad thing, just not what many of us expected.

The Giants Series: The Crew scored 21 runs against the reigning champs this week.  In the 11 previous games this year, they scored 36 runs.  We all knew that it was only a matter of time before the bats came alive.  But to do so in such grand fashion (pun intended), is a little startling.  How can you go from not scoring a run for almost 3 full games, to demolishing one of the best pitching rotations in the game?  I don’t know, and I am not sure I want to know…I just want it to continue.

Blake Lalli: When your first career hit is to win a game against the defending World Series Champs, you deserve your own hashtag.  My personal favorite was coined by our very own Curt Hogg, #Lallipopguild.  I am just glad that Alex Gonzalez’s (insert sarcasm) amazing bunt  didn’t screw everything up.  Don’t misunderstand, I do not blame Alex for that, I blame RRR for refusing to let his hitters swing away.  This bunting nonsense has gotten ridiculous.  Ron is lucky that the new guy bailed him out.

Gallardo is not an “ace”. He’s not a stud pitcher and should never, ever be associated with Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw. He is more of a lower-tier “king” who is more than capable of pitching like a top-tier pitcher and has done so on occasion. However, that does not make him  a true ace, and I’d even argue that Gallardo hasn’t been the team’s ace since 2010.

Yovani Gallardo is good, but he’s not an ace. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Before I go any further, we must discuss what the definition of an ace is. To me, an ace is someone who has a great chance of absolutely shutting down opponents night in and night out. An ace is a player can throw a complete game with no problem and who makes batters look silly on a consistent basis. An ace is the pitcher in which you have the utmost faith in the most crucial of situations. Gallardo does not fit the criteria.

Don’t agree with me? Well, let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

The 27-year-old owns a record of 69-44 and, while that is more than respectable, his ERA (3.69) looks more like an ERA of a No. 2 or 3 starter.

Gallardo is a six-inning pitcher. Rarely does he go beyond that, and there are a couple of factors that contribute to this. One reason is that Ron Roenicke is overly obsessed with pitch counts and almost never lets his pitcher finish a ball game. Since Roenicke took the reins in 2011, the Brewers rank last in complete games with only one (Gallardo in 2011). But the biggest factor as to why Gallardo doesn’t go deep into games is because he gets himself into deep counts with almost every batter he faces. He doesn’t have that “out” pitch that top-of-the-rotation hurlers have. He turns to his curveball when he’s ahead in the count but he can rarely throw that for a strike. By  the fifth or sixth inning, his pitch count is in the upper-90′s leaving Roenicke no choice but to pull him. Take yesterday, for example. Gallardo pitched extremely well, limiting the the San Francisco Giants to one run on five hits. Yet he only lasted six innings because his pitch count was already at 92.

In his six major league seasons, Gallardo has four complete games. Let’s compare that to the other star pitchers around the league. Verlander (eight seasons) has accumulated 20 complete games including six last season alone. Kershaw (five seasons) has thrown nine complete games and CC Sabathia (12 seasons) has 35 complete games on his resume.

Gallardo has the tools to be an ace but hasn’t demonstrated it yet. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

I think it’s fair to say that Gallardo is not on the same level as these guys.

Before his outing yesterday, 2013 had not been kind to Gallardo. In his first three starts, he had an ERA of 6.61 and his WHIP was 1.78 (7th-worst in the majors). Opponents swing and miss at Gallardo’s pitches only 4.6% of the time (4th-worst). His strikeout pitch is not in existence and batters are squaring up on his pitches more than ever. Batters are hitting an astonishing .361 versus Gallardo. That’s not exactly what you want out of your go-to starter.

While you don’t have to be a flamethrower to be considered one of baseball’s best (see Greg Maddux), it sure does help. Gallardo can blow it by the best of them but his fastball velocity (92.2 MPH) is not anything noteworthy. His low-90′s fastball makes hitting his location even more pertinent. If he leaves it up, see ya later.

Gallardo might be called Milwaukee’s ace but you must take that with a grain of salt. He has the tools to become a Cy Young candidate but taking those tools and building something is a different story. Gallardo would greatly benefit from a pitching coach not named Rick Kranitz and a manager who isn’t so worried about pitch counts.

Yovani Gallardo is a very good pitcher but is more suited as a No. 2 starter. He will rack up double-digit wins yet again this season, but calling him an ace is like calling Jeff Suppan a future Hall of Famer; it just doesn’t make any sense.

Do you think Yovani Gallardo is an ace? Leave comments and questions below! Follow Justin and @ReviewngTheBrew on Twitter. Be sure to like us on Facebook, too.

And he got busted for it. While I take serious issue with this fact alone, the pending punishment from MLB and the Milwaukee Brewers will likely be fairly light. I take a more serious issue with that.

I take issue with it because Major League Baseball and the players employed by the league as a whole and the teams therein have no problem identifying themselves as a social institution, and further recognizing the responsibilities inherent with that label. When it comes to issues of alcohol, illicit drugs, and other disreputable behavior like domestic violence however, they seem to be speaking out of both sides of their mouth.

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Like it or not, those are the facts. The response and reactions by Brewers fans have been decidedly polarized, many arguing that Lohse is just going to be another Jeff Suppan, while many others believing that his success with the St. Louis Cardinals will translate to Milwaukee. After all, Lohse doesn’t have to start against the Brewers anymore—a team he owns a career 4.44 ERA against.

This article isn’t really about what I believe regarding Lohse, what I think about the reactions, or anything like that… though my opinions will be present in my evaluation of him. It’s just that I’ve been sitting here racking my brain trying to figure out how this is going to impact the starting rotation. Who’s in, who’s out? How will those chosen to carry the starting torch perform? And what will the outsiders looking in be left to do?

To start, we’re going to go with the three certainties of this rotation. Barring injury, these first three pitchers make a formidable punch in the National League (which is somewhat hinting at my opinion on Lohse).

1 – Yovani Gallardo 

The ace of the rotation, even though the man just signed gave up 0.8 less runs per nine innings than Gallardo last season. That’s not a knock on Gallardo—he’s the best pitcher in this rotation until someone definitively shows otherwise. His ERA is consistently bloated by a few really, really bad starts every year. For roughly 27 games, you can expect Gallardo to go on the mound and be one of the best pitchers in baseball. For the other five, you have to watch his 93 MPH fastball get clobbered out of the ballpark over and over again. His stat-line last season was pretty decent—16-9, 3.66 ERA, 204 IP, 204 K, 1.304 WHIP—but it’s only a glimpse of what he’s capable of.

Gallardo always puts together numbers similar to those… a K/9 of around 9.0, an ERA in the mid-3′s, and pretty good numbers everywhere that just don’t shout “ace”. To see the ace in Yovani, you have to go deeper than the numbers and realize that he’s better than his statistics indicate. He’s a dominating presence on the mound almost every time he steps out, he’s capable of going the full nine (even though skipper Ron Roenicke won’t allow it), and he will give you 200 good innings a season. He has the stuff of an ace, with a fastball sitting around 92-94, a new cutter around 90s, a slider/cutter hybrid in the mid-80s, and a huge power curve in the low 80s.

He will continue to be the ace for the foreseeable future… hopefully a contract extension is in the works.

2 – Kyle Lohse

The man that started the article, the man that is lighting up Milwaukee fans around the country, and the man that everyone is glad to see find a home, if for no other reason than to end the news cycle. Lohse’s free agency expedition is well documented and commented on, and may very well be the catalyst in reforming some of the draft-pick compensation rules that came with the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. A client of Scott Boras (AKA: He Who Must Not Be Named, You Know Who, LORD VOLDEMORT), Lohse naturally came out of the season and into the winter aiming for the stars, seeking a deal for as long as five years at $15 million a year. Yeah right. If the Brewers had jumped on that grenade, maybe then I’d be a little perturbed.

Behind Gallardo, Lohse is going to carve a nice home in the Keg. The many doubters out there will point to his mediocre-to-bad seasons, primarily when he was in the American League, but it’s a lot easier for me to look at the very recent success he’s had in a division he’s very familiar with. The Suppan comparisons are, quite frankly, outrageous. Lohse has some very good pitches, and since he’s developed his low-90s two-seam fastball, he’s been one of the best pitchers in the NL Central, leading the league in win percentage last season (16-3), and as I mentioned besting Gallardo by a significant margin in ERA with a sparkling 2.86 ERA in 2012, and another great ERA of 3.39 the year before. Suppan had a fastball that sat at 87 MPH, and didn’t have much else. He was a bum and a bad signing, period. Lohse is not the same pitcher.

He’s a ground ball pitcher, not relying much on the strikeout. That’s okay though, because Aramis Ramirez played Gold Glove defense at third, Jean Segura is a young and very talented shortstop, Rickie Weeks will commit his fair share of errors, but is an altogether solid defender at second, and once Hart is back in action, he’ll be fine at 1st.

Lohse probably won’t replicate his sub-3 ERA with Milwaukee this season. I’m expecting him to give them around 200 innings of mid-3 ERA work. My official prediction: 209 IP, 3.48 ERA, 135K, 1.110 WHIP. Good enough to be a strong No. 2 behind Yo.

3: Marco Estrada

Entering Spring Training, long before the addition of Lohse, Estrada was pegged as the No. 2 starter behind Gallardo. I don’t think he’s going to have his feelings hurt being knocked down one peg to number three, especially when it’s an established veteran like Lohse taking his No. 2 spot.

I’m a huge Marco Estrada fan, and I’m not going to pretend otherwise. The fact that the Brewers obtained him for pretty much nothing and have turned him into an absolutely fantastic pitcher is a beautiful thing to me. He had a remarkable season last year, with a sparkling stat-line (5-7, 3.64 ERA, 138.1 IP, 143 K, 1.142 WHIP, and a ridiculous K/BB of 4.93), and a solid pitching repertoire that has continued to blossom. He hits his spots with his low-to-mid 90s fastball, and he misses a ton of bats with his strong cruve, and his bread and butter, a fading change-up in the low 80s.  Estrada can strikeout batters in droves, and in most starts, he looks like Yovani Gallardo 2.0 (with an even better ERA and K/BB!)

This will be his first season entering opening day as a starter instead of a long reliever. Given this immediate boost, and barring an injury, Estrada will be another pitcher who gives the Brewers 200 innings and he will deliver a K/9 around 9.0, similar to that of Gallardo. The thing is, I think Estrada isn’t just going to be as good as last year—I think he’s going to be better. If his strong spring training is any indication (1.88 ERA, 14.2 IP, 12 K, 9.5 OppQual), Estrada is going to emerge as a household name in 2013, and could very well outshine the two high-profile names above him. Don’t be surprised if Estrada posts an ERA in the low-3′s. His method of pounding the strike zone while still getting hitters to miss the ball is an ability no other Brewers pitcher has. It could be special.

4. Chris Narveson

Okay, here’s where things start to get tricky. Narveson has performed fairly well this spring, and appears to have come back from a season ending torn rotator cuff that limited him to two (bad) starts last season. He’s a lefty with a lot of major league experience, and he knows how to pitch in the majors. I’m not wild about Narveson, and in most other rotations, I believe he’d be the No. 5 starter at best, but we’ll get there in a minute.

Realistically, Roenicke and pitching coach Rick Kranitz are going to keep Narveson on a very, very short least, especially to start the season. Five inning outings, and any sign of trouble will result in Narveson being pulled and evaluated. Narveson doesn’t have any pitches that blow you away, and his fastball only touches 90 once every blue moon, but he mixes his pitches well, and even with his lack of knockout pitches, he still does a good job of striking batters out, owning a career K/9 of 7.4 (compared to Lohse’s 5.6). The fact that he’s done well this spring and is a left handed pitcher gives him the upper-edge over the other guys vying for the last two spots in the rotation. You can expect a so-so year from Narveson as long as he stays healthy. Around 160 or so innings, an ERA in the mid-4′s… you know the drill with Narveson. Nothing that will astonish you (except on the occasional night when he looks like an ace), but nothing that will repulse you.

5. Wily Peralta AND Mike Fiers

Okay, okay. I know. One spot, two pitchers. But think about it… does platooning the fifth spot not make at least a little sense? Mike Fiers clearly showed us last year that he is more than capable of pitching in the majors, and was, at one point, the most un-hittable man on the mound in the country. Peralta is a young fireballer who saw success in his limited time as a Brewer last season. Both are ready to start in the majors (even if their spring training numbers haven’t been great), and both are good enough to earn this fifth spot. After the top three, the Brewers are going to be doing a lot of mixing and matching, so why not start the season out with a six-man rotation, having Fiers and Peralta start once every 10 days each, with some bullpen time inbetween to keep their arms active? It’s an experiment worth trying when you’re looking at two candidates both deserving of the job.

If the powers that be in Milwaukee decide it has to be one or the other (which they probably will), I’d have to say they’re going to give Peralta the job, but have Fiers on speed dial ready to make a run like he did last year in place of an ineffective or an injured pitcher. Giving the nod to Peralta is because of his upper-90s fastball and devastating slider… two pitches that are just too good to pass up, and even though his spring numbers aren’t much to look at, I think he’s going to be just fine if he’s given the opportunity.

The rest of it. 

Mark Rogers is out of minor league options and to say that he has underperformed this Spring is an understatement. He’s suffering from a case of “dead arm” right now, lowering his velocity and greatly limiting his control. He’s confident this will blow over and he’ll be ready to contribute to the team. But when… well, if this happens, what role will Rogers serve? Tom Gorzelanny is the long reliever, and Melvin already made plenty of upgrades in what was the the worst bullpen in the majors from last year.

Rogers is going to start the season as a middle relief pitcher, probably getting a few long relief appearances if Gorzelanny is seeing too much action in too short of a time. There’s no way the Brewers risk placing him on waivers to go to the minors, because any number of teams would scoop him up in a heartbeat, and there goes a fifth overall draft pick with seemingly unlimited, but still unrealized potential. If this dead arm phase passes, and Rogers starts to perform, what happens to the rotation? What about Tyler Thornburg and Johnny Hellweg, both sent to AAA Nashville, but both nearly ready to make it in the bigs?

A lot of people are saying this rotation lacks depth, but I’d argue that they’re suffering from a bit too much, though that’s not really a bad problem, given the fact that any number of these pitchers could be injured at any point (knock on wood).

I love the addition of Lohse. Without him, the rotation is too young and too volatile. I think he’s going to perform well in Milwaukee, and I think the comparisons to Jeff Suppan are pretty outlandish.

If nothing else, with the addition of Lohse, the Brewers’ top three starters combine to make a formidable punch, and the bottom of the rotation (along with the outsiders looking in) contain massive upside. This is not a rotation to be overlooked.

If you didn’t have a dog in the WBC fight, you probably will now.

But outside of being able to cheer on your favorite Milwaukee Brewers stars, the temporary exodus of talent has obvious ramifications for the team that they leave behind.

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One of the best starters in baseball last year statistically.

Spearheaded a rotation that has made deep playoff runs two years in a row, including a World Series championship.

Two consecutive seasons of statistical mastery, and a fairly expansive repertoire with ever improving control.

2012 statline: 16-3 (league leading .842 W-L%), 2.86 ERA, 211 IP, 143 K, 1.090 WHIP, 3.76 K/BB

All of these things lead one to believe that every major league team would be drooling at getting that pitcher off the market for a price that is dropping every day now that spring training has began. Those are ace-like numbers, and still, the owner of that statline, Kyle Lohse, remains unsigned at the time of writing this article (2/19/13).

Why? Well, there are a couple of reasons, but I’ll discuss the two big ones. First, and probably foremost is the fact that he is represented by Scott Boras, the uber-agent who forces teams to sell their souls and their firstborn chil… I mean, spend a lot of money and commit to a lot of years on contracts for the players he represents.

I won’t beat around the bush. I hate Scott Boras. I think what he’s doing to baseball is damaging the sport on the same level as steroid-usage and the fallout it created in the 90′s and early 2000′s. Boras oversells his clients, teams are forced to sell the farm and their left legs to get a decent player, and then they’re stuck for a decade and 200 million dollars with a player who will, inevitably, stop producing at a level worthy of such high pay.

Why do I hate this? It kills smaller clubs. Teams like… well… the Milwaukee Brewers can’t compete with that level of spending, and many teams lose their best players to mega-teams like the New York Yankees, the Los Angeles Angels, the Boston Red Sox, and a few choice others.

Let’s just say baseball needs a salary cap, and you can blame Scott Boras for that.

But, in Kyle Lohse’s case, it doesn’t seem that Boras is really doing a great job of selling his client. Naturally, Boras asked for an outrageous amount of money and a long-term deal for Lohse, who is already 34 and has had only two good seasons in the majors, a couple of average-to-mediocre seasons, and a bunch of bad ones.

So, count Boras and his overzealous method of selling clients as a negative for Lohse. Also, count draft pick compensation against Lohse. Signing him means giving up the team’s first round draft pick… in Milwaukee’s case, that would be the 17th overall pick, and a mid-first round pick is nothing to shake off. There is some legitimate talent coming into this draft, and the Brewers (as well as every other team in the majors, obviously) are turned off by the fact that they have to give up that first round pick for a pitcher that may or may not be worth it.

Lohse has seen a decrease in his velocity all across his repertoire. His fastball has dropped a few clicks, and now sits around 90 MPH. Not too bad, considering he has gained control with the decrease in velocity, but the question has to be asked: Is his arm getting tired, or did he just sacrifice velocity for control?

If you look at sabermetrics, you won’t be able to sort much out either. All indications are that he had two great seasons, and that they weren’t flukes. In fact, his career FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching—think of it as a more comprehensive version of ERA) is a few clicks lower than his traditional ERA… his ERA standing at a career 4.45, while his FIP is at 4.34, indicating that, on the whole over his career, he is slightly better than what surface statistics tell us.

Sure, he’s not a strikeout pitcher. A measly career K/9 of 5.6 is not a lot to look at. But he does a great job of getting ground ball outs, last season getting 40.5 percent of batters to ground out. The rest of the rotation is more than capable of having K/9s of over 9.0, so it might be good to have a contact guy come in every fifth day to throw off opposing teams.

What does this mean for the Milwaukee Brewers?

Well, before spring training had started and I was sure Lohse would find a home before pitchers and catchers reporting, I made it known that I didn’t think they should sign him. In fact, in a post regarding Marco Estrada, I flat out said that the Brewers shouldn’t go after Lohse.

But if the price drops (which it is every day), and if the Brewers can sign him to a two-year deal with a third year team or mutual option, my mind has changed. They should go for it.

Look, I love that the Brewers are going young this season. I love that young arms are getting a chance to start. But really, really think about it. If injuries hit this team like they did last year, there is simply not enough depth to cover the losses. Without Lohse, we are looking at a minimum of two “prospects” to be in the rotation, and one mediocre veteran starter (Chris Narveson) who is just getting out of a season ending rotator cuff injury.

Sure, the battle for the rotation is interesting. You have Mike Fiers, Chris Narveson, Wily Peralta, Mark Rogers, and even Tyler Thornburg all vying for a spot to start. But seriously, what if Rogers and/or Narveson re-injure themselves? What if Fiers pitches like he did in September, when he earned an ERA of 7.09, instead of June/July, when he had a 1.83 ERA? What if Peralta and/or Thornburg just aren’t ready?

There is so much talent in the list of people I just gave you, and all can start, but some of them just flat out aren’t ready, or are very high-risk commitments.

At the very least, Lohse gives the Brewers veteran stability to go behind Yovani Gallardo and Marco Estrada. He might not be a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher like last year, but with his good command, good pitch selection, postseason experience, and what appears to be increased productivity, it’s time to seriously evaluate him as a risk worth taking.

Do I really want it? Do I really want the Brewers to give up that 17th pick? No, I don’t. I wish they would have re-signed Shaun Marcum or gone after guys like Dan Haren or Brandon McCarthy instead.

But when you really sit back and look at it, it’s a bigger risk not to sign him. The youth of this rotation might flourish, or they might be last season’s bullpen and completely sink the team.

It is also worth noting that Lohse has seven years of service on two different NL Central teams, spending two years with the Cincinnati Reds and five with the St. Louis Cardinals. He knows his way around the division, as well as the National League, where he has spent most of career.

Boras is becoming desperate to find Lohse a home, and I’m sure Lohse is just ready to find a place to pitch for the spring. Jim Bowden has predicted the Brewers or the Texas Rangers as the most likely landing spots for Lohse, and the more footage I watch, and the more I worry about starting depth, the more signing Lohse makes sense to me.

Doug Melvin and Gord Ash know that Scott Boras is sweating over getting his client signed. They have dealt with him before, and they know better than any reporter or critic about what’s going on in his mind, but my gut tells me that Boras is in a hole and he needs someone to pull him out. The Brewers should be that team.

Only time will tell, but time is running out, and it’s time for the Brewers, Boras, and Lohse to make their decisions. Here’s to hoping it’s the right one, and that Lohse can perform like he has with the Cardinals the past two seasons.

My biggest problem is the cynicism in fans and pundits that don’t think it’s going to be enough.

Why not?

Sure, there’s been some more controversy within the Brewers camp this offseason, most recently involving a certain superstar player and a certain PED clinic.

I am, of course, talking about Ryan Braun’s name being included in a report concerning Biogenesis and their administration of performance enhancing drugs (PEDs) to certain MLB players.

It should be noted, before delving into why the Brewers will, in fact, win the NL Central, that Braun has come forward and admitted his involvement with Biogenesis. In a recent report, Braun stated that Biogenesis was a company of interest in a research endeavor in his successful PED appeal last offseason.

It is also worth noting that Braun’s name has not been connected at all to any PEDs administered by Biogenesis, and that the MLB, though wanting to take a strict hand to Braun, is going to need more than a name drop for what seems to be a legitimate explanation for an unfortunate snafu.

But let’s talk about what’s really important… the Brewers and their chances of winning the NL Central crown for the second time in three years.

Norichika Aoki is a major wild card for this Brewers team.

If you’re reading this, there’s a good chance I don’t really have to explain the efficiency of this offense. It was one of the best in baseball last year, and driven by big bats like Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez, Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks, and even wild cards like Carlos Gomez, Norichika Aoki, Jonathan Lucroy, and Jean Segura, this is an offense to be feared.

Speed? They have it. Braun has back-to-back seasons in which he has stolen 30 or more bases. Gomez nearly reached 40 last season (37), Norichika Aoki tallied another 30, and Jean Segura, though only stealing 7 bases with Milwaukee last season, is one of the fastest players on this team. Segura swiped 50 bases in 2010 in the Los Angeles Angels’ farm system.

How about Power? Well, you have that too. Without going into great detail, all positions on the field have pop. Braun, Ramirez, Hart, and hopefully a fully recovered Weeks are the obvious sluggers. Add into that Carlos Gomez, who slugged a career high 19 homers last season, Lucroy, who has serious pop at catcher, Aoki, who hit a surprising 10 homers last season, and the only position really lacking in that department is Segura at shortstop, but even back-up Alex Gonzalez is capable of slugging a few deep ones.

The starting rotation is high-risk, high-reward. The only truly known starters are Yovani Gallardo, who is on the verge of becoming a true ace, and Marco Estrada, who is, quite surprisingly, right there with him. Behind those two, you have Mike Fiers, who was the best pitcher in the majors for a couple of months last season, Wily Peralta, who proved he can succeed in the majors during his productive call-up, Chris Narveson, who will be hoping to prove himself after essentially missing the entire 2012 campaign with a torn rotator cuff, and Mark Rogers, the formerly hyped major league prospect, turned bust, turned… well… we’re not really sure yet. But he did a great job in his call-up as well, and without any minor league options left, Rogers will at least be in the bullpen.

The revamped bullpen, featuring Tom Gorzelanny (also a capable starter), lefty specialist Michael Gonzalez, sinkerballer Burke Badenhop, a former major league standout in Kelvim Escobar, and Michael Olmstead, a steal from the Boston Red Sox organization will all be vying for spots on a bullpen that has plenty of open spots and immeasurable room for improvement over last season.

You’re likely looking at Tom Gorzelanny and Mark Rogers as spot starters and long relievers, Burke Badenhop and Michael Gonzalez being middle relievers, with Gonzalez especially being utilized against lefties. The three returnees from last year’s bullpen will likely maintain their roles—Brandon Kintzler will be a middle reliever, Jim Henderson the set-up man, and John Axford the closer. Escobar and Olmstead will almost definitely be beginning the season in the minors, but could quite possibly working their way up to the majors before long.

You add in all of those low-value, high-production players with Alex Gonzalez, who the Brewers signed for infield depth at a massive bargain, and I don’t see the reason to fret.

When you look at this team, there is a lot to be afraid of if you’re not a Brewers fan. It’s an offense that could potentially be the best in the majors. The bullpen is vastly improved. The above additions to go along with returning pen members Jim Henderson, Brandon Kintzler, and John Axford, all capable of throwing into the high-90′s, and all capable of great things.

The only real question mark is starting pitching… beyond Gallardo and Estrada, it’s all question marks and inexperience. But the talent is there in abundance, and essentially every facet of this team is underrated.

They didn’t make any big signings this offseason. They could have gone big for Josh Hamilton or Zack Greinke, but they did the smart thing and made bang-for-your-buck moves to improve the areas that needed drastic improvement.

The Brewers didn’t make the playoffs for one reason last year—their bullpen. And that bullpen has been essentially completely revamped. Not much else has changed for the Brewers, and if they can avoid injuries in abundance (unlike last season), and if the young talent can prove to be major league ready, this is a dangerous team.

One that can earn a wild card berth… or even win the NL Central.

Clearly Gallardo has been a constant cog for this rotation, but in the eyes of the MLB, he’s never been slated as a true “ace”. With a career ERA of 3.63, we can see that Gallardo is an ace inside the NL Central, but in the entirety of the MLB, he’s a great pitcher, but not quite an ace yet. Despite that though, he’s been a fan favorite and is someone who definitely needs to stay in the rotation.  (more…)

Recently, Reviewing the Brew’s very own Colin Bennett released his N.L. Central predictions. You can find them here. He has the Brewers finishing third, behind the annoyingly silly chirping St. Louis Cardinals and the choke artists of last year’s postseason, the Cincinnati Reds. I agree with Mr. Bennett but not without reservations. Milwaukee will have to fight tooth and nail to avoid sitting alongside the miserable Chicago Cubs in the cellar…and nobody wants that.

Ryan Braun won’t be enough for the Brewers to contend in 2013. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

You may ask why I’m being such a Debbie Downer but the truth is, I’m not. The Brewers made three noteworthy moves in the offseason by acquiring Burke Badenhop and signing Tom Gorzelanny and Michael Gonzalez. That’s it. Do you really think those acquistions are enough to skyrocket the Crew into first place? Not a chance. Hell, the Cubs had a better offseason than the Brewers.

The improved bullpen adresses the team’s most blantant problem from a year ago, but it’s not fixed; there’s a difference between the two. Great bullpens have an absolute stud that goes out, takes over a game, and completely shuts the opposing team down. I ask you, who’s that stud reliever for Milwaukee? It was John Axford in 2011 but everyone knows the story of 2012. The Reds had Aroldis Chapman (who’s now a starter) and the Cardinals had a plethora of ridiculously good relievers. The Brewers have none.

Wasn’t one of Doug Melvin’s top priorities this winter to sign a veteran starting pitcher? What happened to that train of thought? What happened was that the Brewers were unwilling to ink a free agent to a deal longer than two years. When that became apparent, free agents turned a cold shoulder and pursued teams who could dim the dollar signs in their eyes. Frankly, the Brewers didn’t have the money and, as a result, the starting rotation is going to suffer. And by suffer I don’t mean pitch a couple of bad games here and there. I’m talking about total disaster.

Yovani Gallardo may be the Brewers ace, but he’s not one of the top pitchers in baseball. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Yovani Gallardo is not a true bonafide ace. Granted, he is the Brewers top dog but he is nowhere near elite. In the five seasons in which he has made at least 17 starts, Gallardo has never posted an ERA under 3.50. That’s impressive for a No. 2 or 3 starter, but not for a so-called “ace”.

While Marco Estrada and Wily Peralta will occasionally show flashes of brilliance, neither of them will have memorable seasons. Estrada gives up home runs like Santa gives out presents; there are just so many. Peralta, just named the Brewers top prospect, is still a year away from figuring out the big leagues. I know he garnered attention while posting a 2.88 era in six appearances (five starts) last season but I’m calling that beginner’s luck. However, watch out for him in 2014.

Milwaukee’s offense won’t be an issue. Unless Aramis Ramirez starts showing signs of old age or Mat Gamel is a horrific replacement of Corey Hart, the bats will be fine. Ryan Braun can’t go down with a season-ending injury, though. That would destroy any shred of hope.

With all my negative talk and gloomy expectations, I have probably made some of you think I despise the Brewers. But I promise that I love them and would give both my kidneys to see them reach the postseason this year. Sadly, that’s not what the future has in store for Ron’s Wrecking Crew but I shall have my fingers crossed nonetheless.

What are your predictions for the upcoming season? Do you believe the Brewers can compete? Leave comments and questions below! Follow Justin and @ReviewngTheBrew on Twitter. Be sure to like us on Facebook, too.

This edition brings in the Milwaukee Brewers pitcher who had the best overall season in 2012. Away we go.

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