NL Central 2012 Preview: Looking Far(ther) Ahead

Well, it’s that time of year again. Pitchers and catchers are reporting and the whole state of Wisconsin is in that gross position somewhere between winter and spring and it makes me wish everything would just hurry the hell up and get to baseball season.

With that in mind, it’s time for my second annual report on the state of the NL Central months before these kinds of things become relevant. This addition is just full of new features, so feel free to use them in your debates or to shower praise/ridicule on me for the remainder of the year.

Without further ado – I present to you the Official Reviewing the Brew NL Central Breakdown. All teams appear in the predicted order of the 2012 standings.

6. Houston Astros

2011 Results: 56-106 (6th, Missed playoffs)

Key Losses:

RF Hunter Pence (trade)

CF Michael Bourn (trade)

2B Jeff Keppinger (trade)

Key Pickups

SS Jed Lowrie

SP Zach Duke

RF Jack Cust

The poor ‘Stros. Maybe 2013 will treat them better in the AL. The Houston Astros 2011 campaign was fraught with peril, but the Astro faithful had eyes on the horizon with a slew of young talent that was getting national attention despite (or in spite of) the team’s dismal overall performance.  But, in a not-at-all shocking turn of events the productive core of the team was sold away in mid-season, either to be merciful to Bourn, Pence, and Keppinger or because this is a team that is legitimately afraid of success. It was a promising team and the future looks bright for the farm system moving ahead, just don’t expect much from this team until after the all-star break at the earliest.

In 2012, the team is moving in a different direction. I won’t say it’s going down because, well, it can’t go any further south. And as you know, there is no such thing as retreat – you simply advance in a different direction. Houston is putting a lot of faith in the pick-up of Jed Lowrie from Boston – a highly touted prospect at one time who has not yet shown the breadth of his talent in the Majors. Pitchers Kyle Weiland and Zach Duke will be fighting for spots in the rotation all season. Jack Cust was brought on to give veteran help off the bench. Time will tell if the moves Houston made – small as they may be – are going to pan out this season, or if the team is simply cutting its losses in the Senior Circuit and looking to greener pastures.

2011 at-a-glance:

Batting Average – .258, 10th in MLB, 5th in NL

OBP – .311, 23rd in MLB, 11th in NL

SLG – .374, 24th in MLB, 13th in NL

OPS – .684, 24th in MLB, 13th in NL

ERA – 4.51, 28th in MLB, 16th in NL

Look for most of these numbers to stay about the same going into 2012. The team filled some of the holes left by their trades and free agency losses, but a lot of it is patchwork with younger and/or unproven talent. There are a few prospects on the pitching depth chart that may get a shot at the end of the year, but it will have little to no impact in my mind. A sad swan song for the 6th team in the NL Central.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates

2011 Results: 72-90 (4th, Missed Playoffs)

Key Losses

1B Derrek Lee

P Paul Maholm

LF Ryan Ludwick

C Ryan Doumit

Key Pickups

P AJ Burnett

3B Casey McGehee

SS Clint Barmes

Look out, America – Pittsburgh just might be on the verge of becoming a baseball town again. Not since the days of We are Family have the fans of the Pirates had so much to be excited about. They have one of the most exciting players in the game, and now a slew of talent acquired in the off-season to try to make a serious push (no, seriously) at a division title in the near future. It’s very strange to see Pittsburgh on the receiving end of free agency deals.

There are a few matters of concern, however, that will keep them in the bottom half of the division for 2012. Number one is the loss of their .300 hitting catcher to the Minnesota Twins, replaced by the 250 year-old backstop Rod Barajas. The veteran catcher will be nice in terms of working with a pitching staff that still has adjustments to make, but how you let go of that kind of production is beyond me. Casey McGehee’s journey to Steeltown is one that Brewers fans will be keeping an eye on. After a brilliant two years in 2009 and ’10, he bottomed out with a .223 average and the most disappointing season of his career in 2011. There are no guarantees left for Casey any more, and this might be his last shot and sticking around in The Show. There’s reason to be hopeful about him in Pittsburgh because they’ve seen what he can do, but that hope must be swallowed with a hefty dose of skepticism.

Then there is AJ Burnett, who will never be the pitcher he once was – but is just hoping to pitch well again. He had his best years in the NL, and there’s reason to believe that a ground ball pitcher from the AL East can do well in the NL Central (See: Shaun Marcum).

2011 At-a-glance

Batting Average – .244 23rd in MLB, 12th in NL

OBP – .309, 24th in MLB, 12th in NL

SLG – .368 27th in MLB, 15th in NL

OPS – .676, 26th in MLB, 14th in NL

ERA – 4.04, 17th in MLB, 11th in NL

Looking at those numbers, it’s hard to believe that they could finish anywhere above last place. But pick-ups like Clint Barmes are going to help the team get on base more and McCutchens will continue to improve. The key to it all is pitching – the pirates were able to manage games well last year from the mound and defensively which allowed them to stay close in a lot of contests. I don’t think they’re going to break through this year, but 2012 is going to be an important year in bringing the Pirates back to the discussion in the NL Central.

3. St. Louis Cardinals

 2011 Results: 90-72 (2nd, Clinched Wild Card, Won World Series)

Key Losses

1B Albert Pujols

2B Nick Punto

Key Pickups

RF Carlos Beltran

P Scott Linebrink

If ever a team could show us how important a manager is to an organization’s success, it’s the 2012 St. Louis Cardinals. Tony LaRussa is off to greener pastures, and with him leaves an era of unrivaled success in the Gateway to the West. (By consequence, the rash of unfair play against the Cardinals that has dominated the NL Central will likely come to a close as well.) So the only real question about the Cardinals has to be:

Can Mike Matheny bring the Cardinals back to the World Series?

Short answer: no. The reasons being two fold: First off, the baseball season is long, arduous, and built to frustrate and disappoint baseball teams and fans alike. Secondly, Albert Pujols is gone. I know that one man does not a team make, but if ever it could that team would be called the Albert Pujolses. There is no question that the offense will suffer for the loss of the Machine. Beltran was an amazing pickup by the Cards and he will play well, but the rest of the lineup has questions as well. Will Holliday be back to 100%, or is the wrist injury a harbinger of future struggles at the plate? Both John Jay and David Freese have played brilliantly in their young careers, but can they continue their success into the future? Will Lance Berkman finally be too old and gooey to play effectively, even with the added benefit of a move to first base? Will Wainwright be back to his old form?

These are the things you have to ask yourself as a defending champion. And in looking at the numbers, St. Louis hit a perfect storm of players having great years at the same time. Lohse and Westbrook both put up some of the best numbers of their career last year and Garcia has proven that he can lead a rotation if needed. The problem will be staying power, and a lot of that comes from a manager being able to smooth out kinks when things aren’t working well, and keeping players focused when they are. It’s just impossible to tell if Matheny is up to that task.

2011 At-a-glance

Batting Average – .273 5th in MLB, 1st in NL

OBP – .341 3rd in MLB, 1st in NL

SLG – .425 6th in MLB, 2nd in NL

OPS – .766 5th in MLB, 1st in NL

ERA – 3.74 12th in MLB, 8th in NL

How these numbers will sway after Pujols is gone remains to be seen, but these numbers are certainly aided in part by one of the greatest runs to the playoffs any organization has – or likely will – see in the history of the game. I think St. Louis will do well again, but how well they will do in a wide-open division is up in the air. The division is no longer the Cardinals’ to lose, regardless of how well they did last year.

2. Cincinnati Reds

2011 Results: 79-83 (3rd, Missed Playoffs)

Key Losses

P Francisco Cordero

SS Edgar Renteria (Still in FA)

C Ramon Hernandez

Key Pickups

P Mat Latos

LF Ryan Ludwick

SS Wilson Valdez

P Ryan Madson

Cincinnati is somewhere between rebuilding and reloading. Their core producers on offense, namely Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips, are still together and they picked up some key pieces both on the bench and in the starting lineup. Shortstop Wilson Valdez is a potent bat and a handy glove to keep the left side of the infield in order, and Ryan Ludwick should add some pop off the bench as they are likely going to platoon him in the outfield. The big story, however, is the conversion of flamethrower Aroldis Chapman into the starting rotation. It’s a story baseball outlets have been covering for years, and it’s finally coming to fruition. There is some speculation about the amount of gas in his tank and whether or not his other pitches can compliment his blistering fastball as well over the course of a game, but only time will tell how this one will pan out.

Perhaps the bigger story about the Reds this year is what they lost. Cordero has become a Blue Jay and Cincy is starting the year without a dominant closer. In 2011, they were 29-33 in one-run games, and every bit of those 29 wins were thanks (at least in part) to CoCo’s pitching prowess. To fill the enormous gap left by Cordero, the Reds acquired Ryan Madson from the Phillies, who chalked up 32 saves last year in 34 opportunities. Inconsistencies have plagued Madson throughout his career, and opponents have racked up a .268 average against him, so there is some reason for Reds fans to be concerned, though not much. Ramon Hernandez is another departure through free agency which leaves a big hole in a backstop rotation that has been blessed with consistent production. Ryan Hanigan takes over as the number one catcher and he’s performed well but has never played more than 90 games. His current backup has played only 18 games in the Majors, and accumulated a paltry .180 average in that time. For the most part, however, it would appear that Cincinnati has put itself in prime position to take control of the NL Central once again.

2011 At-a-glance

Batting Average – .256 14th in MLB, 8th in NL

OBP – .326 9th in MLB, 4th in NL

SLG – .408 12th in MLB, 5th in NL

OPS – .734 10th in MLB, 5th in NL

ERA – 4.16 20th in MLB, 12th in NL

Where Cincy’s offense dominated last year, their defense and pitching let them down in enormous fashion. It’s going to be up to the rotation and the bullpen to lift the Reds into the top of the division, and the reason they aren’t number one is because I’m not sure the Reds pitchers are up to the task. It’s asking a lot to make Chapman a starter and it will take a while for him to settle in. The starting rotation has added another piece in Latos, but up and down the 6-man rotation it looks like a microcosm of each individual player – moments of brilliance sullied by inconsistent performances. I think Cincy and St. Louis will battle for the two and three spot, but neither will have a chance to catch up with a division crown.

1. Milwaukee Brewers

2011 Results: 96-66 (1st, Won Division, Lost in NLCS)

Key Losses

1B Prince Fielder

P Takashi Saito

P LaTroy Hawkins

IF Jerry Hairston, Jr.

Key Pickups

LF Norichika Aoki

3B Aramis Ramirez

SS Alex Gonzalez

P Jose Veras

With the exception of St. Louis, no team has rebuilt itself better for another playoff run like Milwaukee has in the NL Central. The Brewers lost Prince Fielder, so they picked up the Cubs’ biggest power hitter and a certified Japanese superstar. The middle relief was decimated by the loss of veterans Hawkins and Saito, so they pick up a gem in Jose Veras from the McGehee trade and a very intriguing reliever in Junan Perez from Philadelphia. Hairston’s absence left a gap in the infield, which was promptly replaced by the talents of Alex Gonzalez. With the pitching staff staying largely intact and totally healthy (for now), on paper the choice was obvious for Milwaukee to repeat as the Central’s champion.

The only lingering question is that of reigning MVP Ryan Braun’s status during his double-secret probation hearings. The proceedings are over, and now I imagine a bunch of MLB big wigs are sitting on large leather chairs, sipping brandy and smoking cigars while they discuss the fate of the Brewers left fielder. Word from unnamed sources around MLB, the Brewers, Ryan Braun, ESPN, Fox Sports, and God knows where else have all said it looks like Brauny is in the clear – but who knows. Until then, we need to look to Aoki as our man in Left for the time being. There are more questions in the outfield surrounding Gomez, Hart and Morgan. Nyjer was a big part of the team last year and an unquestioned catalyst when it came to the team’s energy. Can he keep his antics on the positive side in ’12? Can Hart play well with consistency? It’s something he needs to do desperately in order to keep his spot now. Will Gomez be able to perform off the bench?

Lastly, the first base issue is going to become very important in the next few weeks. Gamel is getting his shot, and he can’t afford to blow it – but that’s just beating a dead horse. Giving him competition this year is Travis Ishikawa, a former Giant who was out of the league last year but performed well up until then. If Ron Roenicke can keep this team on track like he did last year, none of these questions will be a problem in a few month’s time.

2011 At-a-glance

Batting Average – .261 8th in MLB, 3rd in NL

OBP -.325 10th in MLB, 5th in NL

SLG – .425 5th in MLB, 1st in NL

OPS – .750 6th in MLB, 2nd in NL

ERA – 3.63, 9th in MLB, 7th in NL

I’d like to take this moment to say, just like last year, that I am NOT picking Milwaukee to finish first for any other reason than on paper, they seem like the best team to take THIS division THIS year. The pitching staff is healthy and in their prime (for now) and they are still anchored by the best 8-9 inning tandem in the Majors. And, until someone beats them, they are still the division champs. Bask in that glory for a little while longer Brewers fans, because in a few weeks it’s back to square one.

OK boys and girls, now’s the time where you get to tell me how you think the division is going to stack up.