Setting the Milwaukee Brewers Lineup

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Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

The Brewers offense as it stands today is very reminiscent of the one they fielded in 2014. Seven of their eight primary starters look to return for 2015, with the obvious exception being the departure of Mark Reynolds, replaced by newcomer Adam Lind.

The main offensive differences will come off of the bench, where the Brewers two most frequent pinch hitters, Rickie Weeks (.373 OBP) and Lyle Overbay (.425), have departed, but I think the order of the starting lineup could use a change or two as well.

During the season, I polled the RtB staff about who they felt should lead off for the Brewers. Among writers, it went 4-2 in favor of Scooter Gennett hitting first, and Carlos Gomez hitting second (against RHP). I have a sort of beef with my poll.

In hindsight, the real question should have been simply “who should lead off?”, not “which should hit first and which should hit second?” The poll should have allowed Gomez to slot in as the cleanup hitter, where I (and Kyle) now feel he is best suited against righties.

So I figured I’d structure my ideal starting lineups for the Crew versus righties and lefties based on their current roster.

VS. RHP

1. 2B Scooter Gennett

2014 slash vs. RHP .307/.338/.464

Gennett is a high-average hitter that doesn’t walk much, but he’s still a great leadoff candidate against righties. His career slash line against them is .323/.355/.490, very attractive numbers for the top of the order. Scooter is questionable as an everyday player, but there’s been no doubt of his abilities in a platoon.

2. C Jonathan Lucroy

2014 slash vs. RHP .300/.372/.465

Originally I had Ryan Braun slated here, because I think he could begin there coming off of his down year and thumb surgery. I do however think that both Braun and Lucroy will regress toward their career averages, leaving Braun as the better hitter.

Last year Lucroy walked almost as much as he struck out, control that is paramount when hitting near the top of the order. Lucroy is also one of the team’s best hitters, and the two-hole is sometimes considered the most important spot in the offense.

3. RF Ryan Braun

2014 slash vs. RHP .262/.329/.431

More traditionally, the three-hole is where managers slot their best hitter, as it requires both a hitter who can get on base for the four and five hitters as well as a guy that can knock in the teammates that come before him.

As I said, I expect Braun to bounce back in 2015, and he doesn’t need to repeat his 2011 season to be a valuable number 3 hitter.

4. CF Carlos Gomez

2014 slash vs. RHP .291/.357/.478

Gomez and Braun could be similar offensive players in 2015, as both should hit between 20-25 home runs and .800-.840 OPS. As such, the two could be roughly interchangeable as the cleanup and 3 hole hitters, but Braun seems to dislike the 4 hole, and has posted a .668 OPS from there over his career.

Gomez is a good run producer and some of his talents are wasted as a leadoff hitter. His basestealing abilities will also play well in front of doubles hitters.

5. 1B Adam Lind

2014 slash vs. RHP .354/.409/.533

Each of the last two seasons, veteran Adam Lind has posted an OPS over .900 against righties. There is a question about what sort of power the Brewers should expect after he hit just 6 home runs in 318 PA in 2014, but he will be an immense step up from the first basemen the Brewers used from 2012-2013.

Even if he is more of a doubles hitter that can spray the ball, those abilities will play up in front of baserunner extraordinaire Carlos Gomez. If his power returns, Lind will make an even better 5 hitter, and will likely knock in a lot of Brewers.

6. 3B Aramis Ramirez

2014 slash vs. RHP .275/.310/.377

I don’t hide the fact that I generally find batting average to be a grossly over-appreciated statistic. Generally a player who hits .270/.300/.400 is no more valuable than one who hits .200/.300/.400.

When hitting after two guys that are above average at reaching second base, however, Ramirez’s ability to hit for average means he’ll be hitting in his teammates. Ramirez did have his lowest ISO (SLG – BA) ever in a full season, as he hit a lot of singles.

I expect his extra base hits to increase over last year’s down performance, and if he regresses toward his mean, he’ll be a big doubles hitter like Lind.

7. LF Khris Davis

2014 slash vs. RHP .239/.298/.451

Khris Davis isn’t a base stealer. He doesn’t hit for a high average. He has a weak arm, even for left field. He is an average defender in left. These factors cause Davis to be underestimated, and a large portion of Brewers fans would be perfectly content using him as a trade piece.

Davis can easily be a 2-win player, though, and young, cheap hitters worth 2 wins aren’t as easy to come by as fans seem to think. Davis has big-time power, and should walk more often in 2015 than he did last season. I’ll defend him further in a later article, found here.

Davis has plenty of pop, and he’s way overqualified as a 7 hitter.

8. SS Jean Segura

2014 slash vs. RHP .263/.293/.350

Jean Segura had a very rough season, both on the field and off of it. Projecting to 2015, I believe Segura splits the difference between his outstanding 2013 and his dismal 2014. That would be a .272/.310/.378 line. This is more than acceptable for an defensively talented young shortstop.

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Brewers have both players that dominate lefties and players who should avoid facing them at all costs. This of course means the lineup is going to undergo some changes.

It has been pointed out that the NL Central has relatively few lefty starting pitchers, so if changing spots in the lineup really disrupts hitters, at least it won’t happen too often. I feel that professional hitters should be able to handle minor changes in the lineup.

Of course players and managers have a better feel for the disruptive nature of changing lineups, but if the players aren’t opposed to the idea, I think this lineup makes the most sense on paper.

VS. LHP

1. CF Carlos Gomez

2014 slash vs. LHP .258/.352/.476

Right after saying Gomez’s talents are wasted as a leadoff man, I name him my leadoff man against lefties. If there was a better choice, I would have chosen it, but Gomez is the only hitter that fits the bill against lefties. He gets on base, and he’s a great base stealer, and he’s experienced as a leadoff guy.

2. C Jonathan Lucroy

2014 slash vs. LHP .304/.374/.464

Lucroy’s splits were remarkably similar in 2014, finishing exactly 1 OPS point higher against lefties. This is particularly surprising given the huge spread in his career splits, where he owns an .887 OPS against lefties and a .746 OPS versus righties.

In fact, particularly prior to 2014, much of his success as a hitter was buoyed by his outstanding play against lefties. It would be better for the team if Lucroy could maintain his new level of balance, but either way he’ll be a major contributor against southpaws.

3. RF Ryan Braun

2014 slash vs. LHP .279/.309/.514

Braun’s career OPS against lefties is over 1.000. He’s the obvious cleanup man here.

4. 3B Aramis Ramirez

2014 slash vs. LHP .327/.400/.624

As disappointing as A-Ram was against righties in 2014 is as good as he was versus lefties. He hit 8 home runs against lefties in less than a third of the PA it took him to hit 7 home runs against righties.

Ramirez’s career OPS against southpaws is just north of .900, and he and Braun should feast on them in 2015.

5. LF Khris Davis

2014 slash vs. LHP .258/.301/.476

Davis is clearly a strong hitter against lefties, and even those who think he should platoon with Gerardo Parra recognize this. He is the type of hitter that projects for a lot of team-friendly statistics from the 5 hole, like home runs and RBI.

6. 1B Luis Jimenez/ Jason Rogers

Jimenez: 2014 AAA/MLB slash vs. LHP .282/.312/.519

Rogers: 2014 AA/AAA/MLB slash vs. LHP .295/.367/.439

I was comfortable with Jason Rogers filling the bench position of corner infielder for 2015, but the Brewers brought in an additional body, meaning they likely were not. Still, we may not know who the Brewers favor until after Spring Training, so I’ll leave my options available.

Both hitters have performed well against lefties in the minor leagues, as most righty batters will. I find it reasonable to project at least a .700 OPS versus southpaws from either of them, well above the career OPS of Adam Lind (.588).

7. SS Jean Segura

2014 slash vs. LHP .182/.274/.236

Segura was bad against lefties in 2014. He was bad in general, but he was worse against lefties, which is atypical for right-handed batters. He did slash .317/.358/.507 against them in 2013, and like I mentioned before, I suspect his true abilities lie somewhere between those extremes.

8. Scooter Gennett

2014 slash vs. LHP .103/.125/.128

If the Brewers insist on playing Gennett against lefties in 2015, I expect they let him do so from the bottom of the lineup. Plenty has been made of Gennett’s (in)ability against southpaws, and I think he will end up no more than well below average against them.

Plenty of full-time lefties are worse against southpaws, but there is a limit to what a team must deem acceptable. Teams try to make everyday hitters out of platoon guys all the time, leaving players like Matt Adams and Lucas Duda wasting lineup spots.

There is no shame in being a platoon guy, particularly when you post such outstanding numbers against righties, who are the majority of pitchers anyway. It will be interesting (read: frustrating) to watch Gennett face lefties, which still appears to be the plan.

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