MLB Draft: Crap Shoot or Sweet Science?

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Mar 3, 2014; Phoenix, AZ, USA; A scout uses a radar gun during spring training between the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs at Maryvale Baseball Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

With Spring Training 2015 just a few weeks away, major league teams and their fans eagerly look forward to scoping out young prospects, hoping that one of them might become the next Clayton Kershaw or Mike Trout.

Teams might open the season with a couple rookies on the big club’s twenty-five man roster, but for the most part, many of these players will never set foot in a big league stadium unless they have a ticket.

The annual June Amateur Draft was established in 1965, when the Kansas City Athletics chose Arizona State outfielder Rick Monday with the first-ever pick.

Since then, approximately 45,000 players have been plucked out of high schools or colleges, with their drafting teams hoping to strike gold with a majority of their selections.

Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.

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Crap shoot or science?

Between the years of 1990 and 2005, 465 players were selected by major league organizations in the first round of the June Amateur Draft.

Of those ballplayers, 335 of them have spent at least one day in the major leagues, with over forty percent of them achieving various degrees of stardom.

In those years, the Milwaukee Brewers chose 17 players (eight position players and nine pitchers), of which 11 made it to the bigs. The Brewers 65% ‘success rate’ paled in comparison to the major league average of 72%, but matched or exceeded ten other teams. Percentage-wise, the best drafting team as far as advancing players to The Show was Toronto (17 of 18); the Yankees–not surprisingly–were the worst (7 of 15).

Much of the credit (or blame) falls on the shoulders of the Scouting Director, who usually has the final say in the drafting process.

The Brewers had four scouting directors from 1990-2005: Dick Foster (90-91), Al Goldis (92), Ken Califano (93-99), and John A. (Jack) Zduriencik (2000-08).

Foster and Goldis failed to advance a combined three players to the bigs, but the last two names on the list above had much more success.

Califano saw six of his eight first-round picks make it to the bigs, including pitchers Jeff D’Amico (93) and Ben Sheets (99), and slugging outfielder/Brett Favre-lookalike Geoff Jenkins (95).

Zduriencik drafted six first-rounders from 2000-05, and five of them played in the majors, notable among them Prince Fielder (02), Rickie Weeks (03) and Ryan Braun (05).

Jack left his scouting director position after the 2008 season to assume the role of general manager for the Seattle Mariners.

Bruce Seid took over the scouting position in 2009 for Milwaukee and held it until his untimely death in September 2014.

What does it take to become a good judge of baseball talent?

The Major League Scouting Bureau puts on a 12-day course designed to teach the ins and outs of baseball scouting, but the good ones have been at it for many years.

Here’s a short list of the attributes that scouts must be able to figure out to determine if a player is a suspect or prospect:

Pitcher’s mechanics
Pitcher’s control and command
Pitch repertoire
Hitter’s bat speed
Batting stance/stride
Swing type
Mental makeup
Soft hands
Fielder’s throwing arm action
Athleticism
‘Five Tools’ (Hitting, hitting for power, fielding, running. throwing)

Once you have that all figured out, you can hop in your car and drive all over God’s Creation in order to find that one player that will become a big league superstar.

Good luck.

A Brief History of the Milwaukee Brewers Drafts (1990-2005)

2005
Ryan Braun, 3B, University of Miami (#5). Enough said.

2004
Mark Rogers, RHP, Mount Ararat (ME) School (#5). Rogers pitched in 11 big league games, thanks to various injuries.
Could Have Picked: Jered Weaver, P (#12), Stephen Drew, SS (#15), Gio Gonzalez, LHP (#38).

2003
Rickie Weeks, 2B, Southern University (#2). Weeks has had an up-and-down career with Milwaukee, one that is most likely finished.
Could Have Picked: Nick Markakis, OF (#7), John Danks, P (#9), Aaron Hill, SS (#13), Adam Jones, OF (#37).

2002
Prince Fielder, 1B, Eau Gallie (FL) HS (#7). All in all, a pretty good pick.

2001
Mike Jones, RHP, Thunderbird (AZ) HS (#12). Never made it to the bigs, injury-prone. Out of baseball after 2010.
Could Have Picked: David Wright, 3B (#38).

2000
David Krynzel, OF, Green Valley (NV) HS, (#11). A solid defender in CF and a decent base-stealer, Krynzel couldn’t hit enough to stick in the bigs.
Could Have Picked: Chase Utley, 2B (#15), Adam Wainwright, RHP (#29).

1999
Ben Sheets, RHP, St. Amant (LA) HS, (#10). Sheets was the Brewers best starter for most of the 2000s.

1998
J.M. Gold, RHP, Toms River (NJ) North HS, (#13). See Mark Rogers and Mike Jones.
Could Have Picked: C.C. Sabathia, LHP (#20), Aaron Rowand, OF (#35).

1997
Kyle Peterson, RHP, Stanford University, (#13). Appeared in 20 games at the big league level, including 14 starts.
Could Have Picked: Lance Berkman, 1B (#16), Adam Kennedy, SS (#20), Jayson Werth, OF (#22).

1996
Chad Green, OF, University of Kentucky, (#8). See David Krynzel. (Besides, do ya think anyone with the middle name ‘Elton’ would become a rough, tough baseball player?)
Could Have Picked: Mark Kotsay, OF (#9), Eric Chavez, 3B (#10).

1995
Geoff Jenkins, OF, USC, (#9). The popular Jenkins had a great career in Milwaukee, hitting 212 home runs in ten years.

1994
Antone Williamson, 3B, Arizona State, (#4). A decent minor league hitter, he was only able to hit .204 in 54 big league at-bats.
Could Have Picked: Nomar Garciaparra, SS (#12), Paul Konerko, C-1B (#13), Jason Varitek, C (#14).

1993
Jeff D’Amico, RHP, Northeast (FL) HS, (#23) and Kelly Wunsch, LHP, Texas A&M, (#26). Both had decent big league careers, with D’Amico winning 45 games and Wunsch pitching 257 times in the bigs.

1992
Kenny Felder, OF, Florida State, (#12). Felder was a big, fast flychaser that never hit enough to advance to the bigs.
Could Have Picked: Shannon Stewart, OF (#19), Rick Helling, RHP (#22), Jason Kendall, C (#23), Charles Johnson, C (#28), Johnny Damon, OF (#35).

1991
Ken Henderson, RHP, Ringgold (GA) HS, (#5) and Tyrone Hill, LHP, Yucaipa (CA) HS, (#15). Neither made it beyond ‘A’ ball as a Brewer.
Could Have Picked: Manny Ramirez, OF (#13), Cliff Floyd, 1B-OF (#14), Shawn Green, OF (#16), Aaron Sele, RHP (#23).

1990
No first round pick.

Granted, Hindsight is 20/20, But…

Looking at the list of ‘Could Have Picked’ from the distant year 2015 makes you wonder: What were they thinking? But the science of baseball scouting doesn’t always work out. And sometimes, late-round picks go on to have fine careers.

Outfielder Nate McLouth, picked in the 25th round of the 2000 draft, has played over 1,000 big league games.

Infielder Damion Easley was selected in the 30th round in 1988 and played over 1,700 games in The Show.

On the other end of the spectrum, you have Matt Bush (2004), Brien Taylor (1991), and Steve Chilcott (1966). All three were #1 overall and never spent a day in the bigs. It just goes to show, you never know.

So, do you still want to be a big league scout?

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