Milwaukee Brewers: 2016 Outlook

Outfielders

We are beginning with the Outfielders because that is by far the most crowded place in Miller Park right now. The position remains remarkably similar to how it was in 2015, but there are a few lingering question marks (from my point of view anyway).

Assuming that Ryan Braun is healthy expect to see plenty of him in Right Field, FanGraphs has him with the biggest WAR in RF at 2.0. The only other person predicted with a positive WAR is Domingo Santa (this is for RF before you blast me) at 0.1. With Shane Peterson DFA’d after the Liriano trade we could see Liriano there (who doesn’t have an MLB WAR prediction on Fangraphs), after all, Liriano has to make the 40 Man Roster or will be DFA’d himself.

Left Field will primarily be Khris Davis, who like Braun has by far the best WAR of his position, at 1.3. One interesting candidate for LF though would be Keon Braxton, who the Brewers acquired in a trade that sent Jason Rogers to the Pirates. Broxton hasn’t received much attention outside of Pittsburgh and when he was briefly promoted to PNC Park, it had people outside of Pittsburgh scratching their heads. Braxton was originally drafted in the third round in 2009 by the Dbacks. Many saw that he had strength and athleticism but still needed to close up some holes in his swing and fielding abilities.

Early on his was touted as promising but the results were mixed, hitting .228/.3.16/.360 in 2010. He managed to draw 65 walks and steal 21 times. In 2012, he tapped into that talent that many saw hitting .267/.326/.437 with 19 homers and 21 steals though it was evident his plate discipline still presented issues (40 walks, 135 SOs). He then followed that with a poor year in 2013 and was shipped to Pittsburgh.

Braxton can be one of the best athletes on the Diamond, but he is still vulnerable to strikeouts and hasn’t batted .300 over a broad sample. But his power and speed have value and he can provide quality glove work. I wouldn’t be surprised if he manages to further refine his skills and finds his way into Miller Park this season.

Domingo Santana provides the best WAR in Center Field at 1.6, and Shane Peterson is expected to provide a WAR of 0.2 (which was the next best) but as he was DFA’d I wouldn’t expect to see him very much (if at all) in Miller Park

Conclusion: Outfield is pretty crowded in Miller Park, but there are plenty of options to go with and given there’s plenty of room for competition I’d expect it to be exciting out there.

Next: Next: The Catchers

The Catchers

As it stands our catchers have the biggest question mark, with The Brewers trying to shop away Lucroy and Lucroy admitting he wants to play for a contender. As well at Brewers on Deck Braun iterated that he talked to Lucroy and let him know that attitude doesn’t fly, so spring training may get interesting with those two.

Martin Maldonado is Lucroy’s backup and unless Lucroy is traded away, Lucroy will be the primary catcher behind home plate. Despite Lucroy’s desire to play for a contender if Stearns doesn’t trade him away Lucroy will play to the best of his ability this season (it only makes his stock rise, so it’d be unwise of him to do otherwise).

Conclusion: FanGraphs has Lucroy providing a WAR of 2.5 (defensively) and a WAR of 2.6 offensively. He by far has the best combined WAR on the Brewers and until he goes somewhere else this season he’ll be the best tool for the Brewers (assuming FanGraphs is correct that he’ll have the best WAR on the team).

Next: Next: The Infielders

The Infielders

With the recent shipping of Segura to Arizona for Aaron Hill, Hill will platoon over Gennett who had a miserable start to 2015 and was sent back to the minors for few weeks.  Hill has been battling some injuries over the last couple years but with the Brewers, he has the perfect chance to rebuild and serve as a mentor for the younger players.

Stearns has confirmed that Jonathan Villar will start at SS and that Orlando Arcia will start the season with Triple-A Colorado Springs but I wouldn’t be surprised if this year is the year Arcia ends up in Miller Park for good.

The Brewers picked up Chris Carter putting an end to the cliché question “Who’s on First?” and Carter will hopefully excel in a hitter-friendly Miller Park. Third will be Will Middlebrooks and it seems like third is the weakest infield position as Middlebrooks has a projected WAR of just 0.2

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• Brewers Making Colossal Mistake With Corbin Burnes’ Contract
• Which Players May Be In The Final Month Of Their Brewers Careers?
• Brewers: Where Does Devin Williams Stand In NL Reliever Of The Year Race?

Conclusion: Having Carter, Hill and Villar in the infield should provide the Brewers with anywhere from 4-8 wins better that what the infield provided last season.

Next: Next: The Starting Pitchers

Starting Pitchers

The Brewers starting core wasn’t all that great last year let’s face it. But there are plenty of young pitchers in there and veterans like Matt Garza should provide mentoring that our young pitchers need. I expect Nelson to be the “Ace” (Milwaukee hasn’t had a true ace since Grienke, Gallardo showed flashes of it, but then sputtered for a bit), with Peralta the number two. Garza, I expect will sit at number three and to have a bounce back year, over a pretty down last year next year.

FanGraphs has Nelson providing a WAR of 2.4 and an FIP of 4.04, Peralta with 1.6/4.36 and Garza 1.4/4.47. Posting numbers like that (in my opinion) would provide a much better year in 2016 than 2015.

The Brewers didn’t make any acquisitions that would change the starting lineup so I’d expect the starting lineup to try and improve from last year and help the rebuilding process that is happening in Milwaukee.

Conclusion: Look for Garza to have the bounce back year and really I expect the starting rotation to perform better than it did last year.

Next: Next: The Relief Pitchers

Relief Pitchers

Despite sending K-Rod to the Motor City over the winter, the bullpen is by far the Brewers greatest strength. It’s chocked full of hard-throwing, precision throwing talent. Will Smith leads the bullpen and since coming to the Brewers has been one of the most dominant strikeout pitchers in baseball. He posts a 12.39 K/9 and a 32.2% K rate. As a member of the Brewers, he has posted a 3.21 ERA and 2.87 FIP over 129 innings, with one save and fifty holds.

Smith leads a strong bullpen and one that has shown it can hold its own with anyone in baseball. Jeremey Jeffress, Michael Blazek, and Corey Knebel will provide solid relief work alongside Smith.

Conclusion: With Will Smith being arbitration eligible in the winter don’t be too surprised if he’s traded away for some prospects, need not worry though there are still plenty of solid bullpen options for the Brewers.

Given the moves that Stearns has been making I am quite optimistic for the rebuilding process as a whole. Stearns has already said that he wants to take a short rebuild time than both the Astros and Cubs, who took five years to get where they were.

More from Reviewing the Brew

• Brewers: 4 Players Who Must Step Up for the Crew to Make the Playoffs
• Brewers: Yet Another Huge Promotion For Top Prospect Jackson Chourio
• Brewers Making Colossal Mistake With Corbin Burnes’ Contract
• Which Players May Be In The Final Month Of Their Brewers Careers?
• Brewers: Where Does Devin Williams Stand In NL Reliever Of The Year Race?

Realistically if the Brewers find themselves performing at the level of the Cubs and the Astros I would have no problem waiting five years.

It also makes me optimistic for the seasons to come but I’ll believe it when I see it. I’m a man of science, not faith.