Brewers 2016: Taylor Jungmann

Taylor Jungmann had a strong performance in his rookie campaign that saw Jungmann sputter to finish out the season. Jungmann was a first-round draft in 2011 and joined the Brewers last season after spending time with the Triple-A Nashville Sounders of the Pacific Coast League and his start to the season showed plenty of promise. Jungmann struggled in the second half, but still posted solid numbers in the season. Is Jungmann the real deal or did he just find himself in a stroke of luck for most of the last season?

2015 Production 

First, let’s look at his 2015 numbers: Jungmann posted a 3.77 ERA with a 9-8 record in 21 starts. He rolled through most of the season with a 2.48 ERA but posted a 7.85 ERA in the last month of the season. In his first month, he posted a 2.5 BB/9, but that rate only rose, going to 3.3 in July, 3.8 in August and finally 4.7 in September. Septemeber was a pretty dismal season for Jungmann, who also posted an HR/9 rate of 2.5 in that month.  Based solely on the numbers, Jungmann debuted on fire, after that his production dropped, and so did his numbers.

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2016 Projections

FanGraphs Steamer projects Jungmann to go 6-9 while posting an ERA of 4.67 in 120 IP while a line of 7.69(K/9),  3.90(BB/9), 1.11 (HR/9). Jungmann’s projected numbers are more in the realm of what people have expected him to put up. His red hot start last season was something that almost no one expected. The 2.48 ERA was unexpected if you look at the numbers he put up in the minors. In the High-A Florida League (which is known to be pitcher friendly) Jungmann put up a higher than average K-9 rate and then in Double-A Ball (another pitcher-friendly league-the Southern League) he put up an 83/72 (K/BB) ratio. He showed improvement in Triple-A ball posting a 3.98 ERA and striking out a batter per inning over 101.2 IP with the Nashville Sounders. Going back to the projections, Steamer gives a realistic outlook of Taylor Jungmann, who will probably be a back-end starter going forward for the Brewers.