Chris Mitchell released an in-depth KATOH analysis of the Brewers prospects over at FanGraphs today. Mitchell noted that the Brewers farm system topped his KATOH projections, “largely due to their recent rebuilding efforts.”. Mitchell grouped the prospects into three groups. 1. “those who are forecast for two or more wins through their first six major-league seasons” (WAR), 2. “those who receive a projection between 1.o and 2.o WAR through their first six seasons”, and finally 3. “any residual players who received Future Value (FV) grades of 45 or higher from Dan.”. Mitchell only took in account players who had a least 200 PA appearances last season, so the projections are missing some prospects in the organization.
Note*: A Dan Grade is the rating of Brewers prospects as determined by Dan Farnsworth at FanGraphs.
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Here is a quick run-down of the top ten prospects as ranked by the KATOH projections:
- In what is little to no surprise KATOH ranks Arcia as the top prospect in the organization with a projected WAR of 14.0 and a Dan Grade of 60 FV.
- Ramon Flores comes in at number two with a KaATOH expected WAR of 7.4 almost half of the projected WAR of Arcia with a Dan Grade of “Cistulli’s Guy”.
- Coming in at number three is the likely replacement of Jonathan Lucroy, Jacob Nottingham with a KATOH projected WAR of 6.8 and a Dan Grade of 40 FV.
- Brett Phillips clocks in at number four with a KATOH expected WAR of 5.2 and a Dan Grade of 55 FV.
- Up next is LHP Josh Fader, who KATOH projects to have a 4.8 WAR and is given a Dan Grade of 50 FV.
- SS Isan Diaz comes in at six with a KATOH projection WAR of 3.5 and a Dan Grade of 45+ WAR
- In the seven slot is RHP Zach Davies, who KATOH projects to have a 3.5 WAR and has a Dan Grade of 45+ FV.
- Javier Betancourt is 8 with a KATOH expected WAR of 3.5 and a Dan Grade of 35+.
- In the nine hole is Clint Coulter with a KATOH expected WAR of 3.5 and a Dan Grade of 40+.
- Rounding out the top ten is Michael Reed with a KATOH expected WAR of 3.0 and a Dan Grade of 55 FV.
The top group of KATOH’s projections (a WAR of 2+ over the first six major-league seasons) consists of fifteen prospects in the Brewers system. Slinging Dave still has moves to make given Lucroy, Smith, and Garza are still on the roster, solidifying the idea that the Brewers farm system strength will only grow over the coming years.