Milwaukee Brewers: More Pressure on Colin Walsh?

GM David Stearns and the Milwaukee Brewers have stuck with Rule 5 draft pick Colin Walsh thus far, but could an unheralded prospect make Walsh’s roster spot that much less safe?

Colin Walsh is having an interesting season. Just one player in baseball is swinging less often than he is (min. 60 PA). He is swinging at less than half of the pitches he sees in the strike zone, and just under one-third of the pitches, he sees overall.

On its own, this is not a negative. In fact, two players with comparable numbers in those areas, Joe Mauer, and Brett Gardner, have both been above-average offensively this season.

The problem is Colin’s other numbers. He’s striking out over 35% of the time, hitting .085 with one extra-base hit in 47 at-bats, and he’s sporting a .160 BABIP. His batting average on balls in play is undoubtedly unlucky, but Walsh’s strikeout and power numbers have not been promising.

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And at least his K’s could have been foreseen. As a 25-year-old in AA ball in 2015, Walsh should have been elite. And while he posted an enticing slash (.302/.447/.470), he struck out far too often (21.2%) for a player of his age in Double-A.

Enter another 26 year old, Nathan Orf, who began his 2016 season in AA. Like Walsh, Orf primarily plays second and third base, and like Walsh, Orf posts solid walk rates. The major difference here is Orf’s strikeout totals. As an admittedly old man by AA standards, Orf slashed .268/.440/.304 in 75 PA to start the 2016 season with a strikeout rate just above 10%.

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Naturally, Orf was promoted after that showing, and in his first 81 plate appearances with AAA Colorado Springs, the utilityman has remained solidly above-average, slashing .329/.413/.443 with an 11.1% K rate.

Along with his excellent on-base ability, Orf’s value is heightened by his ability to play the corner outfield positions, where he has logged over 450 minor league innings, and his baserunning, though he isn’t much of a base stealer.

Orf was also a catcher in college, and could serve as an emergency backup there.

Clearly, the Milwaukee Brewers under David Stearns have given Walsh and his on-base ability a long leash.

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And in a rebuilding year, it makes sense for an organization to be absolutely sure it isn’t missing out on a valuable player, but at some point, without improvement, Walsh will overstay his welcome. And in that event, the door should be open for Orf, who is similarly versatile, similarly plate disciplined, and less strikeout prone.