Only time will tell which Milwaukee Brewers draft pick was the best, but KATOH projections is a big fan of pick #82.
It’s always difficult to judge which and who had the best MLB draft picks, but FanGraphs’ KATOH has always been a pretty good resource. For those unfamiliar, Chris Mitchell, came up with the methodology and wrote about it over at The Hardball Times a few years ago.
First, high school players are left out as simply it’d be difficult to judge their development. So, looking first at OF Corey Ray, the Milwaukee Brewers #5 draft pick, KATOH projects he’ll have a 1.2 WAR by the age of 27. Not all that impressive, but Mitchell makes sure to tell readers they will be low and use the numbers to compare them to others.
But, when you look at picks #2 Nick Senzel IF (CIN) and #6 A.J. Puk LHP (Oak), Ray simply doesn’t level up to them. Senzel has a 2.0 WAR and Puk has a 2.3 WAR. Not the most encouraging projection, but it helps when you hear MLB draft writers like Keith Law say the Milwaukee Brewers got the best pick.
Fortunately, KATOH is a big fan of RHP Braden Webb taken at the #82 spot by the Milwaukee Brewers as it projects him with a 3.3 WAR thru age 27. That’s the 2nd highest on the rankings only to #314 pick RHP Dakota Mekkes taken by the Chicago Cubs. A pitcher many were surprised he fell that far down.
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But, first, who is RHP Braden Webb?
21 yrs old
6’2” 195 lbs
University of South Carolina
Positives: KATOH loves his high strikeout rate during his one year at SC as he had a 11.66 K/9. His fastball can get up to 95-96 and has a 12-6 curveball.
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Negatives: Webb had Tommy John surgery back in 2014 during his senior year of high school. His BB/9 is also something to watch for as it 4.38, so he can lose control at times.
Like any pitcher taken out of the MLB draft, injury during his development is always something to watch for and even more so after Tommy John surgery, but certainly impressive that Webb has been able to rebound. As many sites questioned before the draft, will he be mid-rotation material or a reliever?
Only time will tell if he can’t find a third pitch, but good nonetheless when you get high remarks before you’ve even made your way up the minor league system. While not quite officially signed yet, he certainly seems to be excited to be part of the Milwaukee Brewers organization.