SS Orlando Arcia is in his early days with the Milwaukee Brewers, so all sorts of projections are coming in, so who does he compare to most?
Before the season began, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections came out and made sure to include the likes of Clint Coulter, Tyrone Taylor, and Victor Roache, even though it was unlucky they’d get called up all season. But, just in case, they’re on the list.
Much like the Milwaukee Brewers on the list, Arcia also was on and was projected to have a 2.3 zWAR in 579 ABs. Of course, many didn’t expect Jonathan Villar to have the season he’s had as he was projected to have 496 ABs with a 1.0 zWAR, so that may have delayed Arcia’s call up.
But, nonetheless, he was called up a month before the typical September call-ups to get minor league players the experience against big league players. A few days ago FanGraphs’ Chris Mitchell did an article to project the SS in the upcoming years.
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KATOH was a big fan of the young infielder as they projected him for a 7.2 WAR. (Don’t mind seeing a certain new teammate above at 7.7) While KATOH is nice to see how the prospects will turn out in the upcoming years, it doesn’t necessarily tell you just what type of players they’ll be like.
The Mahalanobis does just that and threw out 10 names that measured up to Arcia. The big names are easy to point out as at the top of the list is Alcides Escobar and as you go further down at #5 is Dustin Pedroia. Of course it’s never perfect as Escobar was 0.91 off and Pedroia’s was 2.91, but not bad.
The Escobar comparison does make sense as Arcia’s defense seems to be something that will keep him on the field even when he struggles offensively as we’ve continually seen highlights in the minor leagues. KATOH seems to give him chances to be pretty solid at least.
From the article:
"KATOH gives him a 68% chance of logging at least 4 WAR over his first six seasons, and a 38% chance of logging at least 10 WAR."
Only time will tell, but it’s exciting nonetheless when all the hype of a player finally makes it onto the big stage.