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2. Orlando Arcia’s progression vs. expectations
The Milwaukee Brewers have a habit of overhyping a player until he can no longer live up to expectations. Yovani Gallardo was meant to be the next ace of the Brewers, so when he turned out just good, fans were critical. The same thing happened to Rickie Weeks, who was never given much credit for his productive career in Milwaukee.
Orlando Arcia was hyped for over a year as the next big thing for the Brewers. It wasn’t just fluff from the front office or local media, but a widespread love of his potential.
The problem is, while he’s just 22, Arcia may never be more than average with the bat.
Arcia’s defensive prowess is unquestionable, but I think it’s unlikely we see an OPS north of .720 out of him by 2020. Still, a version of Arcia who consistently slashes .260/.305/.400 is likely a 3-win player thanks to his glove.
For reference, Steamer projects Arcia to slash .245/.291/.377 with 12 home runs next year, to the tune of just a 0.5 WAR. So be patient and don’t forget; Arcia is over a decade younger than Ryan Braun, so he’s got time to develop.