Milwaukee Brewers: Five Major Storylines for 2017

The Milwaukee Brewers won’t win it all in 2017, but they have more than a few intriguing storylines to watch for.

For this list, I’ll be sticking with the Big League club. There are countless storylines to watch in the farm system for the Milwaukee Brewers; too many to cover here.

5. Boom-or-bust outfielders

The non-Ryan Braun members of the outfield have a crucial task ahead of them for 2017: prove yourselves. Keon Broxton and Domingo Santana have both flashed promising tools, but each retains significant questions about their long term abilities.

For starters, both were excellent after the All-Star Break. Santana slashed .280/.344/.508 after returning to the team in August, through to the season’s end. Broxton was even better, slashing .294/.399/.538 from late July through mid-September when he broke his wrist.

FanGraphs released an article last week discussing both players’ similar strengths and weaknesses, and I’d recommend giving it a read. In it, Eno Sarris analyzes their ability to hit the ball hard, but also their poor contact rates.

In order to stick as a full-time starter with the Milwaukee Brewers, Santana will have to prove he can hit same-handed pitching in 2017.

Santana’s biggest questions–outside of contact–are his platoon splits and his defense. In his short, 486 plate appearance career, Santana owns a .888 OPS versus lefties and a .690 OPS versus righties.

To stick as a full-time starter with the Milwaukee Brewers, Santana will have to prove he can hit same-handed pitching in 2017.

At the same time, Santana must improve over his defensive showing in 2016. When he first joined the Brewers in 2015, Santana was seen as a preferable alternative to former Brewer Khris Davis, who had a similar offensive profile but was a lesser defender and five years older.

And while Santana’s arm is unquestionably better, his fielding was very poor in 2016. This came as a shock to many after Santana was good enough to spot-start in center field in 2015.

While he was understandably overmatched in center, he should be able to handle right and needs to be better than in 2016, or he’ll go to pieces as he ages.

4. What if the bullpen is actually good?

The Milwaukee Brewers lost three outstanding relievers last year. They traded Will Smith, Jeremy Jeffress, and Tyler Thornburg, all of whom carry reputations as excellent late-inning relievers.

Enter Neftali Feliz, Corey Knebel, Jacob Barnes, and Carlos Torres. Not the most household batch of names, but bear with me.

Feliz, after years of dipping velocity, jumped his fastball back up to almost 97 MPH on average in 2016. This is near the velocity he was pumping out when he snagged AL Rookie of the Year honors in 2010, after a 2.73 ERA, 40 save season.

Meanwhile, Feliz’s slider velocity jumped to its highest ever, over 85 MPH on average. As a result, he struck out 10.2 batters per 9 innings, the highest rate of his career since a shortened 2009 campaign.

FIP still didn’t like him (4.52), but his career ERA sits 60 points below his FIP (career .243 BABIP allowed), so he clearly induces weak contact. As long as Feliz’s velocity has returned for good, he could easily match his ERA from a year ago (3.52). He has 99 career saves, with a 3.31 ERA in save situations.

Feliz, after years of dipping velocity, jumped his fastball back up to almost 97 MPH on average in 2016.

FIP likes Knebel’s solid 107:36 career K:BB ratio (91 2/3 innings pitched).

Unfortunately, the big righty has a .322 BABIP against him over his career, which hopefully regresses toward .300 as he gets more innings under his belt.

While Knebel’s curveball isn’t dominant (11.53 whiff rate is just below league average), his fastball earns almost 30% more swings and misses than the average four-seamer. Above-average play may not be enough to lock down a closer’s role long-term, but Knebel could carve out a career as a setup man. To maximize his value, his walk rate will have to drop closer to his 2015 rate (3.0 BB per 9 IP) than 2016 (4.41).

Jacob Barnes throws two pitches, and both blew past batters in 2016. He owns a fastball that touches the high-90s and sits comfortably at 95. His slider averages over 89 MPH, well over the Major League average. Barnes’ slider caused opponents to swing and miss nearly 30% of the time, roughly equal to former Brewer Will Smith’s career mark, who was known in Milwaukee for his #SliderOfDeath.

Barnes posted a 2.70 ERA (2.36 FIP) in 26 2/3 innings in 2016, while fanning 26 and walking just six. If his power/command combination continues, he’s a very real candidate to close out games, potentially even this season.

Carlos Torres had a career year with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2016 at age 33. The journeyman leaned heavily on his cutter last year, allowing just a .226 opponent average with the pitch. And while his FIP (3.75) was less sterling than his ERA (2.73), he was an anchor in the ‘pen. Torres’ cutter gives him the effectiveness against lefties (.364 career SLG allowed) that many righty pitchers strive for.

3. How does the rotation shake out?

The Milwaukee Brewers have at least seven pitchers vying for their 2017 starting rotation. And while Tommy Milone could be an easy bump (swingman?), the remaining six all surpassed 100 innings pitched and 19 starts in 2016. The only sure things are Zach Davies and Junior Guerra, leaving Matt Garza, Wily Peralta, Jimmy Nelson, and Chase Anderson (and Milone) fighting for three positions.

Anderson (5.44 ERA), Garza (5.54 ERA), and Peralta (6.68 ERA) all had dismal first halves while showing promise after the All-Star Break (2.83, 4.16, 2.92 respectively).

The Brewers could go with a six-man rotation, but that is neither a probable option, nor a particularly attractive one.

Nelson got lucky in the first half (3.62 ERA, 4.78 FIP), and the wheels fell off in the second (6.10 ERA, 5.62 FIP).

Meanwhile, Milone started 12 games with the Twins, allowing a 5.46 ERA and a .308 opponent batting average in those starts.

So who gets cut, traded, or sent to the bullpen? Milone, for starters. But then the Brewers have three players who had good second halves in Anderson, Peralta, and Garza, with the latter in line to receive $12.5 million in 2017. And finally, they have Nelson, who has perhaps the most promise of the bunch but also had the worst season.

The Brewers could go with a six-man rotation, but that is neither a probable option nor a particularly attractive one. It requires flexibility from each of the involved starters and puts stress on a shorthanded bullpen (or shortened bench).

The popular theory has either Peralta or Nelson moving to the bullpen, where I believe either would excel.

2. Orlando Arcia’s progression vs. expectations

The Milwaukee Brewers have a habit of overhyping a player until he can no longer live up to expectations. Yovani Gallardo was meant to be the next ace of the Brewers, so when he turned out just good, fans were critical. The same thing happened to Rickie Weeks, who was never given much credit for his productive career in Milwaukee.

Orlando Arcia was hyped for over a year as the next big thing for the Brewers. It wasn’t just fluff from the front office or local media, but a widespread love of his potential.

The problem is, while he’s just 22, Arcia may never be more than average with the bat.

Arcia’s defensive prowess is unquestionable, but I think it’s unlikely we see an OPS north of .720 out of him by 2020. Still, a version of Arcia who consistently slashes .260/.305/.400 is likely a 3-win player thanks to his glove.

For reference, Steamer projects Arcia to slash .245/.291/.377 with 12 home runs next year, to the tune of just a 0.5 WAR. So be patient and don’t forget; Arcia is over a decade younger than Ryan Braun, so he’s got time to develop.