Milwaukee Brewers: Writers react to the mid season prospect rankings

Earlier this week, MLB pipeline released their mid season top 30 prospect list for the Milwaukee Brewers and other teams. Along with this was the top 100 overall prospects in baseball.

The top 30 for the Milwaukee Brewers can be found by clicking here. The top 100 here.

Here at Reviewing the Brew, we had a lot of thoughts about the makeup of these lists.  As always there were surprises and things that were assumed. Lewis Brinson was destined to be the number one prospect, just to name an example.

Accuracy of these lists is tough enough for the writers at MLB pipeline. There have been top prospects drop off the table seemingly out of nowhere. In recent memory for the Milwaukee Brewers, Tyrone Taylor is an example.

Even top prospects across all of the MLB have failed to this point in their careers. To this point Jurickson Profar and Byron Buxton are still searching for their top potential. Although it may still come.

The fact that these lists are so open for interpretation and discussion are half the fun of them. All of the debate is at the heart of why baseball is so great.

Highlights of the overall list include the amazing wheeling and dealing of MLB talent by the Chicago White Sox.  That are all over the  list.  Led by Yoan Moncada as a not surprising number one in the league.

Perhaps the biggest change for the Milwaukee Brewers is the graduation of Josh Hader from prospect status.  The former top left handed pitching prospect has found a great deal of success in a Brewers uniform.

Between surprise success and disappointing slides, prospects have a tough life.  Every game has the potential to raise their ceiling and their trade value. Playing under a microscope can be unnerving for anyone. But that type of pressure is what separates future major leaguers from career minor leaguers.

Five writers at Reviewing the Brew decided we wanted to put our reactions and feelings to the list out there.  So here it is. A compilation of our thoughts and reactions to MLB pipelines prospect lists. Enjoy.

David Gasper’s reaction

The new prospect lists are out just in time for the Trade Deadline and there have been plenty of changes in the Milwaukee Brewers rankings. In the pre-season rankings, the Brewers had five of the top 100 prospects in baseball. They now have six of them, but the prospects have changed.

Lewis Brinson and Corey Ray are still the top two even though Ray has fallen about 40 spots in the new rankings. Josh Hader has graduated from prospect status and is no longer on the list. Luis Ortiz has fallen from the 50s to #83 despite putting together a solid season. Brandon Woodruff has now joined the list at #96 followed immediately by first round pick Keston Hiura at #97. Isan Diaz has taken the last spot at #100.

The biggest riser who I felt was snubbed from this top 100 list is Corbin Burnes. He was ranked as the 20^th best prospect in the Milwaukee Brewers system at the beginning of the season, but due to his performance this season, he’s jumped to the seventh best in our system.

He’s pitched to an ERA that’s hovered around 1.00 in two levels! He did it in High-A ball and now he’s doing it in Double-A. Success like that should garner inclusion in the top 100. Burnes has certainly been the highest performing prospect Milwaukee has this year and the scouts that help determine these lists are probably still stuck on their original projections for him coming into the draft last year.

There are eight new names on this top 30 list as eight have fallen off. Hader graduated so the highest rated prospect to fall off the list due to performance is Jorge Lopez, who was at 13. Followed by Gilbert Lara who was just recently demoted from Low-A Wisconsin back to Rookie ball after hitting below .200 this year.

Also, OF Demi Orimoloye, P Nathan Kirby, P Devin Williams, OF Michael Reed, and 3B Chad McClanahan have been removed from the list. Either due to bad performance or injuries, these players are still in the system but are no longer considered top prospects.

When someone falls off, someone new has to take their place and all of the eight new faces in the list are new to the organization. Six are from the draft and Keston Hiura and Tristen Lutz, the top two picks for Milwaukee are in the top 10 (No. five and No. eight, respectively). Also, KJ Harrison (Rd. three), Caden Lemons (Rd. two), Brendan Murphy (Rd. four), and Je’von Ward (Rd. 12) have joined the ranks of the top 30. The Brewers first five picks made the newest list.

Two players from the recent international signing period have been included in the list: outfielders Larry Ernesto (No. 27) and Carlos Rodriguez (No. 29). Those two players are 16 years old! They were born in the year 2000. I’m not old, but that makes me feel old.

What’s interesting in this re-rank is that the Milwaukee Brewers farm system, which has been rated as one of the top five systems in baseball seems to have taken a hit in terms of top level talent. A lot of the prospects have been underperforming of late and the rankings reflect that. Before this update, the Brewers top five prospects were rated in the top 60. Now, there’s only one in the top 60 and that’s Lewis Brinson at #15.

Corey Ray has fallen to #70 and Luis Ortiz has fallen to #83. Woodruff, Hiura, and Diaz are ranked at #96, #97, and #100 respectively. The Brewers rank 19^th in terms of Prospect Points despite being tied for the fourth most prospects in the top 100.

The prospects seem to have underperformed this year for the most part. Just look at their stats, only Brinson, Burnes, and Mauricio Dubon have really performed well for an extended period of time and have been consistently good at each level.

All the others were either coming off of bad years or are having bad years right now. The offensive prospects have really underperformed lately in the minor leagues. These players need to start performing  better if they’ll contribute long-term in Milwaukee.

Trevor Hooth’s reaction

The Milwaukee Brewers top 30 comes with little surprise with who tops the list. Lewis Brinson has huge potential upside. But what could be surprising is Corey Ray at number two.  He has not had a great season, but I am completely on board with the decision for him to remain at two.

When making these lists it is important to truly evaluate the potential value of each guy rather than where they are in the farm system. Despite some struggles this year, I still value Ray very highly.

He may even be better than Brinson when it is all said and done.

One guy who gets talked about a lot among the Reviewing the Brew writers, and has earned his jump to number seven, is Corbin Burnes. He is having a masterful season, and proving his real worth to the ball club.

The Milwaukee Brewers have a very solid farm system.  It is packed with outfielders though. Some will be on the move eventually to help other areas.  They just simply cannot all logistically play. They can be moved to improve the pitching and create a more reliable staff.

A final prospect that has really impressed is Mauricio Dubon. He is tearing the cover off the ball regardless of what level he is playing at. He creates an interesting situation for an already crowded middle infield.

Add Keston Hiura, and things get really fun. Hiura is one that people are low in because of defense. Frankly, while there is a point to be made, it matters if his offense can outshine lack of defense. And so far it looks like it can. Simply stated, good bats find their way into lineups. Hiura will be no different.

John Geiger II’s reaction

Looking at this list really got me thinking. To me, ranking prospects is sort of like ranking movies. It’s all subject to one’s own opinion. After perusing this list though, it seems pretty spot on.

Any list that doesn’t have Yoan Moncada in the top spot cannot be trusted. That guy can flat out play. He will be a superstar for a long time in Chicago.

My two biggest takeaways from this list are the amount of international players at the top and the lack of pitching. The top pitcher doesn’t come in until number 12.

This list shows that baseball is ever evolving into an international sport. This influx of stud international talent has been happening for decades. The first American born players don’t show up until numbers nine and ten.

The other takeaway for me is the lack of pitching. Usually these lists are littered with pitchers in the top 10. Personally, that’s a scary revelation to me. Maybe this group of position players is that good. The cynic in me thinks this is bad for the future of baseball.

That’s enough about other team’s prospects. Let’s talk about what really matters, the Milwaukee Brewers top 30. Wow was I surprised.

Not surprisingly Lewis Brinson is number one. But number two came as a shock to me. Corey Ray is filled with talent. Through the minors he has shown me little to nothing. Sure he has great speed. That only helps in the outfield if you can’t get on base. Didn’t the Brewers just send down Keon Broxton for this reason?

And sorry Keston Hiura. It doesn’t matter to me how well he swings the bat. Until he learns how to get the ball in his glove, his value is virtually non-existent. Milwaukee doesn’t need all bat-no glove players. If they did, they wouldn’t have traded Khris Davis.

Brett Phillips is far too low on this list for me. How is a player who is making an impact at the major league level ranked number 12? He is an impact player already at this point. Great arm and solid in the outfield he will be someone to keep an eye on.

Three of the top 10 Brewers prospects are pitchers. Brandon Woodruff is on the cusp of the big leagues. The other two, maybe a year or two away. Luis Ortiz could be the best of the bunch. Maybe Milwaukee finally figured out how to develop pitching. I sure hope so.

Joe Vanden Avond’s reaction

Prospect lists are tough to judge in real time, both in terms predicting who will make an impact at the next level and how farm systems compare against each other. Look back only five years though and you’ll see why so many folks drool over these lists.

In 2012, to name a few, Francisco Lindor was #14, Carlos Correa was #34, Noah Syndergaard was #83, and Jeurys Familia was #97. While number one overall Jurickson Profar hit a home run in his first Major League at bat in 2012. But he is hitting .172 this season for the Rangers, has only played 206 games in his career and has spent two years out of the league with a shoulder injury. The point is, there are no guarantees.

More interesting to me is the Brewers top 30 list. When released, Brett Phillips was the fourth best Brewers outfield prospect, and he was the one in The Show. It’s a tough task to weigh talent and potential when some of it is Major League ready and some of it isn’t.

Phillips has had some loud moments in the last month, and the struggles of Keon Broxton have opened up a lot of opportunity, but there are only so many spots in the outfield for each Major League squad.

For most of the young men on this prospect list, it’s not a matter of if they’ll be moved, but when. I’m a supporter of a Sonny Gray type move before the deadline (even if we lose a Brett Phillips or Corey Ray in the process) because I believe the Brewers’ window to make their next serious run will be before Ryan Braun’s career with the team ends and Domingo Santana in right.

The best pitching in the game dominated the best hitting in the game at this summer’s All Star Game, and that has been the general trend in the last few exciting playoff runs. The Cubs, Indians, Royals and Mets all had workhorses in their rotations and lights-out relievers. The Giants had Madison Bumgarner.

The Cubs, Indians, Royals, Mets and Giants combine for six players in the Top 100. The Brewers have five. This isn’t the year to do it, but emptying a farm system seems like a small price to pay for a chance at a World Series.

The Milwaukee Brewers offense is good enough to win in the playoffs now. A Gray, Nelson, Hader, Anderson, Davies rotation could get the job done in the coming years if healthy, but the bullpen is what has to seal the deal.

Next: A trip to the farm featuring Jacob Nottingham

Some of those arms may be home grown, but some will need to be acquired. I’m thankful David Stearns is the man with the burden of deciding when that is, because unfortunately, the bullpen in Milwaukee is too many pieces short right now to make the run we’re dreaming of.