Milwaukee Brewers: Complete 2018 Off-Season Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers have four impending free agents this winter: RHP Anthony Swarzak, RHP Matt Garza, INF Eric Sogard, and INF Neil Walker.

Most of these guys had terrific years and will likely get a pay raise this winter. Whether that raise comes from the Brewers or not, remains to be seen.

Impending free agents begin their exclusive negotiation window with their ball club as soon as the World Series is over. That period lasts for five days and on the sixth day after the World Series, players can begin negotiating and signing with other clubs.

None of the Brewers free agents are eligible for qualifying offers this winter.

RHP Anthony Swarzak

Anthony Swarzak just had the best season of his career. At age 32, Swarzak is due for a significant raise this winter. He was tremendous out of the eighth inning since being acquired from the White Sox back in July.

He was on a one year, $900k contract so he was extremely cheap for the Crew this year but that won’t be the same story next year. Swarzak could possibly get a three year deal this winter. Although baseball GMs could be slightly nervous about handing out three years to a reliever who peaked on the wrong side of 30.

The Milwaukee Brewers should absolutely be interested in bringing back their setup man and the feeling reportedly is mutual. Swarzak has bounced around a lot in recent years. He’ll likely want some stability and stay in one place. Don’t be surprised if Swarzak gets eight figures this winter, even on a two-year deal.

Swarzak coming back to Milwaukee on a two year, $12-18 million deal would be beneficial to both sides and sound like a reasonable deal considering the relief market and the quality of his performance. But a three year deal should not be ruled out for David Stearns.

RHP Matt Garza

Matt Garza never achieved much success in Milwaukee after signing in 2014. He seemed to get off to a good start in 2017 in his contract year, hoping to earn another chance but he ended the season with a 4.94 ERA and few innings in September due to a lack of effectiveness.

Garza does not have a club option for next year as previously thought and will be a free agent. The odds of the Brewers resigning Garza are about as good as a snowball’s chance in hell. We’ve seen the last of Garza in a Brewers uniform

Perhaps it’s also the last we’ll see of Garza in a major league uniform as well. He will be 34 next season and doesn’t exactly have a track record of success past the age of 30.

If Garza does decide to play in 2018, he likely won’t get more than a one year deal and the Brewers won’t be that team to give it to him.

INF Eric Sogard

Eric Sogard signed with Milwaukee on a minor league deal last off-season. He had one of the most amazing stretches of baseball in May and June where teams just couldn’t get him out. His average was around .330 and he drew a ton of walks and was the ideal leadoff hitter for Craig Counsell.

The rest of the league definitely took notice though. Sogard may have overachieved this year as his career average is around .240. He will have plenty of options but he might prefer Milwaukee.

So both him and Swarzak are interested in returning. Can’t blame them. But will the Brewers be as receptive to bringing Sogard back next year? He will be 32 next season and the Crew already has a number of middle infield types on the roster and young prospects waiting in the wings.

If he does return, it’s unlikely he’ll get more than a one year deal. Mauricio Dubon is just about ready to take over and Jonathan Villar could get one more chance to repeat his 2016 success.

If Sogard is interested in more than a one year deal, he will likely have to get that somewhere else.

INF Neil Walker

Neil Walker came to Milwaukee during the August waiver trading period and was instrumental in keeping the Brewers in the race down the stretch. He’s another second base type that the Crew might like to keep but it’ll be very difficult to keep both and keeping Walker is difficult by itself.

Walker was given a qualifying offer last winter and played on a $17.2 million contract this year. That’s more than David Stearns will be willing to pay him next year. Plus, Walker will want to test free agent waters.

Read that as: I’m going to leave but I’ll come back if no one pays me. Sounds similar to what CC Sabathia said after 2008 how he liked it here and wouldn’t mind staying but will test the market and left for New York when they threw $180 million at him.

Walker won’t get $180 million but he also won’t be coming back to Milwaukee. He’ll only come back to the Brewers if he doesn’t get any good offers anywhere else. He’ll be gracious to the fans and the team as he hits the market but he has no plans to return.

He’s another 32 year old impending free agent and he could easily command the most money of any of the Brewers free agents. A multi-year deal is not off the table with other franchises but if he comes back, it’ll be a one-year deal only.

Last winter, David Stearns didn’t make many major free agent acquisitions for the Milwaukee Brewers outside of signing first baseman/bearded Hulk/outfielder Eric Thames to a three year deal.

Thames hit .247 with 31 homers and an .875 OPS. Stearns first foray into multi year free agent deals was fairly successful.

But now Stearns is in position to make more of these free agent acquisitions. So who could be joining the Brewers?

Starting pitchers should be the position to look at. Most of the offensive positions have plenty of in-house options but the Milwaukee Brewers found themselves short on starting pitching in September. Also, the bullpen could always add another arm or two.

Jimmy Nelson will miss a chunk of next season and while the size of that chunk still isn’t determined, someone will need to keep that rotation spot warm for him. MLB Trade Rumors has a list of every MLB free agent this winter.

The Brewers do have a couple of prospect options for that rotation. Aaron Wilkerson, Josh Hader, Brandon Woodruff, and Corbin Burnes will all get looks in Spring Training but David Stearns and Craig Counsell might want some more experience in their pitching staff. Who could that be? Here are two options.

RHP Alex Cobb

Cobb has always been a serviceable mid-rotation arm in Tampa Bay. He pitched to a 3.66 ERA in 2017 over 29 starts on a $4.2 million contract. Over his career, Cobb has started 115 games, thrown 700 innings with a 3.50 ERA. It seems unlikely that Tampa Bay will resign him. Cobb isn’t necessarily a true ace and that’s a good thing. It means he won’t get paid like a true ace.

He’s more of a mid-rotation arm that has the potential to be a #2 starter when he’s at his best. Now, Cobb will be 30 next season. And teams, especially the Milwaukee Brewers, should be wary of giving long term deals to starting pitchers that are at least 30 years old.

Cobb missed all of 2015 and most of 2016 with Tommy John surgery. But in his first full season back from the surgery he was very effective. Because of that surgery, Cobb is unlikely to get more than three years on the market. If he can command four years on the market, David Stearns will bow out of the bidding for Cobb.

Rest assured, there will be a number of bidders for Cobb.

If the Milwaukee Brewers can convince Cobb that it’s worth taking a shorter deal to come play at Miller Park, the starting rotation is definitely something to be feared next season. He could easily get $12-15 million a year on whatever contract he signs.

RHP Bryan Shaw

Shaw will also be 30 next season and has been extremely effective for Cleveland in a lot of big situations in the postseason. He was instrumental in the Indians’ run to the World Series in 2016.

Hehas been steady, pitching to an ERA between 2.54 and 3.54 every season of his big league career. Shaw would be another quality arm late in games that Craig Counsell could go to. If Anthony Swarzak cannot be resigned then maybe Shaw will be an option.

He’s pitching on a $4.6 million deal this season and could earn a slight bump in pay this winter. He could earn something similar to what Swarzak could get in the two year, $10-15 million range. Cleveland will likely do everything they can to bring him back however.

GM David Stearns has had some success on the trade market lately. In case you didn’t notice, the Travis Shaw-Tyler Thornburg deal was a massive win for the Brewers.

Could lightning strike twice this winter? Let’s hope so.

The MLB Winter Meetings will be from December 10-14 in Orlando, FL this year. Those meetings are where most of the action happens on the Hot Stove. That’s where Stearns made the deal of the hour getting Travis Shaw from the Red Sox. It was the deal of the day until Boston got Chris Sale a few hours later. The Winter Meetings are an exciting time.

If deals are going to get done, these meetings are where most will happen. Every GM and his staff will be in one hotel for these meetings. So who could be on the trading block for the Brewers? There’s a couple positions that come to mind.

The Outfield

One of the current starting outfielders will be wearing a different uniform next season. That’s as much of a guarantee as can be provided. The starting outfielders include Ryan Braun, Keon Broxton, and Domingo Santana. One of those three will be gone next year.

Of the three, Broxton seems most likely to go. The Milwaukee Brewers have two prospects in Brett Phillips and Lewis Brinson ready and able to take over center field. Room needs to be made for them. Broxton could garner a return of a back-end starter and a decent prospect at best. Stearns can use Broxton’s 20-20 season to sell teams on his potential.

Santana has garnered a lot of interest from around the league from his great season and could also be a winter trade candidate per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. He would certainly get a big return for  Stearns but losing the production of Santana may be counterproductive to whatever return that may be. Stearns would have to be blown away to even consider dealing Santana.

The Milwaukee Brewers will likely trade Ryan Braun if they can. But it will be difficult to find a suitor for him. Virtually no market developed last winter for him and after the injuries he suffered this year and down production, Braun will likely stay in left field for the foreseeable future. The only way he leaves is if the Brewers accept a prospect package way below Braun’s value.

So Broxton seems the most likely to be traded and even though he would get the weakest return, it would open up a spot for the stash of outfield prospects waiting.

Left-Handed Pitching

This will be the key to any deal David Stearns makes this winter. If he trades for anyone, it will likely be a pitcher. The team needs starting pitching and could stand to add different arms in the bullpen.

Josh Hader and Brent Suter are the only lefties the Brewers currently have on their roster and that should change. Milwaukee has been without an everyday starting lefty for quite some time.

Suter doesn’t really count because he can’t be counted on to go past five innings. They need a lefty that is a traditional starter.

As for who that trade target could be, it’s anybody’s guess. There’s a lot more unknown about the trade market and the availability and interest of certain players. No one heard anything of the Brewers interest in Travis Shaw until the trade came down.

Whether it be a bullpen arm or a rotation arm, the Milwaukee Brewers should be on the lookout for a lefty this winter.

As a young team, the Milwaukee Brewers will have a lot of players eligible for arbitration.

There are 11 as a matter of fact. And a lot of them are due for a big raise after performances this season.

In arbitration, both the team and player file what they believe their contract should be for next year, if they can’t agree, the case goes to an arbitrator and they decide if the team’s offer or the player’s offer are best representative of what the player is worth.

If a team does not wish to bring a certain player back or pay up for a player in arbitration they can simply non-tender them. That’s what happened to Chris Carter last year. The contract would’ve been too much so the Crew didn’t tender him a contract.

A lot of these contracts are hashed out before the case goes to an arbitrator but not always. Chase Anderson lost his case last season. Let’s look at the cases of the Brewers eligible for arbitration this year.

Chase Anderson

He lost his case last year and played on a $2.45 million contract this season. Chase pitched to a 12-4 record with a 2.74 ERA in 25 starts with a 4.0 WAR. It looks like Anderson is due for a substantial pay raise this off-season.

Wily Peralta

Peralta was absolutely awful this season. He was DFA’ed and wasn’t brought back in September. Didn’t pitch well in Triple-A either. Expect a Non-Tender for Big Wily.

Stephen Vogt

Vogt came to the Milwaukee Brewers in late June and absolutely mashed since joining the Crew. Overall his numbers aren’t that impressive. A .233 average, a .285 OBP and a -0.2 WAR could mean that Vogt doesn’t get a large increase in pay next year. He was paid slightly under three million this year. The Brewers should expect something similar in the $3-4 million range.

Carlos Torres

Torres is about to be 35 years old and was paid $2.17 million this year. It’s his last year of arbitration and he pitched to a 4.27 ERA in 66 games. His WHIP of 1.52 is abysmal and don’t be surprised if he’s non-tendered to make room for an upgrade in the bullpen.

Jeremy Jeffress

Jeffress was having a rough season in Texas but he seemed to get back to his old self back in Milwaukee. He loves it here, he thrives here and he will be back next season. As far as the money goes, arbitration looks at the entire body of work, not just post-trade deadline. He got $2.1 million this year and his 4.68 ERA won’t help him increase that number. I would expect he avoids arbitration and signs a contract early in the process.

Jared Hughes

The 32-year old righty made less than $1 million in 2017 but he posted decent overall numbers. His 3.02 ERA not bad at all over 67 games. He’ll get a raise but nothing that will break the bank.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis

Insert your own idiom here. Pigs will fly over Miller Park before the Brewers tender Nieuwenhuis a contract.

Jonathan Villar

Villar made a major mistake not accepting the contract extension offered to him last spring. After a poor showing this year, his pay raise will be very minimal. He made slightly above league minimum this year and it will be difficult to see him getting over $2 million in any case.

Jimmy Nelson

Nelson was outstanding this season and made that big step forward. He was just shy of 200 K’s on the season and his 3.49 ERA was the best of his career. He was in line for a massive raise this winter before his injury. Now with the knowledge that he will miss a chunk of next season, his contract next year will be a fraction of what it was projected to be a month ago.

Hernan Perez

Perez is every MLB manager’s dream. He can play anywhere and play it well. He also produces at the plate no matter where he is playing. In 2017, he hit .262 with 14 homers, 51 RBIs, in 428 at-bats. That’s almost an everyday player number of ABs. Perez is going to get paid pretty well for a utility man. He made barely above minimum this year. Expect a big increase for Perez.

Corey Knebel

Here’s another guy who’s going to get a large raise this winter. Knebel didn’t take over the closer’s role until mid-May but he locked it down in the ninth inning for the Crew this year and was a major part of keeping the team in the hunt through all those close games. He made league minimum this year. That’s going to change as Knebel gets a big bump in pay.

The Rule 5 Draft occurs at the end of the Winter Meetings which will be December 14th this year. A few years ago, Wei Chung Wang was picked in the Rule 5 and was the last that was able to stick around with the Milwaukee Brewers.

As for who they could pick this year, no one knows. David Stearns doesn’t even know. But he will have an idea as to who he would want to protect from the draft.

As a refresher on the rules, players taken in the MLB portion of the draft must remain on the 25 man rosters for the whole season or be offered back to the original club. Players signed at 18 must be on the 40 man roster within five seasons and players signed at 19 or older must be added within four seasons or they are eligible.

Last year, Miguel Diaz was taken from the Crew with the first overall pick by the Padres. Also, the Milwaukee Brewers had six top 30 prospects to protect from the draft. They left Diaz unprotected and lost him. This year, it appears there are less.

It looks as if the Brewers have three prospects in their Top 30 to protect.

#11 Freddy Peralta

The 21-year old Peralta earned a mid-season promotion from High-A Carolina to Double-A Biloxi. He went 3-8 on the year but the record doesn’t indicate how much success he had in 2017. He pitched to a 2.63 ERA in 25 games with 169 K’s and opponents batting .178 against him. Peralta is a righty starter that has a future as a mid-rotation arm in the big leagues. Keeping him is a must. Peralta came over in the Adam Lind trade.

#15 Marcos Diplan

Diplan is much further away from the Majors than Peralta and didn’t have much success in Carolina this year, pitching to a 5.23 ERA. He is 21 years old, same as Peralta but he hasn’t been able to take the next step that Peralta has. Diplan could be a guy David Stearns elects to keep off the 40-man roster and run the risk of him being taken by another team. Diplan came as a part of the Yovani Gallardo trade in 2015 that brought Corey Knebel to the Crew.

#19 Jacob Nottingham

Nottingham came over in the Khris Davis deal with Oakland and has yet to produce. He was supposed to be the future at catcher after Jonathan Lucroy was inevitably traded but he hasn’t been able to hit since coming over. He hit .209 this year in Double-A  with only nine home runs. Power is his calling card but it seems like he only has batting practice power. Stearns could elect to keep Nottingham if the team still believes in him but don’t be surprised if he’s left unprotected.

This is going to be a very interesting off-season now that the Milwaukee Brewers are getting back to contention and will act more like a contender than a rebuilding club. It’s still a young ball club and finding the right mix of veterans and young talent is essential to the success of the team.

Conclusion

The Hot Stove, as its called, has been more of a lukewarm stove over the past few years as the team traded away pieces quietly and made scrap heap additions to the outskirts of the roster. Now David Stearns is ready to set this roster up for contention for many years. It could be one big splash, it could be multiple splashes, but this roster will look different on Opening Day in 2018, that’s for sure.

Although the Brewers aren’t going to the postseason, the off-season is still an exciting time as each team looks to improve for next year. Now Brewers fans have hope that the team will be in the postseason next year based on their play on the field. Fans will be more attuned to the wheelings and dealings of David Stearns. And now he is going to have a lot more to think about based on the play of this roster in 2017.

Next: Giancarlo Stanton to the Crew?

There will be a lot of rumors flying around, same as the July Trade Deadline, but now teams have more time to talk to each other about potential deals. A lot of trades that don’t go down in July could happen during the winter. There will be a lot of shuffling as teams prepare for next season and the Milwaukee Brewers could be doing the most shuffling of all of them.