Milwaukee Brewers Roundtable: The Ideal Future Infield

David

The 2017 season saw quite the overhaul of the Milwaukee Brewers infield. Travis Shaw and Eric Thames entered their first seasons in a Brewers uniform and they did not disappoint. Both first and third base were major question marks heading into that offseason prior to the 2017 season. Shaw and Thames answered those questions.

Another great surprise was former top prospect Orlando Arcia making big strides in his first full season in the big leagues. His bat started to heat up in May and June and he finished with 15 homers and a .277 average. Arcia is the clear future at the shortstop position.

Second base is the position with major question marks, not only for 2018, but beyond. Jonathan Villar looked like the future after a breakout 2016 season. However, he regressed hard in 2017 and his future is now up in the air. The Brewers have several prospects that can handle second base. But which one is the future?

For me, the ideal left side of the infield is already set. Travis Shaw should be able to lock down the hot corner for several years, even with the presence of Lucas Erceg down on the farm. Orlando Arcia is the ideal shortstop for the next 10-12 years in Milwaukee. He is a superstar in the making.

The right side of the infield is much more difficult. At first base, Eric Thames is there at present but he is already 31 years old and only under contract for the next two years. There are other options for first base in the near future. Ryan Braun is a candidate to be moved to first given the outfield surplus. Also, Jake Gatewood is the only prospect on the farm whose future is tied to the position. Lucas Erceg could also make the shift with Shaw staying at third.

At second base, it’s a matter of who can get to the big leagues and claim the job first. Jonathan Villar will get the first half of 2018 to try to claim the job. If he can’t, Mauricio Dubon will get his opportunity. If Dubon can’t get things going, it’s a race between Isan Diaz and Keston Hiura to get to the big leagues first. But I don’t think it will get that far.

Diaz and Hiura may have higher ceilings but both come with significant question marks. After a big 2016, Diaz regressed hard in High-A, hitting a meager .222 in Carolina. Hiura is rated as a poor defender and has dealt with arm injuries for several years. If he can’t even play second base defensively, where can he go?

My ideal future infield has Travis Shaw at third, Orlando Arcia at short, Mauricio Dubon at second, and Lucas Erceg at first base.

Dubon may not have a ton of power, but he hits for a high average and is a tremendous defender that can play multiple positions. Dubon, with his high average and great speed, makes for an ideal leadoff hitter. I feel he will settle in at second base later in 2018 after a little seasoning in Triple-A. Erceg’s bat is moving quickly through the minors and it will force his way onto the big league roster. He can take over first base for several years.

John

The Milwaukee Brewers are set at the hot corner and at shortstop for 2018, and beyond. However, first and second base is an entirely different situation.

We have yet to see the future first baseman play in MLB. Based off of his development, Lucas Erceg is leading the charge. If he can replicate his success in Spring Training from a year ago, Erceg has a chance to get meaningful at bats this season. However, the player who looks like the Brewers future is Tristen Lutz.

With the depth of the outfield throughout the organization, Lutz will almost certainly have to find a new position. Only 18 years old, he’s only beginning to scratch the surface of his potential.

First base is a tough conundrum as a whole. It’s too early to know for sure what Lutz is as a baseball player, but his upside is very high and he’s my guy for the future. Until Lutz is ready, many different combinations will be happening at first. However, as soon as Lutz is ready, the job should be his.

Now let’s talk about second base.

One name to keep an eye on is Keston Hiura. The problem with Hiura is his ability with the glove. I know, you can stash lesser defenders at second base and be okay. His bat will make it hard to keep him out of the line-up, but is anybody honestly looking forward to Rickie Weeks 2.0? That’s who Hiura reminds me of, and while Weeks had his moments, he was a liability in the field.

Isan Diaz is thought to be more of a defense first player, but his bat works just fine. Acquired as part of the Jean Segura trade, it didn’t take long for Diaz to leave his mark. He was named Milwaukee Brewers Minor League Player of The Year in his first season with Milwaukee.

He took a step back in 2017, but still showed enough to give Brewers fans hope. Diaz is most likely ticketed for Double A to start this season, but by the time 2020 rolls around he should be Major League ready.

Mauricio Dubon has future All-Star written all over him. Acquired along with Travis Shaw in the Tyler Thornburg trade, Dubon looks like the leadoff hitter the Milwaukee Brewers have lacked the last few seasons.

Although he doesn’t walk a lot, he still manages to reach base often. When he does get on base, he can do real damage with his legs. Dubon had 38 stolen bases across two levels of the minors this season for The Crew. He won’t hit a lot of home runs, but that’s not what his job will be.

Dubon won’t break camp with the big league club, but unless Sogard or Villar step up and take hold of the position, we should see him before too long. He is the future at second for Milwaukee, and that future should start sooner rather than later.

My Ideal Future Infield

Shaw will be the third baseman for the foreseeable future. With Orlando Arcia entrenched at short, that side of the infield will be top notch defensively for a long time. At second is Dubon, who is ready to play a big role for Milwaukee’s future. And at first is Lutz, but that’s not likely to happen until maybe 2021. Some combination of Lucas Erceg, Eric Thames, Jesus Aguilar, Ryan Braun, and Jake Gatewood will keep his seat warm Until that time.

Max

The Milwaukee Brewers future infield for the 2018 season will likely be:

3B: Shaw

SS: Arcia

2B: Villar/Sogard/Perez

1B: Thames

I’d like to see the Brewers ship Eric Thames to a team that loses out on free agent Eric Hosmer, but I don’t think that will happen. I also have not seen any rumors that sound like the Brewers are close to acquiring a 2B better than the options they currently have to weave in and out of that position.

In the years ahead, however, this infield will definitely change. With General Manager David Stearns willing to, anything is to benefit team, predicting this stuff is pretty futile. But, Stearns has already done enough to show a trend to make guesses. My conservative crystal ball has this to say.

Third Base

Shaw has to move by trade or position to make room for Lucas Erceg. I am high on this 3B prospect with a potential middle-of-the-order bat and great throwing arm. Erceg is the Brewers 3B of the future.

Shortstop

That being said, Orlando Arcia is the future SS. Arcia gets most of his praise for his defense, but he also had hitting breakthroughs as early as the 2017 season. One note, however. If the team’s scouts truly believe in using Mauricio Dubon at SS, then we could see a trade. Milwaukee traded JJ Hardy because they had Alcides Escobar coming, and they traded Escobar because they had Arcia coming. I think Arcia is the guy this time, but only time will tell.

Second Base

The biggest question for the Milwaukee Brewers future infield is 2B. The Brewers 2017 top 30 prospect list has three 2B in its top ten, and that includes two that make the MLB top 10 2B Prospect List. Dubon might be closest to the majors, but he is a speed guy without the greatest walk-rate. Isan Diaz projects as a power bat at the position, but the most intriguing option is Keston Hiura.

The Milwaukee Brewers drafted Hiura with the ninth pick in the 2017 draft. Scouts say Hiura has a very advanced bat. On defense, however, an injured elbow limited his defense in college.

I think his defense will get better in the minor leagues. I project Hiura as the Brewers future 2B if he stays healthy.

First Base

Eric Thames hits for power and has a good eye at the plate, but his strikeout rate went up as the 2017 season went on. MLB pitchers seemed to make adjustments that Thames did not entirely figure out.

Maybe it was just fatigue from not playing as many games during his previous years in Korea. In either case, I would rather see the Brewers trade Thames than make him a permanent part of the future.

Jake Gatewood and Jacob Nottingham lurk in the Brewers system as potential 1B options. Furthermore, one of the Brewers OFs could transition to this position if needed. Moreover, Ryan Braun said he would play 1B if the OF gets overcrowded.

I’m going to cheat a little and say that I believe the Brewers future 1B will be a converted OF. If everything goes right, Thames and Shaw will be odd-men out beyond the 2018 season.

Trevor

I agree with Max in that Eric Thames will be in an awkward spot in the near future. In my mind there just will not be a place for him in the Milwaukee Brewers lineup. However, Travis Shaw needs to remain at third for as long as he is producing.

The thing about this is that not everyone is going to stay at their same position. Of all of the cadidates sitting in the organization, I would say Jake Gatewood is the biggest trade candidate. He is full of talent, but just wouldn’t really fit.

With Shaw holding down third, it will force Lucas Erceg to transition into a first baseman. Or vice versa. That will, hopefully, cap off those position for years to come. That is how I see it going, anyway. And the other point Max makes about Thames going to an Eric Hosmer loser is also brilliant.

Shortstop is pretty much well known. So the biggest, and most fun, debate is going to be who will take over the second base role. Between Mauricio Dubon, Isan Diaz and Keston Hiura, it is anybody’s guess.

Personally, I like Dubon for the spot. He will turn into a reliable hitter and be an excellent middle infield partner with Orlando Arcia. Dubon is someone the Milwaukee Brewers will be penciling in their lineup before 2018 is over.

Hiura will develop into a better hitter. In fact, he probably already is. But his defensive reputation is such that he will be a major liability. An American League team would love to have him for a price that helps the Brewers.

Unfortunately, for Diaz that means he is left out of the pack. Unless he proves he belongs, that is the down side to solid farms. however, he is another candidate to be successful on another team. He does have trade value.

Next: Making A Mock Trade With The Indians

That leaves my predictions and hopes reading as follows:

1B: Lucas Erceg

2B:Mauricio Dubon

3B: Travis Shaw

SS: Orlando Arcia