Milwaukee Brewers: 2018 Position Previews

With spring training in action, let’s take a look at where the 2018 Milwaukee Brewers stand. In this preview, I’ll evaluate the presumed starter and other options within and outside of the roster at each position. While there is still a month to change things, this will provide a good idea of what this squad has to work with this season.

Catcher

By most accounts, Manny Pina has seemed to grab a slight hold of the starting catching position this upcoming year. However, multiple projections offer different forecasts as to the Brewer behind home plate come Opening Day. Thus, choosing the starter is equivalent to picking March Madness flawlessly. It is agreed that Milwaukee doesn’t have a clear-cut guy at the position.

While a 30-year-old veteran with 11 career home runs doesn’t turn any heads, Pina offers the most valuable quality. On a team stacked with hitting and lacking pitching, quality defense behind the plate is necessary.

This past year, Manny Pina recorded a ridiculous defensive runs above average of 12.5, according to FanGraphs. Had he qualified, Pina would have ranked eighth overall, second at his position, in 2017. This means that the breakout backstop would slot in right behind one of the greatest defensive catchers of this generation, Yadier Molina.

Although catcher defensive metrics are mediocre at best, this means good tidings for the Brewers. The talent Milwaukee lacks in their starting staff will be helped with a stalwart behind the plate. Considering the defensive metrics peg some of the known quantities in baseball, like Molina and J.T. Realmuto, this is the light at the end of the tunnel. If Pina can take control of this rotation, along with competency in the box, the Brewers are in a good position. All of that hinges on Manny being a whole different kind of Manny and making his name with his glove.

Other Starting Options

One route Milwaukee could take is penciling in Stephen Vogt as the starter. He did not perform up to expectations in 2016 with the Athletics. He posted an awful offensive season yet salvaged a manageable WAR with an above average year with the glove. The slide continued with Vogt posting a dreadful 2017 season, offensively and defensively, and finding himself moving from Oakland to Wisconsin.

The former Athletic is working on his defense, and if he can recover his swing, Vogt may be in the perfect situation. The two-time all-star doesn’t have to do much to impress in a lackluster group. However, if we were taking bets, I’d wager that Vogt is closer to being out of the organization than in the starting lineup April 1^st.

Another path the Brewers can take is outside of the organization. Milwaukee dealing for J.T. Realmuto, along with others, still isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

All in all, the Milwaukee Brewers seem to be set with their current in-house options. However, it will not be shocking to see the squad trot out another name at the end of summer.

First Base

Presumed Starter

To start the season, my guess is fans will be hearing Eric Thames as the first baseman. The man who posted a 124 wRC+ in his first season back in the majors, along with a WAR of 2.1, seems like quite an obvious pick. Yet there is buzz throughout the league that the Brewers will move away from the breakout slugger at the position.

Is it weird to predict that a player who hit 31 home runs and recorded a .359 on-base percentage will be even better in 2018? Thames came to the majors after taking a hiatus in Korea and studying the mental aspects of hitting. He represented the Brewer’s big signing at the time and seemed to pay off as he took the league by storm with his unheard of .464 isolated power in the first month. Anytime you have the MLB investigating you for steroids as closely as the FBI keeps an eye on slick Rick, you’re doing something right.

The former Korean star burst onto the scene with a patient approach and juice in his bat. However, as the grueling 162 game season does to so many inexperienced hitters, the dog days of summer took its toll on Thames. He struggled from June through August, recording strikeout rates above 30 percent and seeing his walk rate crumble. But he recovered a little, gaining some semblance of plate discipline in September and October.

Eric Thames won’t be the MVP-caliber hitter the league saw in March and April. He also won’t be the below average first baseman in the summer that pitchers seemed to figure out. My guess is Thames shocks the league yet again when he returns to the patient hitter he was with a full year of experience.

Other Options

The main focus of spring training is getting Ryan Braun reps at first base. This makes sense for a lot of reasons.

Braun is entering his age 34 season and his body is showing that. He struggled defensively in the outfield last year and has spent enough time on the injury report that he should be paying rent. Braun has never been a wizard in the field, but he still produces offensively. Considering Thames wasn’t the greatest defender at the position (that’s a blatant lie, he was truly awful), the Brewers wouldn’t be missing much moving their left fielder to first.

Moving Braun will also clear up the logjam that has become Milwaukee’s outfield. This will open up a spot for Domingo Santana in the lineup and allow the Brewers to put out arguably their best team. With center fielders Cain and Yelich manning the other two spots, Santana’s lack of range will be minimized. Additionally, the Brewers could try out an all-defensive team to help the rotation, putting in a third center fielder in Brett Phillips.

Ryan Braun getting in practice at first allows the Brewers some creativity with their squad. It will also give the team more options for resting guys, hopefully having everyone healthy and ready for a postseason run.

Second Base

Presumed Starter

Another rotating door for positions in Milwaukee is second base, where Jonathan Villar is expected to start come Opening Day. The 26-year-old middle infielder has had a very up and down career thus far. It seems as if Villar has been in the league forever because he entered the majors so young.

After a year of insane offensive production with the Brewers, Villar fell off in 2017. He finished with a wRC+ of 71, over 40 points below his solid 119 number the previous season. A lack of plate discipline was the main reason for his decline as his strikeout rate rose and his walk rate dropped.

Villar needs to get back to the .369 on-base percentage he posted in 2016 to use his most valuable asset. There is a chance the former Astros leadoff hitter returns to that form. He has begun researching the most patient hitter in the majors, Joey Votto. If learning from the best can transfer to the batter’s box, the Milwaukee Brewers will have an elite option at the top of the order.

Milwaukee will turn its already promising offense to a juggernaut if it can feature a 20-homer, 60-plus steal infielder at the top of the order. However, if Villar doesn’t regain his previous form, he won’t remain the starting second baseman for long. It doesn’t help that he struggles with his glove, which will be his downfall if he disappoints at the plate.

Other Options

Barring a move through free agency or trade, the only other choice is Eric Sogard.

The goggle-laden second baseman had a quietly impressive season in 2017. He rated as an above average hitter in 299 plate appearances while contributing quality defense. The main concern with the 31-year-old is his inability to generate any kind of impact with his bat. He posted an exceptional .393 on-base percentage, 15^th highest among those with 250 plate appearances. Yet his .378 slugging percentage was far below league average, measuring his obvious lack of power.

There is something to be said of having a player of Sogard’s ilk at the top of the order. Placing a hitter who gets on base as much as him at the top of the order could generate a lot of offense, especially having premier bats following. However, his lack of speed on the base paths and below average power could keep him out of the starting spot.

Second base could be one of the most interesting positional battles this whole year. In one corner, the Brewers feature a young, generational speedster with serviceable power and elite offensive potential. In the other corner, Milwaukee has an exceptional, money-ball hitter who could be the spark plug of an elite lineup. The Brewers will not be afraid of using both players, making each game day lineup decision even more intriguing.

Third Base

Presumed Starter

It’s no secret who will be manning the hot corner for the Brewers this season. Travis Shaw will be looking to follow up his breakout season in 2017 and lead Milwaukee to a playoff berth.

Coming into last year, Shaw looked like a dart throw for the Brewers when they made the trade for him. The organization took a chance on a player coming off a down year in Boston who showed promise with his first cup of coffee in the majors. Never a highly touted prospect, Shaw showed potential in 2015 with the Red Sox. Yet he collapsed the next year and his stock tanked. Milwaukee bought low on the third baseman and found their franchise cornerstone at the position.

The question with Travis Shaw is can he make his breakout season in 2017 the norm. He finished the year as a top 10 third baseman in the league in terms of WAR and ended with a wRC+ of 119. He also posted a .273/.349/.513 slash line with 31 home runs and 101 RBIs along with providing solid defense. There’s no way of avoiding it, Travis Shaw had an exceptional season that may not be repeated. However, his underlying numbers may show otherwise.

The Brewer’s third baseman’s patience at the plate fueled his great offense. His walk rate rose almost two full percentage points, from 8.1 to 9.9 percent. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate fell back to his 2015 rate, dropping two percentage points from his down 2016 year. Additionally, his isolated power spiked to .240, explaining the near doubling of his home run total. Finally, his BABIP stayed right in line with his career average of .305.

Shaw is a tough player to predict. He has around two and a half years track record to pull from to see what he really is at the plate. Fans and analysts alike generally fall into two camps. Either you believe he wasn’t highly touted for a reason and his 2016 numbers are closer to his talent level, or you trust his peripherals and the growth he has experienced since entering the league. Regardless, if Shaw’s patience continues to grow like it has, the bandwagon will be growing more crowded by the second. Might as well hop on while there’s still leg room available.

Other Options

There isn’t much to be said here with a potential all-star at the position. However, in case there is an injury we should take a look at the other guys available.

A career utility player, Hernan Perez would most likely slide in if Shaw goes down during the season. Perez is a fine option as essentially a fifth infielder. He can slide in and provide something around a .290 OBP along with 30-plus steal speed if given a full season. Along with decent defense and shocking power, the Brewers could be worse off for a backup third baseman.

In addition to Perez, Jonathan Villar is also an option at third if he isn’t manning second base. As seen in the write-up on Villar, he could be an extremely valuable player to this Milwaukee squad. However, if he loses the starting job at second and is relegated to backing up his fellow infielders, chances are he didn’t fix his offensive struggles from 2016.

Shortstop

Presumed Starter

Orlando Arcia will be manning the Brewer’s shortstop position for a long time to come barring any trades or injuries. A former top prospect for Milwaukee, the 23-year-old came up in 2016 for about a third of the season. He finished the year with lackluster offensive numbers, an expected result considering the age and defensive mindset. However, his defense wasn’t as exceptional as it was touted, leaving fans worrying about his bust potential.

Arcia followed up his rookie appearance with a much better 2017. He still struggled at the plate, but not to the degree that he had in his initial call up. The shortstop finished with a .277/.324/.407 slash line while also contributing 15 home runs and 14 steals. These numbers are a solid baseline for such a young player and leaves room for improvement as he continues to adjust.

One area that Arcia should look to develop is his plate discipline. A walks-per-nine of 6.6% is below league average and would be crucial to developing him as an offensive commodity. Raising that rate a few percentage would allow the middle infielder to use the above average speed he possesses a lot more.

On the other side of the ball, Arcia is going to be a terror with his glove. Having a guy with his level of defensive abilities will help out the below-average pitching staff a lot. Thus, Arcia is the perfect fit for this current squad in Milwaukee. The shortstop is someone who will do more than is asked of him in the field while also developing his bat in a loaded lineup. In a few years Arcia’s name will be included in this new generation of elite, two-way shortstops.

Other Options

Similar to Travis Shaw, there will need to be an injury to push Arcia out of the starting role. Regardless, some of the names that come to mind on the depth chart are Hernan Perez and Mauricio Dubon.

Perez is a utility player. There’s not too much else to it. Only 26 years old, he’s solely a speedster on the base paths. He struggles at the plate, peaking at a .300 on-base percentage. He does provide a surprising amount of pop, probably reaching the 20 home run plateau given a full season of at-bats. He’s an extremely useful player, able to move from position to position without much trouble. However, he won’t be pushing anyone out of a starting role anytime soon.

Another player to keep an eye on is Mauricio Dubon. At 23 years old, the middle infield prospect just barely cracks the Brewer’s top 10 overall prospect rankings. He is an extremely capable runner on the bases, recording 31 steals in Double-A in just 304 at-bats. Yet his skills at the plate are a little worrisome.

He doesn’t get on base as much as one would want a player to do in the minor leagues. His low walk rate and low on-base percentage don’t project well in the majors. However, he does make consistent contact, finishing with strikeout rates below 14% for the past two years in Double and Triple-A ball. Although he has the potential to be a solid contributor in the steals department, he doesn’t have much else to become a household name in the majors.

Center Field

Presumed Starter

Another relatively easy position to figure out heading into the season. Barring injury, Lorenzo Cain will be trotting out to center field on Opening Day for Milwaukee.

Cain will bring necessary consistency to the position as arguably the biggest free agent signing in a while for the franchise. The former Royal provided elite defense and quality offense for contending squads in Kansas City. Now, he will look to do the same for a Milwaukee Brewers team looking to make its first playoff appearance in six years.

A largely known commodity in the MLB, Cain’s numbers are solid when he stays healthy. However, that does seem to be an issue with the aging center fielder. The former all-star has recorded two seasons in which he logged over 550 at-bats and had elite production in both years. One of those seasons, 2015, Cain finished third in MVP voting with ridiculous numbers on both the offensive and defensive end.

It’s no question of whether Lorenzo Cain is a talented player or not. Rather, can he stay healthy, given his age and his position’s demands, for the Brewer’s to reap rewards from the signing. If he can’t stay healthy, or is given regular rest, there’s still quality options off the bench.

Other Options

The two guys expected to rotate in center field given an opening are Keon Broxton and Brett Phillips. Both center fielders by trade, the two reserves provide solid defense in the outfield. Their offensive performance this spring will determine where these guys are on April 1st.

There’s no use in beating around the bush, Broxton was awful last year. He looked overwhelmed at the plate as he led the league in strikeout rate at 37.8% among those with over 400 at-bats. He was so bad as a hitter that he still makes regular appearances in Brewers’ fans’ nightmares. A popular breakout pick before the season started as a possible 30-30, Carlos Gomez replica, his inability to make consistent contact led to his downfall.

Realistically, it’s impossible to sit here and make any case for a player that struck out on nearly 40 percent of his at-bats. But, if he can figure out a way to cut down on the punch-outs, there is something there.

Broxton followed up the 2016 year, in which he was on pace for over 60 stolen bases, with 20 home runs and 21 steals in two-thirds of the 2017 season. He also posted a walk rate of 14.8 percent in 2016, six percentage points greater than last years, yet still struck out on 36 percent of at-bats. He has some amount of patience in the batter’s box, and if he shows more growth in that department then he’s a valuable asset. Now, similar to Jonathan Villar, Broxton must figure out how to trade some of those strikeouts for walks.

The other guy vying for playing time in a crowded outfield is 23-year-old Brett Phillips. Phillips, similar to Keon, struggled with strikeouts last year in his short sample in the majors. However, the Brewers prospect provides more than just a bat when in the lineup, giving him an advantage over Broxton.

Brett Phillips, known for his glove, recorded a defensive runs above average of 4.5 in just 37 games last year. That would put him in the top 10 among position players in the majors if he were to play a full season with the Brewers. His defense is elite in the outfield, but his bat limits him.

In his first cup of coffee in the majors, Phillips recorded a near 35% strikeout rate, right in line with Broxton. He was also on pace for a 20-30 season, a quality season given his .350 on-base percentage.

Brett Phillips and Keon Broxton are very comparable at the plate, the only difference being their BABIP. Phillips got extremely lucky with an inflated .408 BABIP. Projecting in some regression in that department, the two outfielders project to have around the same offensive season. However, Broxton is the more likely of the two to contribute more in the home run and steals categories.

Right Field

Presumed Starter

This is a tricky position to currently evaluate. Opportunities could open up for other guys in right with Ryan Braun getting work in at first base this spring. However, changing positions at age 34 is harder than it seems. Thus, the face of the franchise will most likely be in right field for the start of the season.

There’s no doubting Ryan Braun’s history. He has absurd numbers, the peak being two straight 30-30 seasons and an MVP award in 2011 after putting forth a wRC+ of 171. Braun’s track record is ridiculous, and that’s the reason he’s the face of Milwaukee Brewers baseball. But he’s a ticking time bomb, an extremely injury prone player on the wrong side of 30.

In the 2015 and 2016 seasons, Braun recorded exceptional offensive numbers after a down year. He finished the seasons with over a 130 wRC+ in both and his usual below average defensive output. Even with the injuries in each of the seasons, the veteran was still a fairly productive outfielder. Yet he followed up those two years with a season ravaged by injuries, missing nearly a third of the season. His frail body left many fans wondering if last year was the beginning of the end of the face of the Milwaukee Brewers.

With a prospect on the rise in Domingo Santana, it will be interesting to see how Craig Counsell handles the lineup. Getting the 25-year-old outfielder into the lineup consistently is a must, and Braun picking up first base quickly would help. But so far that is not the case.

The Brewers will be forced to choose between two routes if the transition is tougher than expected. Down one they have loyalty, while the other is the future and arguably more success. How Milwaukee handles this debacle throughout the season may determine how deep into the playoffs they go.

Rotation

Probably the most crucial part of this season, whether the rotation will be able to perform well enough for the offense to win games. Looking at the prospects of the 2018 season, its questionable whether that will be the case. The following is what I predict to be the pitching staff come April 1^st:

Chase Anderson

Having Anderson as the ace of a staff isn’t the best route to a championship. However, he pitched well last year, to the tune of a 2.74 ERA and 3.58 FIP. His ground ball rate is worrisome in Miller, and he benefited from a generous left-on-base percentage.

Anderson is due for some regression this upcoming year based on his peripherals. His ERA may sit more between his FIP and xFIP, 3.58 and 4.33, respectively. That’s not great for the top starter, but it should be serviceable with this offense.

Zach Davies

I’m less bullish on Zach Davies than most. Just please ignore the wins category for him, and just in general, for any pitcher. It is the most misleading statistic ever created. Once we get past that, his resume is that of a back end of the rotation guy. Not a number two.

While his ground ball rate of 50% was very solid, well above league average, he doesn’t have much else. His strikeouts-per-nine (K/9) of 5.83 doesn’t scare anyone and that’s why his FIP is at 4.22 and not equal to his 3.90 ERA. If Davies hits the 15-win mark again, it’s going to be because of the offense and insane durability, not his talent.

Jhoulys Chacin

After escaping two notorious hitters’ parks, Chacin didn’t look awful last year. He settled into a more neutral site in San Diego, where he recorded a 3.89 ERA. Similar to Davies, he outpitched his FIP and xFIP, the latter significantly. Yet there is hope.

He keeps the ball on the ground while striking out a fine amount of batters. If the former Padres starter can hone in the walk rate, like in his breakout 2013 season, then the Brewers have something to work with. However, that’s a big if considering the last few seasons, and Milwaukee may be looking at another ERA in the fours.

Brent Suter

Critics will point to his numbers on the third time through the order as a reason to doubt his ability to start. Rather than having him throw the first pitch, many would rather use him as a long reliever. But Suter might be perfect in this rotation.

Inflated thanks to his work on the third time through, the 28-year-old still finished with a 3.42 ERA and 3.75 FIP. He had an above league average strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) rate and he handled lefty-righty splits amazingly for an inexperienced starter. With a ridiculously talented and deep bullpen, having Suter be a fourth starter that can give you a solid five innings each time out is valuable. While people leap off the bandwagon for dear life, I’ll kick my feet up and make myself comfortable.

Wade Miley

Say it with me: Don’t overreact to Spring Training numbers. Alright, while you’re doing that, I’ll happily buy all the Wade Miley stock possible. The former Oriole looked awful last year. His ERA of 5.61 was very much real while he walked around five batters per nine innings. Anytime a pitcher is putting guys on for free that often, he won’t have success. However, this offseason Miley is on a mission to get back to his career walks per nine (BB/9), which sits around three.

Looking at his spring training thus far, Miley seems to be serious about the changes. He has walked one batter while striking out 11 in eight total innings. If he can keep up this walk rate, though such a short sample I must admit, then the Milwaukee Brewers may have found a bargain. He’s had solid seasons in the past while coming up in the extreme hitters’ environment that is Arizona. And when he went to Baltimore things got even worse. His home run-to-fly ball rate was completely inflated. That, coupled with an uncharacteristically high walk rate, spelled doom.

Don’t pay too much attention to the ERA this spring. Instead, keep an eye on his strikeout-to-walk ratio to see if the Brewers buying low on Wade Miley will pay dividends.

Keep an Eye On

Brandon Woodruff could be the spark that this Milwaukee rotation needs. The 25-year-old pitching prospect ranks 93^rd in Keith Law’s top 100 prospects. However, he has struggled so far in spring, but once again, take spring training results with a grain of salt.

A hard throwing lefty, Woodruff could very well be the fourth or fifth guy in the rotation. According to scouting reports, he relies on a hard fastball and offers a solid slider and decent changeup. His fastball is the most advanced of his stuff, with the slider and changeup trailing but still possessing potential.

In his first appearance in the majors last year, Woodruff struggled in eight starts. He pitched to the tune of a 4.81 ERA and his K/9 fell from around ten in the minors to 6.7. However, his BB/9 stayed right in line with career numbers, offering some hope. If Woodruff can advance his slider-changeup combo, he has the potential to be a valuable contributor to a desperate rotation this season.

Bullpen

Possibly my favorite area of the Milwaukee Brewers squad this season. This is an extremely promising bullpen to help patch up a shaky rotation. I am giddy for this strikeout heavy bullpen that features the unhittable Corey Knebel. Here we will touch on a few of my favorites, starting with one of the best names in baseball:

Boone Logan

Love the player almost as much as I love the name. An extreme strikeout lefty, Boone was terribly unlucky last year. He finished with an ERA of 4.71 while his FIP and xFIP were around 3.11. His BABIP was also a lot higher than league average, sitting at .353.

Boone could be a huge addition to this Milwaukee bullpen. Compared to the league average of 2.53 for relievers, his K/BB last year of 3.11 was unfair. Even if he doesn’t pitch as well as his peripherals dictate, we still get to hear “Boone Logan” called out each time he trots to the mound. And, to be honest, that is really enough for me to be happy with this addition.

Josh Hader

The Brewer’s former top pitching prospect is an absolute menace as a long reliever. Not quite ready to jump to the rotation, Hader has made a name for himself as a Chris Devenski clone. The 23-year-old legitimately terrifies hitters as they come into the box with his 12.84 K/9 and finished 2017 with a 2.08 ERA. Not far off of his FIP and xFIP numbers, Hader will look to continue the success he had last year. Hader is worth the hype considering his age and success in his rookie year. If the lefty can figure out his walk issues too then there may be no ceiling to his potential.

Corey Knebel

Last but certainly not least, the man of the ninth inning. Finishing third in the league in K/9 at 14.92, ahead of names like Kenley Jansen and Andrew Miller, Knebel was dominant. Carried by his elite strikeout rate, Knebel also posted the ninth best ERA out of all relievers. Although his walk rate is a bit concerning, the Brewer’s closer is a top reliever in the majors.

At a position where there’s a lot of question marks throughout the league, the 26-year-old strikeout artist gives Milwaukee an edge. The advantage of being able to send a one run lead to the ninth inning and not worrying about losing the game can’t be stressed enough.

Overview

Next: Dodging A Corey Knebel-Sized Bullet

On the heels of a shocking 2017, the Milwaukee Brewers aren’t taking anyone by surprise this year. The Brewers will be making a playoff push thanks to the acquisitions of some shiny new toys and lesser known names. Fans throughout the world should get used to this team in Wisconsin as they are here to stay for years to come.