Milwaukee Brewers: On the Road Again, Road Trip Preview

After a long home stand, the Milwaukee Brewers are headed back on the road for a three-city road trip. First up is Kansas City, then stops in Chicago and Cincinnati before heading back to home sweet home at Miller Park.

The Milwaukee Brewers‘ offense has been red-hot since their disappointing 10-4 loss to the Cincinnati Reds. It can be argued that the level of competition they were up against played a large role in that. And well, that’s a valid point.

Both the Reds and the Marlins have struggled early on in the 2018 season. We’re going to take a look at the Crew’s success rates at home vs. on the road. Plus, there will be a preview of the three parks they are headed to and whether the long ball will be as big of a factor as it has been thus far.

The stat that will be focused on for the course of this article is Park Factor, based on ESPN’s rankings. The way this stat is calculated is by taking runs scored at home plus the runs allowed at home, divided by the amount of home games. That number is then divided by the resulting number of the runs scored on the road plus the amount of runs allowed on the road, divided by the total number of road games the team played.

Ballparks that have a Park Factor higher than 1.0 favor the hitter. Below 1.0 is in favor of the pitcher.

Home vs. Away

The Milwaukee Brewers’ record didn’t look great at home until after their 6-game win streak. They now boast an 8-7 record at Miller Park, while their record on the road currently stands at 6-3.

According to ESPN, Miller Park last year ranked in the 8 spot with a Park Factor of 1.094 runs. So far this season, the home of the Crew ranks in 13th, at 1.034 runs.

Wrigley Field

Of the parks the Milwaukee Brewers will play at over their three-city road trip, Wrigley Field was ranked the highest on the list in the 5 spot. Their Park Factor was 1.131 runs, as calculated by ESPN. So far for the 2018 season, Wrigley Field ranks in the top three, with an average of 1.470 runs.

In addition, there is an average of 2.250 home runs per game. Wrigley is definitely a park that favors the hitters.

The Crew has already played the Chicago Cubs, at “Wrigley North,” otherwise known as Miller Park. After the 4-game series, Milwaukee holds a record of 1-3 against their conference foe.

After the Cubs barely beat out the Brewers for the NL Central crown in the 2017 season, it is imperative that Milwaukee takes as many games from them as they can.

It is currently unknown whether Chicago third baseman Kris Bryant will be available for the series or not. He was hit in the head with a 96 MPH fastball against the Colorado Rockies on Sunday. According to ESPN, he did not display any concussion symptoms. But, as expected, he is currently day-to-day.

In Bryant’s 16 at-bats during the first 4-game series against the Crew, his batting average was .313. He had five hits, including a home run, and walked three times.

Probable Pitchers

Jhoulys Chacin is listed as the probable starter for game one. He did not pitch in the first series against the Cubs in 2018. But, in the past three seasons (2015-2017) he has posted an ERA of 3.00 against them and he is 0-1 at Wrigley Field.

Game Two

For game two, the lefty Brent Suter is scheduled to be on the mound. He lately has been showing off his dance moves in the dugout, but his performance on the field hasn’t been quite as stellar yet. His 2018 ERA is 5.68, and he has a 1-2 record. But, his one win came on the road. So far in his career, he has only pitched 0.1 innings at Wrigley, and his career record stands at 1-0 against the Cubs.

But, due to the tendency of the 2018 Milwaukee Brewers to play roster roulette, it is possible that Suter will be optioned down before this game. If Wade Miley is healthy by then, he may take Suter’s spot in the rotation.

Game Three

Game three’s probable starter is Junior Guerra. In the 2018 season, he has yet to pitch against the Cubs. But, from 2015-2017, he posted a 1.89 ERA against Chicago in 6 games played, for a total of 19 innings. In the one career inning that he has pitched at Wrigley, he gave up one earned run.

Game Four

For game four, Zach Davies is slated to get the start. Against the Cubs this year in his one start, he pitched 6 innings, giving up 4 hits and 1 run. He walked 3 and struck out 8. From 2015-2017, he posted a record of 5-4 against Chicago, with an ERA of 3.90. At Wrigley, he boasts a career record of 4-1 in 28.0 innings pitched, with an ERA of 4.18.

The Great American Ball Park

It is definitely a hitter’s park. In 2017‘s rankings, the home of the Cincinnati Reds ranked 13th on the list, with a Park Factor of 1.020 runs. 2018 has been the same story, and the Great American Ball Park ranks 11th so far, with an average of 1.109 runs. As far as home runs go, there is an average of 2.206 per game hit.

This, again, bodes very well for the Milwaukee Brewers. Especially for Eric Thames, who has performed at his best against the Cincinnati Reds. Further, his performance in April against the Reds is particularly insane.

The Crew took the last series against Cincinnati, winning the last two of the three game series. After losing 10-4 in game one to a team that is currently 3-18, the Milwaukee Brewers won the next two in a deja vu sort of fashion. Eric Thames crushed a two-run blast in each game to take down the NL Central’s last place team.

Probable Pitchers

Chase Anderson is set to take the mound at the Great American Ball Park in game one. In his major league career, he is 2-1 against the Reds with an ERA of 3.00. At Great American, he is 1-1, and he has given up four home runs at the ball park.

Game Two

Game two has Jhoulys Chacin slated to start. He also did not make an appearance in the first series against the Reds. In the past three years (2015-2017) he has posted a 1-1 record against Cincinnati with an ERA of 4.85. At Great American, his one start since 2015 was a loss. He gave up 2 home runs, walked 3, and only struck out 4 batters.

Next: Is Jeremy Jeffress the key to the bullpen?

And because Brent Suter has not performed well to start the season, if he isn’t replaced by the time he is supposed to start against the Cubs, he most likely will be back down in the minors by this time.