The San Diego Padres are 7 1/2 games out of the NL West, and are still in the middle of a rebuild. They have a few arms to deal, and the Milwaukee Brewers are in the market for pitching. Could the two teams work out a deal before the trade deadline?
The San Diego Padres have a several interesting bullpen arms that contending teams are preparing to compete for. However, the Milwaukee Brewers are in need of another starting pitcher for the stretch run. Do the Padres have anyone in the rotation worth dealing for?
Do you remember Tyson Ross?
San Diego Padres starter Tyson Ross posted a few really good seasons between 2013 and 2015. Then he got hurt, wound up with the Texas Rangers, and was essentially written off. Ross has rebuilt his value this year with a return to form in the Padres rotation.
Ross owns a 3.51 ERA in 14 starts this year. In 82 innings of work, Ross has racked up 82 strikeouts with only 29 walks and eight homers allowed. His velocity hasn’t recovered, but he’s making batters miss with a slider that is among the best in the league this year.
Are there any red flags with Ross?
Aside from the injury history, drop in velocity, and pitching half his games in San Diego? Yes?
Over the past few seasons, Ross has missed time with shoulder, ankle, and finger injuries. However, he appears fully healthy for now.
He’s only averaging 90.8 MPH on his fastball this year. That’s down about 1 MPH from last year, but Ross is only 31 years old. He’s been around the Majors since 2010, so he feels like he should be older, but he’s still technically in his ‘prime’ years. Isn’t 31 a little too young to see radar guns slowing down?
Ross has a 3.67 ERA at home this year, but a 3.40 ERA on the road. He’s managed to pitch better away from a pitcher’s park than in a pitcher’s park. That actually bodes well for Ross in Miller Park.
What about his pitch mix?
Ross throws a ton of sliders. He’s almost thrown as many fastballs as sliders this season. Ross hasn’t suffered elbow injuries, but pitchers who throw a ton of sliders are prone to developing problems in their elbow. The torque that a slider requires puts extra strain on the ligaments. If Ross has made it this far, he should be in the clear. But it’s still concerning.
How about his batted ball data?
Based on the results, Ross should have a much higher ERA. He’s giving up line drives at a 27.4% rate. That’s almost 10% higher than last year and 8% higher than his career average. This also shows up in his 40% hard contact rate.
Ross is probably going to get traded to a contender in July. The Milwaukee Brewers should steer clear, especially since there are other, better options. There are just too many concerns to trust Ross down the stretch. He may end up staying healthy, eating up innings, and keeping a contending team in the Wild Card race. He could also feel a twinge in his elbow, get lit up a few times, and then watch his new team miss the post season. There are simply too many risks involved for the Milwaukee Brewers to deal for Ross. He’s a stay away at almost any price.