Do you remember last year when Eric Thames started the season red-hot? Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Jesus Aguilar has been just about as awesome in June of 2018. How fantastic has Aguilar been? Let’s take a look…
There was a non-zero chance that Jesus Aguilar wouldn’t make the Milwaukee Brewers Opening Day roster coming out of Spring Training. Since then, Aguilar has proven to be worth his roster spot and then some. He struggled to get regular at-bats early on, but it’s now a surprise when he isn’t in the starting lineup. It’s really hard to imagine the Brewers’ offense without Aguilar in the heart of the order.
How hot is Jesus Aguilar?
Aguilar blasted his 19th homer of the season on Thursday evening against the Cincinnati Reds. He now owns a slash line of .313/.373/.645 to go along with 54 RBIs. 10 of his 19 homers have come in the month of June.
Coming into Thursday, Aguilar had a June OPS of 1.118. That comes with a 9.3% strikeout rate and a 25.3% walk rate. Also, his weighted on-base percentage in June was .453. That’s seventh in all of baseball. Paul Goldschmidt has the top slot with a .512 mark.
For the season, Aguilar had a 2.4 WAR heading into Thursday’s game. He’s earned 1.0 WAR of it in June alone.
Are you ready for the REALLY good news? The calendar doesn’t flip to June for two more days!
Should Aguilar make the All-Star team?
He’s currently tied for the National League lead in homers, has a 1.018 OPS, and 54 RBIs. Those numbers warrant inclusion on the roster, but there are other factors to consider.
Ryan Zimmerman and Anthony Rizzo are the two current top vote-getters for first base in the National League. One of them is sure to get voted onto the roster. Freddie Freeman and Goldschmidt are also having solid seasons, and name value carries a lot of weight when it comes to All-Star rosters. Between the starter getting voted in, and the positional depth in the National League, it’s hard to see a path to the All-Star game for Aguilar, even if he is worthy.
Is Aguilar’s success sustainable?
Over a 162-game season? An OPS over 1.000? Actually, yeah, he can. He probably won’t hit double digit homers in a month again, but that doesn’t mean he can’t produce.
He’s doing this with a .341 BABIP, which isn’t that far off from his .328 career average. His 22.2% career HR:FB rate isn’t that far off from his current ratio. This looks surprisingly sustainable.
Aguilar also doesn’t have a severe platoon split against left-handed or right-handed pitching. Teams really can’t stack the deck against him in the late innings with LOOGYs or ROOGYs. The numbers say that Aguilar can continue to put up numbers for the Milwaukee Brewers. It’s sad that Aguilar probably won’t get a chance in the All-Star game, but it’s more important that he produces for 50 or more games in August and September than one night in July.