Milwaukee Brewers: The Hypothetical Perfect Off-Season Plan

As the MLB offseason gets ready to kick into (hopefully) high gear, I got to thinking, “What would a perfect Milwaukee Brewers offseason look like?”. They’re very hard to achieve, but let’s give it a try.

If I were David Stearns, how would I approach this offseason for the Milwaukee Brewers?

This team is coming off a Game 7 loss in the NLCS, finishing one game shy of reaching the World Series. The core is in place, and there’s a defined window for the next four years where the Brewers are in a prime spot to win it’s first title.

The Brewers don’t need any major overhauls or significant changes. All they need is to plug a few holes and see if there are any upgrades out there.

The payroll is going to have to increase due to arbitration raises and the possibility of other additions to remain competitive next season. Given owner Mark Attanasio’s desire to win, increased revenue, and those raises, we’ll see the hypothetical payroll limit for next season at $130 million. Payroll projections courtesy of Roster Resource.

The Hypothetical Perfect Brewers Off-Season

Let Wade Miley, Gio Gonzalez, Curtis Granderson, Erik Kratz, Jordan Lyles, and Joakim Soria all walk

As you’ve probably seen me state multiple times by now, I’m not a believer in the long-term success of Wade Miley. His peripheral stats all point to a major decline in 2019, and now with the loss of pitching coach Derek Johnson, who brought Miley back into relevancy, there’s no reason for Miley to return.

Gonzalez was a nice addition towards the end, but he’ll look for a decent chunk of money on the open market and the Brewers need to find innings for the glut of young starters they currently have. Granderson was also a nice veteran add, but he’ll seek a job elsewhere this winter.

Kratz was a great story during the postseason, but he still doesn’t put up strong offensive numbers and is going to be 39 years old next season. The Brewers shouldn’t count on him for next year.

Lyles and Soria had their contract options declined and there’s little reason to see either of them back. Lyles doesn’t have a high ceiling and Soria didn’t pitch great with Milwaukee since being acquired.

Current Payroll Projection: $116.7 million

Find A Trade Partner For Jonathan Schoop

Even with the large arbitration figure for Schoop next year, I find it hard to believe he’ll be non-tendered and put on the open market for nothing. The Milwaukee Brewers cut Scooter Gennett loose for nothing and now everyone is upset because he’s good and the Brewers didn’t get anything for him.

Even with that being said, I don’t think Schoop will be back in Milwaukee next year. He simply struggled too much and will be owed too much money. That brings us to the next logical step, which is trading him.

He has a track record of being a good hitter but Milwaukee wasn’t a good fit for him. He can get a much needed change of scenery and the Brewers can cut their losses and move on from what will go down as one of Stearns’ worst trades during his tenure.

If Schoop can bring back a major league reliever or a couple minor league prospects, I think that will be a decent return for a player coming off such a terrible season.

Current Payroll Projection: $106.6 million

Find A Trade Partner For Eric Thames

Thames is due $6 million next season and has a club option for $7.5 million in 2020. Considering Thames is a bench player that doesn’t provide much defensive value, it’s probably time to trade him off the Milwaukee Brewers.

What is he really worth in a return? Not much, probably. His numbers regressed hard in 2018 but he still showed that same power he did in 2017.

A move to the American League would be best for Thames and the Brewers as clearing his $6 million salary can give David Stearns a little more wiggle room in free agency.

Current Payroll Projection: $100.6 million

Re-Sign Mike Moustakas To A 1 Year/$10 million Deal

The only way Moustakas accepts a one year deal at a low enough salary for the Brewers to get him is if he lasts on the market into late January/early February. If he’s still out there, I say bring him back.

After trading Jonathan Schoop, the Milwaukee Brewers will need a bridge to Mauricio Dubon/Keston Hiura at second base. By re-signing Moustakas to a one year deal, Travis Shaw can continue to play at second base until Hiura is ready.

Dubon probably could be ready to assume full-time second base duties in 2019, but since he’s coming off an ACL tear, expectations for him are still up in the air.

Shaw and Dubon might split time at second if Shaw’s platoon splits from 2018 still persist into 2019. Also, Shaw could spend more time at first base next year with Thames hypothetically off the roster. Jesus Aguilar struggled in the second half and might need the occasional day off.

Moustakas has a lot of power, but his low OBP will worry a lot of teams this winter who could look to sign him to a multi-year deal. The Brewers like him and his lefty bat fits Miller Park well. I’m sure he’d be open to a reunion.

However, Moustakas might have also learned from last year’s free agency debacle that he should take one of the early multi-year offers if there are any instead of waiting for a better deal.

This is a reunion that’s tough to see happening, but it could be ideal for the Brewers.

Current Payroll Projection: $110.6 million

Trade Zach Davies and/or Chase Anderson

These two were supposed to be the core of the 2018 rotation. Instead, Davies missed three months with various injuries and Anderson regressed so much they skipped his final two starts. Both were left off the initial postseason rosters in favor of the young prospects. I think that’s a telling sign.

Davies, despite coming off the injury plagued season, will have the higher trade value of the two. He’s still only 25 years old, he’s entering his first year of arbitration, and is under control through 2021. He can pitch like a No. 3 starter at times, but is normally a No. 4 starter type. He won’t gain a big return, but he’ll be worth something in a trade.

Anderson signed an extension prior to the 2018 season, with two years guaranteed and two option years. He’s due $6.5 million next year and the two options are worth $8.5 million and $9.5 million respectively. I don’t like extreme fly ball pitchers in Miller Park because they don’t do well. See Marco Estrada for example. Anderson is a fly ball pitcher and his 30 home runs allowed in 30 starts, 22 of which were given up in Miller Park, is a consequence of that.

Ideally, I’d like to trade both, even though it might be tough to see Stearns parting with both starting pitchers. These two are the experienced arms in this current rotation, but that could change with a free agent addition.

Current Payroll Projection: $101.7 million

Sign Dallas Keuchel To A 4 Year/$75 million Deal

How much money Keuchel signs for will depend on how his market plays out and what the bidding war gets up to. Jim Bowden of The Athletic (subscription required) projected Keuchel to command a deal around four years and similar to this much money. He also listed the Brewers among the best fits for Keuchel.

The Milwaukee Brewers have lacked a lock-down left handed starting pitcher for several years now and don’t currently possess many in the organization. But the addition of Keuchel will change that. The Brewers need an experienced front of the rotation arm to depend on in the playoffs and Keuchel is just that. He holds a 3.31 ERA in the postseason in his career.

Keuchel is not only left handed, he’s also a dominant ground ball pitcher. The majority of the outs he gets are on the ground, which is exactly what a pitcher in a fly ball friendly ballpark needs to do. He doesn’t strike out many and he doesn’t blow hitters away with his fastball, but he’s proven to be an impactful pitcher for several years now.

At 30 years old, Keuchel has been around awhile, but a four year deal isn’t an egregious contract length for a player of his age.

Current Payroll Projection: $120.45 million