The Milwaukee Brewers are likely to be interested in acquiring Seattle Mariners lefty James Paxton. With the market allegedly moving quickly, what could a trade package for Paxton look like?
Very little has been reported about the potential trade packages being put together for James Paxton. None of the veteran baseball reporters have connected any names or any teams to Paxton, which includes the Milwaukee Brewers.
Really all that we know is that Paxton is on the trade block and that there are several teams interested.
What’s Paxton’s Contract Situation?
Paxton is under team control for the next two seasons through arbitration. He’s projected to earn $9 million in arbitration in 2019 and will become a free agent after the 2020 season.
For a left handed pitcher who has a career 3.42 ERA in six seasons, that’s not bad.
What Could A Trade Package Look Like?
Here is my estimation of what a Milwaukee Brewers trade for James Paxton would entail.
Corey Ray is the Brewers top outfield prospect who just had a breakout season in the minor leagues. His strikeout issues are still pronounced, but he’s finally finding his power and is a good power-speed threat that’s about a year away from the big leagues.
Brandon Woodruff came on strong during the latter part of the 2018 season and during the postseason as well. He’s got a good chance to become a solid middle of the rotation arm for years to come. But if the Brewers acquire Paxton there’s likely no room for Woodruff in that rotation next year.
This is a high price to pay for the Milwaukee Brewers, but there’s a bidding war going on right now for Paxton. If the Brewers are to win it, they’ll likely need to surrender a package like this.
I’m not saying the Brewers should give up this much for Paxton or that they need to do everything they can to acquire Paxton. I’m merely suggesting this is what it would likely cost.
Pitchers like Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta are likely off-limits in trade discussions this winter, unless it’s for someone ridiculous like Corey Kluber or Jacob DeGrom. Woodruff is lower on the totem pole I believe and that makes him more expendable.
Corey Ray probably isn’t going to have any higher trade value than he has right now since he’s coming off a great season. With Ryan Braun under contract for two more years and Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain under control for four years, it’s difficult to see Ray cracking the Brewers starting outfield anytime soon.
I think this is a fair trade that works for both sides. The Mariners get the infusion of young, cheap talent they need and the Brewers get the pitcher they need while not giving up anyone who’s a key part of the future of the club.
The Milwaukee Brewers will probably be a part of several trade discussions this offseason, and James Paxton is just the first.