Milwaukee Brewers History of SP Additions: Are Starters Worth It?

It seems that nearly every offseason, the thing at the top of every Milwaukee Brewers fan’s wish list is a shiny new starter. This year is no exception, in spite of a stellar 2018 for the Crew.

The trouble with wanting a top tier starter is that starting pitchers don’t exactly come cheap, a lesson that front offices in Milwaukee have experienced more than once. The astuteness of the Milwaukee Brewers pursuing a top of the line starter heading into 2019 is up for debate.

Certainly the pitching was much better in 2018 than years prior, with the whole staff accumulating a 3.73 ERA. Much of that is attributable to the stellar bullpen, but legitimate starting prospects have emerged. Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta all made known that they are Major League ready, though only Peralta made his mark as a starter.

Therefore, it’s worth a look back at some of the expensive acquisitions Milwaukee has shelled out for, in cash or in prospects, to fill a hole in their rotation. You can judge for yourself who was worth it and who was not.

Matt Garza, Free Agent, 4-Years/$50 Million

Garza was coming off of a 2013 season in which he went 10-6 with a 3.82 ERA in time split between the Cubs and Rangers. This was pretty much exactly in line with his career line as well, as the at the time 30-year-old had a career 67-67 record and a 3.84 ERA. While an innings eater from 2008-2011 in Tampa Bay and Chicago, Garza had been limited to 18 starts in 2012 and 24 in 2013 by injury.

Apparently that spoke well to then-Milwaukee Brewers GM Doug Melvin, as he signed Garza to a four-year, $50 million contract, with a vesting option for a fifth year that thankfully did not come to fruition.

Garza started out okay in 2014, maintaining his .500 career mark a 3.64 ERA. His FIP came down as well, to 3.54 from 3.88 the year prior. However his innings total continued its trend away from his workhorse days in Tampa Bay, as he logged a respectable but far from remarkable 163.1 innings.

This was the year the Brewers absolutely collapsed down the stretch to finish with the rare disappointing season winning season in Milwaukee at 82-80. Garza pitched just 23 innings across five starts from August through October, missing time due to a left oblique strain.

For the next two years it was a sharp downhill for Garza and the Brewers. Garza’s WHIP topped 1.50 in 2015, the first time since his two partial seasons with the Twins to begin his career, and again in 2016. His ERAs of 5.63 and 4.51 matched dismal statistic for dismal statistic, as he went a combined 12-22.

The Brewers fell back to losing ways as well, in part burdened by Garza’s high and underserved salary, finishing fourth in the Central both years. Garza finished off his contract in 2017 with a 4.94 ERA in 114.2 innings, finishing with 3.5 walks per nine innings for the second time with the Crew.

It was with a huge sigh of relief that the Crew bid goodbye to this contract. David Stearns quickly put that money and other salary relief to good use, bringing in Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich, and Jhoulys Chacin to bring the Crew within one game of the World Series.

Zack Greinke, Trade with Kansas City – Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffress, and Jake Odorizzi

Greinke had been somewhat inconsistent as a starter in Kansas City, but even on his off-years he was far better than Garza. Though he was coming off a 2010 with a losing record and a 4.17 ERA, that was held down by a 3.34 FIP and 181 strikeouts. That’s to say nothing of the phenomenal 2009 which saw him win the AL Cy Young Award on the strength of a 2.16 ERA.

Greinke helped propel the Crew to the NLCS in 2011, with 201 strikeouts in just 181.2 innings and a 16-6 record. But for all that the Brewers gave up, Greinke didn’t last two seasons in Milwaukee before the steeply declining Crew traded him to the Angels for Jean Segura, Johnny Hellweg, and Ariel Peña. Hellweg and Peña were below replacement players in brief stints for Milwaukee. Segura accumulated 5.2 WAR and a 2013 All-Star nod before departing after two harsh drop off years.

The issue with this acquisition is not money or poor performances from Greinke, it is what the Brewers gave up in prospects to get him. Jeffress returned to the Crew after some unremarkable time in Kansas City and Toronto, but as for the rest, they have accumulated far more than Greinke’s 3.9 WAR in Milwaukee.

Odorizzi sports career marks of a 3.95 ERA and 4.22 FIP. While he has a career 47-48 record, that’s largely attributable to his having played for a series of poor Rays and Twins teams. He’s accumulated 9.6 career WAR since leaving the Brewers system, including two seasons of more than 3 WAR.

Escobar would not have fixed the 2018 Brewers offensive struggles at shortstop, but he’s shown some brilliance in eight up and down years for the Royals accumulating 9.3 WAR, a Gold Glove and an All Star appearance (both in 2015).

Cain, of course, should be the focal point of any deconstruction of the Greinke trade. Known for his glove as much, if not more than, his hitting, Cain pulled down a 2015 All-Star appearance and 25.1 WAR in Kansas City. This by itself vastly outpaces the totals both for Greinke’s tenure in Milwaukee, and the production of what the Crew got for the pitcher in the Angels trade. Cain’s per 162 game averages for parts of seven years with the Royals were 174 hits and 28 stolen bases, to go with a .289/.342/.421 slash line.

The cautionary tale here is evident in the Royals success. This trade built the team that got the Royals to two World Series, winning one in 2015

CC Sabathia, Trade with Cleveland – Rob Bryson, Zach Jackson, Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley

There’s little debate that this trade was worth it for Milwaukee’s long-suffering fan base, as 2007 AL Cy Young winner CC Sabathia almost single-handedly pushed the Brewers to the 2008 NL Wild Card and their first playoff appearance since 1982.

That doesn’t mean it wasn’t a costly trade though. Rob Bryson never made the majors, while Zach Jackson and centerpiece of the trade, Matt Laporta, both finished their short careers in Cleveland as replacement players.

Instead, it is player to be named later Michael Brantley who makes the Milwaukee faithful wince and wonder. Brantley has accumulated three All-Star selections and 22.7 WAR in ten years in Cleveland, even as injury plagued as he has been. His slash line from 2013 on of .306/.363/.458 compare pretty favorably to post-Biogenesis Ryan Braun.

Sabathia was a miracle worker for an ’08 Brewers squad desperately in need of one. His seven complete games and three shutouts in 17 starts stands little chance of being repeated. In just half a season in the National League he did enough to finish fifth in the Cy Young race and sixth in MVP voting. But there’s still…

Jeff Suppan, Free Agent, 4-Years/$42 Million

There’s just something about Doug Melvin, an average-at-best free-agent starter, and four-year contracts. Jeff Suppan was a big name pretty much only because of his 2006 NLCS MVP performance for the hated St. Louis Cardinals. The 31-year-old’s 0.60 ERA in 15 NLCS innings was far from a representative sample.

For his career in the regular season, Suppan had a 4.60 ERA and a WHIP much closer to Garza’s awful years than anyone’s good years. Suppan had never topped 130 strikeouts in a year, though he had averaged more than 204 innings pitched for the past eight seasons.

Suppan would go 22-22 across 2007-08, following that up by going 7-14 in 32 starts and some bullpen work the next two seasons. He couldn’t perform in the 2008 playoff either, which the Brewers reached despite his inflated salary. His elimination game start against the Phillies ended after just three innings, as he served up five runs on three homers. His ERA climbed every year of his contract, settling at 7.84 in 2010 before the Brewers finally cut him loose on June 7. He accumulated -0.8 WAR across four seasons, finishing below replacement each of the last three.

The worst part is the Brewers paid him millions of dollars to play the second half of 2010 on the cheap for the Cardinals, where he returned to a sort of form, achieving a 3.84 ERA in his return to St. Louis. The $2 million owed on his 2011 buyout wasn’t easy to swallow either.