Milwaukee Brewers: How MLB Rule Changes Will Impact The Crew

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LOS ANGELES, CA – OCTOBER 16: Pitcher Gio Gonzalez #47 of the Milwaukee Brewers pitches during the first inning of Game Four of the National League Championship Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on October 16, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

Major League Baseball’s new rule changes for 2019 and 2020 are going to make the jobs of small market teams like the Milwaukee Brewers much harder.

While roster size and pitching rule changes are delayed until 2020, the elimination of the waiver trade deadline would, by itself, have made the Milwaukee Brewers’ magical run to the National League Central crown just about impossible.

Along with a host of other rule changes, baseball is going to be changed as we know it.

A hard July 31st trade Deadline eliminates the Brewers chance to add stretch-run talent on the cheap.

Gio Gonzalez, Xavier Cedeno, and Curtis Granderson accounted for 1.3 WAR in the final month of the 2018 season. Gonzalez’ impact was the biggest, as he flew into Milwaukee like a buzzsaw, putting up a 2.13 ERA and a 3-0 record in five starts. This included the win in game 162 against the Tigers to force the tiebreaker game.

These rental players came to the Crew far cheaper than any mid-season acquisition that the league would seek to force on teams. Smaller markets find themselves on a better playing field for adding talent late in the season. They don’t have to take on onerous contracts and they don’t have to bet the farm system on these rentals.

The chances of landing a Madison Bumgarner in a trade on the cheap just fell dramatically for 2019, as the Giants are sure to ask for much more for half a season of their World Series MVP then they would for one month. Even trades for lower level players will end up being much more expensive. David Stearns has yet to make the sort of future mortgaging moves that predecessor Doug Melvin made in playoff pushes. He’s unlikely to start making them now.

Large market teams are much more capable of absorbing the fallout of dealing away cheap young talent, or taking on massive financial commitments. The elimination of waiver trades is another shift in favor of clubs like the Dodgers and Yankees, and away from the Brewers and Athletics.

Going into 2020, the system targets smaller market clubs even more.

LOS ANGELES, CA – OCTOBER 15: Manager Craig Counsell #30 of the Milwaukee Brewers looks on from the dugout during the first inning of Game Three of the National League Championship Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on October 15, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images) /

A year-long 26-man roster will mean higher demand for players, and higher prices as a result.

The Crew can ill afford to have to fill another roster spot, but the Red Sox won’t bat an eyelash at having to shell out millions more for the 26th player.

The average MLB salary in 2018 was $4.1 million. The Brewers are setting record payroll marks, hitting $107 million last year and adding $20 million to that for 2019. Even still, ten players will make more than $4.1 million for Milwaukee in 2019.

The Yankees have that many making over $10 million, with the Cubs close behind at nine. Big market teams won’t hesitate to add another premium player, but the Brewers will likely have to fill that place with a whatever Triple-A depth they’re allowed to maintain. It would allow for less shuttling of players between Milwaukee and Triple-A with that extra depth on the big league roster.

Which brings us to the move back from a 10-day injured list back to a 15-day list.

No team utilized their bullpen more effectively or creatively than the Brewers. A veritable conga line of pitchers paraded back and forth from Colorado Springs to Milwaukee, ensuring well-rested pitchers were always at Craig Counsell’s disposal. This move will not eliminate that, but it will certainly make David Stearns job harder he balances the need for fresh arms against the availability of players in the later days of an injured list stint.

The ability of the 2019 Crew to yo-yo players such as Adrian Houser, Freddy Peralta, Josh Tomlin, and Jake Petricka will fall considerably going into the new decade. This will result in more tired bullpen arms. With Josh Hader really needing a day or two off between appearances, that flexibility is crucial to teams like the Brewers who rely so heavily on their bullpen.

Stearns simply won’t, and really can’t, shell out for the dominant inning eating starter. Nor should he, with the success Counsell has had managing the bullpen. Wealthy teams can buy the talent, smaller market teams drive baseball’s innovation, and are being punished for it now.

MILWAUKEE, WI – JUNE 21: Dan Jennings #38 and Manny Pina #9 of the Milwaukee Brewers celebrate after beating the St. Louis Cardinals 11-3 at Miller Park on June 21, 2018 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /

The move to curtail the September roster call-ups will also hurt

In 2020 the September rosters will only expand to 28 players, rather than the current maximum of 40. Thus the additions of Gonzalez, Cedeno, and Granderson (with Nick Franklin being sent down) would have already maxed out the Brewers’ roster expansion. While 40 was a little ridiculous, cutting down to 28 is too far.

MLB would have missed out on some amazing September (and postseason) performances.

Brandon Woodruff notched 16 strikeouts in 12.1 innings, with a 0.73 ERA in the last month of the regular season. He went on to belt a homer off of Clayton Kershaw in the NLCS and throw 12.1 innings of 2.19 ERA ball in the postseason.

Domingo Santana returned and dominated as a pinch-hitter, slashing .409/.458/.909 in 22 at bats, with six of his nine hits going for extra bases.

Most importantly though, Corey Knebel had managed to right himself in the minors, and returned to go 2-0 with two saves, six holds, and a pristine 0.00 ERA. He did not give up a single run in 16.1 September innings, notching 33 strikeouts against just three walks.

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Adding Peralta and the other aforementioned fringe pitchers to the mix in September might have ended up being the difference between the Cardinals and the Brewers in the playoffs. Certainly the Crew will be deprived of developmental opportunities for their young talent, and the information base for building a playoff roster will be substantially decreased.

That depth is something Stearns has built in earnest the last few years. The expanded rosters reward clubs for building deep farm systems. This might be something wealthier teams can afford to ignore, but smaller market teams need any advantage they can get.

Lefty specialists will be killed off by the three-batter minimum coming to baseball in 2020.

Pitchers would be required to face at least three-batters or finish the half-inning, whichever happened first. Two-thirds of Cedeno’s appearances as a Brewer saw him face only one or two batters. Dan Jenning’s “start” against Matt Carpenter and the Cardinals also becomes impermissible under this new rule.

We don’t quite know how Counsell plans to use off-season acquisition Alex Claudio. He’s averaged more than an inning per game in his career thus far, but he may end up the only Brewers lefty bullpen option not named Josh Hader. That and the lock-down bullpen of innings 7-9 would make it more likely Claudio performs a similar role to Jennings and Cedeno in 2018. His value when the rule change takes effect in 2020 might fall dramatically as a result, both to the Brewers and teams that might trade for him.

Had the incoming rules been in place in 2018, there likely would have been no division title, and no NLCS appearance for the Milwaukee Brewers. Going forward, they are going to make it a lot harder for the Crew and other small market teams to succeed in a game where small margins mean everything.

Next. 5 Bold Predictions For The 2019 Season. dark

The negotiations between the Commissioner’s office and the MLBPA have reached an agreement, which is great for avoiding a future lockout, but it doesn’t look like it’s one that will be beneficial to the Milwaukee Brewers.

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