Milwaukee Brewers: Tough Decisions Lie Ahead

The Milwaukee Brewers starting rotation is becoming a major concern as the season progresses.

The Milwaukee Brewers have been burned by their starting rotation during this recent stretch of games. Though it’s not the first time this has happened this season, this most recent run has been another of level of awful.

Milwaukee have gotten just one quality start over their past ten games. That start came in the second game of their west coast road-trip in Houston, when Brandon Woodruff went seven innings while giving up three earned runs.

Woodruff has been the only starter during this ten game run who’s been able to complete at least six innings in either of his starts. Every other Brewers starter over the past two weeks has failed to go more than five innings.

Of those beyond Woodruff who’ve made it through five innings, they’ve given up a ton of runs while doing so. Chase Anderson gave up six earned runs in five innings on Friday night. The night before that, Jimmy Nelson gave up five runs, all earned, in five innings. Both gave up three runs in the opening inning of those games.

Zach Davies went five innings last Friday night against the San Francisco Giants while giving up three earned runs. That was the only start out of three five inning non-Woodruff starts where a Brewers starter kept them in the game.

Every other start during this stretch, five out of ten, saw a Milwaukee Brewers starter go less than five innings in their start. Because of that, the Brewers have had to lean on an already taxed and scuffling bullpen on a nightly basis. The results have been predictably bad.

Why there’s cause for concern

Milwaukee’s starting rotation is becoming a real concern as the season unfolds. Shortly after the signing of Gio Gonzalez, it looked like the Brewers had three serviceable starters in their rotation in Davies, Gonzalez, and Woodruff, with at least passable options and depth in their other two rotation spots, especially with Jimmy Nelson coming back from injury.

Things, however, have not worked out as planned. Jhoulys Chacin continues to scuffle in a major way, and has shown no signs of breaking out his funk anytime soon. The Brewers are quickly approaching the point where he’ll either need to be moved to the bullpen, or designated for assignment if he doesn’t begin to show improvement.

Nelson’s three starts in his return to the rotation did not go well either. Control issues, stemming from his struggles with his mechanics, saw his starts go poorly. It appears his chance to hold down a spot in the rotation has passed for the foreseeable future.

Anderson has been okay since returning to the rotation earlier this year, but he’s nothing more than a fifth starter, at best. He continues to have way too many volatile starts where high pitch counts are taking him out games after four or five innings. This is a major liability, especially in a rotation where several of the guys around him aren’t going deep in games too.

Even Davies, who’s arguably been their best starter, is a worry. His advanced stats suggest that he’s due for some major regression in the coming weeks. This may be something that’s already starting to happen, and will only continue to add to the volatility in their starting rotation.

The Milwaukee Brewers lack the depth they expected to have entering the season too. Corbin Burnes was an unmitigated disaster in the rotation, and his tenure in the pen wasn’t much better. He was just sent down to Triple A because of this.

Freddy Peralta has been okay between the rotation and the pen, but his inability to go deep into starts most of the time is why he sits on the outside of the rotation as well. This makes the prospect of moving him back into the rotation full-time unappealing, especially when he’s been more consistent out of the pen as a long-reliever.

Aaron Wilkerson is their only in-house option that they have remaining. He’s been excellent in Triple A this season, but he’s still a long-shot to pan out given that he’s basically been a career minor-leaguer. This leaves Milwaukee in a dangerous position.

What can help

Gonzalez returning from the IL soon will help to stabilize their rotation, at least a little bit. He was excellent before arm fatigue saw him miss several starts.

Woodruff and Davies should continue to give the Milwaukee Brewers serviceable starts too, even if the latter is due for regression after his hot start. This gives the team three decent options to work around.

It’s still likely, however, that the Brewers will have to explore the trade market. According to rumors this week, this is something they’ve already begun to do with Matthew Boyd of the Detroit Tigers being a possible target.

Any move like this, though, would require trading top prospects from an already shallow farm system. The Brewers lack the assets to win a bidding war if other contending teams like the Atlanta Braves or the Reds get involved too. This makes the possibility of acquiring an impact talent very difficult, if not impossible to pull off.

Regardless, the Milwaukee Brewers are going to need to improve their rotation somehow if they want reach consecutive post-seasons for the first time since 1981-82. This stretch of games has been a jolting reminder of how just how fragile their starting rotation is.

The Milwaukee Brewers continue to lack consistent late-inning guys.

Another issue that’s plagued the Milwaukee Brewers during this recent stretch has been their bullpen. Partly due to poor quality, and partly due to their starters failing to go deep in games, the Brewers pen has been quite unreliable at times.

During this Stretch

Milwaukee’s bullpen has given up runs in six of their past ten games. Most of the games where they’ve given up runs have been close too.

The Brewers were down six to one entering the bottom of the fifth inning on Friday night. They got three runs from the middle of their line-up that inning to get the lead down to a manageable two runs at 6-4.

Milwaukee’s subsequent bullpen arms came in and put the game out of reach. Junior Guerra was pulled with the bases loaded in the seventh inning. Burnes came in and preceded to give up all three runners he inherited from Guerra that inning, making the score 9-4. Burnes would return for the following inning, only to give up two more runs of his own on a two run home-run by Yasiel Puig. By the time he was pulled, Milwaukee faced in an insurmountable 11-4 deficit in the eighth inning.

This past Wednesday afternoon, Jeremy Jeffress came into an eighth inning where the Brewers had just come back from a two run deficit in the top of the inning to lead 7-5. Jeffress preceded to give up an infield single, a walk, then a three run home-run to Franmil Reyes which gave the Padres an 8-7 lead which they held down to complete a sweep.

Milwaukee had an nearly identical situation unfold in both of their losses against the San Francisco Giants too last weekend.

Why there’s concern

Milwaukee knew coming into the season that their bullpen would not be what it was last season, especially in the later innings. With Corey Knebel out for the season due to an elbow injury, and Jeffress starting the year on the IL too due an injury of his own, the Milwaukee Brewers were going to be without two of their elite options for a big part of the season.

Ever since opening day, the Brewers have had issues consistently bridging the gap between their starters and their elite closer, Josh Hader. Jeffress coming back was supposed to alleviate some of that, but he’s largely been a shadow of his former self so far this season.

Milwaukee has lacked options beyond Jeffress as well. Alex Claudio has been an unmitigated disaster this season. Whenever he’s come into a close game, he’s struggled to have a clean inning. The only player with a worse WAR on the team right now among their pitchers is Burnes. (-0.4 compared to Claudio’s -0.3).

Guerra has been okay in the late innings, but’s he’s often struggled with his own command issues in these spots too. His ERA sits near a four, and his walks per nine is approaching a four as well, both of which are poor for a set-up man.

Matt Albers has been much better than he was in the second half of last season, but he’s still far away from the elite late-inning option that he was several years ago. As his 4.06 ERA and his 3.98 FIP suggest, he’s yet another mediocre option in a mediocre to bad bullpen.

Burnes, as was already discussed in the previous slide, was a complete disaster in the pen too and is no longer on the roster because of it. He was another player who Milwaukee relied on late in games last season, but they haven’t gotten much out of this year.

With these five guys playing at a mediocre or worse level, Milwaukee have lacked any semblance of consistency out of their bullpen. That’s a big deal, especially when you consider that their elite pen was what got them within a game of making the World Series just a few months ago.

Without the same strength and depth, the Milwaukee Brewers haven’t been able to bridge the gap as well to their closer as they did last year. This has had devastating consequences, at times, on the team.

How they can improve

The Brewers will have to explore the trade market to improve their bullpen.

Most of their in-house options aren’t working, nor do most  of them have good underlying numbers to suggest a dramatic improvement is coming.

The only notable exception to this is Adrian Houser. Houser has been exceptional when given the opportunity to pitch out of the pen this year. He’s averaging 10.27 strikeouts per nine innings entering play on Saturday with a 2.35 ERA. His FIP of 3.43, and xFIP of 3.17, suggests his production is sustainable too.

Houser, though, will not be able solve all of their problems. Outside help is needed.

Several good relievers should be available. Former Brewer, Will Smith, would be their best option. He would give the Brewers another elite lefty-bullpen arm who’s also capable of closing games.

Milwaukee could also explore getting Ian Kennedy from the Royals. He’s having an excellent season out of the pen, and would be a great option if Kansas City is willing to eat most of the money remaining on his contract.

There have also been rumors that the Padres may move their elite bullpen arm, Kirby Yates, in the coming weeks. His acquisition cost, however, would be the highest of any bullpen arm on the market which may make a trade for him highly unlikely.

Bullpen arms are easier to get at a lower cost than starters. The Brewers could try to reconstruct their model from last season by loading up on elite bullpen arms to help compensate for their shorter starts. This may be the ideal and most realistic option for them to improve.

Regardless of how many arms they target, though, the Milwaukee Brewers need to improve their bullpen fast. If they don’t, they’re not going to be a real contender this season.

With several of their bats struggling recently, the Milwaukee Brewers may have to make some difficult roster decisions.

The final area where the Milwaukee Brewers have been struggling a bit recently is in their batting line-up.

What’s going on

Milwaukee has several players in their line-up right now that are mired in horrible slumps.

Up until the past couple of games, Lorenzo Cain was struggling to hit. His struggles were leaving the Brewers without someone who could get on base consistently ahead of their elite slugging outfielder, Christian Yelich.

Several others, however, have been struggling even more than he has.

Orlando Arcia entered play on Saturday mired in a 3-for-24 slump over his past seven games, and a 9-53 slump over his past 15. Arcia had gotten just one hit in his 24 at-bats preceding their home-stand against the Reds ( he went 3-8 in the opening two games of the series).

Utility man, Hernan Perez, got several starts on the road-trip because the Milwaukee Brewers were facing several left-handed starters which are the types of players he excels at hitting against. He has gone just 2-for-21 in his past seven games, and has hit just .205 over his past 15 games entering play on Saturday.

Ben Gamel, the Brewers fourth outfielder, is having issues too. He’s hit just .182 in his past seven appearances and is hitting just .198 over his past 81 at-bats.

What’s most concerning, though, is that two of the Brewers key bats from last season continue to struggle too.

Travis Shaw has gone just three for his past 17 over his last seven appearances. Since returning from the IL on June 4th, he’s hit .184 with an OPS of just .600, barely an improvement on what he was providing before that break and well-below the league average.

Jesus Aguilar has shown some improvement, going 3-for-11 in his past seven appearances and 7-for-28 in his past 15. However, he continues to barely get playing time due to a hot streak from Eric Thames.

Why there’s reason to worry

With several of their bats scuffling, Milwaukee has lacked consistency in their line-up. All-star caliber seasons from Yelich, Yasmani Grandal, and Mike Moustakas, have helped the Milwakee Brewers maintain one of the better offenses in baseball. However, they can only carry the offense for so long.

As we saw three times this week, the Brewers scored zero, one, and one in three of their games this week, it is difficult for an offense to score runs every night if a third or more of their line-up can’t hit or get on base consistently.

Essentially a third of their starting line-up is mired in a major drought. Arcia, Cain, and Shaw are regular every day starters who are hitting well-below average right now. The Brewers have few good bench options to go to in their place either with Perez, Gamel, and Aguilar struggling as well.

Several of the players mired in hitting slumps are struggling in the field too. This has helped contribute to some of the lopsided scorelines the Brewers have conceded over the past week and a half.

So long as several of their bats continue to produce next to nothing of offense, Milwaukee will struggle to score runs on a night-to-night basis. That’s a big deal for a team that’s struggling to get good pitching out of anyone and is not preventing runs well.

How They Can Improve

Unlike the starting rotation or bullpen, Milwaukee has in-house options to immediately improve their roster.

Their top prospect, Keston Hiura, has continued to be a lights out hitter since getting sent down to Triple A for the returning Shaw several weeks ago. Calling him back up to play regularly at second base would immediately provide the Milwaukee Brewers with at least another average or better bat in the line-up every day.

Another one of their top prospects, Mauricio Dubon, is having a career year in Triple A. Given his ability to hit for a high average, to steal bases, and play multiple positions well (he can play second, shortstop, and center field), he could provide the Brewers with another utility player that can be an alternative to Arcia playing every day.

To make room for these guys, however, the Brewers will have to make some difficult roster decisions. There aren’t a ton of at-bats to go around in a line-up where five players are essentially a lock to play almost every day (Ryan Braun, Cain, Grandal, Moustakas, and Yelich). The Brewers could more send a reliever down to give one or both of these guys a chance, but the lack of available spots in the line-up makes regular playing time hard to come by.

The Milwaukee Brewers could look to the trade market.too, but doing so seems unnecessary. Unless there’s a cheap option that plugs an immediate hole on the roster. the Brewers can ill afford to use major assets on a bat when they need them to get the pitchers that they need.

Possible Roster Moves

The easiest option Milwaukee has is to use a minor league option on Shaw. Doing this to call Hiura back up would allow Milwaukee to move Moustakas back to his natural position at third base while freeing up regular playing time for Hiura at second. Given that Shaw has shown few signs of breaking out of his slump in this prolonged run of games since his return from the IL, this would probably be a wise and ultimately necessary move.

The Brewers could also designate Aguilar for assignment to clear a roster spot. Given that Thames has outplayed Aguilar by quite a bit this year, Aguilar has found playing time hard to come by. Since he’s limited to first base only, the Milwaukee Brewers have no other position to move him to in order to get him more regular at-bats.

DFA’ing Aguilar, however, has complications. First, removing him from the roster doesn’t free up playing time for Hiura at second. Milwaukee would have to be much more aggressive at rotating players than they have been so far this year to get everyone enough at-bats. Manager Craig Counsell has shown reluctance to do this, especially with guys who are hitting really well.

Second, by letting him go, the Brewers would be losing a player with two more years of team control at first than Thames. This would complicate their long-term picture at first base.

Aguilar would also be claimed on waivers if he was DFA’d. Given that he was a good hitter in each of the preceding two seasons, there’s a good chance that he’ll return to being a decent offensive player if he gets regular at-bats somewhere else. Milwaukee were burned by this once before when they let go of Scooter Gennett. They’ll be reluctant to put themselves in a position where that could happen again.

Whatever they decide to do, however, the Brewers need to get Hiura back up. He’s too good to be spending significant time in Triple A, especially when he’s already shown he can hit major league pitching well. Moving Shaw down until he finds his hitting stroke seems like the best move for everyone involved, especially since it would buy Aguilar just a bit more time to find his bat.

Despite this bad run, there is reason to hope.

If the Milwaukee Brewers do stand pat,  it’s likely that they’ll still be a contender to make the playoffs. However, as this recent stretch has shown, there’s a real danger they won’t make it unless they can fix several of the weaknesses on their team. They’re not a true title contender either with their current roster.

The Milwaukee Brewers are a bat or two, a starting pitcher, and two bullpen arms away from being a real contender for a title. The offense could be addressed internally. Their pitching cannot.

It’s up to David Stearns to do everything in his power to make sure the Milwaukee Brewers d everything they can to improve in the coming days and weeks. Their 2019 season may depend on it.