Milwaukee Brewers: Which Starting Pitchers Could Move At the Deadline

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - JULY 04: Matthew Boyd #48 of the Detroit Tigers pitches against the Chicago White Sox during the second inning at Guaranteed Rate Field on July 04, 2019 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images)
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - JULY 04: Matthew Boyd #48 of the Detroit Tigers pitches against the Chicago White Sox during the second inning at Guaranteed Rate Field on July 04, 2019 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images)
1 of 6
Next

In the first of our series previewing the MLB trade deadline, what top tier starting pitchers are likely to be available for the Milwaukee Brewers to target?

Trade season is officially upon us!

With the All-Star break coming up this week, it’s time to start looking ahead to who might be available ahead of the July 31st trade deadline.

The Milwaukee Brewers figure to be major players in the market in coming days and weeks. Though they’ve been scuffling over the past month, the Brewers are still well-positioned to contend for a playoff spot, and they should figure in that race until the final days of the season. That heavily suggests that the team will be proactive in looking for ways to supplement and upgrade on their current roster.

With that said, who might the Milwaukee Brewers target on the trade market? Which players are likely to be available and could provide the Brewers a boost at their positions of need?

In the first of our series previewing the rapidly approaching MLB trade deadline, we’ll take a look at the starting pitching market, starting with the top-tier starting pitchers that are likely to be available this summer.

For the purposes of these articles, I’ve divided potential targets into three tiers based on their potential contributions to the team both in the short-term and long-term, with more of an emphasis towards their immediate ability to help the team: Top-Tier, Solid Options, and Depth. Each article will look at the guys at a position that fit into one of these categories.

Each article is also divided into two sub-categories: 1) those likely to be available at the deadline in that tier, and 2) those unlikely to be moved right now, but who could become available depending on how things play out over the coming weeks.

All of this designed to give you, the reader, the best sense of who’s realistically available and what their potential value can be to the team.

Without further ado, let’s take a look at who the top-tier options are likely to be on the starting pitching market.

1) Matthew Boyd, LHP, Detroit Tigers

The top-tier talent that is likely to be available on the starting pitching market in the coming weeks is few in number. There are, however, a few guys that are realistic options and could be significant upgrades to the Milwaukee Brewers rotation.

Matthew Boyd of the Detroit Tigers may be the best starting pitcher available on the trade market this summer. Boyd is in the midst of a fantastic break-out season on a scuffling Detroit Tigers team.

Boyd is among the Major League leaders in pitcher’s WAR according to FanGraphs. He currently sits 14th with a 2.8 WAR.

He’s pitched 108 innings so far in 18 starts, an average of six innings per start, while posting 3.87 ERA. His underlying numbers, however, suggest he’s been even better than that.

Boyd has an FIP 3.56, an xFIP of 3.34, and a 3.03 Deserved Run Average. His excellent underlying numbers are being fueled by an incredible K/9 rate of 11.94 (a career best), with an extremely low walk rate (1.68 per/9 IP).

Boyd’s only real weakness so far this season has been on the long ball, giving up 1.56 HR/9, or a home run on 16.7% of the fly balls against him. That is a concern for a pitcher who is very fly ball dependent (his Ground Ball rate is just 36.5% this year).

This isn’t the first season in which Boyd has been decent either. He’s made improvements in his ERA, K/9, and BB/9 in each of the past three seasons before this one. He’s also posted over two WAR in each of the two seasons preceding this year, despite having a relatively high ERA.

Boyd may be the ideal option for the Milwaukee Brewers. He’s a left-handed starter, something Milwaukee has been short on for several years now including this year. He’s still relatively young (28) and has three years of team control beyond this season as well. His continued improvement suggests his major jump up this season may be real too.

It’s no surprise, then, that the Milwaukee Brewers have been scouting him for months as reported by The Athletic’s Robert Murray back on June 21st.

2) Marcus Stroman, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays

Marcus Stroman may be the second best pitcher available on the market this summer. Given Toronto’s position in the American league, they have little incentive to hold on to a player who’s going be able to enter free agency after the 2020 season.

Stroman’s profile is the ideal fit for Miller Park. He’s a heavy ground ball pitcher, posting a GB% above 60% in every season he’s played except this season. Even this year, his ground ball percentage is still very good (57.5%). That’s an ideal thing for a pitcher who would be starting in a home run happy ball park on a regular basis.

His other underlying stats aren’t as flashy as Boyd’s, but they’re still solid. Stroman has a 3.18 ERA through 104 2/3 innings so far (averaging just under six innings per start), though his FIP (3.82) and DRA (3.97) suggests he’s had some luck on his side. He’s not an overpowering pitcher, as his 6.96 K/9 rate suggests, but he doesn’t give up many walks (2.75 per/9) and limits home runs (he’s given up less than one HR per/9 in every season he’s pitched, including this year).

Stroman has an excellent repertoire of pitches, suggesting that there may be some untapped potential remaining in his profile. His age (28) and extra year of control beyond this year are also an added bonus for the Milwaukee Brewers.

He may not be a front-line starter, but his ability to induce ground balls, and pitch close to six innings regularly, would be a major asset for a Milwaukee Brewers team that’s struggled to get consistent deep outings out of any of their starters so far this season.  It’s his ground-ball profile that really makes him an attractive, top-tier type target.

3) Trevor Bauer, RHP, Cleveland Indians

Trevor Bauer may be a surprise inclusion here given that the Cleveland Indians are well in the race for the American League Wild Card spot. However, Jon Morosi of MLB.com recently reported that the Indians are willing to listen to offers for him given their position in the AL Central behind the red hot Minnesota Twins.

An argument can certainly be made that Bauer should be ahead of Stroman on this list. Bauer has been good for 2.1 WAR so far this year after being one of the best starters in the Major Leagues last season, when he posted career bests in WAR (5.8) and ERA (2.21). He’s been solid starter beyond that as well, posting a WAR of 2.7 and 2.8 in the 2016 and 2017 seasons.

Bauer has continued to strike out over ten batters per nine innings for the third consecutive season, while maintaining a manageable HR/9 rate of 1.22. He’s also average more innings per start this season (6.57) than he did during his breakout year last season (6.48)

The concern with Bauer is his underlying stats. His DRA of 4.87, and FIP of 4.20, suggests that he hasn’t been as good as his ERA shows. He’s giving up hard contact on batted balls in play at a career high rate (41%) while inducing ground balls at lower rate (40.3%) than he has since 2015. He’s also getting paid $13 million this year, a significant figure for a Milwaukee Brewers team that’s already stretched to their payroll limit this season.

Regardless of those concerns, though, Bauer is still an elite option. He’s been a consistent fixture in Cleveland’s rotation now for four seasons. Like Boyd and Stroman, he is just 28. BUT, he has major post-season experience to go with his strong regular season track record. He also has a year of control beyond this season, making him more than just a short-term option. The Milwaukee Brewers will certainly kick the tires on him in the coming weeks.

4) Zack Wheeler, RHP, New York Mets

Zack Wheeler is the final realistic top-tier option that will likely be available this summer. Though the New York Mets did not plan on moving off of some of their guys at this trade deadline, their recent dysfunction, and standing in the National League playoff race, suggests they may have no choice but to.

Wheeler is someone that Milwaukee Brewers fans will have familiarity with. Milwaukee nearly acquired him at the trade deadline back in the summer of 2015 as the headliner of the nixed Carlos Gomez trade.

Wheeler has been really good so far in 2019 after finally putting it all together last season. Wheeler has pitched 114 innings in 18 starts so far this season, an average of 6 1/3 innings per start. He’s averaging a career best K/9 rate of 9.71 while walking a career low 2.53 batters per nine. His ERA sits at a 4.42, but his his FIP (3.62), DRA (3.13) and WAR (2.5) suggest he’s been much better than that. That’s a really encouraging sign for a pitcher who posted career bests in WAR (4.2) and ERA (3.32) just one season ago.

The only thing that prevents Wheeler from being higher on this list is the fact that he’ll enter free agency this coming fall. Wheeler would be the classic one year rental for a team looking to make a stretch run.

That said, Wheeler may be the best pitcher out of the four players to appear on this list. He’s pitching like the elite starter he was projected to be several years ago.

Top-Tier, but Unlikely to Move

Beyond those four guys, there are a few other top-tier starters worth keeping an eye on in the coming weeks.

Max Scherzer, RHP, Washington Nationals

The Nationals got off to a rough start this season, but have started to find their stride as the summer’s heated up. There’s next to no chance that they’ll consider moving Max Scherzer as a result of their recent improvement given that they’ve built a roster meant to contend for a title right now.

If by some crazy stroke of fate he became available, he’d undoubtedly be the top target of every team. Scherzer has been, arguably, the best pitcher in baseball for several year running, and is having another Cy Young worthy season for the Nationals this season. He’d be the ace of any pitching staff in the big leagues and would take any team up a level if he became available.

2) Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York Mets

Unlike his fellow teammate, Wheeler,  Noah Syndergaard seems unlikely to move this summer for three reasons. He’s been injured again for the third consecutive season, he’s just 26, and he has two years of team control left beyond this year.

The Mets may listen to offers for him, but they seem disinclined to actually go through with trading him because of his age and years of control. They see him as a key part of their future.

Who can blame them either? When he’s healthy, he’s one of the most electric starters to watch in the Major Leagues. He’s part of a select few pitchers in the major leagues capable of manning the top of a rotation.

3) Luis Castillo, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

The Reds, like the Nationals, got off to a slow start this season, but have gotten themselves back into the thick of the playoff race in an extremely competitive National League. Luis Castillo‘s breakout season has been a major reason for that resurgence.

Castillo has posted the second best ERA in the majors at a 2.20. He’s averaging a career best K/9 rate of 10.53 this season while giving up just 0.76 HR/9 over 106 innings pitched.

Castillo is very unlikely to be moved. He has five remaining years of team control left, has improved in each season he’s been in the big leagues, is young (26), and is a key part of the Reds success so far. Even if the Reds fade before July 31st, there’s probably no chance that they’d move such a valuable young pitcher at the deadline.

4) Robbie Ray, LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks

One final top-tier starter to watch is Arizona Diamonbacks pitcher Robbie Ray.

Ray has emerged in recent seasons as one of the best strikeout pitchers in the major leagues. He’s averaging 11.78 K/9 so far this season after averaging over 12 per nine innings pitched in each of his prior two seasons.

He has major issues with walks, giving up 4.64 BB/9 so far this year after averaging over five per nine innings last season. But,  he can overcome much of that with his ability to limit hits and strikeout batters.

Ray is the closest of these four starters to being available at the trade deadline. He’s a free agent after the 2020 season, making him an awkward fit for a Diamondbacks team that’s taken some steps to move on from other players approaching their final year of control, like they did with Paul Goldschmidt this past winter.

What's the deal with Lorenzo Cain?. dark. Next

Arizona also seems unlikely to remain a playoff contender. Their underlying stats are solid, but their on paper talent is inferior to many of the NL teams they need to compete against if they want to make the playoffs this fall.

Given all of that, It’s not hard to envision Arizona listening to offers for Ray in the coming weeks.

Next