Milwaukee Brewers: Who are the relief pitcher trade targets?

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In the second of our series previewing the MLB Trade deadline, we take a look the top-tier relievers the Milwaukee Brewers can target.

Pitching has been the bane of the Milwaukee Brewers’ existence so far this season.

Though their starting pitching has been far worse, the Brewers have failed to get the kind of consistent, high-end production out of their bullpen that they got just one season ago.

The Milwaukee Brewers are in desperate need of at least another shut-down late-inning guy to take the pressure off of their ace closer, Josh Hader, and bridge the gap between the starters and him. The Brewers have experimented with several internal guys to do this late in games, but so far, none have excelled consistently enough to earn that role.

Who can the Milwaukee Brewers target at the trade deadline to help them in their pen? In the next of our series previewing the MLB Trade Deadline, we’ll take a look at what top-tier relievers are likely to be on the market.

For an explainer on how I’ve come to ranking these possible targets, you can read about how I came to these evaluations here.

Without further ado, let’s take a look at what top-tier relievers are likely to be on the market this summer.

Will Smith, LHP, San Francisco Giants

In a market that’s very likely to be very short on elite bullpen options, Will Smith will undoubtedly

be the best relief pitcher who’s a near certainty to move this summer.

Smith is someone whom Milwaukee Brewers fans will have a lot of familiarity with. The Milwaukee Brewers had Smith from 2014 until the trade deadline in 2016. Smith emerged as an elite late-inning reliever during his tenure in Milwaukee, leading the San Francisco Giants to trade for him in July of 2016 to help them make a run at the post-season that year.

Since moving to the Giants, Smith has remained one of the better relievers in the game. He posted a WAR of two last year for the Giants, despite missing much of the first half of the season due to Tommy John surgery. He posted an incredible K/9 rate of 12.06 while walking just 2.55 batters per nine innings, and giving up just 0.55 HR/9 last season. He ended up posting career bests in ERA (2.55) and FIP (2.07) in 53 innings pitched.

In 2019, Smith has been even better. He was just named to his first MLB All-Star game. His numbers are near the top Major League Baseball in every respect for relievers.

In 36 1/3 innings so far this season, Smith is averaging a career best in K/9 (13.13), BB/9 (1.98), ERA (1.98), and FIP (2.03). He’s stranded 84.7% of runners on base, and has kept the ball in the park too despite home runs being way up across the league (his HR/9 is just 0.74). Smith is a perfect 23-23 on save opportunities on a team that’s struggled to win games.

Will Smith is the perfect option for the Milwaukee Brewers pen. As already mentioned, Milwaukee has lacked an arm outside of Josh Hader who can come in and consistently shut down games. Smith would give the Brewers another deadly lefty who can blow teams away in the late-innings.

Smith’s asking price is unlikely to be too steep either given that he’s a free agent at the end of this season. It may take one top prospect to do it, but that may be a price the Milwaukee Brewers need to pay to get the top reliever on the market. Given his level of success now, and his previous track record of success with the Milwaukee Brewers, this move makes a ton of sense for everyone involved.

Ken Giles, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays

The only other top relief arm that seems likely to be available this summer is Toronto Blue Jays closer, Ken Giles.

Toronto acquired Giles just one season ago as part of the trade that sent their suspended closer at the time, Roberto Osuna, to Houston. Giles was moved, in part, due to personality clashes with the Astros management.

Giles has recovered from a volatile 2018 to become one the best relievers in the Majors again in 2019. He has a 1.45 ERA through 31 innings pitched. He’s averaging a stunning K/9 rate of 15.39, while walking just 2.61 batters per nine and 0.58 HR/9. Giles FIP is basically on par with his ERA, sitting at a 1.49. He’s stranded runners at an incredible rate, with his LOB% currently sitting at 92.2%. His 1.4 WAR trails only Kirby Yates, Josh Hader, Liam Hendriks, and Brad Hand among relievers.

Giles has a strong track record throughout his career of being a shutdown reliever too. Giles has posted a WAR of 1.4, 1.8, 2.1, 1.8, and 0.8 in each of his first five Major League seasons.

The big concern with Giles may be his ability to hold up physically for the rest of the season. He missed time in the middle of June due to inflammation in his throwing elbow. Though he was on the IL for just one ten-day stint, teams may have legitimate reason to wonder if his elbow will continue to decline as the season progresses.

Assuming he can stay healthy, Giles would be a great target. He has one more year of team control left after this season, something Milwaukee would surely want to take advantage of as they try to keep their contention window open for as long as possible. Given that his past issues seem to be behind him as well, Giles would be a smart target for the Milwaukee Brewers to consider this summer.

Top-Tier, but Unlikely To Move

Beyond Giles and Smith, there are other top-tier relievers worth mentioning, though circumstances suggest they’re becoming unlikely to move before the deadline.

Kirby Yates, RHP, San Diego Padres

Kirby Yates is having the best season of any reliever in baseball this season. His ERA sits at just a 1.15 entering the all-star break. He’s averaging 13.85 K/9, only 2.08 walks per nine, and has a HR/9 rate of just 0.28, something that seems like a typo given how ridiculous the long-ball has been around the league this season.

What precludes Yates from making the likely to move list is that the Padres have moved themselves firmly into the playoff picture in the National League. San Diego were making it known that they were unlikely to entertain offers for him just a few weeks ago. Their standing in the playoff picture has only improved since then.

Unless they land a godfather offer that convinces them to make a trade, it seems very unlikely that they’ll move off of their closer, who has one arbitration year remaining before he can enter free agency in 2020.

Brad Hand, LHP, Cleveland Indians

Like Yates, there’s been speculation about whether the Cleveland Indians would consider moving off of Brad Hand ahead of the trade deadline. Like the Padres, their standing in the American playoff race has dramatically improved since those rumors last emerged in the middle of June.

Hand seems very unlikely to move given that the Indians seem poised to make at least the Wild Card in the AL, with a growing chance at the Central Division title. If he did become available, he’d be, with Yates, the best reliever on the market.

Hand has been good for 1.5 WAR so far this season thanks to a 2.17 ERA, career best K/9 rate of 13.26, as well as a low walk rate (2.41 BB/9) and extremely low HR rate (0.41 per nine innings).

Hand has also been among the best relievers in baseball for several years running, and has two more years of control beyond this season, making him an incredible asset for anyone seeking to contend over a several year window.

Unless Cleveland has a change of heart, or are absolutely swept away by an offer, Hand will not be moving at the trade deadline this summer. They didn’t give up one of their top prospects last summer only to move him again in the middle of a playoff race.

Felipe Vazquez, LHP, Pittsburgh Pirates

Felipe Vazquez is one of the most electric arms in the game. He emerged as the Pirates closer back in the 2017 season and hasn’t relinquished the role since. He posted a WAR of 2.2 and 2.1 in each of the past two seasons preceding this year.

Vazquez has continued to build on his previous two years of success in 2019. He has a 1.4 WAR entering the all-star break, with a 2.11 ERA. He’s averaging a career best strikeout rate (14.09) while walking just 2.35 batters per nine and giving up just 0.7 HR/9.

Given that Pittsburgh enters the break within striking distance of the NL Central and Wild Card races, Vazquez seems quite unlikely to move. He also the most years of team control remaining of any reliever on this list. The Pirates have him signed through the 2023 season. Pittsburgh would need an all-time prospect haul for a reliever to even consider moving him this summer.

Edwin Diaz, RHP, New York Mets

Things have not gone how the New York Mets had envisioned before the season. Edwin Diaz‘s struggles have been a contributing factor.

After finishing second in WAR among relievers just a season ago, Diaz has fallen into the midst of his worst season in the Major Leagues. He has a career high 5.50 ERA while posting a WAR of just 0.4 so far in 2019. He’s giving up a career high 1.83 HR/9 as well, with 21.9% HR/FB rate. Things have gone so bad that the Mets are starting to consider taking him out of the closing role.

There are, however, some signs of life in his numbers. Diaz has maintained his incredibly high K/9 rate this year (14.68) and is still walking less than three batters per nine (2.88). His FIP (3.64), and xFIP (2.81) suggest he should be much better than his ERA shows. With a regression to even the league average for HR/FB, Diaz would be a much better pitcher.

New York paid a premium for him just a few months ago via trade. It seems unlikely, given his struggles and what they paid to get him, that they’d move off of him so soon.

If they are open to moving him, though, he would be an incredible buy low option who’s more than capable of being a top-tier talent given his previous track record, his age (25), and three years of control remaining. Diaz has one of the most electric repertoires in the league.

Sean Doolittle, LHP, Washington Nationals

The final player to appear on this list is Sean Doolittle.

Washington, much like the other teams on this list, have gotten themselves back into the playoff race in recent weeks after a slow start. That’s likely taken their closer off the market if he was even truly available to begin with.

Doolittle has been a model of consistency throughout his Major League career. He’s posted a WAR of 1.5 or greater in five of his previous seven seasons preceding this year.

He’s continued to be a solid relief option for Washington this season too. Doolittle has posted a 1.2 WAR so far this season and has saved 19 games. His ERA isn’t as stellar as some of the other relievers on this list (3.13), and his xFIP is concerning (4.93), but his other stats suggest he’s been solid. He’s averaging 10.61 K/9, 2.65 BB/9, and 0.72 HR/9. Doolittle is extremely fly ball dependent (his GB% is just 26.4%), but he’s very good at limiting HR/FB (he’s giving up a home run on just 5.2% of flyballs against him after having a 6.7% rate last season).

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With one more year of control beyond this season, Washington is likely to keep him this summer. Their window to contend is right now. Unless they slide again before the deadline, they’re likely to at least hold the fort and see how things play out over the remainder of the season.

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