Milwaukee Brewers: Other Relief Pitcher Trade Options

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In the next of our series previewing the MLB Trade Deadline, we take a look at what other relievers may be available for the Milwaukee Brewers to target in trades.

Relief pitching has been a problem for the Milwaukee Brewers this season.

After having what was arguably the league’s best bullpen last season, the Brewers pen this season has regressed to the middle-of-the-pack.

Milwaukee will need to bolster their pen ahead of the MLB Trade Deadline if they want to put themselves in a position to seriously contend for a World Series this season. There could be several enticing options on the market for them to explore.

In this article, we’ll take a look at what second and third tier options are likely to be available on the market this summer, or what we characterize as solid options or depth.

Solid options, as I explained in my article earlier this week when discussing the second-tier of the starting pitching market, are guys who aren’t impact, potentially franchise changing talents on their own, but can provide substantial value to the team, especially in the short term.

Depth options, which we haven’t previously discussed until now, are players who can help round out the team, but are unlikely to make more than a marginal impact. They can still provide value, though, by being decent options at the back of a pitching staff or the bench (hence the depth label).

If you want to see who the top-tier options are on the market, we took a look at the starting pitching market here, the relief market here, and the position player market here. We also went into the second-tier of the starting pitching market here, and will go into the second/third tier of the position player market, and the third tier of the starting pitching market in the days ahead. I’ve decided to trim those who are unlikely to move from these articles since the standings are beginning to show much more clarity on who’s likely to be a seller.

Without further ado, let’s take a look at what second and third tier relievers are likely to be available on the trade market!

Solid Options Likely to Move

There are a number of relievers who could move this summer that could provide a pretty significant boost to the Milwaukee Brewers in the late innings.

Ian Kennedy, RHP, Kansas City Royals

Ian Kennedy has found his footing again in the Major Leagues by pitching at the end of games for the Kansas City Royals.

Kennedy got a pretty significant contract from the Royals after 2016, signing for five years at $70 million. At the time, Kennedy was coming off of a decent season as a starting pitcher, where he pitched to a 3.68 ERA over 31 starts and was 1.9 WAR player.

Since that contract was signed, however, Kennedy lost his ability his start games. He posted exactly zero WAR in the first year of that contract in 2017, and was a just a one WAR player in 2018 while starting only 22 games. Given his struggles as a starter, the Royals decided it was best to send Kennedy to the pen where his ability to induce swing- and-misses could be played up more in short stints.

The move to make Kennedy a late-inning reliever has paid off big-time for the Royals this year. Kennedy has pitched 38 1/3 innings so far this season and has posted an ERA of 3.29. His underlying stats suggest he’s been even better than ERA shows.

Kennedy is striking out a career best 10.8 batters per nine innings. He has reduced his BB/9 rate to just 2.11 (which is also a career best). And, he’s given up just 0.47 HR/9 which is one of the best marks in the Majors. He’s inducing ground balls on nearly 44% of the balls put in play against him, a career best mark too. All of that is helping to fuel his very low FIP (2.28). His WAR of 1.2 is the second best mark he’s posted in any season since 2014.

Kennedy has emerged as a fantastic late-inning weapon in 2019. The major barrier to any potential trade is how much money the Royals are going to be willing to eat of his contract. After all, his final year in 2020 will see him earn $16.5 million, an incredibly high price for any pitcher, let alone someone who just recently converted to being a reliever.

Assuming the money could be worked around, you’d be hard pressed to find a better second-tier option on the market this summer than him.

Seth Lugo, RHP, New York Mets

Another solid late-inning weapon who could find his way on to the trade market this summer is Seth Lugo of the New York Mets.

Lugo was originally a starting pitcher when he made it the Majors, but has since been converted into a reliever capable of shouldering multiple innings in one appearance.

2018 was the first time the Mets converted him to a bullpen role. He excelled in that opportunity. Lugo pitched over 101 innings while posting a very impressive 2.66 ERA last year. Lugo’s success was built off of his ability to miss bats and limit hard contact. Lugo struck out 9.15 batters per nine innings last season while giving 0.8 HR/9. He was able to get opponents to hit ground balls on 46.5% of the balls in put in play against him.

This season, Lugo’s been missing bats even more often than last season. His K/9 rate is a career best 12.02. He’s not walking batters at a higher rate either while doing this (his BB/9 is 2.56 after being 2.51 last season). Like many pitchers around the league, Lugo’s had to adjust to the ball going farther when it’s hit this year. His HR/9 is up as his the amount of hard contact against him (a career high 38.6% after being at 31% in 2018). However, the additional strikeouts he’s getting has helped him maintain a solid 3.15 ERA with a 3.30 FIP.

Lugo would come at a mammoth cost if he were to move today. He will be entering his first year of arbitration this off-season, making him a valuable multi-year reliever. That said, Lugo may be the closest thing to an up-and-coming elite reliever of any player to appear on these lists. He’s an incredible talent who’s having major success at the Major League level and may continue to improve as time goes on.

Sam Dyson, RHP, San Francisco Giants

Sam Dyson has been a consistent late-inning pitcher now for several Major League seasons.

Dyson was a 1.2 WAR player in both 2015 and 2016. He had an uncharacteristically bad 2017, before returning to a good level of production in 2018 and 2019.

He’s not the flashy strikeout pitcher that many late-inning guys are, but his success comes from his ability to induce ground balls at a very efficient rate. Dyson has gotten opponents to ground out on 63.7% of the balls put in play against him over his career, and he’s gotten opponents to hit grounders on 55.6% of the balls put in play against him in 2019.

Dyson, however, is more than just a contact pitcher. He’s averaging 8.61 K/9 in 2019, one of the better marks of his career, while walking a career low 1.17 batters per/9. Dyson has avoided the home run issues that many other relievers around baseball are experiencing this year as his HR/9 rate stands at just 0.59, and opponents are making hard contact on just 29.6% of the balls put in play against him this season.

The Giants have begun to play themselves back into the wild card picture thanks to an incredible hot streak their on. If/when that fades, Dyson could be one of the best relievers available on the market this summer. Given that he has one more year of control beyond this season, and his pitching profile, Dyson may be the perfect fit for the Milwaukee Brewers.

Alex Colome, RHP, Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox have faded significantly in the American League playoff race in recent weeks. That means many of their veteran players nearing the end of their contracts will likely be moving before the July 31st deadline. Alex Colome is likely to be among those moved.

Colome has become one of the more consistent late-inning guys in the Majors. Colome has been a one WAR or better pitcher in four consecutive seasons prior to this year. Much of that time has been spent as a closer.

In 2019, Colome has been near his previous seasons in production. Colome has saved 20 games in the 37 2/3 innings he’s pitched so far and has a solid 2.39 ERA.

There are, however, causes for concern in his numbers. Colome has seen his K/9 rate drop to a career low 6.93 (his MLB average is 8.16), and opponents are making hard contact against him at a career high 39% rate. His HR/9 is virtually the same as last season (0.96), but opponents are hitting an unsustainably low .156 on BABIP against him so far. Those numbers suggest he’s due for some major regression in the second half of the season.

Regardless of those concerns though, Colome has a solid track record. He would make a seasoned addition to the pen with one more year of control remaining.

Aaron Bummer, LHP, Chicago White Sox

On the flip side of the equation, the White Sox have a young, controllable reliever who’s in the midst of his best Major League season in 2019: Aaron Bummer.

Bummer had a very nice 2018 in relatively limited innings. Though his ERA was a 4.26, Bummer was good for 0.8 WAR in the 31 2/3 innings he pitched, and his K/9 (9.95), BB/9 (2.84), and HR/9 (0.28) all suggested he was much better than his ERA showed.

In 2019, Bummer has built on his breakout performance. Bummer has pitched to an incredibly low 1.83 ERA in 34 1/3 Innings. Though his K/9 is slightly down (8.91), he’s continued to limit the walks (2.88), and home runs he gives up (0.52)

He’s a rare blend that can get swings-and-misses while also keeping the contact he does give up on the ground. He had a groundball rate against of over 60% last season, and in 2019 he’s gotten that up to 66.3% of the balls put in play against him. Opponents are making hard contact on just 24.7% of the balls put in play against him as well.

Given his age (25) and lack of service time (he has less than a year of service time at the moment), a deal may be very difficult to pull off. However, the Milwaukee Brewers might be wise to consider spending quite a bit of prospect depth on him. He looks like he may be on his way to becoming a top-tier reliever.

Shane Greene, RHP, Detroit Tigers

Shane Greene has been one of the few bright spots on a very bad Detroit Tigers team.

Greene first found major success as a late-inning option for the Tigers in 2017. He scuffled for most of last season, but has since returned to something strongly resembling his 2017 breakout.

Greene has the second lowest ERA among relievers in the Majors entering play on Thursday at a 1.06, just ahead of Kirby Yates. Greene is striking out 9.26 batters per nine, which is virtually in line with his career averages, while walking just 2.65 batters per nine. After having issues with the long ball last season (he gave up 1.71 HR/9), he’s been able to hold opponents to a manageable 1.06 HR/9 this season. He’s been able to get ground balls at a much higher rate so far this season (53.4%) than he has in the past too (career average of 46.4%). He’s limiting hard contact to just 27.3% on the balls put in play against him.

One note of caution with Greene is that his FIP (3.66) and xFIP (4.04) are much higher than his ERA which suggests that some regression will happen in the second half of the season. That said, even if that does occur, Greene should still be a very good reliever for the remainder of the season.

Greene is under contract through 2020. Given his track record as a solid late inning option, the Tigers will likely look to land a major return for him at the trade deadline this year. The Brewers will certainly explore him as an option.

Reyes Moronta, RHP, San Francisco Giants

One final reliever who could find his way onto the market as solid option is a lesser-known reliever on the Giants: Reyes Moronta.

Moronta got his first shot at full-time action in the Major Leagues in 2018. Though he struggled with walks (his BB/9 was 5.12), Moronta was able to post a 2.49 ERA in 65 Innings a season ago thanks to his great K rate (10.94 per/9) and limiting hard contact (he gave up 0.55 HR/9 and opponents had a hard contact rate on batted balls in play against him of 29.5%). He was a 1.1 WAR player.

This season, Moronta has continued to improve. His K/9 rate has jumped to 12.25. He’s seen a slight reduction in the amount of walks he’s issuing (4.36 per nine), and he’s continuing to keep the ball in the park (0.62 HR/9) despite an increase in hard contact off of him (35%).

Given that he’s under control through 2024, the Giants will try to hold on him. However, given his emerging profile as great late-inning guy, they may be wise to entertain deals for him ahead of the trade deadline.

Depth Options

In this final tier, there are a handful of pitchers who could be decent depth options on the market.

Trevor Gott, RHP, San Francisco Giants

Trevor Gott has bounced around the Majors, but appears to have found something in 2019 with the San Francisco Giants.

In 38 2/3 innings pitched in 2019, Gott has a 3.96 ERA. He has a career best 9.39 K/9, has dropped his BB/9 to a career low of 2.79, and is limiting home runs in a way that he hasn’t been able to do since he debuted for the Angels in 2015 (0.70 HR/9). His FIP (3.26) and WAR (0.6) suggests he’s been better than his surface numbers show. He’s not getting grounders as often as he did last season (43.4% compared to 57.1%), but he’s done a good job of missing bats more often than before.

Gott’s production may be an aberration. After all, he’s giving up hard contact on 41.4% of the batted balls in play against him (a career high). However, given that he’s shown some substantive improvement this season, he may be worth a look as a depth option in the pen.

Tony Watson, LHP, San Francisco Giants

Unlike his teammate Trevor Gott, Tony Watson is someone who has had a solid amount of success as a Major League reliever.

Watson has been a one WAR or greater reliever in three seasons during his career, including having a career best season last year where he pitched to a 2.59 ERA over 66 innings and was a 1.8 WAR player.

2019 hasn’t been as kind to Watson when it comes to WAR (FanGraphs says he’s been a zero WAR player), but his overall numbers are okay. Watson has pitched to the tune of a 3.03 ERA so far in 2019. His K/9 rate is the lowest of his career (6.75), but remains serviceable when complimented by the lack of walks he issues (1.16 BB/9 a career best). Watson’s struggles have come on the long ball. After giving up a career low 0.55 HR/9 in 2018, he’s seen his HR/9 rate increase to a career high 1.40 now. That;s an alarming rate, especially when you consider that he’s pitching in arguably the most pitcher-friendly park in the Majors.

Given his overall track record, and okay stats now, Watson could make a solid left-handed addition to the pen. He may not be the lights out reliever he’s been at times in the past, but he’s still more than capable of holding the fort for an inning a couple of times a week.

Jake Diekman, LHP, Kansas City Royals

Jake Diekman has had a decent career. What’s plagued him when he’s had problems, however, has been his issuance of walks.

Diekman has a high ERA this season (4.89), one that is basically in line with his ERA from last season (4.73). His ERA is in high territory thanks, in large part, to a walk per nine rate of 5.35. Diekman does, however, do a very good job of missing bats (his K/9 rate is a career best 13.27), limiting home runs (0.70 HR/9), and limiting hard contact (30.7% of batted balls in play against him this year).

Diekman represents a classic buy low option. He’s had success in the past with his profile (he posted 1.4, 0.5, and 0.8 WAR from 2014-16). His underlying numbers suggest he’s been a bit better than his ERA shows too (FIP of 3.60, xFIP 3.87). If the Milwaukee Brewers pitching coaches could get him to dial back on the walks a bit, he could still be a solid option in the pen.

Robert Gsellman, RHP, New York Mets

Another reliever who hasn’t quite pitched up to his advanced stats this season is Robert Gsellman.

Gsellman was a highly regarded starting pitching prospect in the Mets system. Like Lugo, Gsellman saw himself moved to the bullpen due to a lack of opportunities in the starting rotation. He’s shown flashes of being a good reliever, but hasn’t quite put it all together since being converted to that role.

Last season, Gsellman pitched to a 4.28 ERA over 80 innings pitched. He made tangible improvements in missing bats (his K.9 rate was 7.88 compared to 6.17 in 2017), limited walks at a decent rate (3.15), and kept the ball in the park (0.90 HR/9).

In 2019, Gsellman has seen his ERA increase to a 5.07, but there are some encouraging signs under the hood. Gsellman has improved his K/9 rate to 9.06, while seeing only a slight up-tick in walks (3.44). His HR/9 is higher than last season (1.09), but is still below his 2017 rate. The hard contact that opponents are making off of him may be a career high (35.3%), but that’s still better than many other players around baseball. Opponents are also making less contact off of him than they have in any prior season he’s pitched in the big leagues.

Gsellman may be a solid buy-low option. He can go more than an inning if needed (He’s pitched 49 2/3 innings this year over 42 appearances), and has shown some improvement in his stats in each year he’s been in the league. The Mets may be reluctant to part with him given that he’s just 26, and under control through 2022, but it might be time for a change of scenery.

Mychal Givens, RHP, Baltimore Orioles

2019 has not been kind to Mychal Givens, but he has begun to show signs of returning to his previously elite production in recent weeks.

Givens has been a fixture in the late innings for the Orioles since he debuted back in 2015. He was 0.9 WAR pitcher in his debut season, and was good for 1.2, 1.1, and 1.8 WAR from 2016-18.

Givens’s ERA in 2019 is a career high 4.39 thanks to significant issues he’s had giving up home runs. After limiting opponents to less than a HR/9 in all but one MLB season prior to this, Givens has seen his HR/9 sore to an absurd 1.93 in 2019. 23.5% of the fly balls hit against him have left the ball park this year.

Beyond his home run problems, though, Givens has posted solid numbers. His K/9 rate is a career best 12.54. His BB/9 is a tad high (3.86), but is more than manageable and basically in line with his rate from last year. He’s giving up hard contact on just 23.8% of the batted balls in play against him too, the second best mark of his career. The lack of hard contact against him shows just how unlucky he has been when it comes to home runs. Opponents are also making contact less often against him less often than they have in any season of his career.

Givens, more than any player on these lists, presents the highest upside as an addition. If he can cut back on his home runs, it’s not a stretch in the least to see him returning to being one of the best relievers in baseball. The Orioles are likely to ask for a lot in trade discussions since he’s under control through 2021, and he’s been elite throughout his career. However, any team would be wise to consider adding Givens to their pen given what he can do.

Buck Farmer, RHP, Detroit Tigers

Buck Farmer is having a fine 2019 so far.

In 37 2/3 innings pitched, he’s recorded a 4.06 ERA. Farmer’s underlying stats suggest he’s made some tangible improvements as well. Farmer has increased his K/9 rate to a career best 10.04. He’s reduced his BB/9 to a career low 3.11. Farmer is also keeping the ball in the park. He’s given up 0.96 HR/9 thus far.

Farmer can miss bats, but he’s also doing a better job of getting batters to ground out. His groundball percentage this year is a career-high 53.8%. This has helped him maintain a low HR/9 despite seeing a big jump in the hard contact on batted balls in play against him (42.1%)

Like many players on these list, Farmer may not be the exciting late-inning addition a team wants to make. However, he could be a solid middle innings reliever for someone looking for depth.

Michael Lorenzen, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

The final player to appear on our list is Michael Lorenzen of the Reds.

Lorenzen is well-known by Milwaukee Brewers fans due to his clutch pinch hitting against Milwaukee. What may be less known about him is that he’s a serviceable reliever too.

Lorenzen has been Cincinnati’s go to reliever to eat innings for them out of the pen. He’s found success in that role, posting WAR’s of 0.8 in 2016, 0.5 in 2017, and 0.4 in 2018-19.

So far this season, Lorenzen has pitched to a 3.51 ERA in 48 2/3 innings. He currently has a career best K/9 rate of 9.06, and has a career low BB/9 rate of 2.40. The amount of home runs he’s giving up has increased over last season (1.29 per/9 compared to 0.67 last year), but is still quite good when you consider that he’s pitching in one of the most homer friendly parks in the Majors.

Beyond those top line stats, Lorenzen has done a good job of limiting hard contact against him. Opponents have made hard contact on just 33.1% of batted balls in play against him this season. He’s also continued to keep the ball on the ground. His ground ball percentage is 47.9% this year and was over 50% in each of the preceding two years.

Lorenzen would make a stellar addition as a multi-inning reliever. Given that the Reds have begun to slide out of contention, they’d be wise to entertain offers for Lorenzen given that he’s under contract through 2021. He could fetch them a decent prospect or two in the right deal.

Next. Which relievers should the Brewers target?. dark

The Milwaukee Brewers could use someone exactly like him to help bridge the gap once or twice a week to the late-inning relievers.

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Milwaukee Brewers: Other Reliever Trade Options