The Milwaukee Brewers were on their way to a playoff spot at this time last year. This year? It hasn’t been quite as easy. The Brewers are still in the hunt, but what are their chances at this point?
The races for the NL Central and the NL Wild Card are far from over. While the Milwaukee Brewers are on the outside looking in, they still have a chance to play baseball in October. What are the current odds, and how rough does the path to the playoffs really look?
Where are the Brewers in the NL Central race
Winning the NL Central division title in 2019 looks like a challenge for the Milwaukee Brewers. The St. Louis Cardinals are in control of the division. The Redbirds are three games up on the Chicago Cubs, and seven games up on the the Brewers.
All three teams have 24 games remaining on their schedule. The Brewers have four games left with the Cubs in Milwaukee and a three-game set left with the Cardinals in St. Louis. A split would the Cubs is enough to keep pace with them, but the Brewers would need a sweep of the Cardinals while keeping pace just to have a shot at the division.
Another NL Central title is unlikely at this point for the Milwaukee Brewers. FanGraphs has the Brewers with a 1.3% chance of winning the division.
What are the odds of the Brewers winning the Wild Card?
The Milwaukee Brewers have a bit of work to do in order to win the NL Wild Card.
The Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs are currently leading the race for the two Wild Card spots. At three games in front of the Cubs, the Nationals would host the NL Wild Card play-in game right now.
The Brewers are four games in back of the Cubs, but they would have to leapfrog the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies to get in position to challenge for the second Wild Card spot.
The Brewers only have head-to-head games against the Chicago Cubs remaining. They’re done with the Phillies and D-Backs.
According to FanGraphs, the Brewers have an 7.4% chance of winning the NL Wild Card right now.
The Milwaukee Brewers have put themselves in a tough spot at the start of April. Injuries to the pitching staff and second baseman Keston Hiura and a patchwork bullpen have cost the Brewers a lot. However, the team still has a solid lineup, and the pitching staff, looking your way Jordan Lyles, is showing signs of life. If the team can get Brandon Woodruff back and work out a bridge to closer Josh Hader, they might be able to stay in the mix for the second Wild Card. The division looks like an impossibility at this point.