Milwaukee Brewers: Complete 2019-2020 Offseason Preview

Brewers Pending Free Agents

Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas, Gio Gonzalez, Drew Pomeranz, Matt Albers, Jordan Lyles

Both Grandal and Moustakas have mutual options for next year, but it’s highly unlikely they will pick up their end of that option. Both are going to enter the free agent market.

It’s going to be tough to re-sign Grandal given his offensive and defensive prowess and coming off the best year of his career. He will be the top catcher available this winter.

Moustakas will be easier to re-sign, but he’s going to be searching for that multi-year deal this winter that has proved elusive before. But he’s going to try again after a strong season.

Gio Gonzalez proved to be a stabilizing force for this rotation once again. He did well in 2018 in one month-plus of action and returned in May and put forth a strong season with a 3.50 ERA in 19 games with 17 starts. The Brewers could be interested in re-signing him as rotation depth, but a rotation spot likely won’t be guaranteed and he might want to search for that elsewhere before he agrees to return.

Drew Pomeranz is someone the Brewers will absolutely be interested in re-signing this winter. He’s been remarkable out of the bullpen this year and emerged one of the Crew’s most trustworthy relievers. He earned himself some big money as a reliever this offseason.

Matt Albers started off strong, posting a 3.65 ERA in the first half, but once again, fell apart in the second half with a 7.54 ERA after the All Star Break. The soon-to-be 37 year old has thrown his last pitch for the Brewers and will head elsewhere.

Jordan Lyles is going to be an interesting case this offseason. He’s been great since joining the Milwaukee Brewers in July and there’s even been extension talks for him, so it’s possible he returns. But his .225 BABIP and 4.91 xFIP are very concerning peripheral stats for Lyles and severe regression is possible.

Club Options

Chase Anderson, Eric Thames, Manny Pina

Two years ago, the Milwaukee Brewers signed Chase Anderson to a modest contract extension after a breakout 2017 season. There were two guaranteed years on the deal, with the final two years being club options.

After a disappointing campaign in 2018 and a mild bounceback in 2019, Anderson has a club option for $8.5 million in 2020 with a $500k buyout. Based on his performance, there’s little chance the Brewers would want to pay Anderson $8.5 million given he won’t have a rotation spot staked out, and that’s a lot of money for a long reliever and spot starter.

Don’t rule out Anderson returning on a smaller contract, but this option will surely be declined.

Eric Thames has finished the three year, $15 million guaranteed deal he signed prior to the 2017 season. He had a breakout 2017, regressed in 2018, and bounced back in 2019. Overall, it was a good contract. His option for 2020 is for $7.5 million and contains a $1 million buyout.

This will be a tough decision. He’s played well and with Jesus Aguilar now gone, there’s not much for challengers at first base. But $7.5 million is a lot of money and the Brewers could put that to good use elsewhere and find someone cheaper who can put up the same kind of production. Don’t be surprised if it gets declined but the Brewers sign him back anyways.

Manny Pina went from the starting catcher to the backup catcher with the addition of Grandal this year. He did a good job when he got to fill in for Grandal and could be the starter once again if Grandal signs elsewhere. His $1.85 million option has a $150k buyout, but that’s a paltry sum to pay for Pina. This should be picked up.

Arbitration Players

Jimmy Nelson, Hernan Perez, Corey Knebel, Travis Shaw, Zach Davies, Alex Claudio, Tyler Saladino, Junior Guerra, Brent Suter, Orlando Arcia, Ben Gamel, Cory Spangenberg

That’s 12 players due up for arbitration this winter. Some are non-tender candidates, while some are due for big raises. Projected arbitration salaries are not out as of this writing.

Jimmy Nelson has re-upped at $3.7 million for the past two years, having missed most of the time with injury. Now he’s finally returned, and he probably won’t get much of a raise, if at all. He struggled when healthy this year and missed a good chunk with an unrelated elbow injury. This will be Nelson’s final year of team control before reaching free agency after 2020, and his last chance to earn a big contract to stay in Milwaukee.

Hernan Perez will also be entering his final year of arbitration and team control. He signed for $2.5 million this year and survived through one DFA, but his bat wasn’t as productive this year as it was in year’s past. If he gets a raise, it’ll be minimal.

Corey Knebel missed all of 2019 with Tommy John surgery but has been an effective closer for the Milwaukee Brewers. He earned $5.125 million in 2019 and look for him to be re-upped at the same value for 2020, his third year of arbitration. As a Super-Two player, Knebel has four years of arbitration and will be a free agent after 2021.

Travis Shaw earned $4.675 million in his first year of arbitration and it went terribly. After putting up big numbers earning near league-minimum his first two years in Milwaukee, his payscale is not going to climb as high as he thought. If he gets tendered, he’s going to either stay at the same salary or drop a little. There’s no way he’s getting a raise.

Zach Davies turned in another solid season with a 3.55 ERA in 31 starts and is likely to see a nice raise from his $2.6 million salary in his first go-round in arbitration.

Alex Claudio also had a nice season, putting up a better second half than first half. He led the league in appearances and saw a slight improvement in his ERA this year, but allowed more walks this year. He’ll see a slight raise most likely, but nothing much higher than his $1.275 million salary from 2019.

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Tyler Saladino, outside of two grand slams this year, provided pretty much nothing offensively to this team. He struggled mightily at the plate after surprisingly being tendered last winter for $887.5k but he’s a non-tender candidate once again.

Junior Guerra has been able to pitch in any role the Milwaukee Brewers have asked him to. He posted a 3.55 ERA in 72 bullpen appearances this year and emerged as a key piece in the bullpen. He’s due a nice raise from his $2.225MM salary in his first year of arbitration.

Brent Suter will be entering his first of four years of arbitration and is due a big raise from the $568k he earned in 2019. He came back from Tommy John surgery in September, dominating his way to the NL Reliever of the Month Award. With his success as a starter prior to his injury, he’s going to easily make seven figures next year.

Orlando Arcia will also go into his first arbitration year. The former top prospect has shined defensively but has struggled on offense since the 2017 season. How much will his defensive value translate into dollars? We’ll have to wait and see.

Ben Gamel turned in a solid season as the fourth outfielder in 2019. He was passed up by Trent Grisham towards the end of the season but he is a nice depth piece that due for a decent salary increase. There’s a possibility he’s a trade candidate due to his pending salary bump and other options at his position like Grisham and Tyrone Taylor.

Cory Spangenberg provided a nice boost to this roster since being called up from Triple-A in late August. He had a strong season in Triple-A and may have earned himself another year with Milwaukee with his solid play in September. It’ll be between him and Perez for that utility infield spot.

Minor Leaguers Needing Rule 5 Protection

Corey Ray, Lucas Erceg, Zack Brown, Thomas Jankins, J.P. Feyereisen, Weston Wilson, Cooper Hummel, Ryan Aguilar, Braden Webb, Daniel Brown

These are all the players that need Rule 5 protection from Triple-A and Double-A in the Milwaukee Brewers organization this winter. There are others that are either already eligible and aren’t risks of being taken.

In case you aren’t familiar with the Rule 5 Draft, here’s a full explanation, but the short version is, minor leaguers have a certain number of years in the minor leagues where the big league team can have control. Once that is up, they have to be added to the 40 man roster or the team risks another organization “drafting” him in the Rule 5 Draft at the Winter Meetings. The big league team doesn’t lose them if they aren’t selected, but it’s a calculated risk.

Corey Ray is one of the Brewers top prospects and would be an easy selection for another team if left eligible. Ray will most likely be added, even though he struggled through an injury riddled season in 2019. When healthy, he’s proven to be a great hitter.

Lucas Erceg also struggled offensively this year in Triple-A. Prior to that, he was the heir apparent at third base, but now that future is in question. With questions about Shaw and Moustakas heading into next season, Erceg is as important as ever if he can get back on track.

Zack Brown, the Crew’s highest rated prospect on this list, also had a rough season in Triple-A, finishing with a 5.79 ERA. He’ll get added to the 40 man, but it’s going to be an uphill climb for him to make the 25 man roster. He’s going to need some success in Triple-A first.

J.P. Feyereisen was a trade acquisition in early September. The Yankees knew his Rule 5 eligibility was coming up and they wouldn’t have room to keep him, so they sent him to Milwaukee. He’s a likely addition.

Braden Webb had climbed prospect rankings but had a tough 2019 as well, earning a 4.76 ERA in 20 starts, covering just 64.1 IP. There’s a chance he gets added, but there’s probably a better chance he gets left off.

Thomas Jankins, Weston Wilson, Cooper Hummel, Ryan Aguilar, and Daniel Brown are all likely to be left off the 40 man roster. There’s only going to be so many open spots available, and big league additions are going to be more important than protecting Double-A and Triple-A non-prospects.

Payroll Outlook

With Moustakas, Grandal, Anderson, and Thames potentially free agents coming off the books, the Milwaukee Brewers will have some payroll flexibility this winter.

The only big guaranteed contracts for next season are Lorenzo Cain ($16MM), Christian Yelich ($12.5MM), and Ryan Braun ($16MM) who’s in the final guaranteed year of his contract. Braun has a $15MM mutual option for 2021 that the Brewers are likely to decline.

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Braun’s salary is dropping next year, after earning $19 million in 2019, his payroll hit goes down by $3 million. Once his big contract is off the books, there will be more money available to give out to longer-term assets, such as Christian Yelich.

Another great season from Yelich means more speculation about when an extension will occur. The longer we go without an extension, the higher the fear that he’ll leave in free agency. At this point, there’s little reason to fear Yelich leaving. Once Braun’s contract is up, that money will likely go towards paying Christian Yelich. My guess is an extension will happen next offseason.

With the looming payday of Christian Yelich, the Milwaukee Brewers have to be careful with how they spend their money this offseason. While it would be nice to pay Grandal as much as necessary to keep him around, it may not be possible.

The Brewers have $51.4 million guaranteed for next year, without including the arbitration and league-minimum players.

They also could be looking to pay for some free agent pitching upgrades, which will also eat into the budget.

There is some payroll flexibility this winter, but it’s going to be a careful tightrope walk trying to get this team in the best possible shape for next year while also keeping flexibility for a future Yelich extension and other extension candidates.

It’s going to be an interesting offseason for the Milwaukee Brewers this winter. A lot of decisions to make, and a lot of different directions they could go.