Brewers: Three free agents to target this winter

3) Didi Gregorious, SS

Coming in at number three on our list for who the Milwaukee Brewers should target in free agency is the best available shortstop on the market: Didi Gregorius.

Gregorius is coming off of a season where he missed a significant amount of time at the start of it due to recovering from Tommy John surgery which he had undergone during the prior season. He featured in just 82 games last season after appearing in at least 134 games in each of his previous four seasons in New York.

Despite struggling with the bat a bit after returning from his injury, Gregorius did manage to post 0.8 fWAR in his 82 games for the team. That comes on the heels of back-to-back seasons where he produced over four fWAR.

It’s not difficult to see why Gregorius should be a real consideration for the Brewers. Milwaukee has gotten awful production out of their shortstop position offensively in each of the past two seasons, which is something that I discussed in my season review of Orlando Arcia a few weeks ago. Though Gregorius was below the league average this past season with his bat (his WRC+ was 84), he was better than the league average in each of the previous two seasons (he posted a WRC+ of 109 and 122 in 2017-18).

Beyond his bat, he also provides a high level of defense that meets or exceeds what Arcia provides. Though his ratings in Defensive Runs Saved is mixed, his Ultimate Zone Rating has been above-average in each of the past four seasons, as has his defensive rating on Fangraphs.

With the Brewers probably lacking the assets to land a top shortstop via trade, they’ll have to use free agency to improve at the position. There’s no one on the market at short this winter that’s better than Gregorius. His combination of solid defense and offense would be a great addition to the team.

He’ll turn 30 in February.

Predicted Contract:   Two years, $28 million

2) Josh Donaldson, Third Baseman

Coming in at number two on our list is one of the best third basemen in Major League Baseball: Josh Donaldson.

The former 2015 American League MVP is coming off if a fantastic 2019 season in Atlanta where he was good for 4.9 fWAR, That total put him 8th among all third basemen this past season.

Donaldson is still a monster in the field and with his bat. He posted above-average metrics in both in 2019. His offensive stats were most impressive, as he posted a slash line of .259/.379/.521 with 37 home runs, and a top-tier walk percentage of 15.2%.

Outside of an injury plagued 2018 season, Donaldson has been one of the best players in baseball. He posted between 5.1 and 8.7 fWAR in every season from 2013 to 2017.

With the Brewers facing an uncertain future at third, with Moustakas entering free agency and Travis Shaw coming off one of the league’s worst offensive seasons, they would be wise to entertain their options at the hot corner. Donaldson proved this past season that he’s still one of the best third basemen out there.

A few words of caution, however, are required when it comes to Donaldson. One is that he’s arguably entered into injury-prone status. He missed over 100 games in 2018 due to injuries. That came on the heels of a 2017 season where he also missed over 50 games.

What’s encouraging, though, is that Donaldson was healthy for entirety of 2019, featuring in over 155 games for the Braves in the regular season, plus five post-season games.

It’s also worth noting that Donaldson turns 34 in just a few weeks. Given his age, it wouldn’t be unexpected to see his performance decline in the coming years.

That said, the Brewers would still be hard pressed to find a better bat on the market this winter than him. If they want to upgrade significantly over Moustakas (he posted 2.8 fWAR last season compared to 4.9 for Donaldson), Donaldson would make perfect sense. He’d be a high-level addition to an already solid core.

Predicted Contract:  Two years, $40-48 million.

1) Zack Wheeler, SP

The top player that the Milwaukee Brewers should be targeting in free agency this winter is someone who could help take the team’s starting pitching staff to the next level: Zack Wheeler. 

Wheeler has begun to reach the lofty expectations that were set for him all those years ago. After missing all of 2015, 2016, and part of 2017 due to an elbow injury, Wheeler has emerged as one of the better starting pitchers in baseball.

In his first full season back in 2018, Wheeler pitched 182 1/3 innings over 29 starts, posting a 3.31 ERA and 3.25 FIP. His 2018 season was worth 4.2 fWAR, placing him in a tie for 12th among all pitchers in fWAR.

This past season, he pitched 195 1/3 innings over 31 starts, posting a slightly higher 3.96 ERA, but a solid FIP 3.48. His fWAR this season was actually higher (4.7) than the season before, He finished in a tie for 14th in fWAR among all pitchers.

Wheeler is an extremely enticing option for the Brewers to add.

The first thing he would provide them with is someone who can be relied upon to give the team at least six innings in nearly every start that he makes. He averaged about 6.3 innings pitched per start in each of the past two seasons.

Milwaukee has not had a dependable pitcher who can provide them with those kind of innings since their 2011-12 teams that had Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. Having someone who can pitch that many innings in every outing is a very valuable thing to have, especially considering that Milwaukee’s bullpen has not had many days off over the past two seasons. Having a starter who can relieve some of the stress on the pen every five days would make managing the bullpen a lot easier.

Another reason why he would make an awesome addition is that he’s a very good pitcher. Though he may not be in the same league of production as Cole, Justin Verlander, or Max Scherzer, he has been a top 15 pitcher in baseball in each of the past two seasons, and still has room to get better given that he has four average or better offerings.

His underlying stats in each of the past two seasons back up his overall production too. Wheeler has averaged nearly nine K/9 while walking less than three batters per nine. Despite a spike in home runs around the league this past season, he also managed to keep his HR/9 rate to a 1.01, which wasn’t much worse than the amount of home runs he gave up the season before (0.69).

In addition to those stats, he draws a lot of swings and misses, both inside and outside the strike zone. He limits hard contact quite well (his hard contact % against was 31.4 last season). And, he tends to keep the ball on the ground (his GB% was 44.2% and 43.2% in each of the past two seasons). All of that makes his profile a favorable fit in hitter friendly Miller Park.

It also appears that Wheeler is past the elbow injuries that he dealt with a few seasons ago. Though there would still be some injury risk involved if they signed him, it is really encouraging that he’s made almost every possible start for the Mets in each of the past two seasons. He’ll turn 30 next May.

The Brewers have lacked a top-tier talent in their starting rotation for a long time. Wheeler is the answer they’ve been looking for. They should do everything in their power to sign him.

Predicted Contract:  Three years, $66-to-$72 million.