Brewers: The Cases For And Against Josh Hader In Arbitration

Hader’s Case Against The Brewers

Josh Hader specifically requested the $6.4MM salary number because it would give him the record for a reliever his first time through arbitration. He’s arguing he’s the best reliever in baseball at this stage in his career and is deserving of a salary that reflects that.

It’ll be difficult for the Brewers to counter that, because they’ve already admitted that themselves.

These comments by Brewers GM David Stearns were made in light of reports the Brewers were listening on trade offers for Hader, and reflecting the high price they would have in trade discussions. But since the organization has admitted Hader is the best reliever in baseball, it greatly weakens their ability to argue against him.

Hader has won the NL Reliever of the Year award back-to-back seasons now. He finished in the Top-10 in the 2018 Cy Young award voting, which is impressive considering he was mostly a middle reliever that year, earning only 12 saves.

That save total will be something Hader will need to provide a rebuttal for, considering he is a closer and doesn’t have nearly the gaudy save totals that Papelbon and other high level closers had to this point in their careers. Hader’s team will likely argue that he is an unusual and exceptional talent, one that is more deserving of special recognition of his unique talents, rather than compare him to others.

We haven’t seen many, if any, others like Hader in baseball history, which makes comparing him to other one-inning closers not as relevant.

Some of the numbers Hader has posted are eye-popping. He owns a career 2.42 ERA, has never posted a season ERA higher than 2.62 and owns a 0.85 career WHIP. For the past two seasons, he’s posted a higher than 15.0 K/9 and already has 349 career strikeouts. He’s pitched an immaculate inning and once got all eight outs in one appearance via strikeout.

Over his career, he’s struck out 44.6% of all batters faced. Since he’s joined the league, that’s the highest percentage in all of baseball. He also has the lowest xFIP, SIERA, opponent batting average, and K-BB% of any reliever in baseball over that time. He’s posted the second-highest Fangraphs WAR in that time, (behind Felipe Vasquez who is now in jail and essentially banned from MLB), so he basically has provided the most WAR of active MLB relievers over the past three years.

What do all of these stats point to? They point to Josh Hader being the best reliever in MLB over the time he’s been in the league. That’s exactly what his requested arbitration salary of $6.4MM aims to prove and that’s what all his stats support. With David Stearns already admitting that in public, Hader would be wise to use his GM’s words against him in the hearing.

Who Has The Edge?

In looking at recent arbitration history, players currently have the momentum in winning arbitration hearings, with players winning six times to four losses in 2019 and winning 12 times to 10 losses in 2018. In most of the cases involving high profile pitchers such as Trevor Bauer, Gerrit Cole, Ken Giles, and Blake Treinen, the players won.

Josh Hader appears to have the edge over the Brewers if this is to go to a hearing. Both sides can still come to an agreement prior to the hearing, but most teams follow a “file-and-trial” approach to arbitration now, and the Brewers are presumed to be one of those teams, but it’s not known for sure. David Stearns has only gone to one arbitration hearing as Brewers GM and that was with Chase Anderson. The Brewers won that case.

However, with Hader looking to be paid like baseball’s top reliever, he has plenty of statistics to back him up on that, plus the comments from David Stearns to further help his arbitration case.

There’s a big difference between the two sides, with the team filing at $4.1MM and Hader at $6.4MM, it’s going to be tough for the arbitrator to look at everything and think Hader is only worth $4.1MM. If the Brewers were a bit closer, they might have a chance, but it looks to me like this is Hader’s case to lose.

The one thing that could swing this in the Brewers direction is the Knebel argument. If they already know that Hader will be pushed out of the closer’s role upon Knebel’s return and there’s no chance he stays in there, they might be able to convince the arbitrator. But then again, Knebel is coming back from major surgery, has not pitched in a game yet, likely will still miss the first month of the season, and is far from a sure thing. Last time we saw him in 2018, he was a mess for half the season.

Plus, the Brewers have shown to be very open-ended when it comes to their pitching staff and will change up roles quite often, so arguing that they will lock in Knebel as the closer upon his return is a bit far-fetched in reality.

Again, all things considered, it looks like Josh Hader will be getting paid $6.4MM in 2020. He has a very strong case to bring to the arbitration hearing, and the Brewers don’t.

This will be an interesting case to watch, with Hader still allegedly a possible trade candidate, the chance for a settlement, and the arguments both sides will have to make.