Milwaukee Brewers 2020-2021 Complete Offseason Preview

Important Dates

These are some of the more important dates to know for the MLB offseason.

First day after WS ends: Trades are allowed once again and all pending free agents officially file for free agency. There’s a five day window where players are only allowed to negotiate with their team from 2020.

Fifth day after WS ends: This is when free agency officially begins. Players and teams can talk to anyone they want and deals are able to be signed. Although signings rarely experience the kind of rush normally seen in NFL or NBA free agency.

November 20th: This is the deadline for players to be added to the 40 man roster to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft at the end of the Winter Meetings. The additions must be made by 5 p.m. CT.

December 2nd: This is the non-tender deadline. By the end of this day, the Brewers must decide which arbitration-eligible players they will tender contracts to and keep and which ones they will non-tender and let reach free agency.

December 7-10: It’s the best week of the offseason: The Winter Meetings! This year’s Meetings are in Dallas and, should the pandemic allow and big in-person meetings are safe, every team’s front office will be down there at a hotel and this is where a lot of free agent and trade activity takes place.

December 10th: The Rule 5 Draft finishes out the Winter Meetings. This draft is where teams can select players from other teams’ minor league systems and put them on their own big league roster for a small fee. For the Brewers, this will be more likely about not losing any prospects to other teams rather than selecting someone.

January 15, 2021: For all the remaining arbitration-eligible players who have not agreed to a salary for the 2021 season, this is the day they will exchange salary figures with the team and file for their preferred salary.

February 1st, 2021: Arbitration hearings begin across baseball. If the Brewers were not able to agree to terms with any of their arbitration eligible players, it will go to a hearing. The Brewers went to a hearing against Josh Hader last year and won.

Brewers Free Agents

Brett Anderson

Last winter, the Brewers signed several players to one year contracts with club options for 2021. Brett Anderson was the only one who didn’t have a club option attached to the end of his deal. As such, he’s the only guaranteed free agent the Brewers have this winter.

Anderson put up a solid, yet unspectacular 2020 performance. He ate up some decent innings for the Brewers, but dealt with some blister issues. There’s a chance the Brewers could have interest in bringing Anderson back for a similar price, but his injury history is still of concern.

He signed a $5MM contract for 2020 and if he were to return, it’d likely be for a similar price. A qualifying offer is out of the question for him.

The Brewers do have some solid rotation depth and would have internal options such as Eric Lauer or Freddy Peralta to plug into the rotation should Anderson sign elsewhere.

Mutual Contract Options

Ryan Braun

This is simultaneously the easiest call the Brewers have this offseason and the most pressing question they’ll face. In case you didn’t already know, 2020 was the last guaranteed year of Ryan Braun‘s contract and he has a $15MM mutual option for 2021 with a $4MM buyout.

Given Braun’s injury history, age, and performance, declining that option is an easy call for the Brewers to make. With no guaranteed contract for next year, Braun has talked about possibly retiring after the 2020 season. He’s still unsure of his decision, and he will reportedly take until New Year’s or possibly spring training to decide if he wants to return.

The Brewers can’t put their whole offseason on hold waiting for his decision, especially when it could take that long. Should Braun decide that he wants to play in 2021, he’ll likely want to return to the Brewers instead of signing elsewhere. A Braun return, while it would be great for fans, could also complicate the already tight payroll situation, even if he’s only getting paid a few million dollars, but we’ll get to that later in the article.

While declining the option is obvious, whether Braun wants to play in 2021 or not is less clear. This will be a huge story for the Brewers offseason.

Club Option Decisions

Eric Sogard, Ben Gamel, Jedd Gyorko

The Brewers used to have several more players in this category after their strategy during the 2019-20 offseason. David Phelps was traded to Philadelphia while Justin Smoak and Brock Holt were designated for assignment. All that remains from that free agent group is Eric Sogard and Jedd Gyorko.

Ben Gamel, meanwhile, signed a one year deal with a club option last year to avoid arbitration. Gamel still has two years of team control remaining and if the Brewers decline his $2.55MM contract option this winter, he’ll still be under team control and would simply go through the arbitration process.

For Sogard and Gyorko, both of their options are worth $4.5MM while Sogard has a $500k buyout and Gyorko has a $1MM buyout. Based on 2020 performance, Gyorko seems like a sure bet to have his option picked up. Sogard, meanwhile, isn’t a clear cut case.

While Sogard did have some big moments in clutch situations and was everything the Brewers needed defensively, his slash line of .209/.281/.278 is not very appealing. While a full season next year could lead to a bounceback, is it worth paying $4.5MM to find out? That’s what Stearns is going to have to answer.

Brewers Arbitration Eligibles (11)

Manny Pina, Corey Knebel, Alex Claudio, Jace Peterson, Omar Narvaez, Orlando Arcia, Ryon Healy, Josh Hader, Brandon Woodruff, Daniel Vogelbach, Ben Gamel

Manny Pina, Corey Knebel, and Alex Claudio are all entering their final year of arbitration. Pina is going to be entering his age-34 season and is coming off knee surgery. He was the best offensive performing catcher the Brewers had in 2020 and is likely to be tendered.

The Brewers face tougher decisions with Knebel and Claudio. Knebel has been at a $5.125MM salary the last two years since he underwent elbow surgery in spring 2019. He came back in 2020, but while he showed flashes of his old self, he didn’t quite maintain that level of performance and was not among the trusted late inning arms for Craig Counsell this year.

Being another year removed from surgery should help Knebel in 2021, but would the Brewers be willing to pay over five million dollars for him coming off a year with little to no revenue? They probably should, and getting Knebel at his best self for that kind of salary is actually a good deal.

Last year, the Brewers non-tendered Claudio and then re-signed him later in the offseason to avoid having to go through the arbitration process. After another season with an ERA over 4.00, they might be inclined to non-tender him again and this time they may not re-sign him.

Jace Peterson somehow worked walks at an incredibly high clip in 2020, which is how he ended up with a .200/.393/.356 slash line. In 61 plate appearances, Peterson walked 15 times and got just nine hits. Despite the high OBP, the Brewers should non-tender him and look for better production elsewhere.

Omar Narvaez presents a tough decision for Brewers brass. On one hand, Narvaez improved a lot defensively this year and has a track record over several years as a strong hitter. On the other hand, he was a complete black hole on offense this year and a lot of analytics measurements don’t hold Narvaez in high regard. Narvaez had a $2.725MM salary for 2020 and should he get tendered a contract, he’s not likely to get much of a raise.

Orlando Arcia had to finally fight for his job this year, and he put up a pretty strong fight. Arcia finished with a .260/.317/.416 slash line and five homers. His .734 OPS this year was the best of his career. He’s likely to get tendered this offseason, especially after Luis Urias struggled offensively down the stretch.

Ryon Healy only played in four regular season games, had just one hit in seven at-bats, and was inexplicably the choice to bat cleanup in Game 2 of the Wild Card series. Even in a year where the Brewers got no offensive production out of the corner infield, Healy couldn’t crack the roster as a corner infielder. He’s a likely non-tender.

Josh Hader will enter his second year of arbitration and is an easy call to tender. Brandon Woodruff will go into arbitration for the first time and he’s also an easy decision to tender.

Daniel Vogelbach is eligible now as a Super-Two player and Ben Gamel has a club option for next year, but if that gets declined, he’s still arbitration eligible.

Brewers Positions Of Need

Catcher

In a season where nothing went right offensively at nearly every position, the catching group was by far the worst. Narvaez put up a putrid .176/.294/.269 slash line with a 53 OPS+ while Jacob Nottingham didn’t do much better, hitting .188/.278/.458 with a 93 OPS+. Nottingham had four home runs, which improved his slugging and OPS+ numbers, but he also struck out 20 times in 48 at-bats.

Manny Pina is likely to return in 2021, but the futures for Narvaez and Nottingham are unclear. Stearns wouldn’t commit to Narvaez returning next year and indicated that moving on was possible. Nottingham has been a top prospect for years but his offense has soured recently in the minors and that trend continued in 2020.

With prospects Mario Feliciano and Payton Henry getting close to big league ready, the Brewers could opt to keep Narvaez for another year or search on the free agent market for a short-term solution.

First Base

Justin Smoak wasn’t the answer the Brewers were seeking. Jedd Gyorko seemed to be a solid answer and Daniel Vogelbach also was a welcome addition. But will either hold down the starting first base job in 2021?

Should Gyorko’s contract option get picked up, he could see time at both first base and third base. For Vogelbach, his .328 batting average and .987 OPS was a welcome addition, but it was in just 58 at-bats and that small sample size is unlikely to hold up over a whole season.

In his All-Star year in 2019, Vogelbach hit just .208 but had 30 homers as well. The Brewers like power hitting first basemen but they’ve shown they’re willing to move on from someone if they’re a three true outcome type of hitter. Chris Carter in 2016 led the NL in home runs with 41, but he hit just .222 and struck out 206 times that year and the Brewers non-tendered him.

Can the Brewers depend on Vogelbach to hit like he did toward the end of 2020 through the whole 2021 season? He’s never been a .300-type hitter in the big leagues before, and if the Brewers feel they can’t trust his small sample size from 2020, then they may look elsewhere. However, there isn’t much on the free agent market at the position.

Third Base

The Brewers went with a cluster of options to handle third base in 2020 and, for the most part, it went poorly. They had a mix of Gyorko, Sogard, Holt, and Urias slated to split time over there. After Holt was DFA’ed and Gyorko was moved to first base, it was down to Sogard, Urias occasionally, and Jace Peterson over there.

Perhaps Gyorko could be a full time solution over there in 2021, but the Brewers are unlikely to go with that option based on their decision making history. They’re going to need to make an addition at this spot and get more than just a warm body.

There’s actually a decent class of free agent third basemen this year and a possibly strong trade market at the position as well.

Stearns is going to have to take advantage of that this offseason and find a way to inject some offense into this lineup and third base is a traditionally powerful offense position, although so is first base for that matter.

Starting Rotation Depth

The Brewers have the top of their rotation settled with Woodruff and Burnes leading the way. They have the hard part done, now the rotation just needs to be filled out.

While the Brewers have internal options and would be able to fill a rotation with the guys they currently have, there are improvements that could be made on this group.

Josh Lindblom is likely to return to his rotation role, but the struggles of Adrian Houser in 2020 raise questions about his future role and whether he’ll be able to earn a rotation job next year. Freddy Peralta is going to need more continued development to lock down a rotation spot and the same goes for Eric Lauer.

Depending on those guys to fill out the rotation lowers the floor for this group while adding someone like a Marcus Stroman or a Corey Kluber would raise the floor for this rotation. It doesn’t have to be those guys specifically, but adding an established veteran will raise the floor for this group and, depending on who it is, raise the ceiling as well.

The rotation isn’t a huge area of need, but it’s also a place to look. The biggest needs for this team heading into this offseason are at third base and catcher.

Rule 5 Eligible Players

Mario Feliciano, Zack Brown, Trey Supak, Payton Henry, Alec Bettinger, Dylan File, Lucas Erceg

Of the Brewers current Top 30 prospects list, these are the prospects eligible for the Rule 5 Draft that could be at risk of being selected in the major league portion of the draft.

Given his rise up the rankings, solid offensive development, and role as the potential catcher of the future for the Brewers, Mario Feliciano should be a lock to be protected.

Zack Brown was left unprotected last year and wasn’t selected, despite his then-status as the Crew’s No. 3 prospect. After a year in which we saw very little of Brown, will they run that risk again or protect him this time?

Trey Supak was added last year to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft, but was DFA’ed off the 40 man roster during the 2020 season. He was not claimed by anyone, but with another chance to grab him, will another team jump at the chance to select the big righty?

Payton Henry is another top catching prospect the Brewers have, and although he’s slightly behind Feliciano development-wise and lower in the prospect rankings, he may be someone to protect. Although he’s not ready for the big leagues yet and any selecting team would need to have him on the 26 man roster for the whole season.

Alec Bettinger and Dylan File are two pitching prospects who weren’t highly rated coming out of the draft but have performed well through the minor leagues. They might be worth protecting on the roster.

Lucas Erceg was an early selection in 2016, but he’s now 25 and his bat is gone. He started off strong in the lower levels of the minors but as he’s risen up the farm system, his offensive performance has gotten worse and worse. Since he hit Double-A and above, Erceg has struggled. He’s unlikely to get protected or selected.

Brewers Payroll Outlook

This will be the biggest question for every front office and team owner this offseason. After a year with no fan revenue and huge financial losses, how much will the team have to curtail spending on the payroll next year?

The Brewers are coming off back-to-back seasons being at an operating loss. They lost money in 2019 even with fans and lost a bunch more money in 2020. After a nearly $130MM payroll in 2019, the Brewers dropped down to what would’ve been around a $97MM payroll for 2020.

With the shortened season, they ended up paying less than that due to the pro-rated nature of salaries this year. But where can we expect the full season payroll to be at next year?

Stearns has already commented that payroll is likely to be a little bit tighter heading into 2021. With that being said, let’s assume the Brewers will be looking at a payroll at around $90-95MM for next year.

Currently, the Brewers have $55MM on the books for 2021 in guaranteed deals, with over $41MM of that tied up in three players (Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Avisail Garcia). Let’s say Gyorko’s and Gamel’s options get picked up, that brings them to $62MM in payroll.

Should Knebel and Hader get tendered an arbitration deal and don’t get traded, Knebel will likely still be above $5MM and Hader might jump up to $7MM or so, which brings us to $74MM in salary already.

Brandon Woodruff will be arb-eligible and he’s going to get several million dollars, let’s say $5MM as a conservative guesstimate, and then probably around $6MM combined between Orlando Arcia and Omar Narvaez if both return, that has us at $85MM in salary before any free agent or trade additions are made and before the pre-arbitration players are factored in.

What if Braun wants to return? He’s going to cost probably somewhere between $2-4MM on a one year deal.

Based on the look of this payroll structure, things are going to be very tight financially and the Brewers may be quickly priced out of their top targets in free agency this winter.

In order to make the additions they need, it looks like the Brewers may need to make some difficult cuts from their current payroll. A non-tender of Knebel or a trade of Josh Hader could be the easiest ways to accomplish this.

Trading Josh Hader makes the most sense in this regard because it could also bring back the offensive talent the Brewers need while clearing the payroll space. It knocks out two birds with one stone, if you will.

Will that happen? Who knows. But with the payroll picture the Brewers are currently looking at, it may be necessary.

How can you build a roster capable of winning a World Series? Stearns is once again going to try to figure out the answer to that question, but he’ll have to do so with less information than normal and less financial assets than normal.

Sound unfair? Perhaps, but every team in baseball is operating with the same lack of information and a depressed amount of financial assets available. This is where the best GMs in the league separate themselves from the average GMs in the league.

This offseason will be the biggest challenge any GM in baseball has ever faced. Although he’s among the youngest, Stearns is as prepared for this challenge as anyone.