Milwaukee Brewers Arbitration Projections For 2021 Season

Alex Claudio

Projection: $2.0MM – $2.3MM

In the 2020 season, Alex Claudio was signed to a $1.75MM salary after being non-tendered by the Brewers a few weeks prior. Claudio posted an ERA above 4.00 in his first season with the Brewers prior to that non-tender and then after coming back this year, he posted another ERA above 4.00 at 4.26.

Claudio has been serviceable, but hasn’t gotten back to the sub-3.00 ERAs that he posted over several years with the Rangers that the Brewers were hoping they could get him back to.

With tight budgets and another season below expectations, a non-tender is possible, if not likely, for Claudio at this salary level.

Ben Gamel

Projection: $1.7MM – $2.1MM

The interesting thing with Ben Gamel is that he has a club option for 2021 that would give him a $2.55MM salary while still being arbitration eligible. So if the Brewers decline his club option, they would still have contractual control over him and would simply go through arbitration with him.

Given Swartz’s projection here of $1.7MM-$2.1MM, it would appear likely the Brewers would decline Gamel’s option and go through arbitration to save some money. Things are going to be tight and the Brewers will need to save as much money as possible.

Gamel is a solid 4th outfielder option, and he’s likely to return next year, but it may be under arbitration instead of his club option.

Josh Hader

Projection: $4.5MM – $6.8MM

This will be the most important arbitration case the Brewers will deal with this offseason. Josh Hader, one of the top relievers in baseball, led the National League in saves in a shortened season. The counting numbers weren’t high, only 13 saves, but how much will the 60 game season impact whether that means a big raise or small raise?

That explains the wide gap in Hader’s salary projection. He lost his arbitration case last offseason and got a $4.1MM salary for the 2020 season. After another strong season in which his slider was used more often, Hader became a more complete pitcher, and he didn’t give up a hit until several weeks into the season.

Hader will be tendered, but will he be kept? Especially if his salary pushes to near $7MM for next year, that may be more than the Brewers are able to pay him and a trade could end up helping the Brewers in a couple of ways. It could reduce their payroll and add help to the rest of the roster.

But if his salary ends up in the lower half of this range, the Brewers may opt to hold on to Hader for 2021.

Ryon Healy

Projection: $1.0MM – $1.0MM

All three of Swartz’s projections have Ryon Healy at a $1.0MM salary. The Brewers signed Healy to a $1.0MM deal for 2020 and he only made seven at-bats during the regular season.

Healy didn’t play well in his opportunities, and despite the lack of production at the corner infield spots, he still couldn’t crack the 28 man roster.

Maybe the Brewers will give Healy another chance next year at a similar price, but he’s certainly not going to be getting more money than what he signed for in 2020.

Corey Knebel

Projection: $5.125MM – $5.125MM

Corey Knebel has been sitting at a $5.125MM salary for two years now and these projections make it look like it’ll be three years running for Knebel.

In 2019, Knebel agreed to a $5.125MM salary prior to undergoing elbow surgery. He was re-upped for 2020 at the same price, as is normal for players that missed a season due to injury, and things went decent, but not great.

In 15 games this year, Knebel posted a 6.08 ERA, which was inflated by a couple of rough outings in August as he dealt with a hamstring issue that he later went on the IL for. Since returning from the IL, Knebel was back to his fastball velocity he was at pre-surgery and looked like his old self overall.

Being another year away from elbow surgery should help Knebel keep his velocity up at the 97-98 MPH range and that should improve his statistics. It’s possible the Brewers might not want to spend that much money on a reliever without much of a guarantee that he’ll perform at previous levels.

Omar Narvaez

Projection: $2.725MM – $3.1MM

What a tough year for Omar Narvaez. He comes over to the Brewers from Seattle and essentially lost his starting job down the stretch to Jacob Nottingham because he couldn’t hit at the plate. Narvaez’s .176 average was the worst of his career.

Narvaez avoided arbitration with the Brewers last year with a $2.725MM salary and nothing in his 2020 performance would indicate he’s deserving of a big raise.

If there was a 162 game season, Narvaez likely would’ve been able to break out of his slump at some point, but it’s hard to estimate just how good those final numbers would’ve been then. If Narvaez does get a raise, it’s going to be minimal.

Stearns has not committed to Narvaez returning as the starting catcher in 2021 and there’s a chance he could get non-tendered, even if he wants to return at the same salary level.

Manny Pina

Projection: $2.0MM – $2.3MM

Manny Pina was the most productive Brewers catcher on offense in 2020 prior to a knee injury prematurely ending his season. Pina was playing on a $1.85MM contract in 2020 and is due a modest raise according to this projection.

Pina will be entering his final year of arbitration before free agency, and the Brewers need some certainty at the catcher position and Pina might be best suited to provide that.

Throughout his tenure with the Brewers, Pina has been a consistent presence at the plate and a great defensive catcher that works the pitching staff extremely well. It’s likely that Pina would be tendered a contract at this price range.

Brandon Woodruff

Projection: $2.3MM – $4.5MM

This was one of the big question marks for Brewers fans coming into this offseason. It’s the first year of arbitration eligibility for ace Brandon Woodruff, a Super-2 player, and it was obvious Woodruff is going to get a big raise, but the question was how big will the raise be.

Swartz’s projections have Woodruff pegged for anywhere between $2.3MM and $4.5MM for 2021. That’s not too bad of a salary for the Brewers considering how important Woodruff is to the team and how tight the budget will be.

If Woodruff’s arbitration salary ends up around the $2.3MM mark for his first year of eligibility, the Brewers will be absolutely pleased with that result. If it starts near that $4.5MM mark, that’d be great for Woodruff to line things up for big raises over the three more years of arbitration he would have.

Either way, Woodruff is going to make a lot more than the $633k salary he had in 2020.

Jace Peterson

Projection: $700k – $900k

The Brewers signed Peterson to a minor league deal in 2020 and he ended up getting more playing time at the big league level than anyone anticipated.

Cost isn’t going to be a prohibitive measure for Peterson coming back in 2021, but it’s the performance that might be. Peterson posted a .200 average this year with only nine hits and 20 strikeouts in 45 ABs.

He’s 30 years old, he’s been in the league for seven years, and there’s not much more to his ceiling. There’s virtually no chance he can repeat his walk rate from this year. Someone like Mark Mathias or a different waiver claim can provide similar or better performance for league minimum at $563k instead of $700k-$900k.

The Brewers have several arbitration eligible players and a lot of tough decisions to make with tendering some of them. The biggest raises will go to Hader and Woodruff, while several others will remain at similar salary levels.