Brewers: Five Most Likely Candidates to Be Non-Tendered This Offseason

LHP Alex Claudio

The Brewers find themselves in familiar territory when it comes to Alex Claudio this offseason, both in terms of his performance from 2020 compared to 2019 as well as his arbitration situation with the team.

Claudio was a workhorse for Milwaukee during the 2019 season, leading the league with 83 relief apperances. Still, they deemed a projected raise from $1.275MM to $2.2MM to be a bit much for a non-dominant reliever with a 4.06 ERA (4.92 FIP) and he was ultimately non-tendered by the team.

Milwaukee would bring him back at a discount, though, signing him to a one-year, $1.75MM contract. While Claudio didn’t lead the team in appearances again in 2020, he still got plenty of playing time for the Brewers, putting up similar numbers to 2019.

In 20 games, Claudio’s ERA jumped up a tad to 4.26, though his FIP dropped to 4.09. His WHIP also decreased a bit from year to year (1.306 to 1.263) and he showed few ill effects from the three batter minimum rule that many thought might affect him greatly last season.

Though his numbers weren’t terrible, they didn’t blow you away either. It’s entirely likely that the Brewers attempt the same move with him that they did last offseason. Even with lefty relievers being hot commodities, there’s a good chance it works out in Milwaukee’s favor yet again.

UTIL Jace Peterson

There wasn’t much bigger of a statistical oddity than Jace Peterson when it came to the 2020 Milwaukee Brewers. The midseason addition to the 40-man did one thing extremely well and that was get on base.

Peterson was second on the team with a .393 on base percentage, trailing just fellow midseason addition Daniel Vogelbach. He achieved that goal primarily through his propensity to draw the walk as he led all Brewers with a 24.6% walk rate.

That’s pretty much where the good news ends. Peterson finished the season going just 9 for 45 at the plate (.200) with just three of those hits going for extra bases. And though he led the team in walk rate, he also happened to have the third worst strikeout rate on the team as well (32.8%).

While the high on base percentage was nice and all, it’s an outlier when you look at his career performance. His highest mark prior to 2020 was a .350 OBP in 2016 with the Braves and his career OBP sits at just .317 even with last season factored in.

Peterson has the lowest projected arbitration number for the Brewers at a range of just $700k to $900k. So purely based on money, the Brewers could make the choice to hold on to him in 2021, at least to start.

But Milwaukee has a younger player with a similar skill set in Mark Mathias and a so far untapped resource in Billy McKinney, who was acquired late in 2020 and is on the 40-man roster. Both are pre-arbitration and are even cheaper. All of that could spell the end for Peterson.

OF Ben Gamel

Of all the the non-tender options on this list, Ben Gamel is probably the least likely to actually happen. Even though his numbers don’t wow you at first glance, he is a valuable resource to have around at his projected price.

With a different approach at the plate, Gamel came out of the gates hot during Summer Camp and carried that over into the regular season. In his first six games, he went 6 for 20 (.300) with four of his six hits going for extra bases: a double, a triple, and two homers, to be exact.

He tailed off significantly, though, with his average dropping all the way down to .143 at one point. Things would improve a bit toward the end of the season and he would finish 2020 with a .237/.315/.404. slash line.

Those numbers were enough for the Brewers to decline his $2.55MM contract option for 2021. It was the logical move since the team still holds his arbitration rights and projections put Gamel anywhere between $1.7MM and $2.1MM.

Gamel may not have stellar numbers, but his ability to back up every outfield position, and to do it well, make him much more worth the price. If Milwaukee can get him closer to the $1.7MM mark, it explains why he’s the least likely one on this list to be non-tendered.

All that said, the Brewers have two young, pre-arbitration outfielders on the 40-man in Tyrone Taylor and Corey Ray. Taylor didn’t look much worse than Gamel at the plate in limited 2020 action and would have Ray waiting in Triple-A as backup. As much sense as it makes to keep Gamel, the desire to save some money without losing much production could make them pull the trigger.

1B Daniel Vogelbach

This one would hurt for Brewers fans if it happened. Vogelbach became an immediate fan favorite after he was acquired midseason by Milwaukee, not just because of his classic Wisconsin-like build, but also because of his instant injection of offense for the Crew.

After struggling mightily for the Mariners and Blue Jays to begin his 2020 campaign, Vogelbach found new life as a Milwaukee Brewer. His .328/.418/.569 slash line helped propel the offense as did his four homers in just 19 games.

The question is whether those numbers are sustainable. Vogelbach has a .206/.332/.409 slash line for his career and even though he was named an All-Star in 2019, he still tailed off and finished that season slashing .208/.341/.439.

Of course if the Brewers think he can even split the difference between his 2020 numbers and his career marks, his projected arbitration price should be worth it. Vogelbach unexpectedly hit Super-2 status this offseason, but is only projected between $1.4MM and $1.9MM.

If the Brewers expect regression, though, they could go the free agent route. With all the 2021 contract options that were declined around baseball, more reliable players like Mitch Moreland and Carlos Santana have become available. If Milwaukee is willing to spend, Vogelbach could become expendable.

The Brewers still have three weeks to make their non-tender decisions and any free agent signings or trades that happen between now and then could change things. But if things stood the way they are now, these would be your most likely candidates to become free agents at the deadline.