Brewers: Three Free Agent Outfielders that Make Sense for Milwaukee
After Wednesday’s non-tender deadline, the free agent market saw an influx of outfield talent. These players appear to make sense for the Brewers and could fill a roster spot come Opening Day 2021.
There was a flurry of roster moves Wednesday night, as the Brewers, among other teams, made the final decision on which arbitration eligible players would be tendered a contract for 2021. Those who were not tendered, now enter the free agent market. Among those are many quality outfielders.
With the departure of Ryan Braun, and Ben Gamel being non-tendered, the Brewers have six outfielders on the 40-man roster. Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, and Avisail Garcia appear to be the starters, with Corey Ray, Tyrone Taylor, and Billy McKinney expected to compete for the additional spots on Milwaukee’s 26-man roster.
David Stearns has not been afraid to add outside talent, famously adding Yelich and Cain the same January evening. He also signed Avisail Garcia last offseason, when the Brewers had Yelich, Cain, Braun, and Gamel on the roster.
Here are a couple of recently non-tendered outfielders that make sense for the Brewers to pursue.
Kyle Schwarber
Once a highly touted prospect, Kyle Schwarber struggled in 2020. Entering his age-28 season, Schwarber has solidified his spot in Chicago lore, as well as an offense first, defense secondary player.
Schwarber anchored left field for the Cubs in 2020, struggling immensely, as he hit .188/.308/.393, and produced 0.4 fWAR. However, his exit velocity was in the 95th percentile, his hard hit % was the 86th percentile, and his Barrel % was in the 75th percentile.
His defensive outs above average placed him in the 2nd percentile.
Schwarber was projected to earn around $8MM per MLB Trade Rumors, and that price point would make him untouchable for the Brewers. But, there are writers who believe Schwarber could be a target.
The numbers on Schwarber do not look good, but he hits the ball hard, and in the launch angle era, that is the most important part. If MLB ever gives an answer on the 2021 DH, it is possible to see Schwarber split time between the outfield and as DH in Milwaukee, and be a solid additional outfielder for Milwaukee.
Nomar Mazara
Nomar Mazara, a former highly touted prospect, has been unable to live up to his potential in the Majors yet. The former White Sox and Rangers player enters free agency with five years of MLB service, no options remaining, and among the youngest outfielders on the market at only 25 years old (he turns 26 on April 26th).
A young player, highly touted, who has not lived to his potential? Sounds similar to Orlando Arcia. Mazara has a career wRC+ of 90, while his 2020 wRC+ was a feeble 68.
Mazara’s struggles have been consistent throughout his career. His wRC+ has never reached the league average of 100, but his offensive stats took a significant decline in 2020. Mazara has raw power, as seen in his hard hit % which was in the 90th percentile, and his exit velocity was in the 82nd percentile.
However, his Isolated Power, calculated by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage, was a measly 0.066 far below his career ISO of .190, league average is typically around .140. 2020 was a weird season that provided small sample sizes, which hopefully means Mazara’s extreme struggles will be viewed as an aberration.
Like Schwarber, Mazara provides mediocre to poor defense in right field, but perhaps the ballpark that helped Yelich break out could help Mazara.
Mazara has only played in right field since 2018, however his tools are too good to ignore. He was projected to earn near $6MM in arbitration and is likely to generate much interest, but should David Stearns and Matt Arnold find him in their price range, he could be a target.
Adam Duvall
Adam Duvall, who hit 16 home runs in 57 games, had a slugging percentage of .532, with a wRC+ of 116 was non-tendered by the Atlanta Braves Wednesday.
Duvall was projected to earn more than $4MM, and is 32. He spent a majority of his time in left field, and did see time in right as well as a single inning in center field. With pop, and lots of strikeouts, he appears as a match made in heaven for the Brewers.
Despite having a low exit velocity (38th percentile), Duvall barreled the ball 13.9% of the time, which was in the 89th percentile. Duvall will never hit for average, he is a career .232, and projected to stay that way, but a career .467 slugging percentage is nothing to sneeze at.
In addition to outfield, Duvall has experience playing both corner infield spots, albiet a small sample size, but his versatility would be utilized with Milwaukee. Especially with Jedd Gyroko, who split time between first and third base, being let go.
Similar to Schwarber and Mazara, Duvall is an offense first player, with servicable defense, but he could still be a valuable player to Milwaukee off the bench, and in the field when one of the regulars gets a day off.
It may be too much to expect Duvall to replicate his 40+ home run clip that he was on this season, but Miller Park does play more home run friendly than Truist Park according to 2020 Park Factors. Duvall, who did spend time in Cincinnati, does have a career .828 OPS in 95 career plate appearances in Miller Park.
Are any of these moves likely? It is tough to say, however there is value to be had on the market. It just takes a phone call and the right amount of money for Stearns to work his magic.