Brewers: Finding David Stearns’ Actual Batting Average As GM

Everyone knows David Stearns has a high batting average as the Milwaukee Brewers top baseball executive. But what is that batting average exactly?

We talk about it all the time. Whenever there’s a move that fans don’t understand or the media doesn’t understand, we simply repeat “David Stearns has a high batting average” and we, as Brewers fans, should trust his judgment. Even owner Mark Attanasio has repeated that phrase “David Stearns has a high batting average” over and over.

In the five seasons David Stearns has put together the Brewers roster, things have gone extremely well. The Brewers have made the postseason three times and, for the most part, the moves he has made have worked out in the Crew’s favor. So we can assume he has a good batting average.

But what exactly is that batting average?

We know it’s high, we hear that all the time. But what’s the actual number?

Those questions are what this story is set to answer.

David Stearns has been the Brewers top baseball executive, serving first as GM and now President of Baseball Operations, for five full seasons now and is embarking on his sixth offseason being in charge of constructing the Brewers roster.

That gives us a solid base to work with and a statistically significant enough sample size to draw conclusions about his batting average. Although Stearns and many others may view OPS as a better indicator of performance than batting average nowadays, we’re not going to try to ascertain a slugging percentage or what kinds of hits these moves were. That would be too complicated and arbitrary.

Yes, determining the Christian Yelich trade was a ‘home run’ is easy, but for the rest of them, that’s up for too much debate.

There are several categories of acquisitions, including waiver claims, free agents, and trades.

For the purposes of this story, I looked at every single waiver claim, free agent signing, and trade that David Stearns has made since he was named the Brewers GM back in September 2015 up through the end of the 2020 season. Anything done in the 2020-21 offseason, such as the recent trade of Corey Knebel, will not be included simply because we don’t know how it’ll work out yet.

Based on the results of the transaction, (how the player(s) performed, etc.) I categorized each move as a hit, a miss, or a draw. Draws can mean either a wash between both sides, adding nothing but subtracting nothing, or it’s too early to tell.

With that, let’s dig in.

Waiver Claims/Rule 5 Under David Stearns

Putting a batting average on waiver claims is difficult considering these players are almost always fringe roster guys that can end up being put back on waivers a few weeks later. So the “batting average” on these acquisition is inherently going to be lower than the other categories.

In his five seasons leading the Brewers, Stearns has won the waiver claim of 22 players that have suited up for the Brewers in some capacity. There have been some waiver claims (i.e. Ehire Adrianza) that were claimed in the offseason and then plucked off waivers again before the season started. Those picks won’t count because it’s impossible to come to a conclusion.

This section will also include any Rule 5 selections the Brewers have made.

2016 Season

• Junior Guerra – Hit
• Colin Walsh (Rule 5) – Miss
• Kirk Nieuwenhuis – Hit
• Josmil Pinto – Miss
• Andy Wilkins – Miss
• Sean Nolin – Miss
• Michael Kirkman – Miss
• Neil Ramirez – Miss
• Rob Scahill – Hit
• Ben Rowen – Miss

Stearns starts off strong with his first move as Brewers GM, claiming Junior Guerra off waivers. That was a hit.

Colin Walsh was a Rule 5 pick that was returned during the 2016 season. He didn’t stick around for the full year and that makes him a miss.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis had a fairly decent 2016 season with the Brewers with a .709 OPS, lasted into the 2017 season before being released. But he made it over a year and “Captain Kirk” was a key player on that 2016 team. For a waiver claim and what they were expecting, he delivered and this is a hit.

Rob Scahill posted a 2.45 ERA in 2016 for the Brewers after being claimed. He had a slightly less successful 2017 but he had some good moments in the bullpen and stuck around for a bit. This’ll be a hit.

Hits: 3  Misses: 7

2017 Season

• Jesus Aguilar – Hit
• Nick Franklin – Miss
• Stephen Vogt – Hit
• Aaron Brooks – Miss

Jesus Aguilar became an All-Star and was the starting first baseman in the 2018 postseason. This was a huge hit.

Stephen Vogt quickly provided a boost to the Brewers lineup and was a key member of the clubhouse. Adding Vogt was a huge hit.

Hits: 5  Misses: 9

2018 Season

• Alec Asher – Miss
• Jordan Lyles – Hit
• Ariel Hernandez – Miss

Alec Asher pitched in two games for the Brewers and didn’t give up a run, but he wasn’t long for the roster. Since he didn’t stick around, it goes as a miss.

Jordan Lyles proved to be an effective arm for the Brewers coming out of the bullpen. He was solid again a year later as a starter, but we’ll get to that later. This goes down as a hit.

Hits: 6  Misses: 11

2019-2020 Seasons

• Donnie Hart – Draw
• Eric Yardley – Hit
• Ronny Rodriguez – Miss
• Daniel Vogelbach – Hit
• Billy McKinney – Draw

Donnie Hart was picked up early in 2019, pitched well as a lefty out of the pen in 6.2 IP, but the Brewers sent him down and then DFAed him a few months later. He was a good pickup, but there wasn’t room for him on the roster, so it goes as a draw.

Despite the Brewers struggles in the infield, Ronny Rodriguez could not crack the expanded roster and is now a free agent. This was a miss.

Billy McKinney was claimed off waivers towards the end of the year but it’s too soon to tell if he’ll be a hit or a miss, so he goes as a draw for now.

Hits: 8  Misses: 12 Draws: 2

When it comes to waiver claims, David Stearns has a .409 batting average.

For claiming fringe roster guys and spending a few of these years far down on the waiver wire, getting hits on 40% of them is pretty good.

Now on to free agency.

David Stearns’ Batting Average In Free Agency, Part 1

Free agency can encompass both major league free agents and players signed to minor league contracts. There’s a big difference between signing someone to a major league deal and a minor league deal. For the purposes of this article, it was important to filter out the minors deals.

As important as minor league deals are in player acquisition, determining a batting average for that group is impossible. If they’re signed to minor league deals and play well in the minors, but not earn a call up, would that go as a hit or a miss? For that reason, we will be looking strictly at Stearns’ batting average on major league contracts given out to free agents.

There are some highlights from minor league deals that should be pointed out, however. Hernan Perez was signed back by Stearns on a minors deal after being claimed earlier in 2015 by Doug Melvin. Blaine Boyer was a solid hit in 2016, Ji-Man Choi and Wade Miley were productive, to say the least, in 2018, while Jay Jackson and Justin Topa were signed in 2019 and turned out to be good.

When it comes to major league signings, Stearns has signed 27 free agents to big league deals. How has he done?

2016 Season

• Chris Carter – Hit
• Carlos Torres – Hit

Chris Carter may have struck out a lot and he may have been non-tendered at the end of the 2016 season, but that man slugged 41 homers to lead the National League. For Stearns’ first big league signing on a team that was embarking on a rebuild, this is a hit.

Carlos Torres was a productive member of the Brewers bullpen, posting a 2.73 ERA in 72 games in 2016. He had a slightly less productive 2017, but he was a good addition.

Stearns is batting 1.000 so far.

2017 Season

• Eric Thames – Hit
• Tommy Milone – Miss
• Eric Sogard – Hit
• Neftali Feliz – Miss
• Jared Hughes – Hit

Stearns starts off strong once again, signing slugging first baseman Eric Thames to a three year deal. This ended up a big hit.

Eric Sogard, the first time around, was a huge hit in Milwaukee. That one was a good signing.

Neftali Feliz was kind of a reclamation project, having been a star closer for a bit with the Rangers before falling off for a few years. Feliz tried to hold down a closer’s role again but he just couldn’t do it. This was a miss.

Jared Hughes was signed right at the beginning of the season and he posted a 3.02 ERA that year for Milwaukee. A solid addition indeed, he goes as a hit.

Hits: 5  Misses: 2

2018 Season

• Jhoulys Chacin – Hit
• Boone Logan – Miss
• Lorenzo Cain – Hit
• Matt Albers – Miss
• Dan Jennings – Hit

Despite thoughts that the Brewers might get involved at the top of the free agent pitching market that winter, David Stearns signed Jhoulys Chacin as his big rotation addition. It ended up working out quite well as Chacin had a great 2018 season. That goes down as a hit.

Matt Albers was looking like a hit for the first two months of the 2018 season, then he was practically un-pitchable. He struggled down the stretch in 2018 and after returning for the 2nd year of his contract in 2019, his struggles continued. Albers will go down as a miss.

Dan Jennings was another bullpen addition at the beginning of the regular season and Jennings had a very solid year in Milwaukee with a 3.22 ERA. He was a hit.

Hits: 8  Misses: 4

David Stearns’ Batting Average In Free Agency, Part 2

2019 Season

• Cory Spangenberg – Draw
• Yasmani Grandal – Hit
• Jake Petricka – Miss
• Mike Moustakas – Hit
• Gio Gonzalez – Hit

Cory Spangenberg signed a split contract, spent most of the year in the minor leagues, but came up for 32 games toward the end of the year. Spangenberg’s overall numbers weren’t that great, .232 average with .635 OPS and a 37.8% strikeout rate, but he did have some big hits and big plays in very important moments down the stretch in 2019. Because of that, he’ll go as a draw.

Jake Petricka only threw eight innings for the Brewers and then was shipped elsewhere for nothing. That goes as a miss.

Gio Gonzalez spent the final month of 2018 with the Crew and then signed as a free agent with the Yankees. They didn’t want to put him on their big league roster so he was released and the Brewers snatched him up. He also played extremely well in 2019 with a 3.50 ERA.

Hits: 11  Misses: 5  Draws: 1

2020 Season

• Alex Claudio – Miss
• Brett Anderson – Hit
• Josh Lindblom – Draw
• Avisail Garcia – Draw
• Ryon Healy – Miss
• Justin Smoak – Miss
• Eric Sogard – Miss
• Jedd Gyorko – Hit
• David Phelps – Hit
• Brock Holt – Miss

By far, this was Stearns’ worst offseason in free agency. It started with Alex Claudio, coming off a non-tender, Stearns signed him back and he posted another 4.00+ ERA and was non-tendered yet again this year. Another miss.

Brett Anderson ate up some innings as a lefty in the rotation and provided some veteran leadership. That is exactly what Stearns signed him to do and that’s what the Brewers got. Anderson will go as a hit.

Josh Lindblom had a slightly rough initial transition back to MLB, ending 2020 with a 5.16 ERA. But over his final five outings, Lindblom had a 2.45 ERA. He was starting to settle back in, and it may take more time to get some clarity since this was a three year deal, so he’ll go down as a draw for now.

Avisail Garcia is another one that’s too early to call. His first year as a Brewer didn’t go as planned as his power suddenly disappeared. Especially for the salary he’s getting, the Brewers need more production from him. Whether this goes as a hit or a miss will depend on his 2021 season.

Ryon Healy and Justin Smoak were signed to help out at first base. Healy had seven at-bats all year and Smoak was designated for assignment before the year was up. Both were huge misses.

Hits: 14  Misses: 10  Draws: 3

When it comes to free agent signings, Brewers GM David Stearns has a .574 batting average.

Prior to the 2020 season, Stearns actually had a .676 batting average in free agency. Last year was a bit of a slump for him.

Now let’s look to how Stearns has done in trades.

David Stearns’ Batting Average On Trades, Part 1

Over his five years as the Brewers top executive, David Stearns has completed 45 trades. He has made trades with 22 teams, although that number is now up to 46 trades and 23 teams after his recent deal with the Dodgers for Corey Knebel.

However, since that move just happened and there hasn’t been a chance to see results, it won’t be included in this article.

For those curious, the teams Stearns has traded with most often are the Seattle Mariners (5 trades), Texas Rangers (4), and Chicago White Sox (4).

With that said, let’s get started on the list.

2016 Season

• Francisco Rodriguez to Detroit for Javier Betancourt and Manny Pina – Hit
• Cy Sneed to Houston for Jonathan Villar – Hit
• Luis Sardinas to Seattle for Ramon Flores – Draw
• Adam Lind to Seattle for Freddy Peralta, Carlos Herrera, Daniel Missaki – Hit
• Jason Rogers to Pittsburgh for Keon Broxton, Trey Supak – Hit
• Trevor Seidenberger to San Diego for Rymer Liriano – Draw
• Jean Segura, Tyler Wagner to Arizona for Chase Anderson, Aaron Hill, Isan Diaz – Hit
• Khris Davis to Oakland for Bubba Derby, Jacob Nottingham – Miss
• Cash to Pirates for Jhan Marinez – Hit
• Aaron Hill to Boston for Aaron Wilkerson, Wendell Rijo – Hit
• Jonathan Lucroy, Jeremy Jeffress to Texas for Lewis Brinson, Luis Ortiz, Ryan Cordell – Hit
• Will Smith to San Francisco for Phil Bickford, Andrew Susac – Miss

Stearns made a lot of trades in his first year as GM and almost all of them went well. K-Rod was traded for the final time by the Brewers and he brought back Manny Pina, who has been an excellent catcher for the Brewers ever since. That was a hit.

Luis Sardinas for Ramon Flores was a complete wash. Sardinas didn’t do much of anything for Seattle and Flores didn’t do much of anything for Milwaukee. Neither side wins, it’s a draw.

Stearns makes another deal with Seattle, sending first baseman Adam Lind over for three lottery ticket teenage pitching prospects. The Freddy Peralta lottery ticket had a jackpot in it. Was Stearns lucky or good? Either way, it’s a hit.

Rymer Liriano was looking good and this was looking like a hit, but he got hit in the face with a pitch towards the end of spring training and missed the whole season. It’s extremely unlucky, but because of what happened, this has to end in a draw.

Jean Segura needed a change of scenery, and the Brewers brought in Chase Anderson, who was good for a number of years, Aaron Hill, a solid third baseman, and Isan Diaz, who was eventually traded for Christian Yelich. This goes as a hit for Stearns.

After an amazing streak of hits or draws, Stearns comes to his first miss, the Khris Davis deal. Bubba Derby has yet to make his big league debut and Jacob Nottingham has disappointed. Meanwhile Davis has thrived with Oakland. This is a miss.

Stearns had to pivot to Texas, sending Jeremy Jeffress went along Lucroy with in this trade and the Brewers got back three big prospects, who ended up getting traded in other big deals. Meanwhile Lucroy and Jeffress didn’t do what Texas expected. This is a win for Stearns.

Smith pitched well for the Giants for the next few years while Andrew Susac didn’t do much of anything and Phil Bickford has taken a long time to develop, dealing with a lot of setbacks. This is a miss for Stearns.

HIts: 7  Misses: 2  Draws: 2

Now let’s move on to part two of Stearns’ many trades.

David Stearns’ Batting Average On Trades, Part 2

2017 Season

• Tyler Thornburg to Boston for Travis Shaw, Mauricio Dubon, Josh Pennington, Yeison Coca – Hit
• Martin Maldonado, Drew Gagnon to Los Angeles(AL) for Jett Bandy – Miss
• Damien Magnifico to Baltimore for Oliver Drake – Hit
• Garrett Cooper to New York for Tyler Webb – Miss
• Ryan Cordell to Chicago for Anthony Swarzak – Hit
• Tayler Scott to Texas for Jeremy Jeffress – Hit
• Eric Hanhold to New York(NL) for Neil Walker – Hit

Stearns starts off with another big hit, turning two months of Tyler Thornburg as the closer into a highly productive third baseman, and a couple prospects. Thornburg got injured and never really got going in Boston.

In a swap of catchers, the Brewers got the worse end of the Maldonado/Bandy trade. Bandy didn’t do much while Maldy has been a solid starter for years now.

The Brewers had a productive Triple-A first baseman in Garrett Cooper and nowhere to play him with Thames and Aguilar on the roster. So trading him made sense, but Tyler Webb gave up a grand slam in his first game and didn’t last much longer after that. This will go as a miss for Stearns.

Hits: 12  Misses: 4  Draws: 2

2018 Season

• Lewis Brinson, Isan Diaz, Monte Harrison, Jordan Yamamoto to Miami for Christian Yelich – Hit
• Cash to Chicago(AL) for Tyler Saladino – Hit
• Andrew Susac to Baltimore for Cash – Hit
• Wendell Rijo to New York(AL) for Erik Kratz – Hit
• Ji-Man Choi to Tampa Bay for Brad Miller – Miss
• Kodi Medeiros, Wilber Perez to Chicago(AL) for Joakim Soria – Hit
• Brett Phillips, Jorge Lopez to Kansas City for Mike Moustakas – Hit
• Jonathan Villar, Luis Ortiz, Jean Carmona to Baltimore for Jonathan Schoop – Miss
• Bryan Connell, Johan Dominguez to Chicago(AL) for Xavier Cedeno – Hit
• KJ Harrison, GIlbert Lara to Washington for Gio Gonzalez – Hit
• Demi Orimoloye to Toronto for Curtis Granderson – Hit

Tyler Saladino only cost a little cash and he was solid for that price. They also got some cash back by sending away Susac. Good calls on both those moves.

Choi forced his way onto a crowded roster but ran out of playing time. He was traded for Brad Miller, who didn’t do much in Milwaukee. Meanwhile, Choi has blossomed into a huge player for Tampa. Stearns was on the losing end of this deal.

David Stearns called the Schoop trade a miss himself after he non-tendered him later that year.

Rookie ball pitchers for Cedeno, who was a solid addition is a hit, as were the additions of Gio Gonzalez and Curtis Granderson.

Hits: 21  Misses: 6  Draws: 2

David Stearns Overall

We’ve looked at waivers, we’ve looked at free agency, and we’ve looked at trades. Stearns has been wildly successful as a GM in terms of how his teams have performed.

Stearns’ .772 batting average with trades is very good. Although it’s hard to know just how good that batting average really is unless it’s compared to other GMs and how well they do in trades. But that’s way beyond the scope of this article. It’s fair to assume that winning on 77% of your trades is up near the top.

Free agency was another strong one, although it looked stronger before his 2020 crop. With waivers, there’s only so much that can be done, but Stearns does have some big successes.

There have been 93 transactions that we’ve reviewed from the last five years. 54 of them have been marked as ‘hits’. Eight waiver claims, 14 free agents, and 32 trades make up the hits category. 30 moves have been ‘misses’, eight of them trades, 10 of them free agents, and 12 of them waiver claims.

Nine moves have been marked as draws with four of them being trades, three free agents, and two waiver claims.

Combined together, this gives David Stearns a .629 overall batting average as the Brewers top baseball executive.

Brewers fans knew Stearns had a high batting average, and now we know how high it actually is. When Stearns makes a move, it’s been positive nearly 63% of the time.

Things such as waiver claims have dropped this overall number down, unfairly so, some may argue. If we take out the waiver claims and just look at major league free agent signings and trades, then that takes us down to 71 transactions.

Of those 71 transactions: 46 are hits, 18 are misses, and seven are draws. Putting those numbers together would give Stearns a .697 batting average on trades and free agents. Just about seven out of 10 moves in those avenues have been positive for the Brewers and Stearns.

As Mark Attanasio and many others have said, David Stearns has a very high batting average. Now we know just how high that batting average is in waivers, in free agency, in trades, and in all of them combined.

The Brewers hired David Stearns to build the Brewers up into a perennial contender, and if he keeps up these numbers, that’s the way things will stay in Milwaukee.