Brewers: Constructing The Crew’s Perfect Lineup For 2021

Batting Second: LF Christian Yelich

Back in his customary second spot in the batting order is Christian Yelich. The Brewers signed him to a giant contract extension back in March, oh how long ago that seems right now.

Even though the 2020 season was a rough one for Yelich, hitting just .205/.356/.430 with a 30.8% strikeout rate. That was the highest strikeout rate, lowest batting average, and lowest OBP of his career.

Yelich had 12 homers on the year but only 22 RBIs, which goes back to the point of the lack of production from the leadoff position. There was no one on base ahead of Yelich for him to even bring around to score in 2020. The Yelich-Cain duo at the top of the order worked extremely well in 2018 and 2019 and it should do so again in 2021.

Yelich was watching a lot of pitches go by and wasn’t aggressive early in the count like he had been in 2018 and 2019. His swing percentage dropped and he got himself into a lot of bad counts.

For whatever reason, Yelich wasn’t himself in 2020, but he’s too good of a hitter for this to be expected going forward.

Despite all his struggles, Yelich’s .786 OPS is still better than most hitters and his 111 OPS+ was the worst of his career, and still 11% above a league average hitter. As Aaron Rodgers once said, “A down year for me is a career year for most”. While Rodgers was referring to quarterbacks, the same could go for Yelich and other hitters. So many guys end up with big contracts if they put up one season with a 111 OPS+.

The bottom line is, Yelich will be fine. He seems like the kind of guy who needs a crowd and needs to feel the energy of a stadium to perform to his highest levels and not having that in 2020 likely hurt him. By the time the season starts in 2021, there’s likely (hopefully) to be at least some fans allowed into the stadium even if it’s not 100% capacity. That should help Yelich and many others out.

Batting Third: 2B Keston Hiura

The man can hit.

When Keston Hiura was drafted in 2017, that’s what Brewers fans were told. When Hiura was called up in 2019, that’s what Brewers fans saw with their own eyes. Even though 2020 was a rough season for Hiura as well, the ability to hit is still there.

In 2019, Hiura hit .303/.368/.570 with 23 doubles, 19 homers, a .938 OPS, and 138 OPS+ in just 84 games. Hiura was as advertised and expectations were high heading into his first full season as the starting second baseman.

Unfortunately, in 2020, Hiura may have also suffered from the lack of a crowd as well because his offensive numbers took a nosedive. Hiura hit just .212/.297/.410 although with 13 homers, but just an 88 OPS+. He also struck out 85 times, which led the National League and his strikeout rate spiked to 34.6%.

Part of this can be attributed to the circumstances of the 2020 season and part could also be attributed to the fact that this was Hiura’s sophomore season in the big leagues. Pitchers had a full year of film study on him now and they figured out different ways to attack him at the plate. Hiura will need to make adjustments going forward.

It was also hard for Hiura to adjust in-game last year since players weren’t allowed any video access after their at-bats to see what went right or wrong. That’s something that should hopefully change in 2021 and with another year of experience himself, Hiura should be right again.

Yelich will need to be protected in the batting order and Hiura is the best candidate for that job. Hiura possesses a combination of hitting for average and hitting for power that is difficult to find. Although he will strike out often, he’s a big threat in the heart of the order and when he’s on his game, he’s a dangerous hitter.

Batting Fourth: DH Daniel Vogelbach

In the perfect, ideal situation in 2021, there will be a DH spot. The debate on whether or not there should be a DH is not the point. Most teams expect this to happen, the players want it to happen, and a lot of NL teams after having the DH in 2020 want it to happen as well.

The Brewers agreed to a contract with Daniel Vogelbach and have stated in the past that they view Vogelbach as a DH going forward.

After being claimed off waivers late in the 2020 season, Vogelbach hit .328/.418/.569 with four home runs in 67 plate appearances. He walked eight times and struck out 18 times.

Previously in his career, Vogelbach hasn’t been able to put out numbers like that over a whole season and there is likely to be some regression to the mean for Vogey. For most of his career, Vogelbach’s batting average has hovered just above the .200 mark.

Although after coming over to the Brewers, Vogelbach did mention that he made some adjustments and did some things that he didn’t do in previous seasons that improved his contact ability. Perhaps those adjustments will be able to carry over into 2021 and raise his level of play over a statistically significant sample size.

It’s difficult to draw much of a conclusion from what Vogelbach did over 67 plate appearances, but if he feels he’s doing things differently than before and has improved his hitting ability, then he deserves the opportunity to prove it over a full season in 2021.

He seems like the prime candidate for the cleanup spot for the Brewers given his power ability. In 2019, he hit 30 home runs for the Mariners. You can never have enough 30 home runs per season hitters in your lineup if you’re the Milwaukee Brewers.

A middle of the Brewers lineup with Yelich, Hiura, and then Vogelbach has loads of power potential and the ability to explode for runs at any moment.

Batting Fifth: 1B C.J. Cron

Here’s our first free agent addition to the lineup. With Vogelbach taking up the DH spot, the Brewers need someone at first base and C.J. Cron is an everyday option that provides power and hitting ability.

In 2018, Cron hit .253 with 30 home runs for the Tampa Bay Rays. Then in 2019 with the Minnesota Twins, Cron hit .253 again with 25 home runs.

For 2020, Cron signed with the Tigers and had four home runs through the first 13 games of the season, which was a great pace. But unfortunately a knee injury ended his 2020 season early and we didn’t get a bigger sample size this year.

However, the Brewers should have a big enough sample size from the previous few seasons to know that Cron has a solid hitting ability and plenty of power. Cron is another guy capable of hitting 30 home runs a season. As previously stated, you can never have enough guys that can hit 30 homers a season in your lineup. Yelich, Hiura, Vogey, and Cron all have that potential and would be a dangerous middle of the order.

To make this happen, the Brewers would need to sign Cron first, obviously. He’s likely to be signed on a one year deal this winter given that’s what he’s been under the past couple of seasons and he’s coming off a knee injury.

Cron signed for $6.1MM with the Tigers last year and the cost could be similar or slightly lower for 2021 because of that injury and how the marketplace is shaking out. Even if he does cost a little more, he’ll be well worth it over the other options. Cron has a higher floor and higher ceiling than Justin Smoak or other similar options on the market.

Could Stearns look again at a one year deal with a club option for a second season? It certainly wouldn’t be surprising if they tried that with Cron.

He’d be the perfect free agent fit from this class and he’d fit right into the fifth spot in the order as a right handed power hitter behind the left-handed Vogelbach.

Batting Sixth: RF Avisail Garcia

Avisail Garcia‘s first season in a Brewers uniform didn’t quite go as planned. After hitting .282 with 20 homers and a 112 OPS+ in 2019, Garcia’s 2020 season was a dud. He finished with a .238 batting average, just two home runs, and a 79 OPS+.

Garcia’s now entering the final guaranteed year of his contract and will be paid $10.75MM in 2021. He has a club option for $12MM for 2022 and if he wants that option to get picked up, he’s going to need a strong season in 2021.

The addition of Cron pushes Garcia down to the sixth spot in the batting order. He should have plenty of RBI opportunities there and while he isn’t expected to be the biggest power threat, he can provide between 15-20 homers like he has previously in his career. He’s less of a power threat than Cron and Vogelbach, which is why he drops a little.

Garcia will move back to right field now that Cain is back and perhaps going back to his more comfortable position will make him more comfortable at the plate. Changing positions is never easy, especially doing it on the fly at the big league level, and it likely impacted his performance at the plate.

There was a lot of pressure on Garcia to fill the void that Cain left in center field defensively that his offense seemed to take a back seat.

This is a chance for Garcia to reset himself. Things will (hopefully) be back to normal in the 2021 season, both when it comes to his position in the field and the circumstances in which the season operates. He’s got one guaranteed year and then a club option for next season. This is going to be a big year for Garcia and being in a contract year could push him to perform better as well.

Batting Seventh: 3B Maikel Franco

Here’s the second free agent addition to this lineup. The Brewers need an addition at third base. Currently, Luis Urias is penciled in there on the depth chart, but he’s in line for a big battle for the starting shortstop job with Orlando Arcia. Urias also isn’t much of a power threat, but Maikel Franco is.

Franco put up a strong season in Kansas City, playing in all 60 games. In those 60 games, Franco had a .278/.321/.457 slash line with eight homers and a 109 OPS+.

He’s not a big OBP guy, and he doesn’t draw a lot of walks, but Franco also doesn’t strike out much either and has 15-25 HR a season potential.

The Brewers need some thump at the third base position and that’s something Franco provides. The free agent market is thin on options that can either have a big impact or be in the Brewers price range. Guys like Justin Turner or DJ LeMahieu would help, but will cost far more than the Brewers can afford.

Of the remaining options, Franco probably has the most impactful bat and he should be in the Crew’s price range. He’s also among the youngest options at the position on the market.

Defensively, Franco isn’t the best third baseman and he has an extremely limited range. But with either Orlando Arcia or Luis Urias at shortstop, his poor defense can be somewhat mitigated. He also has some experience at first base and can fill in at the other corner spot if needed.

He was non-tendered by the Phillies after 2019 and signed with the Royals for $2.95MM last year. The Royals just non-tendered him a few weeks ago, making him a free agent for the second time.

The Brewers should be able to bring him in on a short-term deal and plug this hole. He provides thump at the bottom of the order and contact ability. Not having enough guys with the ability to just put the ball in play is part of what hurt the Brewers in 2020, which makes Franco a good pickup to make and slot in the seventh spot.

Batting Eighth: C Omar Narvaez

After an extremely rough 2020 season, Omar Narvaez returns to the starting job behind the plate in 2021. He was tendered a contract and agreed to a deal with the Brewers at a slight discount from what arbitration was projecting him to earn. The Brewers will need him to perform up to the standards he set from 2016-2019.

Over the years, Narvaez has been a solid contributor, generally hitting around the .270-.280 mark with a 119 OPS+ in each of the last two seasons.

2020 is more likely an offensive anomaly for Narvaez than it’s a sign of things to come. Narvaez unlocked some power in 2019, hitting 22 homers. In 2020, Narvaez hit just two of them. We know the power is in there, and he’s proven he can get base hits at a high clip, it’s just a matter of tapping into it again.

Narvaez will be near the bottom of the order again and even if he starts to hit better than he did in 2020, given the other options added to the lineup, he’ll stick down around the eighth spot.

If Narvaez does get back to his old self, then he’s going to make for an excellent eighth-place hitter. Most teams would love to get that kind of production that 2018-19 Narvaez put up from their eight-hole hitter.

He has the starting job over Manny Pina and Luke Maile. The only way someone else takes this job from Narvaez is if Narvaez continues to struggle in 2021. Jacob Nottingham essentially took most of the reps during the month of September, but his offensive numbers weren’t great either, and now with the addition of Maile and the fact Nottingham is out of minor league options put him in a rough spot with this roster crunch.

If the Brewers can unleash the 2018-19 Narvaez, then that changes the entire outlook on this offense.

Batting Ninth: SS Luis Urias

Nope, this is not Orlando Arcia. For this perfect lineup exercise, we’re going to have Luis Urias winning the shortstop battle with Arcia in spring training.

Urias got off to a hot start at the plate over his first month with the Brewers before a two-week slump to end the year soured his offensive stats. Urias has a much better pedigree as a hitter than Arcia does and that should help him win the job.

Yes, Arcia had a career-best season in 2020, and he made a lot of improvements, but his best season was just a 96 OPS+. His consistency improved, but there was still a lot left to be desired.

Urias hasn’t had a ton of opportunities at the big league level to be playing every single day, but when he’s done so in the minors, he’s been excellent. The Brewers believe in his hitting ability and his ceiling is just higher than Arcia’s.

Down the road, Urias could be a solid option to bat leadoff instead of batting at the bottom of the order, but with Cain still under contract and coming back with fresh legs, Urias will start off down in the nine-hole.

From here, Urias can help turn the lineup over and ensure there’s someone on base for Cain and Yelich at the top of the order to help drive in more runs.

More players being on base for Cain and Yelich is always a good thing. If the DH is back, which it will be for this exercise, that makes it easier for the Brewers to have guys on base for the top of the order. If the pitchers are hitting again, then it’ll be tougher.

Urias presents the best option for the Brewers to strengthen their offensive output and rounds out the Crew’s perfect lineup for the 2021 season.

There’s still a lot of roster construction left, and the Brewers will need to find answers at first base and third base. Cron and Franco look like the best options on the market and they make this list.