Brewers: 5 Reasons to be Optimistic Going into 2021

2020 sucked. But luckily, it came to an end this week, and we get to start anew in 2021. 2020 was also a rough season for the Brewers, however there are reasons to believe 2021 will be better in Milwaukee.

There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic for the 2021 Brewers season.

1. Dual Aces

The Brewers have struggled to have a bona fide ace since Yovani Gallardo was traded. Even before then, Gallardo battled injuries. It may not be since Zack Greinke wore the Brewer blue that the Crew had a true ace. Luckily going into 2021, they have two: Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes.

Burnes finished in 6th in the Cy Young voting in 2020, despite falling ⅓ of an inning short of qualifying for the season. His resurgence in 2020 was one of the best stories in baseball this past season.

He shifted from heavily relying on his four-seam fastball, to relying predominantly on his sinker and cutter. And the results speak for themselves. Burnes was able to translate his already high spin rates into success on the mound, having one of the highest K% in the league (13.12 K/9), and a low 2.11 ERA, and an even lower 2.05 FIP.

Woodruff can blow you away with a fastball, or tie you up with a curveball, all while avoiding barrels. After becoming a rotation mainstay in 2019, Woodruff followed up his breakout with a spectacular 2020 season.

Woodruff was nearly similar in his stats to 2019, striking out nearly the same K/9 (10.58 vs 11.12), walking at a nearly identical rate as before (2.22 vs 2.20), but he did keep the ball on the ground more, seeing an increase from 44.6% to 49.4%. For Woodruff, he lowered his ERA to 3.05, and was worth more fWAR per inning than in the 2019 season (.027 vs .029).

In the past, the Brewers have struggled to develop quality starting pitching, however with Burnes and Woodruff they have the top 1-2 punch in the division. Both are young, home-grown, under club control for several years, and have elite stuff that will keep the Brewers in games when they are on the mound.

2. The Electric Dudes 2.0

As if having two elite starters in the rotation wasn’t good enough, in the bullpen the Brewers have the past three NL Reliever of the Year winners, two-time winner Josh Hader and 2020 winner as well as National League Rookie of the Year winner Devin Williams, ready to go. Along with them, feel-good story, and pitch-well story, Justin Topa.

Hader has been mentioned in trade rumors for nearly as long as he has been dominant, however, he does not appear to be going anywhere. Between those three guys, the Brewers bullpen is going to be fierce.

Josh Hader has been the best reliever in the game for multiple seasons now, and pairing him with Devin Williams and possibly the greatest changeup of all-time is going to benefit both pitchers. Instead of teams having to brace themselves to face Hader, Williams also enters the equation.

It may be asking too much for Devin Williams to repeat his 2020 performance, and as his exceptionally low BABIP shows, he may be due for a return to the mean. However, having another elite arm in will take the pressure off of Josh Hader to always be the guy Counsell turns to.

The Brewers’ ability to seemingly plug anyone in and make them into an elite reliever also could lead to another breakout star joining the bullpen. Credit goes to the entire pitching development staff, and the players for putting in the work necessary. With these guys anchoring the bullpen, the Brewers should feel very comfortable with a lead after six innings.

And if Counsell wants to spice things up, he can also turn to the anti-Hader, Brent Suter. Suter avoids giving up hard hit balls, doesn’t walk many batters, and is the funniest guy in baseball. Suter can start, or he can come out in relief. He is the swiss-army knife of the bullpen, and provides a great contrast to the usual hard throwers out in the ‘pen.

3. Christian Yelich 2021 Bounce Back Season

Christian Yelich is the team’s best player. He is also one of the best players in the league when everything is clicking for him. He has been locked in for the better part of the decade, and his metrics show he still is capable of being the elite player he was the past two seasons.

The 2020 offseason was especially odd, after suffering a broken knee cap that cut his 2019 season short, and then a cut short spring training, followed by a four month layoff, before finally starting to play again, a regular offseason should benefit Yelich.

Yelich kept hitting the ball hard, which while that’s not everything necessary to be successful, is helpful. In 2018 and 2019, average exit velocity had a stronger correlation with wRC+ than in 2020, which may be due to the season being only ⅓ the length. That is not an excuse, but more of an observation of what the numbers show.

Yelich still had issues last season, he took more pitches than he did in previous years, which caused him to fall behind in the count, which then may have led to overthinking and a loss of confidence.

Lorenzo Cain is also coming back in 2021, after opting out of the shortened season due to concerns regarding COVID-19. Having Cain back in the lineup may also help. Avisail Garcia had the most plate appearances lead off for the Brewers in 2020, and when he batted first, he slashed (.248/.303/.327). Bringing Cain back into the fold could provide a nice bolster to the offense, which may take some pressure off of Christian Yelich.

In order to be competitive in 2021, the Brewers need Christian Yelich to be his MVP-self, and despite his 2020 statistics, the underlying metrics indicate that is quite likely to happen.

5. David Stearns and the Rest of the Front Office

David Stearns is the mastermind behind Milwaukee’s resurgence. He has built a front office full of the best minds in baseball, newly minted General Manager Matt Arnold, and Director of Baseball Research and Development Dan Turkenkopf, to name a few. While his moves haven’t always worked out, he hits much more than he misses.

2020 was a funky season, and the shockwaves will still be felt in 2021. Stearns and the rest of the front office have their work cut out for them to fill the holes still present at first and third base. However, they consistently proven time and again that they know what they are doing, and they know how to build a team.

Not every player on the roster was acquired by Stearns, Brandon Woodruff and Devin Williams were drafted by Doug Melvin, Josh Hader and Adrian Houser were also acquired by Melvin. But, every player on the roster has a spot because there is something Stearns sees in them that can and will produce a winner in Milwaukee.

Stearns has to work quickly, as pitchers and catchers are due to report in approximately six weeks. We at Reviewing the Brew have given him plenty of ideas, so you know it’ll resolve itself well.

While Stearns is not likely to sign the big fish, the front office will look to bolster depth and give Counsell the tools needed to work his magic. With the Cubs rolling over and showing their belly to the rest of the division, the Brewers are the de facto favorites by virtue of who they didn’t lose.

At the end of the day, with Stearns and the rest of the front office, it is very easy to be confident that Milwaukee will find a way to make it back to the playoffs for a fourth straight season.