These Free Agent Additions Could Give Brewers Best Rotation In Baseball
There are still plenty of quality arms available in free agency in the starting pitching department and the Brewers might look at these names to bolster the back end of their rotation.
Brewers RHPs Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes are arguably one of the best 1-2 duos in baseball right now. An All-Star in 2019 and the pitcher tied for the most starts in the majors last year, Woodruff possesses ace-like stuff and the durability to make it through the season posting Cy Young type numbers.
Burnes, a great compliment to Woody, made the jump in 2020. He finished sixth in Cy Young voting and was a strikeout machine, averaging 13.3 K/9, good enough for third best in baseball. Now how much can we rely on the rest of the Milwaukee starters?
Adrian Houser is the projected third starter for the Crew as of right now. It was a season to forget for one of the trade pieces that came over from Houston in the trade that sent Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers to the Astros in 2015. If you remember, Josh Hader was also one of the players in that trade that the Brewers acquired, so how has Houser compared to Hader, his teammate of the last five-plus years?
Well, not great. In 2019, Houser posted a respectable 6-7 record with an ERA of 3.72, but last year was a struggle for the second year starter. Houser had the second-highest ERA of Brewers pitchers that took the mound for 15 innings or more (5.30). He also gave up the second-most home runs (8) on the staff behind Brandon Woodruff, who worked about 18 innings more.
There have been glimpses of brilliance for the 27 year old, but the Brewers need him to make those glimpses become more than just that in 2021.
Josh Lindblom is currently projected as the number four starter in Milwaukee for 2021. Lindblom was an interesting story entering last season as he was dominant in the KBO for the good part of five years. Lindblom had a decent 2020 campaign, going 2-4 with a 5.16 ERA and opposing hitters had an average .244 against him.
It’s nothing near the numbers he put up in Korea (40-10 record in his last three years) but he was tied for the third-most starts for the Brewers, proving to be a guy that’s ready every five days.
As of now, Eric Lauer rounds up the back end of the rotation for the Brewers. Lauer came to Milwaukee with Luis Urias from San Diego in the Trent Grisham and Zach Davies trade. He bounced back and forth from the main roster to the Brewers Alternate Training Site, but when he was on the bump for Craig Counsell, he struggled. He started two of the four games he appeared in and had a higher ERA than innings pitched (13.09 ERA in 11.0 IP).
The former first round draft pick had a fairly successful 2019 season, going 8-10 with a 4.45 ERA and 138 strikeouts with the Padres but was unable to get things on track in 2020 with the Crew. It’s hard to say what Lauer’s role will be with the Brewers this year, but the 25 year old lefty will greatly benefit from more reps and work with Milwaukee coaches.
But to make this rotation one of the best in baseball, the Brewers are going to need an outside addition. Who could somewhat realistically come in and take this rotation to the next level? Here are a few options.
Masahiro Tanaka
In seven years in Major League Baseball, Masahiro Tanaka has never had a losing season. Last year, he went .500 for the first time, but his ERA was the lowest since 2016.
Tanaka has never played for any club besides the Yankees but he’s testing free agency in hopes of finding a compatible club. The two-time All-Star is known for being a reliable arm in the rotation as five times in his career he has surpassed 150.0 innings pitched.
The 32 year old is entering the back half of his career but still possesses the stuff to be a successful pitcher in the MLB. The different style of pitcher that he is would be a nightmare for hitters after facing the likes of either Corbin Burnes or Brandon Woodruff.
Tanaka’s best pitch is his slider, which registered a 40% whiff rate and a putout rate of 30% in 2020. In contrast to the typical slider, his contains more of a 12-6 movement that clocks in at around 84 mph. In addition to his slider, he throws a splitter, four seam fastball, sinker and curveball.
Tanaka is one of the best in the business in terms of command, ranking in the top six percent of the MLB in walk percentage at a clip of 4.1% in 2020. And his 2020 command numbers weren’t an outlier either as five of his last six seasons he’s ranked in the top 10% of the league in walk percentage.
Total all of the characteristics that Masahiro Tanaka possesses and I believe he would thrive in the Brewers rotation. Now he may come at a bit of a hefty price as he had a base salary of $23MM last year in New York, but he would almost certainly see less than that in this free agent market and would have success in 2021 in a Brewers uniform.
Chris Archer
Chris Archer is primed for a bounce back season. Injuries have derailed the one time Tampa Bay Rays ace as recently as 2020, when he underwent thoracic outlet surgery.
This injury puts pressure on the arteries, veins and nerves in your upper chest and can even lead to numbness in the arm and hand. Some pitchers that have dealt with this aggravating injury are: Phil Hughes, Jaime Garcia, Chris Young and Chris Carpenter. But it appears that Archer is healthy again and is ready to contribute to a pitching staff.
Archer was acquired from the Rays by the Pirates in exchange for Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and promising prospect Shane Baz. Brewers fans, be glad you don’t root for the Pirates because that was a miserable trade for the Buccos.
But it was a tough hand to be dealt for Archer as he was sent to a year in and year out cellar dweller team in Pittsburgh and then the injuries hit. Now he’s there for the taking in the free agent market, but did he show enough in his time in the Steel City to be a good target for David Stearns and the rest of the front office?
I would argue yes. The Pirates had Archer add a sinker to his repertoire, but he really struggled throwing that pitch and eventually he scrapped the pitch altogether. After getting rid of the pitch, he saw his strikeout percentage rise and his walk percentage decline along with a better first-pitch strike rate.
He throws a four seam fastball which he heavily relies upon that clocks in around 94 mph and a slider that is thrown very hard and generates a high percentage of fly balls and whiffs, which comes in at about 89 mph. Other pitches Archer uses are a changeup and a curveball.
It’s difficult to predict if Archer can get back to his old self after his most recent surgery, but it’s not a very big risk to take if you’re the Brewers front office. He won’t be demanding much of a salary and if he can get close to the strikeout percentage that ranked him in 74th percentile in 2019, he could be a huge piece for pitching coach Chris Hook’s staff.
He’s as good of a bounce back candidate as any, should be relatively cheap, and if the Brewers can find his old form, Archer would be a fantastic addition.
Garrett Richards
The California native has spent almost all of his career in baseball in his home state. He started his MLB journey with the Angels after being drafted in the 1st round of the 2009 June Amateur Draft.
During the 2018 offseason he headed south to San Diego where he signed a two year deal worth around 15 million. Now he’s looking for a new home after a combined record of 2-3 with a 4.65 ERA in his time with the Padres. Richards started 10 games last season and actually had a nice bounce back year after getting Tommy John surgery in 2018 and missing the majority of the 2019 season as well.
Richards would potentially be the highest paid pitcher on the Brewers roster as he made an average base salary of about $7.75MM per year during his time with the Padres. While there are times that he struggles keeping the ball away from the barrel of hitters’ bats (22nd worst at 6.1%), he also has nasty movement on his pitches.
Richards’ spin rates on his fastball and curveball are elite. He ranks in the 97th percentile in fastball spin and the 99th percentile in curveball with only Lucas Sims of the Reds in front of him.
His go-to pitch is arguably a four seam fastball around 95 mph on average that pitching aficionados classify as a “worm killer” because of the sinking action it has on it’s way to the plate. He also throws a slider that he’s pretty good at keeping down in the zone, but won’t use too often.
Lastly, a ridiculous curveball. In 2020 his curveball had the highest revolutions per minute (RPM) at 3,343….. about 1,000 RPMs higher than the league average of 2,515. His pitches are having a dance party on the way to the plate. Good luck to hitters facing Richards in 2021.
Any one of these pitchers would make excellent additions to the Brewers rotation and could give this team the pitching it needs to dominate throughout a postseason.
Free agency has been moving slowly, but these guys will start signing at some point soon.